From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 13:16:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 08:16:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502011318.j11DIwZe021332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011317 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-011815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/W TX INTO NCNTRL TX/SRN OK CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 011317Z - 011815Z SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM W TX INTO PORTIONS OF NW TX AND EVENTUALLY SRN OK. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE LIKELY...WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-2"/HR. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ARE TAKING SHAPE THIS MORNING...AS NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONG LIFT HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS TX...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE WARM CONVEYOR CIRRUS EXTENDING INTO CNTRL/NERN OK. UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW OVER SONORA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING/AFTN...WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT LIKELY FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED BY MODELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM...AND LIKELY GUIDE IT ON A TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE / DUE TO THE FUJIWARA OR "DUMBBELLING" EFFECT/. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAS PRECIPITATION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS W TX...WITH A DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST OF WINK TO SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MIDLAND AND AMARILLO INDICATE THE EFFECTS OF DYNAMICAL COOLING SINCE THE 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE WARM LAYER NEAR 700MB ON BOTH SOUNDINGS HAS SINCE COOLED/MOISTENED...WITH A COMPLETELY SATURATED SOUNDING AT MIDLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO ANY INITIAL RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FORT WORTH AND NORMAN INDICATE SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT VIRGA WILL HELP SATURATE THE COLUMN. SHORT-TERM MODELS WILL BE TOO SLOW WITH THEIR QPF SOLUTION...AND LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH GIVEN RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. MODELS DO HOWEVER AGREE THAT SNOW RATES OF UP TO AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SETS UP THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST AROUND ABILENE/DFW METROPLEX WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS MORNING NEAR ABILENE AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR DFW. WITH ISOTHERMAL PROFILES AND A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...PERIOD OF MOD/HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN A SWATH FROM INK/DYS THIS MORNING...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 02/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 34390069 34090210 32000615 30890609 30230409 30650138 31299930 31649841 31959768 33079739 34009755 34419871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 22:03:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 17:03:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502012206.j11M64Wx002665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012204 TXZ000-OKZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX/FAR SRN OK CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 012204Z - 020100Z ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL LARGELY REMAIN PREDOMINANT PRECIP-TYPE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX INTO SRN OK...A RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO MDT/HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES/DURATION ON THE MESOSCALE. AT 22Z...MID/UPPER 30S SFC TEMPS AND MID 30S DEWPOINTS LARGELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL TX AND FAR SRN OK. 18Z FWD OBSERVED RAOB/18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE SHALLOW /SUB 1 KM/ WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. HOWEVER MELTING EFFECT /IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL COOLING/ MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO MDT/HEAVY SNOW COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES/DURATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS APPARENTLY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INVOF JCT /JUNCTION TX/. ..GUYER/GOSS.. 02/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32909719 32869717 31849777 31589843 31799929 32709940 33669942 34439916 34669845 34579785 34339742 33659698 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 01:18:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 20:18:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502020121.j121LPhA016950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020120 OKZ000-TXZ000-020415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NRN TX CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 020120Z - 020415Z ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY REMAIN PREDOMINATE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NRN TX...A CHANGE OVER TO MDT/POSSIBLY HVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED/HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATE AREAS ON THE MESOSCALE. SIMILAR TO VERY SHALLOW /APPROX 600 M/ ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN 00Z FWD RAOB...00Z OUN RAOB SUGGESTS INITIAL SHALLOW WARM LAYER UPON EFFECTIVE SATURATION. ACCORDINGLY AT 01Z...MESONET OBS DEPICT MID/UPPER 30S SFC TEMPS PERSISTING ACROSS SRN OK/FAR NRN TX. IN SPITE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF WARM AIR...MELTING EFFECT /IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL COOLING/ WILL PROMOTE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THE MOST SUSTAINED/HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATE AREAS. IN PRESENCE OF WEAK THERMAL ADVECTIONS...SUCH SFC TEMPERATURE DROPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH 01Z ACROSS TILLMAN/COMANCHE/GRADY COUNTIES OK BASED UPON MESONET TRENDS BENEATH SW-NE ORIENTED PRECIPITATION BAND/S. ..GUYER.. 02/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35219631 33989628 33509672 33459740 33629804 34119905 34629910 35069881 35559800 35629749 35549684 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 05:51:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 00:51:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502020554.j125sKRv028655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020553 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-021200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN OK...NWRN AR...SWRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 020553Z - 021200Z A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE THREAT AREA OVER EXTREME NERN OK/EXTREME NWRN AR/EXTREME SWRN MO BEGINNING FROM SW TO NE NEAR 09Z. INTENSIFYING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING JET STREAK AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH COOLER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCAL TRAPPED COOLER AIR WITHIN HIGHER TERRAIN TO SUPPORT LOCAL MODERATE SNOW. AREAS EXPERIENCING MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH TO ALL SNOW WITHIN MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION BANDS. NAM AND RUC FORECASTS BOTH SUGGEST MOST INTENSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE THREAT AREA AFTER 09Z. ETA MICROPHYSICS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW WITHIN THIS AREA OF MORE INTENSE FORCING. ..SCHNEIDER.. 02/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35889521 36239525 36559481 36739414 36759340 36619293 36319275 35909307 35799352 35689439 35689483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 12:33:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 07:33:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502021235.j12CZiMh016922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021234 MOZ000-021630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST WED FEB 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 021234Z - 021630Z MESOSCALE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD ECNTRL MO BY 16 UTC. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CNTRL OK EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS TOWARD SRN MO WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MESOSCALE BANDS OF LOCALIZED MODERATE SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP/CONTINUE IN THE THREAT AREA AS 700 MB CIRCULATION MOVES OVER MO/AR BORDER...PLACING WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE AND LOW MOIST POTENTIAL VORTICITY AROUND 700 MB OVER THE THREAT AREA PER 06 UTC NAM FORECAST. LATEST RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP SATURATED LAYER THROUGH DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH MODERATE ASCENT IN THE 800 MB TO 500 MB LAYER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING SUGGEST LOCALIZED MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS. ..BRIGHT.. 02/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... 36709423 37229374 37489333 37829217 37919111 37879057 37599049 37189114 36589314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 01:25:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 20:25:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502030128.j131S1ct014824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030127 VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-030600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CST WED FEB 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIANS OF NC CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 030127Z - 030600Z FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EXPECTED TO INCREASE INVOF NC APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05 IN/HR AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 00Z RUC IN ACCORDANCE WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTS INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY REMAINDER OF EVENING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD AIR REMAINS WEDGED OWING TO NE STATES HIGH PRESSURE...WITH E/NE TRAJECTORIES EVIDENT BELOW 1 KM IN GSP VAD. ACCORDINGLY 00Z RUC/18Z NAM SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SLEET AND/OR FZRA UPON EFFECTIVE SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING INVOF APPALACHIANS...AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER CONTINUES TO EXIST ABOVE SATURATING/SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BASED AROUND/ABOVE 700 MB...THUS CONVECTIVE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO EPISODIC AREAS OF HIGHER SLEET/FZRA RATES. ..GUYER.. 02/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC... 36578135 36438126 35988144 35528193 35028306 34918345 35038368 35368356 35548353 35878272 36158201 36658160 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 06:01:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 01:01:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502030604.j1364Ctx016168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030603 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-031200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN VA...EXTREME WRN NC...EXTREME ERN TN CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 030603Z - 031200Z WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH FREEZING RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN KY IN RUC ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED IN WV IMAGERY. DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CVA AND CONTINUED 700MB WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS DEEP ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. MOISTURE WITH PW ABOVE ONE HALF INCH IS BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON 35KT WINDS EVIDENT GSP VWP WITH NICE WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION VEERING PROFILE NEAR THE NOSE OF LLJ IN RLX VWP. COLDER TEMPERATURES WITHIN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ..SCHNEIDER.. 02/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX... 39098062 39348003 39097935 38207919 37158019 36258139 35418258 35758280 36248232 36908156 38008119 38588099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 12:52:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 07:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502031255.j13CtNao030811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031254 MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-031700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXT ERN WV/WRN VA/WRN MD CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 031254Z - 031700Z A MIX OF MODERATE SNOW OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE THREAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES OVER THE THREAT AREA WITH ONGOING SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 06 UTC NAM FORECAST SHOWS AREA OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 14 AND 17 UTC. ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION IS LIKELY WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS CVA INCREASES FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 15 AND 18 UTC IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE DRY LAYER WITH 12 UTC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGF. THUS...ROOM EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL WET BULB COOLING KEEPING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROZEN THROUGH 18 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 02/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX... 37688087 38137998 38877883 39547876 39647779 39127751 38067865 37157971 37038103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 05:52:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 00:52:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502040555.j145sxYQ020687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040554 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040554 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-041100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CT...CNTRL MA...SRN NH...EXTREME SRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 040554Z - 041100Z AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING OVER THE THREAT AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED RATES BRIEFLY APPROACHING ONE INCH AN HOUR BEFORE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER 09Z. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CURVATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BWI IN RADAR AND WV IMAGERY AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MID LEVEL ASCENT THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY WITH ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES OF OVER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR OBSERVED AT KGON IN A HEAVIER BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE SNOW AREA. NAM PHYSICS SCHEME PRODUCES ALL FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND HOURLY PRECIPITATION FROM 12KM NAM INDICATES PEAK RATES OF 6 TO 8 TENTHS PER HOUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY AROUND 11Z. STRONGEST RATES AND DURATION ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS IN MA AND NRN CT. LOW LEVEL ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN 00Z GYX AND OKX COMBINED WITH FRESHENING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF OVER SOUTHERN ME AND NH. THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION...NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND MODERATE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. ..SCHNEIDER.. 02/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...ALY... 41907300 42327291 42817250 43247171 43687094 43997030 43807005 43137075 42417158 41837236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 17:10:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 12:10:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502041713.j14HDPj0027063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041712 WAZ000-042315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WASHINGTON CASCADE MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 041712Z - 042315Z SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE STEADILY ACROSS THE CASCADE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG TROUGH/FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR NEAR SOME OF THE NRN CASCADE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOPS CONFIRM SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA INDICATING A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OVER WRN/CNTRL WA EARLY TODAY. LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND PUGET SOUND/BELLINGHAM AREA IN THE WAKE OF LEADING BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN CASCADE RANGE WERE ALREADY AROUND 3000 FEET...BUT RISE UP TO BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET FARTHER SOUTH AROUND SMP PER RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS. RUC AND ETA ARE FCSTG FREEZING LEVEL WILL DROP STEADILY THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THE CNTRL WA CASCADES AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADE RANGE COINCIDENT WITH THE FALLING SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE...LOW STATIC STABILITY...AND MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY WET SNOW AROUND PASS LEVEL THROUGH 05/00Z. ..CARBIN.. 02/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 48942004 47702080 46502133 46122167 46182209 46912179 47392158 48052152 48332150 48572162 48942194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 7 00:59:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 19:59:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502070102.j1712Kxh022267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070101 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-070600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN KS NEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 070101Z - 070600Z LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL KS NEWD TO NEAR DSM BY 06Z. FURTHER NORTH...A ZONE OF LIGHT-MOD SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NCENTRAL KS NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA. OVERALL LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 IN/HR. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 00Z EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR HUTCHINSON KS NEWD TO NEAR AMES IA. RECENT SWD MOTION OF THIS FRONT AVERAGED AROUND 10 MPH. THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM LAGGED THE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM 30-50 MILES IN KS TO AROUND 20 MILES IN IA. LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AIDED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS NEWD INTO CENTRAL IA THROUGH 06Z. THE 00Z TOP...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING...ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA INDICATE THAT A NARROW ZONE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR CENTERED BETWEEN 850-900 MB EXTENDS SW-NE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SWRN IA. AS THE SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SWD...THROUGH 06Z...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN A 30 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM HUT/GBD NEWD TO NEAR DSM. FARTHER NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR...A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT AND POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL NEB/NCENTRAL KS NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA. ..CROSBIE.. 02/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 41459380 40529542 39099694 38189787 37989832 38649924 40319834 41759530 42139407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 18:03:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 13:03:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502131806.j1DI6awK013565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131805 LAZ000-TXZ000-132000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131805Z - 132000Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WAS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER SE TX AND PARTS OF WRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTS OVERALL THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. INITIAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL IMPULSE/WIND MAX HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED ACROSS NWRN LA THROUGH LATE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN WEST AND NORTH OF HOU. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS /STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME/ BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA WAS SUGGESTING THAT WEAK SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION WILL BE OVERCOME WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF HEATING AND ALLOW STORM UPDRAFTS TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN BY TAPPING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG. UPSTREAM IMPULSE VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY OVER WEST TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WOULD SUGGEST A GRADUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..CARBIN.. 02/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29099519 28939640 29469678 30229656 31259643 31829628 32189568 32469420 31009349 29999349 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 18:50:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 13:50:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502131854.j1DIs3d0003594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131853 WIZ000-MNZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN WI AND E-CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 131853Z - 132300Z AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN WI AND E-CENTRAL MN. FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05"/HR ARE POSSIBLE. THROUGH 14/00Z...ELONGATED AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AND COINCIDENT DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD AT 10-15 KT THROUGH THE CENTRAL/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEFORMATION ZONE IS LOCATED ON NRN FRINGE OF WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH AND NE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN MO. ANTECEDENT AIR MASS HAS BEEN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN MN SEWD TO SRN WI. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS E-CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL/NRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH OVER ERN ONTARIO SHOULD ALLOW WET BULB TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN AND ISOLATED SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSH TO EAU TO STC BEGINNING AROUND 13/21Z. MARGINAL GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT ICING TO ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL WI/E-CENTRAL MN WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY OF GROUND-BASED ICING ACROSS NRN WI AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS NWD TOWARD 14/00Z. ..BANACOS.. 