[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191154 
COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-191600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN CO...FAR SERN UT...AND FAR N-CENTRAL
NM...ABOVE 6500 FT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 191154Z - 191600Z

HEAVY SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND
ADJACENT AREAS ABOVE 6500 FT IN SWRN CO/SERN UT/N-CENTRAL NM.
SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG
SOUTH AND SW FACING SLOPES.

DOWNSTREAM OF STAGNANT UPPER LOW ALONG THE CA COAST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD AT 45KT ACROSS AZ EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SWLY SRN BRANCH FLOW. IR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE COOLING CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS NERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE.
EMBEDDED CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR/OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION AREA
APPEARS COINCIDENT WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF 65-70KT 500MB JET IN
RUC GUIDANCE. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD IMPACTING
THE DISCUSSION AREA BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW
REGIME SHOULD FAVOR SWWD FACING SLOPES WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. RUC AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...LIKELY ENHANCING
VERTICAL MOTION AND PROSPECTS FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SNOW ELEMENTS
AND ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDERSNOW. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
PERIODS OF 2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 19/21Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS REMAINING NEAR 6500 FT OVER MOST SECTIONS OF THE
SWRN CO/SERN UT THROUGH 21Z WITH SNOW LEVELS OF 7000-7500 FT ACROSS
FAR N-CENTRAL NM.

..BANACOS.. 02/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

37710645 37280622 36750609 36500616 36470650 36750711
37050743 37040846 37120957 37520964 37990938 38430899
38570856 38630809 38710759 38710717 38400690 38210675
37910656 

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