02/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44519006 44939144 45619365 45859393 46259393 46709366 46869338 46779263 46319110 45979017 45618946 45338878 45028815 44758787 44338761 43998768 43868802 44118874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 23:05:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 18:05:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502132309.j1DN942C025341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132307 LAZ000-TXZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX AND EXTREME WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132307Z - 140100Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH ABOUT 14/02Z...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF DIFFUSE SFC WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE. THIS BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z NEAR A CRP-CLL-PRX LINE AND WILL MOVE EWD 15-20 KT ACROSS E TX. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL TOWERS GLACIATING JUST E OF CLL...AND OTHER SMALLER TCU NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY TO NEAR TYR. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG W EDGE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...AND IN ZONE OF VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. PROFILER DATA NEAR CLL/PAT...HGX VWP DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS ALL SUGGEST WLY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE NEAR BOUNDARY AND ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN ADJACENT MOIST SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONG MIDLEVEL DPVA AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH ARE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES INVOF WIND SHIFT ZONE...AND COMBINING WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO YIELD AROUND 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF COOLING ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TSTMS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30909402 30059484 29759578 29959640 30279654 30719631 32689451 32649391 31939348 31129385 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 00:19:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 19:19:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502140023.j1E0N4i7024779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140022 MIZ000-140615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 140022Z - 140615Z MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 03Z. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS OF LOWER MI. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS SRN LOWER MI BY 06Z...AND INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS BY 09Z. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NERN MO AT 14/00Z WILL TRACK NEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 14/09Z. A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL OH. DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE MARKED BY A LEADING DEFORMATION ZONE PROGRESSING SLOWLY NNEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA AT 10-15 KT. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NRN IL...NRN IND...AND SRN LOWER MI IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. VAD WIND PROFILES AT GRR AND IWX INDICATE STRONG VEERING AND SLY 1 KM FLOW OF 45-50 KT. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE MUCH OF THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MI ARE COLDER AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SNOW OR SLEET DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...INCREASING ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 900-750MB SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INITIALLY BETWEEN 10-15F SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE DIABATIC COOLING AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. ICING MAY BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL MI WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING BUT WILL LIKELY INCLUDE GROUND SURFACES ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WHERE THE COLDEST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS EXIST /TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S/. GUIDANCE FROM RUC AND NAM GENERALLY SUPPORT HOURLY FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.1". ..BANACOS.. 02/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42788460 43188628 43798657 45018606 45698501 45508401 45138328 44238287 43668256 42918254 42688283 42668358 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 05:48:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 00:48:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502140551.j1E5p9nN009430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140550 MIZ000-141045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 140550Z - 141045Z EXPECT MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD NWD FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI AND THUMB ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...EXTREME ERN UPPER MI...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS LH/LM...THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z. SNOW RATES 2 INCH/HR ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES. MEANWHILE...40-60 NM WIDE ZONE OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS EVIDENT AT 530Z IN SNOW-RAIN TRANSITION ZONE BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY THE LINE MBL...MKG...MTC...ARB... JXN...MBL. THIS MIXED PRECIP ZONE WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS THUMB...SAGINAW BAY...HTL AND TVC AREAS DURING SAME PERIOD. FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND .10-.25 INCH/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SRN PORTION OF THIS TRANSITION ZONE SHOULD PASS N OF MTC...FNT...LAN AND GRR AREAS BY ABOUT 08Z...ENDING SFC ICING AS RAIN CONTINUES. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE SFC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER MI -- PARTICULARLY IN 850 700 MB LAYER -- COINCIDING WITH EWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM CENTRAL/SERN LOWER MI NEWD ACROSS LH. AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/WRN LOWER MI CONTINUES TO SATURATE...SFC EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE MINIMIZED...THEN OFFSET BY COMBINATION OF WAA AND SENSIBLE HEATING DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER RAIN FALLING FROM ABOVE. THEREFORE EXPECT FREEZING LINE TO DRIFT NWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI...ACCOMPANIED BY CHANGE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN. HOWEVER...TRANSITION TO RAIN WILL BE MUCH SLOWER OVER ERN LOWER MI...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY ADVECTION FROM ONT WILL DELAY WARMING OF WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND CONTRIBUTE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS RAIN FALLS INTO LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 02/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT... 42428268 42268371 42538465 43388619 44388693 45228642 46468549 46848494 46808478 46628464 46498458 46448449 46478445 46488440 46478427 46418418 46388416 46318413 46248411 46178405 46098397 46068389 46088382 46138372 46098355 46028348 45938347 45858351 45718345 45448303 44508235 43838219 43148233 43008240 42918245 42858247 42818246 42758247 42708248 42648251 42578258 42498268 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 18:08:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 13:08:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502141811.j1EIBB1Z009556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141809 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NRN NY...WRN MA...AND VT CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 141809Z - 150015Z A FAST-MOVING TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NY...WRN MA...AND VT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THREAT EXISTS FOR FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN NY AND PORTIONS OF VT. AT 18Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER /995MB/ CONTINUES TO TRACK NNEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SHOULD REACH JAMES BAY BY 06Z. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A RATHER COMPLEX STRUCTURE TO THE ASSOCIATED FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRONOUNCED DRYING NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED BY THE RUC TO AQUIRE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION BY 15/00Z. RESULT WILL BE MARKED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH SLY 850MB WINDS OF 70-75 KTS ACROSS ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THE PREVAILING DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULT IN A MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION ZONE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. INITIAL SURGE OF WARM SURFACE AIR APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS WRN PA/WRN NY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS ERN NY/WRN MA AND ESPECIALLY VT. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANGE FROM SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AT GFL AND RUT AROUND 23Z...WITH SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN ALONG A LINE FROM SLK TO MPV AROUND 02Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN CT RIVER VALLEY/NERN VT THROUGH 03Z. PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN THE N-S ORIENTED HUDSON AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. HOWEVER...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD PERSIST IN MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN NY AND VT THROUGH 03Z. ..BANACOS.. 02/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42787273 42407294 42217312 42217337 42317392 42507431 42817460 43067487 43347505 43647508 43877508 44357501 44747492 45007483 44967407 45027294 45037201 44977158 44627157 44467169 44337199 43367249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 18:53:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 13:53:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502151856.j1FIuhvU016065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151855 MIZ000-152300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 151855Z - 152300Z RAIN WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW NEAR 21Z OVER SWRN MI...AND WILL CHANGE TO HEAVY WET SNOW OVER THE REMAINING AREA AROUND 00Z. LOCAL SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR MAY MATERIALIZE BY 00Z. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE ALONG W-E ORIENTAL FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UVVS WITHIN 600-550 MB LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT AND PROLONGED PRODUCTION OF DENDRITES ALOFT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 18Z...COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND COOLING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. ..JEWELL.. 02/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 42488315 42438355 42348468 42308630 42678622 42948621 43148504 43278411 43628257 43258254 43018238 42798250 42558285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 19:45:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502151948.j1FJmHVg024246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151947 COR MIZ000-152300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 151947Z - 152300Z RAIN WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW NEAR 21Z OVER W-CNTRL MI...AND WILL CHANGE TO HEAVY WET SNOW OVER THE REMAINING AREA AROUND 00Z. LOCAL SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR MAY MATERIALIZE BY 00Z. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE ALONG W-E ORIENTAL FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UVVS WITHIN 600-550 MB LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT AND PROLONGED PRODUCTION OF DENDRITES ALOFT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 18Z...COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND COOLING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. ..JEWELL.. 02/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 42488315 42438355 42348468 42308630 42678622 42948621 43148504 43278411 43628257 43258254 43018238 42798250 42558285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 21:23:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 16:23:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502152126.j1FLQZvt006737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152125 ILZ000-MOZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL TO E CENTRAL MO AND SW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152125Z - 152330Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 22-23Z ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR TBN TO NEAR STL. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WHILE SPREADING EWD INTO IL...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT AS OF 20Z FROM NEAR THE COLD FRONT/REMNANT LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION ENEWD TO NEAR STL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S THIS AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50 F...RESULTING IN UNCAPPED PROFILES WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 750 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. ..THOMPSON.. 02/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 38439175 38869061 39408991 39498940 39258901 38708885 37848986 37189120 36999206 37309258 37629255 37999223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 12:44:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 07:44:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502161248.j1GCm70B011760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161247 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-161645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA/WRN THROUGH NERN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 161247Z - 161645Z ...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NY AND SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NERN NY THIS MORNING WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH... SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE NEAR BFD SWWD TO AGC/PKB WITH A WARM FRONT NEWD ACROSS SERN NY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IN/IL APPROACHES THE AREA. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NY AFTER 15Z. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING FROM GKJ/BUF...WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES OBSERVED AT BUF. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BANDING OF SNOW THIS MORNING. ISOLD LTG FROM THE NLDN AND IN THE DKK OBSERVATION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF SNOW BANDS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/ROC/IAG INDICATE PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE ISOTHERMAL WITH TIME WITH STRONG LIFT CONCENTRATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN NY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO CNTRL NY AND NRN VT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 02/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 45077376 44807532 43437887 42008026 41568022 41317865 41467717 43367453 44337339 44547324 44947328 45047348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 20:26:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 15:26:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502182029.j1IKTjpf026628@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182028 CAZ000-182230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 182028Z - 182230Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR/EAST OF THE COASTAL RANGES... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO/SACRAMENTO/FRESNO. SOME MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES...FROM THE SANTA MARIA AREA NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS... BENEATH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH/EAST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AREA... AND INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL RANGES WILL AID FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL SOMEWHAT ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 02/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 37712220 38182157 37892085 37242001 36751981 36341977 35701984 35412022 35752069 36382155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 11:51:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 06:51:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191154.j1JBsxSN000474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191154 COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-191600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN CO...FAR SERN UT...AND FAR N-CENTRAL NM...ABOVE 6500 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191154Z - 191600Z HEAVY SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND ADJACENT AREAS ABOVE 6500 FT IN SWRN CO/SERN UT/N-CENTRAL NM. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH AND SW FACING SLOPES. DOWNSTREAM OF STAGNANT UPPER LOW ALONG THE CA COAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD AT 45KT ACROSS AZ EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY SRN BRANCH FLOW. IR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE. EMBEDDED CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR/OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION AREA APPEARS COINCIDENT WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF 65-70KT 500MB JET IN RUC GUIDANCE. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD IMPACTING THE DISCUSSION AREA BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD FAVOR SWWD FACING SLOPES WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. RUC AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...LIKELY ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION AND PROSPECTS FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SNOW ELEMENTS AND ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDERSNOW. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF 2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 19/21Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS REMAINING NEAR 6500 FT OVER MOST SECTIONS OF THE SWRN CO/SERN UT THROUGH 21Z WITH SNOW LEVELS OF 7000-7500 FT ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL NM. ..BANACOS.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... 37710645 37280622 36750609 36500616 36470650 36750711 37050743 37040846 37120957 37520964 37990938 38430899 38570856 38630809 38710759 38710717 38400690 38210675 37910656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 12:51:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 07:51:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191254.j1JCsMD5001648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191253 CAZ000-191500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...L.A. BASIN AREA OF SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191253Z - 191500Z ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE FROM CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO FORM INVOF ERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND MOVE ASHORE COASTAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT THREAT TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS ORANGE...SERN L.A. AND EXTREME NWRN SAN DIEGO COUNTIES THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS. OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...AND BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER LOCATED OVER PACIFIC APPROXIMATELY 100 SW LAX AS OF 1230Z. AS THIS FEATURE APCHS...LOW-MIDLEVEL GRADIENT FLOW IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS REGION PER VWP TRENDS...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BOUNDARY LAYER RESPONSE HAS ENLARGED 0-1 AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS ALSO. EXPECT 75-125 J/KG SRH THROUGH 0-1 KM AGL LAYER TO BE MAINTAINED UNTIL VORT LOBE MOVES ASHORE AT APPROXIMATELY 15Z. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SLIGHTLY IN MIDLEVELS AS WELL...YIELDING MUCAPES UP TO 400 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. STORM SCALE ROTATION ALREADY APPARENT WITH CELLS NEAR ERN CATALINA AND SAN CLEMENTE ISLANDS MAY INTENSIFY BECAUSE OF FRICTIONAL/CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS THEY MOVE INLAND...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER S MAY FOLLOW SIMILAR MORPHOLOGY AS WELL AS ENTIRE REGIME SHIFTS EWD. ..EDWARDS.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX... 32581871 33521841 34061812 34131779 34061746 33501739 33181747 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 16:57:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 11:57:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191700.j1JH0TIL003196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191659 CAZ000-191900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA COASTAL AREAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191659Z - 191900Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST NEAR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THREAT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST ONSET OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL NOT OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN WATERS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. AS LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THREAT FOR STRONGER CELLS MOVING ASHORE MAY SHIFT FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE LOS ANGELES AREA INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SAN DIEGO. THOUGH CAPE IS GENERALLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS...MODERATELY STRONG AND VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ROTATION. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND SOME HAIL...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH WITH INCREASING INHIBITION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 33721818 33641768 33361733 32931714 32591721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 18:15:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 13:15:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191818.j1JIInqn021819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191817 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV...SE CA...WRN AZ CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 191817Z - 192045Z LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...AND MID- LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR NEEDLES CA/KINGMAN AZ AREAS...AND REMAINING INHIBITION LIKELY WILL WEAKEN WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME. ISOLATED CELLS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL WHICH MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 35911560 36291459 36251347 35611249 34521240 33461250 32981317 33021359 33651414 33661466 34071521 34971572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 18:51:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 13:51:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191854.j1JIscA3025053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191853 COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW CO/NRN NM/EXTREME SE UT MTNS ABOVE 6500 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191853Z - 192300Z HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SE UT/SW CO/NRN NM MTNS ABOVE 6500-7000 FT. RATES OF 2 IN/HR OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8000 FT/ WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6500-7000 FT AT 18Z...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OBSERVED AT DRO BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. HEAVY SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED AT CPW /10K FT/ OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF MINORING CA TROUGH...DYNAMIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT INTO SW FACING SLOPES OWING TO 40-60 KT MID LEVEL JET. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM OR GREATER WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW. 12Z NAM/15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... 37650631 37280622 36800617 36410615 36280654 36340741 37020778 37290856 37480909 37660943 38040953 38520917 38750852 38840822 38750735 38500706 38250682 37910656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 23:20:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 18:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502192323.j1JNNvAH013144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192322 AZZ000-CAZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OF FAR ERN CA/SW AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192322Z - 200045Z THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10/8 CORRIDORS. ON PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN CA...MATURING CLOUD TOPS/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICT STRENGTHENING/ORGANIZING TSTMS IN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 W/SW OF BLH. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IN THE VALLEY IS CHARACTERIZED MID/UPPER 60S F TEMPS WITH MID/UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 750-1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES BENEATH 40-50 KTS OF W/SW MID LEVEL FLOW /PER AREA VWPS/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. ..GUYER.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32841545 34121535 34791473 34931396 34611327 33971293 32841312 32621335 32551436 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 01:35:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 20:35:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502200138.j1K1cdbk019388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200137 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/NE SD AND SRN/WCNTRL MN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 200137Z - 200530Z SNOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SE ND/NE SD INTO MUCH OF SRN/WCNTRL MN THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE. FZRA/SLEET TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AND EXPAND EWD IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN WY/WRN SD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...INCREASING 850-700 MB WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME TO CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE ND/NE SD AND WCNTRL/SRN MN THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE UVVS/DENDRITIC PROFILES...18Z NAM/21Z RUC PORTRAY INCREASING PRESENCE OF WEAK STABILITY/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT THROUGH THE EVENING...SUGGESTING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED BANDING AND 1 IN/HR SNOW RATES. WITH CONTINUAL ADVECTION OF ELEVATED WARM LAYER AS SAMPLED IN 00Z OAX/00Z ABR RAOBS...18Z NAM/21Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SLEET AND/OR FZRA MAY BECOME MORE BECOME MORE PREVALENT/SPREAD EWD IN A CORRIDOR FROM ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ..GUYER.. 02/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46540000 46719815 46499554 45769419 44819299 43909261 43429312 43599650 43909740 45089927 45490052 46230078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 06:08:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 01:08:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502200611.j1K6BMPr007059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200610 WIZ000-MNZ000-201015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL MN...AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 200610Z - 201015Z AXIS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WI DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES TO 1"/HR ARE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL...EMBEDDED BANDS. AT 05Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN NEB PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS SERN SD...FAR SRN MN...AND ACROSS SRN WI. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT...WITH FOCUSED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN 800-600MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI. APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. ADDITIONALLY...RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASINGLY DEEP/SATURATED DENDRITE GROWTH /-12C TO -16C/ LAYERS WHICH SHOULD MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 1"/HR IN A BAND FROM MSP SEWD TO BETWEEN LSE/EAU AND TO MKE/OSH AREA. SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LESS NORTH OF A BRD TO GRB LINE...WHERE SUPPLY OF LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR WILL CAUSE SUBLIMATION OF SNOWFALL AND A SHARP NRN EDGE TO HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ..BANACOS.. 02/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR... 42778750 43639109 44669439 45209628 45889641 46349607 46089391 44979039 44228824 43938753 43408753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 11:59:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 06:59:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502201202.j1KC2EE7026564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201201 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-201700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WI...AND CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 201201Z - 201700Z AXIS OF PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 18Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES IN A 40-50NM WIDE BAND FROM BETWEEN EAU/LSE TO BETWEEN MKE/SBM TO FNT/ARB VICINITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER MI BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. ONGOING WARM-ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS JUST NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN MN ACROSS SRN WI AND NEAR THE BORDER OF MI AND IND/OH. SYNOPTIC UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD INTO WRN MN AND A FAST MOVING SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA. THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION/SCATTERED CG LIGHTNING AS OF 1150Z...AND SHOULD LEAD TO MORE VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS MORNING. A MARKED INCREASE IN UVV AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT IS EVIDENT IN RUC/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILES AT CHICAGO AND INDIANAPOLIS...WITH SLY 0-1KM WINDS AROUND 40KT. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BEGIN A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 18-21Z. TO THE NORTH...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOCUSED ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL LESSENING OF SNOW RATES EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI. ..BANACOS.. 02/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44278796 43508457 42878258 42578279 41818331 41818493 41988662 43198945 43639109 43809179 44179238 45079274 45459187 44979039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 00:59:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 19:59:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210102.j1L12fat003056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210101 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-210500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA AND SW/SCNTRL NY CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 210101Z - 210500Z MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN NY AND CNTRL/ERN PA THIS EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. SNOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FZRA/SLEET ACROSS WCNTRL PA PRIOR TO 06Z. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD OVER LWR MI/SW ONTARIO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL CONTINUALLY SPREAD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF SW NY AND NRN/CNTRL PA EXPECTED TO INTENSITY THROUGH 03Z-06Z AS INCREASING UVVS COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER. FURTHERMORE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /600-800 MB/ COINCIDENT WITH WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY -- INCLUDING RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN WCNTRL PA -- SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW RATES WITH EMBEDDED NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS. 00Z PIT RAOB FEATURED 6.9 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. ACROSS WCNTRL PA...ELEVATED 700-850 MB WARM LAYER SEEN IN 00Z PIT RAOB WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SHALLOW/BELOW 1 KM FREEZING LAYER. ACCORDINGLY 18Z NAM/21Z RUC/09Z SREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO FZRA/SLEET IN 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME WITHIN DUJ/PSB/AOO CORRIDOR. ..GUYER.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... 43297812 42677619 41937512 40597541 39867641 39717782 39877855 40777933 41287975 42057971 42597933 43067886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 02:49:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 21:49:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210252.j1L2qRGB004327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210251 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-210445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN MO / EXTREME ERN OK / NRN AND CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210251Z - 210445Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SRN MO...AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN AR. PARTS OF AR ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WEAKLY-ROTATING / MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN MO...FROM HOWELL COUNTY MO WSWWD TO CARROLL COUNTY AR. THIS LINE SHOULD PERSIST / SAG SLOWLY SWD INTO MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SWD. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE ACROSS WRN AR...ALL WITHIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE / CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN KS / NWRN OK. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AS QG FORCING STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ACT TO PARTIALLY OFFSET SEVERE THREAT -- AT LEAST IN TERMS OF DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN AR...AND ITS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED MARGINAL HAIL / WIND THREAT -- WOULD LIKELY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 36229431 36829144 36499110 35509123 34399286 34319411 34489445 35189468 36009481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 05:19:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 00:19:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210522.j1L5MtW6024722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210522 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210522 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-210715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK INTO NRN AND CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19... VALID 210522Z - 210715Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NRN AND CNTRL AR THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHER STORMS NOW OVER N CNTRL OK MAY STRENGTHEN/SPREAD E INTO NE OK AND NRN AR LATER TONIGHT. WW 19 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NE OK AND NE AR. A FEW SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NRN AND CNTRL AR THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IN ZONE OF WEAK CONFLUENCE/INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO NE AR DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. FARTHER W...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER N CNTRL OK TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NE PART OF THE STATE...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX/UVV FIELD ENCOUNTERS SURFACE FRONT NOW BECOMING STNRY OVER REGION. GIVEN 50+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/...THE ISOLATED AR STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY FARTHER W MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS STORM GUST FRONTS CONTINUE TO MERGE AND ACCELERATE EWD. ..CORFIDI.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 36709522 36689618 36299639 35729640 35169597 34659491 34469348 34629115 34889031 35868974 36539007 36669345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 06:07:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 01:07:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210610.j1L6A43V015380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210609 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-211015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MA...CT...RI...SRN NH...SRN VT...ERN/SERN NY...NERN PA...AND NRN NJ CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 210609Z - 211015Z WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN/SERN NY...NERN PA...AND NRN NJ WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY SNOW...THOUGH SOME MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF NRN NJ/LONG ISLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK. AT 0530Z...STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF PRIMARY 1006MB LOW OVER SERN MI WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO ALONG AN AXIS FROM ALB TO ACK BY 21/15Z. PHASING OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE WITH TROUGH TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN ENTRAINMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THE PRE-EXISTING ARCTIC HIGH OVER NRN ME HAS ESTABLISHED FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY FAST MOTION OF SYSTEM AND 50-60KT 850MB FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO BAROCLINIC ZONE. PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY VERY DEEP...SATURATED DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER /-12C TO -16C/ WHICH IS EVIDENT IN RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NY INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INITIAL DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OVERCOME RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. SOME MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION IS OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHES INTO ARCTIC RIDGE ACROSS ME/NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SHOULD ACT TO QUICKEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING. ANTICIPATE A RATHER UNIFORM AND WIDESPREAD REGION OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SECONDARY PRESSURE FALL CENTER OF 2.5MB/2HR IS NOTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA WHERE SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS SECONDARY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE TOWARD DAYBREAK EAST OF NJ. LOW-LEVEL ELY/SELY ONSHORE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ALONG THE COAST OF NRN NJ/LONG ISLAND CAUSING A LOCALIZED MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN TOWARD 12Z. ..BANACOS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 41196980 40577205 40347433 40597515 41177569 41717583 42367589 42847567 43187512 43167307 43107139 42937049 42256971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 08:08:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 03:08:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210811.j1L8BmSJ008305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210810 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-210945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...WRN TN...MO BOOTHEEL...EXTREME NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...20... VALID 210810Z - 210945Z BOW ECHO MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 55 KT ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN AR MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL AS IT CROSSES OZARKS OF NRN AR. 46 KT GUST REPORTED AT SFC STATION SLG...44 KT AT XNA. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NEAR SEARCY/NEWTON COUNTY LINE IN ANOTHER HOUR WHEN WW 19 EXPIRES. WW 19 MAY NEED LOCAL EXTENSION OR REPLACEMENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS...COVERING N-CENTRAL AR COUNTIES IN ITS PATH FROM NEWTON EWD. MUCAPES 1500-1800 J/KG INDICATED OVER REGION WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT SHIFTING EWD WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY ACROSS NRN AR...ALONG WEAK E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY LEFT BY EARLIER CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL -- AN INCH OR LESS DIAMETER -- HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM ACTIVITY NOW CROSSING SEVERAL COUNTIES OF WRN TN BETWEEN MEM-DYR. THESE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD 30-35 KT TOWARD N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW ANALYZED INVOF HAYWOOD/MADISON COUNTY LINE...JUST W MKL. ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURE WITH INTERMITTENT EMBEDDED ELEMENTS OF CYCLONIC SHEAR...A MORPHOLOGY WHICH GENERALLY SHOULD CONTINUE AND WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW-END SEVERE HAIL. TSTMS ARE MOVING EWD FASTER THAN WARM FRONT AND WILL ROSS IT INVOF MKL. SOME BRIEF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 10-20 NM E OF SFC WARM FRONT...WHERE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE ELEVATED MUCAPE 1800 J/KG NEAR MKL...TRENDING TO NEAR 1300 J/KG AROUND BNA. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OHX...HUN...PAH... 34369449 36499448 36529137 34369136 34669138 36419141 36488802 34728803 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 10:08:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 05:08:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211011.j1LABJjk001730@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211010 CAZ000-211315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA INCLUDING WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 211010Z - 211315Z PLUME OF MDT AND EMBEDDED HEAVY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN ORANGE AND SWRN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND SPREAD INLAND PORTIONS WRN SAN DIEGO AND EXTREME WRN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. RAIN RATES COMMONLY AROUND 1-1.5 INCH/HOUR ARE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES/HOUR OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE INDICATED IN VWP FROM NKX...INCLUDING DEEP 30-40 KT LLJ THAT WILL MAXIMIZE LIFT AND RAINFALL OVER STEEPEST FACING SLOPES. MODIFIED 00Z NKX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERE...CHARACTERIZED BY .75-1 INCH PW. ALSO...MUCAPES 100-200 J/KG NEAR COASTLINE WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO RAIN RATES...INCLUDING A FEW TSTMS. ACCORDINGLY...SEVERAL CG LTG STRIKES HAVE BEEN INDICATED S OF SAN CLEMENT ISLAND AND W SAN DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS...IN OFFSHORE PORTION OF PRECIP PLUME. AS BAROCLINIC BAND ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD...SO WILL PRECIP PLUME...CAUSING THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS TO COVER MORE OF REGION FROM SAN NWD OVER WRN RIVERSIDE COUNTY. VWP HODOGRAPH INDICATES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR LOW-TOP SUPERCELLS...GIVEN SHAPE/DEPTH OF RUC-DERIVED CAPE PROFILES. SRH IN 0-1 KM IS OVER 200 J/KG GIVEN RIGHT-MOVING CELL. HOWEVER...WHILE NOT ZERO...TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOWER THAN TWO MORNINGS AGO BECAUSE OF LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE FOR SUSTAINED STORM SCALE ROTATION -- EMBEDDED INSTEAD OF DISCRETE CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 33591789 33911772 34281757 34311716 34041687 33481683 32541688 32541714 32641785 33371797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 10:27:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 05:27:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211030.j1LAUkjm011820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211029 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-211230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...EXTREME NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20...21... VALID 211029Z - 211230Z ONE OR BOTH WWS MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY 12Z WITH A NEW SEVERE TSTM WW BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND FAVORABLE INFLOW AIR MASS. SEVERE TSTM LINE...WITH EMBEDDED BOW AND LEWP FORMATIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD 50-55 KT...LOCALLY FASTER NEAR APEX OF BOWS. WIND DAMAGE IS MAIN THREAT WITH SPORADIC LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY CROSSES REMAINDER WW 19 AND ENTERS WRN PORTION WW 20. THIS LINE MAY BACKBUILD FAR ENOUGH S TO AFFECT EXTREME NRN MS...SO UNTIL LINE PASSES OR WW REPLACEMENT IS NECESSARY...MS PORTION WW 20 SHOULD BE KEPT VALID AS WELL. WW 19...MEANWHILE...CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND MCS. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN AR CONVECTION AND SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED AT 10Z ROUGHLY N-S THROUGH MKL. IN THIS WEDGE OF WARM SECTOR AIR...MUCAPE 1300-1800 J/KG IS INDICATED...BASED ON RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. VWP INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE...CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VEERING BUT 40-50 KT VECTOR SHEAR THROUGH 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 34669138 36419141 36488802 34728803 35259314 36539310 36479093 35209099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 11:11:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 06:11:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211114.j1LBEbSp002523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211113 KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-211315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22... VALID 211113Z - 211315Z SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS WW WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER WRN TN IN WARM SECTOR AND MOVE INTO WW AS WELL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ALIGNED N-S THROUGH MKL AREA...THEN CURVING SEWD ACROSS NRN AL NEAR HSV. ACTIVITY IN WW WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE...PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AIR MASS ABOVE WARM FRONTAL LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 1200 J/KG NEAR AND W OF BNA...TO AROUND 600 J/KG INVOF CSV. 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NOTED THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF CAPE BEARING LAYER. EXPECT GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AND LESSENING OF POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...BUT OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR E AS CSV. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35008802 36328800 36688501 35418500 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 13:48:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 08:48:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211351.j1LDpeNL006906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211350 ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-211445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN AND MID TN...NERN AR...EXTREME NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22...23... VALID 211350Z - 211445Z PRONOUNCED BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD 50-60 KT FROM NWRN TN INTO NRN MID TN. TRAILING LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION EXTENDS SWWD TO MS/TN BORDER AND MAY BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME NRN MS. CONTINUE PRECONVECTIVE PORTIONS WW UNTIL SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OR PASSAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER. NERN MS...MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW DURING NEXT HOUR. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT FROM NEAR ANB NWWD TO ABOUT 50 N MSL. NRN BOWING SEGMENT WILL OUTRUN WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STABLE LAYER NE OF WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE GETTING MORE SHALLOW BASED ON REGIONAL VWP...RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z BNA RAOB. BROAD REAR-INFLOW JET IS EVIDENT JUST BEHIND BOW...CHARACTERIZED BY 50-70 KT FLOW IN 7-10 KFT AGL LAYER. THEREFORE...PRIND POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC ACROSS BNA AREA...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E OF BNA AND OVER DEEPER STABLE LAYER. FARTHER SW...CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO BEING SFC BASED WITH MUCAPES 1300-1700 J/KG AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH FLOW IS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH DEEP LAYER...STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP INDICATE UP TO 70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDMORNING OVER NERN MS...NRN AL AND MID TN. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND LINE BECAUSE OF STABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL CAA. THEREFORE WWS CAN BE CLEARED NW OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...MRX...LMK... 34339086 36399090 36578802 34578805 35008804 36348802 36708504 35378501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 14:36:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 09:36:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211439.j1LEdRJi016476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211438 CAZ000-211645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0838 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211438Z - 211645Z ROTATING CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO SRN CA THIS MORNING. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH A TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AREA MAY NEED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LATER THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CELL INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN SRN CA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE 12Z SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWS VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES JUST ABOVE 300 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX... 32621715 33431768 34031864 34271974 34592003 34891957 34661790 33911683 32881651 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 16:50:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 11:50:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211653.j1LGrqQP021469@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211652 NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-211845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN TN...WRN NC..NRN GA...NE AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 24... VALID 211652Z - 211845Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO CONTINUES EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN AS THE LINE OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TO ESE FROM SW TN TO NW GA. THE BOW ECHO IS MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 55 KT JUST AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL JET OF 70 KT PUNCHING EWD THROUGH TN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE SRN PART OF THE BOW ECHO...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE OUTRUNS THE SOURCE OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...SOME WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...A MINIMAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT. ANY WIND DAMAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS THE LINE CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34408678 35228486 35938416 36378351 36158281 35408256 34548354 33828534 33848654 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 18:15:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 13:15:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211818.j1LIIJce004504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211817 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN...NRN AL...FAR NE MS...NW GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211817Z - 212015Z CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NRN GA...SRN TN EXTENDING WWD TO NE MS. AS THE CELLS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT WW WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL STORMS. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34848907 35138747 34938505 34438219 34048137 33558194 33618510 33758654 34258861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 20:46:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:46:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212049.j1LKnSRO003071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212048 CAZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 25... VALID 212048Z - 212215Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN WW 25 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AN UPPER-LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE CA COAST. A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON SUSTAINING STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING IN THE LA BASIN. IN ADDITION...REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 22Z SHOW ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR MINI SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP CREATE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS ROTATING CELLS STRENGTHEN AND MATURE MOVING NWD ACROSS THE LA BASIN. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX... 32621771 33861887 34341931 34491880 34411797 33341710 32661655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 21:45:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 16:45:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212148.j1LLmiVO024557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212147 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...NCNTRL GA...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26... VALID 212147Z - 212345Z A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN GA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN TN INTO NRN GA. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS OF 70 TO 75 F ACROSS NRN MS...NRN AL INTO NCNTRL GA IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER TN IS ENHANCING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS NEAR THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IN NRN AL AND FAR NW GA WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32688178 32848246 33238416 33438812 33578946 34378988 34738891 34638532 34528350 33318106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 21:51:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 16:51:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212154.j1LLsOxd029541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212153 CAZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212153Z - 220000Z TSTMS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST RANGES WEST OF I5...AND AROUND SFO AND THE SACRAMENTO VLY...COULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEST SURFACE HEATING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS HELPED TO BOOST SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM WCNTRL CA COAST INLAND TO I5 AND NORTH TO SAC. AREAS OF DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE... COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES OF INCREASING CONVECTION. STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO KINGS COUNTY ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG REFLECTIVITY NOTED TO THE EAST OF OAKLAND. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION...STRONG BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...COULD RESULT IN HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADO WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 34151903 34141853 35971887 37501982 39082100 39182179 38802253 38282274 38052295 37122236 36362165 35682110 35382083 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 21:54:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 16:54:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212157.j1LLvRsu032138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212147 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...NCNTRL GA...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26... VALID 212147Z - 212345Z A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN GA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN TN INTO NRN GA. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS OF 70 TO 75 F ACROSS NRN MS...NRN AL INTO NCNTRL GA IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER TN IS ENHANCING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS NEAR THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IN NRN AL AND FAR NW GA WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32688178 32848246 33238416 33438812 33578946 34378988 34738891 34638532 34528350 33318106  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 21:57:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 16:57:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212200.j1LM0Bxm001864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212158 MSZ000-ARZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW MS AND ECNTRL/SE AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212158Z - 212330Z TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE PROGRESSIVELY WWD THROUGH NCNTRL/NW MS AND POSSIBLY INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WSWLY FEED AHEAD OF SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO DRIVE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE MS ATTM...AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WWD ACROSS NW MS INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SEMI-CONCENTRATED CU/TCU FIELD FROM JUST E/NE OF PBF TO 35 N OF TUP. IN SPITE OF NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES...AS EVIDENCE OF MIXING SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL AR...SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LESS CERTAIN PROGRESSIVELY WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST. IN SPITE OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...40-60 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS ABOVE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG -- WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH. ..GUYER.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34818995 34588945 33548943 33419012 33419183 34339205 34619124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 22:08:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 17:08:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212211.j1LMBH3g011468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212153 CAZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212153Z - 220000Z TSTMS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST RANGES WEST OF I5...AND AROUND SFO AND THE SACRAMENTO VLY...COULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEST SURFACE HEATING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS HELPED TO BOOST SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM WCNTRL CA COAST INLAND TO I5 AND NORTH TO SAC. AREAS OF DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE... COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES OF INCREASING CONVECTION. STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO KINGS COUNTY ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG REFLECTIVITY NOTED TO THE EAST OF OAKLAND. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION...STRONG BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...COULD RESULT IN HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADO WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 34151903 34141853 35971887 37501982 39082100 39182179 38802253 38282274 38052295 37122236 36362165 35682110 35382083  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 22:17:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 17:17:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212220.j1LMKBl6018035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212158 MSZ000-ARZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW MS AND ECNTRL/SE AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212158Z - 212330Z TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE PROGRESSIVELY WWD THROUGH NCNTRL/NW MS AND POSSIBLY INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WSWLY FEED AHEAD OF SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO DRIVE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE MS ATTM...AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WWD ACROSS NW MS INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SEMI-CONCENTRATED CU/TCU FIELD FROM JUST E/NE OF PBF TO 35 N OF TUP. IN SPITE OF NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES...AS EVIDENCE OF MIXING SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL AR...SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LESS CERTAIN PROGRESSIVELY WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST. IN SPITE OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...40-60 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS ABOVE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG -- WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH. ..GUYER.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34818995 34588945 33548943 33419012 33419183 34339205 34619124  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 22:48:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 17:48:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212251.j1LMpm5W008339@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212250 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN GA AND NRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212250Z - 212345Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN GA. WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS REGION...WITH GREATER SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN AL/NRN HALF OF GA INTO SC. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL NEWD INTO CENTRAL GA. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35-40 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS. STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS PRIOR TO AIR MASS STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY FOR HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31048763 31588716 32538473 33148368 32878176 31928193 31148341 30838467 30838679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 23:46:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 18:46:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212349.j1LNnO2C018232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212348 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-220015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL AL...NRN/CENTRAL GA/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26... VALID 212348Z - 220015Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL GA INTO NRN/ CENTRAL AL AND SRN SC. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN SC WNWWD TO NWRN GA/NWRN AL...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LOCATED OVER NRN GA FROM FORSYTH TO BARTOW COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS TN VALLEY AND WSWLY INFLOW LLJ WILL MAINTAIN CONVERGENCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY AXIS. ..PETERS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34288427 33328069 32598030 31738112 32348344 33168556 33368803 34458816 34668779 34558624 34438516 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 03:42:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 22:42:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502220344.j1M3itVN012575@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220343 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-220515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AL/GA INTO SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...29... VALID 220343Z - 220515Z A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 06-07Z... WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AL/GA INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS WSWLY 30 KT LLJ IMPINGES ON WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN SC WNWWD OVER CENTRAL GA TO CENTRAL AL AND NRN MS. DESPITE DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...INFLOW OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING TO THE ESE INTO CENTRAL GA/SRN SC. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. 00Z RUC/NAM BOTH INDICATED THAT THE LLJ WILL VEER TO THE W/WNW BETWEEN 06-09Z...BECOMING ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID LEVEL JET MOVES AWAY FROM THIS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT AFTER 06-07Z. ..PETERS.. 02/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 33818537 34028383 33688169 33137946 32747976 32238057 31858135 31798382 31768574 32348694 33258809 33598663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 05:27:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 00:27:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502220530.j1M5UCDZ010708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220529 CAZ000-220630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27... VALID 220529Z - 220630Z ISOLATED WATERSPOUT AND/OR TORNADO POSSIBLE THROUGH 08-09Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW. THUS...WW 27 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. IR IMAGERY INDICATED AN APPARENT LEADING AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING N-S ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO OFFSHORE OF SRN CA ACROSS THE GULF OF SANTA CATALINA. THIS ASCENT MAY BE AIDING IN THE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SRN CA...WITH ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/POTENTIAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD 06-07Z OFFSHORE OF SRN CA AS A SECOND AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 33N 122W...APPROACHES THIS REGION. BACKED SURFACE FLOW LOCATED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A BRIEF WATERSPOUT AND/OR TORNADO WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 02/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX... 34341941 34821936 34821757 34361653 32631529 32561731 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 21:31:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 16:31:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502222257.j1MMvD0N022366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222227 TXZ000-NMZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222227Z - 230030Z TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS INVOF OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TCC/AMA/SPS. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM AMA SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR MAF. SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER VALUES FARTHER SOUTH. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE UNDERCUT...STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 02/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35490348 34530313 32950269 31730246 31690111 32919988 34000015 35110051 35750240  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 23:03:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 18:03:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230029.j1N0TAev022140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230028 CAZ000-230230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 30... VALID 230028Z - 230230Z TORNADO/WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TORNADO WATCH 30 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 23/0200Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW BANDS OF LOW TOPPED TSTMS...THOUGH RECENT LIGHTNING DATA HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...GIVEN 20-30 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR OBSERVED BY AREA VAD WIND DATA. SINCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM SAN DIEGO SUPPORTS THE DECREASING INSTABILITY...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8 C/KM WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE CELLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES WILL BE OVER VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES WHERE SE/ELY SFC WINDS WILL ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. ..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...LOX... 34551770 34531983 32591810 32611603 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 00:20:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 19:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230146.j1N1kAHG011180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230145 TXZ000-230245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NORTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31...32... VALID 230145Z - 230245Z ...EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL SPREAD NWD-EWD ACROSS WCNTRL TO NCNTRL PORTIONS OF TX... NWD/EWD - EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW31 INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW32 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NRN PORTION OF THIS CLUSTER IS LIKELY ELEVATED AND SHOULD BECOME MORE SO WITH TIME AS FRONTAL SURGE UNDERCUTS CONVECTION. ONE SIGNIFICANT LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY DROPPED VERY LARGE HAIL IN TAYLOR COUNTY...WHILE OTHER NEAR STATIONARY BACK-BUILDING STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG SRN FRINGE FROM TOM GREEN COUNTY TO COLEMAN COUNTY. UPSTREAM FORCING SHOULD SPREAD INTO THIS REGION LATE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ..DARROW.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31320129 33919989 33669744 31019919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 01:58:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 20:58:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230323.j1N3NxgA010742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230323 OKZ000-TXZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND SCNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230323Z - 230430Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN INTO SCNTRL OK... MOISTURE ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SPREADING NWD INTO SWRN OK AS SHALLOW FRONT SURGES SWD INTO NWRN TX. RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN TX...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY INTO SWRN OK. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL. HOWEVER...STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE SEVERE HAIL HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 34309986 35829910 35469774 33939696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 03:28:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 22:28:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230453.j1N4rRi0002064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230452 OKZ000-TXZ000-230545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK AND NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31...32...33... VALID 230452Z - 230545Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE REISSUED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OK INTO NCNTRL TX... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK. RESULTANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE GIVEN SHEAR/THERMAL PROFILES FOR HAIL-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX/OK. WW WILL BE REISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31659944 36009793 35939525 31859576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 06:18:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 01:18:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230743.j1N7hKw8003748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230741 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-230945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN/ERN OK...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...PORTIONS WRN AR CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34... VALID 230741Z - 230945Z TSTMS NOW OVER SERN OK ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS WRN AR BY 10Z...LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY CONCERN. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. MEANWHILE SEVERE MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- INCLUDING BOW ECHO OVER PORTIONS COMANCHE/HAMILTON/ERATH COUNTIES AS OF 715Z...WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MCLENNAN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...PRODUCING COMBINATION OF WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL AND EXTREME RAIN RATES OF 3-4 INCHES/HOUR. VWP FROM GRK SHOWS DEEP LAYER OF 30-40 KT LLJ FLOW IN INFLOW REGION OF THIS COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND LARGE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN RUC SOUNDINGS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT W AND NW OF BOW -- TO VICINITY ABI -- SHOULD MOVE ENEWD TO NEWD WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL OK GENERALLY HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER... AIR MASS ABOVE SFC IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SWRN OK BEHIND ONGOING CONVECTIVE SWATH. WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA MAY NOT BE AS VIGOROUS AS FARTHER E WHERE LLJ IS STRONGER...IT STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE/MAINTAIN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO 8-8.5 DEG C/KM RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 OVER WRN PORTION WW 34 FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...THOUGH COVERAGE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS DENSE AS WITH ERN OK AND CENTRAL TX CLUSTERS...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP. ..EDWARDS.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT... 34869464 35939449 35809373 35709349 35469317 35129305 34619313 34099338 33849355 33549412 33379482 31189899 36039860 36029447 31189509 31209870 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 12:26:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 07:26:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231351.j1NDpJf2008519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231350 LAZ000-TXZ000-231545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX AND WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 231350Z - 231545Z DISCUSSION AREA BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ORGANIZED MCS -- CONTAINING SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS...LEWP FORMATIONS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER E TX...SABINE VALLEY AND WRN LA THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY ASSOCIATED MCV ESTIMATED BETWEEN CORSICANA-PALESTINE TX AS OF 1345Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SOME THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING BOWS...ESPECIALLY ONCE FOREGOING INFLOW AIR HAS BEGUN HEATING DIABATICALLY. TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MCS AND BECOME SUPERCELLS. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL OCCUR AS COMPLEX MOVES OVERHEAD...LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CELL MERGERS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR LFK ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LA TO NEAR SIL. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MAXIMIZED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON MESO-BETA SCALE AS TSTM COMPLEX PROCEEDS ACROSS REGION. VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS OVER SE TX INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT...ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS ENOUGH TO YIELD 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG FOR EWD MOVING STORM...AND 0-3 KM SRH NEAR 300 J/KG. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASED DRYING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY IN MID-UPPER LEVELS - IN A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL/SRN TX NOT SAMPLED BY RAOBS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND MLCAPE RISING TO AROUND 1200 J/KG NEXT 3-4 HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 32509494 32369423 32209318 31779256 31189242 30809276 30469332 29789535 30149635 30609696 31069590 31419513 32009501 32349507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 15:11:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 10:11:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231636.j1NGaFpS030032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231635 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231635Z - 231830Z A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST TX WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS FAR E TX. ANOTHER SMALLER BOW IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NW LA. THESE CONVECTIVE LINES ARE NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL LA AND SRN MS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WEAK THIS AFTERNOON BUT HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS SRN MS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BETTER WIND DAMAGE THREAT LIKELY IN THE 19Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SE LA AND SWRN MS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE THAT DEVELOP IN AREAS OF LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31949409 31019489 30419589 30159551 30039270 29939095 29908962 30248862 31018853 31918852 32238887 32459147 32499348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 16:25:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 11:25:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231750.j1NHockK003919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231749 AZZ000-CAZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA...SWRN AND SCNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231749Z - 231945Z SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SE CA WITH NEW CELLS INITIATING IN FAR SERN CA. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SWRN AZ...THE HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED OVER THE LA BASIN WITH A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT MOVING NEWD ACROSS SERN CA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO SW AZ MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE GULF OF CA WITH LOWER TO MID 50 F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SW AZ. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE UPPER-LOW IS CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. AS CELLS INITIATE AND MATURE...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL MAKE HAIL A THREAT ACROSS SE CA AND THE SW DESERT OF AZ. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32401429 32741586 33331618 34051605 34631558 34881479 34791370 34161189 33591145 32701147 32001223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 16:51:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 11:51:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231816.j1NIGIvx030153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231813 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-232015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL MS...FAR NE LA...FAR SE AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231813Z - 232015Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. A SHORT LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE JACKSON AREA. THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS CNTRL MS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE AT JACKSON CURRENTLY SHOWS 40 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED MULTICELL THREAT AS THE CELLS MOVE NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NCNTRL MS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM AND INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST OF CELLS. AS THE CELLS GET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NCNTRL MS...SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR DUE TO COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AND WEAKER INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33669120 33898930 33638839 33148831 32798853 32499029 32619146 33169159  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 17:02:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 12:02:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231827.j1NIRpu3008713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231826 KSZ000-COZ000-232230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231826Z - 232230Z BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN CO POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SW KS THIS AFTN. HRLY SNOW RATES WILL BE UP TO 1 INCH...WITH HIGHER RATES WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES MESOSCALE ASCENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS CNTRL NM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA. THE SECOND IS A SPEED MAX APPROACHING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. BOTH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE MESOSCALE...LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES TO AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. RADAR LOOPS SHOW MODERATE SNOW ORGANIZING INTO BANDED STRUCTURES ACROSS SERN CO...WITH MODERATE SNOW REPORTED AT PUEBLO AND LA JUNTA CO OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SFC TEMPERATURE PATTERN OR EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. IN PARTICULAR THE NAM HAS NOT RESOLVED THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC...WITH THE FORECAST AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES TOO HIGH. CURRENT SFC TEMPS ACROSS SERN CO/SW KS ARE IN THE LOW 30S WITH WETBULB TEMPS AROUND 31-33 DEGREES. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING PCPN WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND RUC FOR THE AFTN. BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ENHANCING FROM LAA TO NW OF GCK...AND IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR IF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP INTO WRN KS. HOWEVER...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...WITH SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER. WITH INCREASING LIFT AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN SFC TEMP...THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW NOW IN SERN CO MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO SW KS. ..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38810252 38680495 37430482 37330275 37500186 37810112 38830106 38840206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 17:55:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 12:55:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231920.j1NJKLXx027053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231919 TXZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231919Z - 232115Z ISOLATED CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MIDLAND. THE CELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL LIKELY THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE EXTENDING WSW TO ENE FROM NEAR FORT STOCKTON TO BRADY TX. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN STORM INITIATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SOME CAPPING STILL EXISTS AND THE CELLS ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. THE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COLD FRONT DRYLINE INTERSECTION WHERE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 30 F. TEMPS IN THE 70S F COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -17C ARE CREATING STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS CELLS SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND TAP INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE STORMS TO BECOME SFC-BASED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE SJT AREA AT 21Z SUGGEST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY ALSO OCCUR. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29990236 30400286 30990284 31280120 31709933 31929861 31569807 30949802 30190021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 18:36:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:36:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502232002.j1NK247H002987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232000 TXZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX AND THE TX COASTAL PLAIN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232000Z - 232200Z SCATTERED CELLS ARE INITIATING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SE TX AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST FROM GALVESTON TO MATAGORDA BAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 80 F ARE RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. NEW CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SE TX AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP... 28439646 28459679 28839702 29269661 29849578 30249487 30349426 30129393 29819401 29239498 28519624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 18:51:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:51:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502232016.j1NKGEPv016867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232015 NMZ000-TXZ000-232215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232015Z - 232215Z ...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NM... TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NM...AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...FURTHER ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC AND PROFILER DATA FROM TUCUMCARI/WHITE SANDS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 60 KT...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9 C/KM COMBINED WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES AS NOTED FROM INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO STRONG TSTM WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SVR HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES OF 5 PERCENT HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 35060682 34720874 33380903 31800861 31990622 32160492 33200461 34360489 34930574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 19:43:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 14:43:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502232109.j1NL99uj031316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232108 MSZ000-LAZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35... VALID 232108Z - 232315Z A BOW ECHO CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN MS AND SRN LA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. THE STRONGER CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD ACROSS CNTRL AL AND CNTRL MS. THE BOW ECHO IS LOCATED FROM THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD INTO FAR SWRN LA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 22Z AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF THE LINE IN SRN LA WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF HIGHER INSTABILITY EXISTING ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR IN SW MS AND FAR ERN LA. THESE AREAS WILL BE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR INTENSE CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LINE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH NEW CELLS THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF THE LINE IN SE LA AND SRN MS. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30278900 30039013 29879215 29829315 30029325 30319287 30749205 32169052 32628942 32668866 32158845 31208857 30728868 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 23:22:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 18:22:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240047.j1O0llkO002078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240046 TXZ000-NMZ000-240245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240046Z - 240245Z THROUGH 02 OR 03Z....POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT MOVE MOVES THROUGH LEA COUNTY NM INTO FAR WRN TX. AS OF 0030Z....MAF RADAR INDICATED A STORM EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER W-CNTRL LEA COUNTY NM MOVING 275/32 KTS. WHILE...00Z MAF SOUNDING REFLECTED RATHER STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS PRESENT WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...IT APPEARS THAT 00Z EPZ SOUNDING IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS STORM/S INITIATING ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATION AT HOB...THIS STORM AND OTHER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO IT ARE LIKELY BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH EWD EXTENT. GIVEN RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 02 OR 03Z INTO FAR WRN TX...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER OWING TO THE WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 32890408 33390379 33450272 32960212 32280222 31990293 31940360 32250398 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 23:28:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 18:28:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240053.j1O0rfQ3006243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240052 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-240445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NM CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 240052Z - 240445Z UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT WILL BEGIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS/NERN PLAINS OF NM. SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO SRN AZ BY THU MORNING. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NRN NM FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL HELP FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND SRN KS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING FOR MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z. SINCE SFC TEMPS IN THE NERN PLAINS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S...PCPN SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW RECENTLY REPORTED AT LVS. FARTHER WEST NEAR SAF/SKX WHERE TEMPS ARE WARMER...A FEW HOURS OF DIABATIC COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ALL SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-05Z. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 C/KG NOTED ON 00Z ABQ SOUNDING AND RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ONCE SNOW BEGINS...STRONG LIFT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35460295 35250559 35180690 36960641 37000364 37000300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 00:11:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 19:11:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240137.j1O1b4pf000962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240136 TXZ000-240300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGIONS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36... VALID 240136Z - 240300Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 03Z. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ABOUT 50N OF SAT TO WWD TO 50NE OF P07. STRONGEST STORMS CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED OVER NRN VAL VERDE COUNTY WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /PER 00Z DRT SOUNDING/. CLOSE INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO INTO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. 00Z RUC APPEARS TO HAVE RESOLVED THIS FEATURE AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE...SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM P07/DRT ENEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT. GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP S TX...IN ADDITION TO AMPLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 03Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND S OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30240259 31120239 31639755 29589731 29250075 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 03:48:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 22:48:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240513.j1O5DtPr013348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240512 TXZ000-240715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240512Z - 240715Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM UPTON AND REAGAN COUNTIES NEWD IN AN ARC TO N AND NE OF SJT. WHILE THIS AREA LIES WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...CURRENT SJT VWP CLEARLY INDICATES A RELATIVELY STRONG WAA PATTERN IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER. CORRESPONDING RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOIST...SATURATED LAYER /ROUGHLY ABOUT 700-800 M DEEP/ ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM IS RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME HOWEVER AS INVERSION DEEPENS. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31020210 31900121 32130008 31989878 31239799 30649862 30440068 30430171 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 04:12:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 23:12:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240538.j1O5c6CZ027617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240537 TXZ000-240730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37... VALID 240537Z - 240730Z THREAT CONTINUES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WITH ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. AS OF 0515Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER EDWARDS AND KINNEY COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE INTO MAVERICK COUNTY. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA/COAHUILA MEXICO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY EWD. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON DOWNSTREAM RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WHETHER THIS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CAN EFFECTIVELY ERODE CAP SUCH THAT ONGOING STORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED EWD TOWARD SAT. SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER BANDERA AND REAL COUNTIES SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS MAY WELL BE OCCURRING. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING STORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST EWD ACROSS WW 0037. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT... 29750144 30300104 30419827 28639815 28160023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 06:22:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 01:22:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240747.j1O7lueZ003061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240747 TXZ000-240915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37... VALID 240747Z - 240915Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SAT METRO AREA SWD TO NEAR COT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG AND E OF THIS LINE THROUGH SCHEDULED EXPIRATION...UNLESS REPLACEMENT WW IS REQUIRED. ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION OF WW 37...TO COVER AREAS FROM NEAR CRP WWD AND NWD. CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS TO BE BACKBUILDING SWD ACROSS DIMMIT COUNTY INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...BUT MORE MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW...DIABATICALLY COOLED STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC...BENEATH ELEVATED MUCAPE OF APPROXIMATELY 2500 J/KG. VWP AND RUC DATA INDICATES 500 MB FLOW 30-35 KT AROUND LATITUDE OF SAT...DECREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG CRP-LRD LINE. THIS SUPPORTS BOTH WEAKENING LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR AND WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SR FLOW SWD THROUGH REGION. THEREFORE ANY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES SUCH AS THOSE RECENTLY OBSERVED ALONG SRN END OF TSTM BAND OVER ZAVALA/FRIO COUNTIES...SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY THROUGH HEAVY-PRECIP PHASE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT. GREATEST ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS ATASCOSA...EXTREME SRN BEXAR...KARNES AND WILSON COUNTIES. THIS IS ALSO ALONG AND JUST S OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE..WHERE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND MOST CONDUCIVE TO PENETRATION OF DOWNDRAFT GUSTS TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...HGX... 30250166 30409823 28669824 28500168 29989821 29989767 29849689 29619669 29289668 28889671 28409695 27989734 27949826 28069908 28199934 28329944 28469943 28619928 28669824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 08:48:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 03:48:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502241013.j1OADjDv015691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241012 TXZ000-241145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX...TX COASTAL BEND AND MIDDLE TX COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38... VALID 241012Z - 241145Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW...INCLUDING AREA BEHIND MCS...IN ORDER TO COVER ELEVATED...HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP OUTFLOW POOL. ANOTHER VERY SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR...FOR MIDDLE COAST REGION AROUND PSX THAT IS EAST OF PRESENT WW 38. LEADING PORTION OF BOW ECHO -- ENTERING WRN DEWITT COUNTY AS OF 10Z -- IS EXPECTED TO EXIT ERN PORTION WW WITHIN ANOTHER 1-1.5 HOURS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS JACKSON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY BRUSH SRN PORTIONS WHARTON/BRAZORIA COUNTIES...ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE. MEANWHILE SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXTEND SWWD DOWN TSTM LINE AS TRAILING PORTION MOVES FROM LIVE OAK/MCMULLEN COUNTIES TOWARDS ARANSAS/CALHOUN COUNTIES. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW LAYER OF DIABATICALLY COOLED AIR...BENEATH ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SUCH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BOW ECHO AND TRAILING CONVECTIVE LINE UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE. ..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28169688 29469685 29289533 29039516 28729532 27759698 28139843 29459887 29449682 28139683 28149890 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 10:34:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 05:34:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502241159.j1OBxG5J005806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241158 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-241700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN VA / MD / DE / SRN NJ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241158Z - 241700Z MDT TO HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH 1 IN/HR RATES LIKELY BY LATE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM NERN VA ACROSS CENTRAL MD INTO DE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BELOW 650 MB WILL INCREASE AS THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR A WSW-ENE ORIENTED ZONE OF HEAVY SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA MODELS INDICATE RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FVX TO RIC VA LINE DUE TO WARMING ALOFT...WHILE BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS COLDER PROFILES NORTH OF THIS LINE. ..JEWELL.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38227512 37877639 37847765 37467856 37597907 38887833 39187762 39437692 39627568 39257451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 11:40:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 06:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502241305.j1OD5NjD014058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241304 TXZ000-241430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38...39... VALID 241304Z - 241430Z CONTINUE WW 39 ALONG AND E OF MCS. REMAINDER WW 38 PROBABLY WILL BE CANCELED SOON. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF WW 39 BEFORE 16Z...SO IT ALSO MIGHT BE CANCELED BEFORE EXPIRATION. MCS AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND ESEWD ACROSS TX COAST FROM SW OF GLS TO EXTREME NRN PADRE ISLAND. SRN PORTION OF MCS LIES MAINLY BEHIND ITS OWN GUST FRONT...AND NEWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS DUVAL/JIM WELLS COUNTIES SHOULD BE UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW FROM MCS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ATTM APPEARS TO BE OVER NRN PORTION OF THIS AREA -- MATAGORDA/BRAZORIA/WHARTON COUNTIES -- INVOF BOW ECHO. ALSO...SECONDARY BOW HAS DEVELOPED SOMEWHAT FARTHER NE OVER FT BEND COUNTY...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. ISOLATED SEVERE MAY OCCUR WITH LATTER FEATURE...BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN LIMITED LAND AREA LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29459887 29449682 28139683 28149890 29359610 30189536 29689455 29499448 28879460 28459516 29289513 29329681 29299516 28139518 28149681 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 17:43:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 12:43:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502241908.j1OJ8KrN011385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241907 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-242300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MD/NRN VA/SERN PA/NJ/DE/LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241907Z - 242300Z PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MD/PORTIONS OF PA/DE/NJ...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOURLY RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW HAVE FORMED AND ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY THE ATMOSPHERE'S RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. JET MAX IS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MO GIVEN TRENDS IN CONWAY/BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER DATA. CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OF 120M/12 HR WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW VA INTO SRN MD. SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF THE NC COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. THIS TRACK WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL E/NELY FLOW ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AND ASSOCIATED HIGH THETA-E AIR MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES NOTED AT DOVER/STERLING AND WAKEFIELD VA ARE INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING ATTM. OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE FOCUSED FROM PA TO NJ/DELMARVA WITH THE BEST FORCING EVENTUALLY ENDING FROM W TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 25/00Z. HEAVIEST SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM OKV THROUGH THE BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS INTO SRN SECTIONS OF PHILADELPHIA AND DE. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDREWS AFB INDICATE 2 INCH/HR RATES WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES AT BALTIMORE REPORTED FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS. THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME...THOUGH SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 40957594 39847828 38907790 37507540 39167326 40597203 41097208 41247307 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 19:30:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 14:30:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502242056.j1OKu0HY011689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242055 LAZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242055Z - 242330Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SERN LA COAST NEXT FEW HOURS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. GIVEN THE LIMITED THREAT AREA...AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WW. THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR DULAC ON THE SE LA COAST SWD INTO THE NWRN GULF. THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AT 35 TO 40 KT. LOCAL RADAR FROM SLIDELL SHOWS A ROTATING COMMA HEAD WITH TRAILING BOW ECHO ON THE NRN END OF THIS LINE SUGGESTING DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT BRUSHES THE COAST. REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED JUST OFFSHORE. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS COASTAL LA...AIDED BY MOIST UNSTABLE SLY INFLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX... 29238911 28959022 29289071 29709025 29738886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 07:14:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 02:14:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502250840.j1P8e4MY018869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250839 FLZ000-251045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 250839Z - 251045Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE FL PENINSULA...PER EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING EAST. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE WARMER GULF WATERS...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS HAVE EVOLVED IN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED FASHION FROM NEAR LEVY COUNTY...TO WELL WEST OF THE TPA REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR AN EWD MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BUT OBSERVED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD CONFINE MEANINGFUL STORM ROTATION TO THAT REGION WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. ..DARROW.. 02/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX... 29208298 29528209 29178185 28808219 27978248 28038283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 02:50:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 21:50:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502270415.j1R4FODC021948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270414 FLZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 270414Z - 270615Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. CAPE IN 27/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A 1000 J/KG...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH DELINEATES NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...ARE ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTING ROTATION IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ...FROM NEAR KEY WEST...WEST NORTHWESTWARD. BRIEF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD...HOWEVER...ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. TOWARD THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION TO BROADER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24388181 24388269 24448336 24748385 25658357 25988305 25968259 25888205 25918174 25498125 24858119 24458140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 02:54:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 21:54:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502270419.j1R4J4Dl023104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270418 FLZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 270418Z - 270615Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. CAPE IN 27/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A 1000 J/KG...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH DELINEATES NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...ARE ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTING ROTATION IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ...FROM NEAR KEY WEST...WEST NORTHWESTWARD. BRIEF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD...HOWEVER...ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. TOWARD THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION TO BROADER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24388181 24388269 24448336 24748385 25658357 25988305 25968259 25888205 25918174 25498125 24858119 24458140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 02:54:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 21:54:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502270419.j1R4Jtbt023384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270414 FLZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 270414Z - 270615Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. CAPE IN 27/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A 1000 J/KG...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH DELINEATES NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...ARE ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTING ROTATION IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ...FROM NEAR KEY WEST...WEST NORTHWESTWARD. BRIEF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD...HOWEVER...ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. TOWARD THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION TO BROADER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24388181 24388269 24448336 24748385 25658357 25988305 25968259 25888205 25918174 25498125 24858119 24458140  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 02:55:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 21:55:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502270420.j1R4KkJo024234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270418 FLZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 270418Z - 270615Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. CAPE IN 27/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A 1000 J/KG...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH DELINEATES NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...ARE ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTING ROTATION IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ...FROM NEAR KEY WEST...WEST NORTHWESTWARD. BRIEF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD...HOWEVER...ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. TOWARD THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION TO BROADER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24388181 24388269 24448336 24748385 25658357 25988305 25968259 25888205 25918174 25498125 24858119 24458140  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 11:45:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 06:45:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271310.j1RDAHXQ002548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271309 MIZ000-WIZ000-271715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN WI INTO WRN U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 271309Z - 271715Z BAND OF MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS WRN/NRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH 18Z. EMBEDDED SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1.0-1.5 IN/HR FOR A 1-2 HOUR DURATION. NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN U.P. OF MI/NW WI INTO SE MN...ALONG 30 W IWD TO 30 SE MSP AXIS AT 13Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS NRN MN WITH TRAILING VORT LOBE INTO NRN SD...AS SWLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED/WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME EXISTS INTO WI/U.P. OF MI. AS DYNAMIC ASCENT/STRONGEST UVVS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD...QUICK SATURATION/FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES -- PER 09Z RUC SOUNDINGS/12Z MPX RAOB -- SUGGESTS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS WRN/NRN WI AND WRN MI U.P. THIS MORNING. AS EVIDENT IN 12Z MPX RAOB...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM OR GREATER ARE LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO EMBEDDED BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. ..GUYER.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45889124 47148931 47098814 46958792 46058828 45008957 44469097 44409192 44919219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 12:37:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 07:37:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271402.j1RE2LVV029655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271401 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271401 FLZ000-271600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271401Z - 271600Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEING MONITORED JUST OFF THE W CNTRL FL CST. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF CNTRL FL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION/ POSSIBLE THUNDER OVER THE EXTREME ERN GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MILES WSW SRQ. NEWLY DEVELOPED CELLS IN THIS AREA ARE EXHIBITING WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND APPEAR TO BE LOCATED ALONG SEGMENT OF W/E WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS REGION. WIND PROFILES NEAR TPA /PER VWP DATA/ HAVE SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SRH IN THE PAST 2 HRS...WITH VALUES NOW APPROACHING 300 M2/S2. WHILE THE 12Z TPA RAOB DEPICTS A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...GREATER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY EXIST JUST SW OF TPA INVOF WARM FRONT AND CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE CONVECTION W OF SRQ WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND/OR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OCCURS...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ..CORFIDI.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW... 28008282 28118196 27718167 27168198 26918226 27358265 27808286 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 15:16:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 10:16:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271641.j1RGfROx016507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271640 FLZ000-271845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271640Z - 271845Z MESOSCALE TRENDS OVER S FL ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF DATA BEGIN TO SUGGEST INITIATION IS LIKELY IN THIS AREA...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. BOUNDARY SEPARATING RAIN COOLED AIR FROM WARM MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUNTA GORDA EWD TO NEAR THE PALM BEACH AREA. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. INCREASING SURFACE HEATING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY FLAT CUMULUS OFF THE SW FL COAST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RAOBS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI SUGGEST VERY LITTLE CAP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...AND POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER WITH TIME. HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IF INITIATION OCCURS. ..DIAL.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26378183 26868096 27008030 26828005 26158012 25428055 25368115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 16:28:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 11:28:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271753.j1RHrYnf023606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271752 MIZ000-WIZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...U.P OF MI AND NERN WI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 271752Z - 272145Z MOD-HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS THE WRN U.P OF MI AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH 21Z. FARTHER EAST...MOD-HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.P OF MI AND NERN WI THROUGH 22Z AND THE ERN U.P OF MI BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HVY SNOW RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL U.P OF MI THROUGH 22Z. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT BY CONCENTRATED SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND RAPIDLY MOVING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/NRN WI. RECENT WARMING TRENDS IN IR SAT IMAGERY AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUPPORT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THE POTENTIAL OF HVY SNOW RATES ABOVE 1 INCH/HR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. IN ADDITION...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM SFC-850 MB SUPPORTED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN SIDE OF A ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE ERN GRT LAKES WILL LIMIT A RAPID PROGRESSION OF MOD/HVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOD MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION WILL SUPPORT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HVY SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.P OF MI THROUGH 22Z. SNOW-LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS FROM 15-20:1 WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR IN AREAS WITH VSBY AROUND 1/2 MI. NEGATIVE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE WAKE OF A 700-500 MB TROUGH WILL AID IN A RAPID DEMISE OF MOD-HVY SNOW OVER THE WRN U.P OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 46678498 45898592 45718658 44508757 44208869 44608938 46198923 46948793 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 16:43:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 11:43:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271808.j1RI8r0Q031418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271808 FLZ000-272015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41... VALID 271808Z - 272015Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FL. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE PALM BEACH AREA WWD TO N OF PUNTA GORDA AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NWD. WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS PROMOTE SURFACE HEATING. DESPITE HEATING AND INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 800 J/KG. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WRN END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY LONGER AS THEY MOVE INLAND...AND ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN CELLS CONTAINING LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WARM SECTOR PROVIDING INFLOW TO THE STORMS DESTABILIZES. THE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO INITIALLY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND DEGREE OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY PRESENT IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27178065 26748161 26398268 27538270 28648272 28878218 29168147 29428062 28248058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 20:05:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 15:05:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502272130.j1RLUj4A015542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272129 FLZ000-272300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41... VALID 272129Z - 272300Z THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF E CNTRL FL. HOWEVER...THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG AN ENE-WSW ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO ABOUT 40 MILES S OF TAMPA AND WWD INTO THE ERN GULF. DESPITE SURFACE HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INFLUX OF WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN TO VEER...ESPECIALLY OVER W CNTRL FL AS PRIMARY LOW MOVES EWD TOWARD NRN FL AND STRONGER WLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN PART OF THE LINE WHERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND. STRONGEST SHEAR...CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE LINE WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER... SURFACE HEATING SUBSIDES...AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. ..DIAL.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27138064 26588192 26428263 27338269 28168264 28578241 29078143 29158062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 23:22:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 18:22:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502280047.j1S0laBI023196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280046 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-280645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC..FAR ERN TN AND SWRN VA/FAR SRN WV CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 280046Z - 280645Z HVY SNOW POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO COLD RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS HVY SNOW OVER WRN NC ...BUT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION OVER TO EITHER COLD RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BELOW 4500 FT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEEPENS IN THE STRONG WAA REGIME. FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHERE COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN DEEPER AND/OR LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SLIGHTLY WEAKER...EXPECT HVY SNOW TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WRN NC...AND OVER SWRN VA/FAR ERN TN AND FAR SRN WV BETWEEN 02-06Z. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SMOKY AND BLUE RIDGE MTNS WHERE STRONG ELY FLOW CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WILL AID IN STRONG OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. A DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE REGION. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR WHERE A STRONG WAA REGIME OVERLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD. THIS WAS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER AL...WHERE HRLY RAINFALL RATES OVER 0.2 INCHES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST 2 HOURS. EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT TRENDS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN GA...EXPECT THIS STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION FIELD TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION BETWEEN 02-06Z. GIVEN DEGREE OF FORCING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE -12 AND -16 DEG C LAYER...DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WILL BE MAXIMIZED TO SUPPORT HRLY SNOWFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH. IN ADDITION...WHERE THE WARM LAYER IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN...A 15O MB DEEP LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB OF AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL. SINCE THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VALID NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 850 MB...THE DEGREE OF THE ELEVATED WARMING THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. HOWEVER...WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT COOLING NEAR THE SFC...THAT WHERE THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS PRESENT...TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SUPPORT EITHER VERY COLD RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT OF THE PIEDMONT OF WRN NC. ..CROSBIE.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... 36687958 37507991 37688100 36658263 35718365 35148403 34908325 36138039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 00:59:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 19:59:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502280224.j1S2O4ek007669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280223 TXZ000-280330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TEXAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 280223Z - 280330Z MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE MIDLAND AREA PROBABLY IS OCCURRING IN AREA OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF EARLIER DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUPPORTING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. SURFACE BASED-INVERSION LAYER IS ALREADY FORMING...AND MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. AS STEERING FLOW ADVECTS ACTIVITY INTO COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO... NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...DIMINISHING TRENDS ARE EXPECTED. AS NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING PROGRESSES...RISK OF DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY ALREADY BE WANING. ..KERR.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... 32090144 32490116 32610078 31719890 31089900 31029986 31500072 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 05:55:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 00:55:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502280720.j1S7Klpl022006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280720 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280719 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT OF NC/VA AND WV CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 280719Z - 281115Z MDT/HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE NC/WV/VA APPALACHIANS THROUGH 12Z...WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES COMMON. INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS/PIEDMONT...A NARROW ZONE OF SLEET/FZRA WILL LIKELY TRANSITION NWD INVOF GSO-DAN-LYH-CHO CORRIDOR. STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME COUPLED WITH UPPER JET ENHANCED UVVS...WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NC/VA OVERNIGHT. ALREADY EVIDENT IN GSP/CAE/LAX/RAX WSR-88D VADS...40-60 KT ELY 850 MB JET WILL TRANSLATE NWD ACROSS NC/VA OVERNIGHT ON NRN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL CAROLINAS SFC CYCLONE. THESE MOIST ELY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL FURTHER SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHERE SNOW RATES AS HIGH AS 2.0 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILES COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT. AS EVIDENT IN SPECIAL 06Z GSO RAOB...NARROW WARM LAYER AROUND 850 MB /APPROX 3.0 C IN RAOB/ WILL SUPPORT PARTIAL AND/OR FULL MELTING ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH NC/VA. THUS A ZONE OF SLEET AND/OR FZRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NWD ALONG A GSO-DAN-LYH-CHO CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WHERE NEAR/SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED...A TREND LARGELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH 00Z NAM/06Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 38348115 38728049 38887993 39007942 39207842 38937775 37897810 37057851 36057983 35788125 35668186 35998242 36438237 36788255 36898265 37338259 38118168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 11:52:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 06:52:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502281317.j1SDHkap003715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281316 MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV AND WRN/CNTRL VA INTO WRN/CNTRL MD AND SRN PA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 281316Z - 281715Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE WV/VA APPALACHIANS INTO WRN MD/SRN PA THROUGH 18Z...WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE INVOF HIGHEST TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...SOME FZRA/SLEET SHOULD MIX IN WITH SNOW/RAIN IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL VA POSSIBLY INTO CNTRL MD...MOST LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF A DAN-DCA AXIS. AT 12Z...APPROX 993 MB SFC LOW CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST 100 NM SSW OF HSE. AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/MOVE NNEWD...LOW LEVEL ELY CONVEYOR ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE COINCIDENT WITH COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS ACROSS CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES. INVOF OF WV/VA APPALACHIANS...SUFFICIENTLY REMOVED FROM STRONGEST WAA...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW WITH DYNAMIC LIFT COINCIDENT WITHIN DENDRITIC LAYER. ACROSS NRN VA INTO WRN/CNTRL MD AND SRN PA...09Z RUC SUGGESTS INITIAL/SHALLOW DRY LOW LEVELS /E.G. 12Z IAD RAOB/ WILL BE QUICKLY SATURATED NWD INTO MRB/HGR AREAS BETWEEN 14Z-16Z AS UVVS MARKEDLY INCREASE. ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE MARGINAL/TRANSITIONAL...09Z RUC SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET/FZRA -- MIXED WITH SNOW TO THE WEST AND RAIN EAST -- WILL SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL VA/CNTRL MD FROM DAN/LYH VICINITIES TO NEAR CHO AND DCA. ALTHOUGH 12Z IAD OBSERVED RAOB FEATURES SUB-FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH ENTIRE COLUMN /-1.5 C AT 850 MB/...AFOREMENTIONED RUC SOLUTION APPEARS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CONTINUAL TREND OF WARMING/ELY TRAJECTORIES OFF MILD ATLANTIC. ..GUYER.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL... 40367799 40227687 39627643 37777775 37127851 36577925 36258014 36378083 36458154 36668194 36848213 37098223 38208162 39008081 39957912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 16:07:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 11:07:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502281732.j1SHWNvJ030039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281730 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...ERN PA AND SERN NY...LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281730Z - 282230Z A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS SRN NJ...ERN PA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR HVY SNOW AS IT MOVES NWD INTO NRN NJ/LONG ISLAND AND THE NYC AREA. THUS HOURLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND/OR COLD RAIN ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER INITIAL PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 600 MB AND CONTINUED STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 20-30 NM WIDE E-W BAND OF MOD SNOW AS IT MOVES NWD THROUGH NJ AND ERN PA AND EVENTUALLY INTO LONG ISLAND/SERN NY. DESPITE THE DEEP DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING... PRECIPITATION FALL SHOULD RAPIDLY SATURATE THIS LAYER. AS SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX MOVES NWD THROUGH VA...INCREASINGLY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO HVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS BAND OF SNOW. CURRENT FORWARD MOTION OF THIS BAND AROUND 15 MPH SUGGESTS MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH/HR. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PRESENT FORWARD MOTION WOULD ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF HVY SNOW TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AROUND 21Z. DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER...SOME OF THE SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTOGENETIC HEAVY SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN NJ WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. ..CROSBIE.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39807410 40667333 41127404 41227518 40687573 40187590 39847603 39237486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 16:58:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 11:58:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502281822.j1SIMwRo004859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281822 MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-282315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...D.C...MD...WV AND PA AND ERN OH CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 281822Z - 282315Z PERIODS OF HVY SNOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN VA...THE D.C METRO AREA...NRN/CENTRAL MD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THEN THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 21-00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER NORTH/WEST...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN/CNTRL WV THROUGH 21Z WHILE DEVELOPING INTO SWRN/SCENTRAL PA THROUGH 00Z. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SHORT TERM RATES IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A TRAILING VORT MAX HAS AIDED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN/CENTRAL VA EWD OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. 15Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS ...SHOWING 7-7.5 DEG C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. THE RECENT COOLING TRENDS IN IR IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARDS INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AS UPPER VORT FORCING INTERACTS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE. DESPITE LIMITED HVY SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL AND ORGANIZATION OF SNOWBANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NWD THROUGH SRN VA WILL SUPPORT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HVY SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL/NRN VA INTO THE D.C AREA AND NRN/CENTRAL MD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MAIN UPPER VORT PASSES BY...AND BEFORE THE 850 MB WAA CEASES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FARTHER WNW...A SECONDARY VORT MAX WHICH WAS WELL DEFINED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CENTERED OVER SWRN WV. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS IT MOVES NWD OVER NRN WV INTO FAR ERN OH...SWRN/ SCENTRAL PA. MOD TO OCCASIONALLY HVY SNOW WILL RESULT OVER THIS REGION GENERALLY ABOVE 1000 FT AS FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE 600-500 MB LAYER COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. ..CROSBIE.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 37757794 39007656 40007601 40507723 40887928 41058087 40088133 38288129 37617922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 20:46:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 15:46:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502282211.j1SMBlSM027183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282210 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-010415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NJ...SRN NY...CT...RI...SRN NH/SRN VT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 282210Z - 010415Z PERIODS OF HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM SERN PA...NJ/FAR SERN NY INTO MUCH OF NCENTRAL/NERN PA...SRN NY AND CT/RI...MA AND SRN NH/SRN VT THROUGH 04Z. A COALESCENCE OF UPPER FORCING FROM A VORT MAX OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. DEGREE OF FOCUSED FRONTOGENETIC LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER.../500-600 MB LAYER/ COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7.5 DEG C/KM WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES FROM NRN NJ NEWD INTO SERN NY...CT...RI...MA AND FAR SRN VT/SRN NH THROUGH 04Z. IN THESE LOCATIONS SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE MORE COMMON AS SOMEWHAT WEAKER VERTICAL MOTION AND LESSER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. AS THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FORCING PROGRESSES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION...HVY SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END ALONG A LINE FROM RDG TO THE NYC METRO AREA TO SRN CT BY 03Z....WHILE DEVELOPING ACROSS MA/CT AND RI BETWEEN THROUGH 02Z. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WAA REGIME MAY LEAD TO A MIX OR CHANGE OVER OF THE SNOW TO SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NJ AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN. ..CROSBIE.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39507486 39997407 40587364 40837199 41437056 42237056 42497083 42647367 42247682 41017724 40007590 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 13:16:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 08:16:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502011318.j11DIwZe021332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011317 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-011815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/W TX INTO NCNTRL TX/SRN OK CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 011317Z - 011815Z SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM W TX INTO PORTIONS OF NW TX AND EVENTUALLY SRN OK. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE LIKELY...WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-2"/HR. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ARE TAKING SHAPE THIS MORNING...AS NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONG LIFT HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS TX...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE WARM CONVEYOR CIRRUS EXTENDING INTO CNTRL/NERN OK. UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW OVER SONORA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING/AFTN...WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT LIKELY FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED BY MODELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM...AND LIKELY GUIDE IT ON A TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE / DUE TO THE FUJIWARA OR "DUMBBELLING" EFFECT/. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAS PRECIPITATION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS W TX...WITH A DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST OF WINK TO SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MIDLAND AND AMARILLO INDICATE THE EFFECTS OF DYNAMICAL COOLING SINCE THE 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE WARM LAYER NEAR 700MB ON BOTH SOUNDINGS HAS SINCE COOLED/MOISTENED...WITH A COMPLETELY SATURATED SOUNDING AT MIDLAND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO ANY INITIAL RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FORT WORTH AND NORMAN INDICATE SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT VIRGA WILL HELP SATURATE THE COLUMN. SHORT-TERM MODELS WILL BE TOO SLOW WITH THEIR QPF SOLUTION...AND LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH GIVEN RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. MODELS DO HOWEVER AGREE THAT SNOW RATES OF UP TO AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SETS UP THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST AROUND ABILENE/DFW METROPLEX WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS MORNING NEAR ABILENE AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR DFW. WITH ISOTHERMAL PROFILES AND A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...PERIOD OF MOD/HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN A SWATH FROM INK/DYS THIS MORNING...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 02/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 34390069 34090210 32000615 30890609 30230409 30650138 31299930 31649841 31959768 33079739 34009755 34419871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 22:03:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 17:03:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502012206.j11M64Wx002665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012204 TXZ000-OKZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX/FAR SRN OK CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 012204Z - 020100Z ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL LARGELY REMAIN PREDOMINANT PRECIP-TYPE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX INTO SRN OK...A RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO MDT/HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES/DURATION ON THE MESOSCALE. AT 22Z...MID/UPPER 30S SFC TEMPS AND MID 30S DEWPOINTS LARGELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL TX AND FAR SRN OK. 18Z FWD OBSERVED RAOB/18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE SHALLOW /SUB 1 KM/ WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. HOWEVER MELTING EFFECT /IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL COOLING/ MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO MDT/HEAVY SNOW COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES/DURATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS APPARENTLY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INVOF JCT /JUNCTION TX/. ..GUYER/GOSS.. 02/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32909719 32869717 31849777 31589843 31799929 32709940 33669942 34439916 34669845 34579785 34339742 33659698 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 01:18:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 20:18:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502020121.j121LPhA016950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020120 OKZ000-TXZ000-020415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NRN TX CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 020120Z - 020415Z ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY REMAIN PREDOMINATE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NRN TX...A CHANGE OVER TO MDT/POSSIBLY HVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED/HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATE AREAS ON THE MESOSCALE. SIMILAR TO VERY SHALLOW /APPROX 600 M/ ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN 00Z FWD RAOB...00Z OUN RAOB SUGGESTS INITIAL SHALLOW WARM LAYER UPON EFFECTIVE SATURATION. ACCORDINGLY AT 01Z...MESONET OBS DEPICT MID/UPPER 30S SFC TEMPS PERSISTING ACROSS SRN OK/FAR NRN TX. IN SPITE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF WARM AIR...MELTING EFFECT /IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL COOLING/ WILL PROMOTE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THE MOST SUSTAINED/HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATE AREAS. IN PRESENCE OF WEAK THERMAL ADVECTIONS...SUCH SFC TEMPERATURE DROPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH 01Z ACROSS TILLMAN/COMANCHE/GRADY COUNTIES OK BASED UPON MESONET TRENDS BENEATH SW-NE ORIENTED PRECIPITATION BAND/S. ..GUYER.. 02/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 35219631 33989628 33509672 33459740 33629804 34119905 34629910 35069881 35559800 35629749 35549684 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 05:51:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 00:51:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502020554.j125sKRv028655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020553 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-021200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN OK...NWRN AR...SWRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 020553Z - 021200Z A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE THREAT AREA OVER EXTREME NERN OK/EXTREME NWRN AR/EXTREME SWRN MO BEGINNING FROM SW TO NE NEAR 09Z. INTENSIFYING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING JET STREAK AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH COOLER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCAL TRAPPED COOLER AIR WITHIN HIGHER TERRAIN TO SUPPORT LOCAL MODERATE SNOW. AREAS EXPERIENCING MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH TO ALL SNOW WITHIN MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION BANDS. NAM AND RUC FORECASTS BOTH SUGGEST MOST INTENSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE THREAT AREA AFTER 09Z. ETA MICROPHYSICS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW WITHIN THIS AREA OF MORE INTENSE FORCING. ..SCHNEIDER.. 02/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35889521 36239525 36559481 36739414 36759340 36619293 36319275 35909307 35799352 35689439 35689483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 12:33:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 07:33:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502021235.j12CZiMh016922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021234 MOZ000-021630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST WED FEB 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 021234Z - 021630Z MESOSCALE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD ECNTRL MO BY 16 UTC. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CNTRL OK EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS TOWARD SRN MO WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MESOSCALE BANDS OF LOCALIZED MODERATE SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP/CONTINUE IN THE THREAT AREA AS 700 MB CIRCULATION MOVES OVER MO/AR BORDER...PLACING WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE AND LOW MOIST POTENTIAL VORTICITY AROUND 700 MB OVER THE THREAT AREA PER 06 UTC NAM FORECAST. LATEST RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP SATURATED LAYER THROUGH DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH MODERATE ASCENT IN THE 800 MB TO 500 MB LAYER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING SUGGEST LOCALIZED MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS. ..BRIGHT.. 02/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... 36709423 37229374 37489333 37829217 37919111 37879057 37599049 37189114 36589314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 01:25:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 20:25:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502030128.j131S1ct014824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030127 VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-030600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CST WED FEB 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIANS OF NC CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 030127Z - 030600Z FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EXPECTED TO INCREASE INVOF NC APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05 IN/HR AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 00Z RUC IN ACCORDANCE WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTS INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY REMAINDER OF EVENING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD AIR REMAINS WEDGED OWING TO NE STATES HIGH PRESSURE...WITH E/NE TRAJECTORIES EVIDENT BELOW 1 KM IN GSP VAD. ACCORDINGLY 00Z RUC/18Z NAM SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SLEET AND/OR FZRA UPON EFFECTIVE SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING INVOF APPALACHIANS...AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER CONTINUES TO EXIST ABOVE SATURATING/SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BASED AROUND/ABOVE 700 MB...THUS CONVECTIVE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO EPISODIC AREAS OF HIGHER SLEET/FZRA RATES. ..GUYER.. 02/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC... 36578135 36438126 35988144 35528193 35028306 34918345 35038368 35368356 35548353 35878272 36158201 36658160 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 06:01:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 01:01:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502030604.j1364Ctx016168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030603 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-031200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN VA...EXTREME WRN NC...EXTREME ERN TN CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 030603Z - 031200Z WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH FREEZING RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN KY IN RUC ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED IN WV IMAGERY. DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CVA AND CONTINUED 700MB WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS DEEP ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. MOISTURE WITH PW ABOVE ONE HALF INCH IS BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON 35KT WINDS EVIDENT GSP VWP WITH NICE WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION VEERING PROFILE NEAR THE NOSE OF LLJ IN RLX VWP. COLDER TEMPERATURES WITHIN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ..SCHNEIDER.. 02/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX... 39098062 39348003 39097935 38207919 37158019 36258139 35418258 35758280 36248232 36908156 38008119 38588099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 12:52:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 07:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502031255.j13CtNao030811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031254 MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-031700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXT ERN WV/WRN VA/WRN MD CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 031254Z - 031700Z A MIX OF MODERATE SNOW OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE THREAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES OVER THE THREAT AREA WITH ONGOING SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 06 UTC NAM FORECAST SHOWS AREA OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 14 AND 17 UTC. ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION IS LIKELY WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS CVA INCREASES FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 15 AND 18 UTC IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE DRY LAYER WITH 12 UTC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGF. THUS...ROOM EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL WET BULB COOLING KEEPING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROZEN THROUGH 18 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 02/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX... 37688087 38137998 38877883 39547876 39647779 39127751 38067865 37157971 37038103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 05:52:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 00:52:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502040555.j145sxYQ020687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040554 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040554 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-041100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CT...CNTRL MA...SRN NH...EXTREME SRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 040554Z - 041100Z AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING OVER THE THREAT AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED RATES BRIEFLY APPROACHING ONE INCH AN HOUR BEFORE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER 09Z. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CURVATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BWI IN RADAR AND WV IMAGERY AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MID LEVEL ASCENT THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY WITH ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES OF OVER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR OBSERVED AT KGON IN A HEAVIER BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE SNOW AREA. NAM PHYSICS SCHEME PRODUCES ALL FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND HOURLY PRECIPITATION FROM 12KM NAM INDICATES PEAK RATES OF 6 TO 8 TENTHS PER HOUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY AROUND 11Z. STRONGEST RATES AND DURATION ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS IN MA AND NRN CT. LOW LEVEL ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN 00Z GYX AND OKX COMBINED WITH FRESHENING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF OVER SOUTHERN ME AND NH. THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION...NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND MODERATE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. ..SCHNEIDER.. 02/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...ALY... 41907300 42327291 42817250 43247171 43687094 43997030 43807005 43137075 42417158 41837236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 17:10:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 12:10:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502041713.j14HDPj0027063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041712 WAZ000-042315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WASHINGTON CASCADE MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 041712Z - 042315Z SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE STEADILY ACROSS THE CASCADE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG TROUGH/FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR NEAR SOME OF THE NRN CASCADE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOPS CONFIRM SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA INDICATING A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OVER WRN/CNTRL WA EARLY TODAY. LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND PUGET SOUND/BELLINGHAM AREA IN THE WAKE OF LEADING BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN CASCADE RANGE WERE ALREADY AROUND 3000 FEET...BUT RISE UP TO BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET FARTHER SOUTH AROUND SMP PER RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS. RUC AND ETA ARE FCSTG FREEZING LEVEL WILL DROP STEADILY THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THE CNTRL WA CASCADES AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADE RANGE COINCIDENT WITH THE FALLING SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE...LOW STATIC STABILITY...AND MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY WET SNOW AROUND PASS LEVEL THROUGH 05/00Z. ..CARBIN.. 02/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 48942004 47702080 46502133 46122167 46182209 46912179 47392158 48052152 48332150 48572162 48942194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 7 00:59:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 19:59:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502070102.j1712Kxh022267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070101 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-070600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN KS NEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 070101Z - 070600Z LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL KS NEWD TO NEAR DSM BY 06Z. FURTHER NORTH...A ZONE OF LIGHT-MOD SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NCENTRAL KS NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA. OVERALL LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 IN/HR. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 00Z EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR HUTCHINSON KS NEWD TO NEAR AMES IA. RECENT SWD MOTION OF THIS FRONT AVERAGED AROUND 10 MPH. THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM LAGGED THE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM 30-50 MILES IN KS TO AROUND 20 MILES IN IA. LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AIDED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS NEWD INTO CENTRAL IA THROUGH 06Z. THE 00Z TOP...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING...ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA INDICATE THAT A NARROW ZONE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR CENTERED BETWEEN 850-900 MB EXTENDS SW-NE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SWRN IA. AS THE SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SWD...THROUGH 06Z...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN A 30 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM HUT/GBD NEWD TO NEAR DSM. FARTHER NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR...A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT AND POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL NEB/NCENTRAL KS NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA. ..CROSBIE.. 02/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 41459380 40529542 39099694 38189787 37989832 38649924 40319834 41759530 42139407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 18:03:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 13:03:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502131806.j1DI6awK013565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131805 LAZ000-TXZ000-132000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131805Z - 132000Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WAS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER SE TX AND PARTS OF WRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTS OVERALL THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. INITIAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL IMPULSE/WIND MAX HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED ACROSS NWRN LA THROUGH LATE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN WEST AND NORTH OF HOU. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS /STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME/ BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA WAS SUGGESTING THAT WEAK SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION WILL BE OVERCOME WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF HEATING AND ALLOW STORM UPDRAFTS TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN BY TAPPING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG. UPSTREAM IMPULSE VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY OVER WEST TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WOULD SUGGEST A GRADUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..CARBIN.. 02/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29099519 28939640 29469678 30229656 31259643 31829628 32189568 32469420 31009349 29999349 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 18:50:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 13:50:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502131854.j1DIs3d0003594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131853 WIZ000-MNZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN WI AND E-CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 131853Z - 132300Z AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN WI AND E-CENTRAL MN. FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05"/HR ARE POSSIBLE. THROUGH 14/00Z...ELONGATED AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AND COINCIDENT DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD AT 10-15 KT THROUGH THE CENTRAL/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEFORMATION ZONE IS LOCATED ON NRN FRINGE OF WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH AND NE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN MO. ANTECEDENT AIR MASS HAS BEEN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN MN SEWD TO SRN WI. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS E-CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL/NRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH OVER ERN ONTARIO SHOULD ALLOW WET BULB TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN AND ISOLATED SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSH TO EAU TO STC BEGINNING AROUND 13/21Z. MARGINAL GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT ICING TO ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL WI/E-CENTRAL MN WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY OF GROUND-BASED ICING ACROSS NRN WI AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS NWD TOWARD 14/00Z. ..BANACOS.. 02/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44519006 44939144 45619365 45859393 46259393 46709366 46869338 46779263 46319110 45979017 45618946 45338878 45028815 44758787 44338761 43998768 43868802 44118874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 23:05:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 18:05:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502132309.j1DN942C025341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132307 LAZ000-TXZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX AND EXTREME WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132307Z - 140100Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH ABOUT 14/02Z...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF DIFFUSE SFC WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE. THIS BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z NEAR A CRP-CLL-PRX LINE AND WILL MOVE EWD 15-20 KT ACROSS E TX. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL TOWERS GLACIATING JUST E OF CLL...AND OTHER SMALLER TCU NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY TO NEAR TYR. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG W EDGE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...AND IN ZONE OF VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. PROFILER DATA NEAR CLL/PAT...HGX VWP DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS ALL SUGGEST WLY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE NEAR BOUNDARY AND ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN ADJACENT MOIST SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONG MIDLEVEL DPVA AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH ARE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES INVOF WIND SHIFT ZONE...AND COMBINING WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO YIELD AROUND 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF COOLING ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TSTMS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30909402 30059484 29759578 29959640 30279654 30719631 32689451 32649391 31939348 31129385 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 00:19:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 19:19:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502140023.j1E0N4i7024779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140022 MIZ000-140615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 140022Z - 140615Z MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 03Z. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS OF LOWER MI. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS SRN LOWER MI BY 06Z...AND INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS BY 09Z. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NERN MO AT 14/00Z WILL TRACK NEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 14/09Z. A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL OH. DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE MARKED BY A LEADING DEFORMATION ZONE PROGRESSING SLOWLY NNEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA AT 10-15 KT. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NRN IL...NRN IND...AND SRN LOWER MI IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. VAD WIND PROFILES AT GRR AND IWX INDICATE STRONG VEERING AND SLY 1 KM FLOW OF 45-50 KT. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE MUCH OF THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MI ARE COLDER AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SNOW OR SLEET DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...INCREASING ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 900-750MB SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INITIALLY BETWEEN 10-15F SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE DIABATIC COOLING AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. ICING MAY BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL MI WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING BUT WILL LIKELY INCLUDE GROUND SURFACES ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WHERE THE COLDEST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS EXIST /TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S/. GUIDANCE FROM RUC AND NAM GENERALLY SUPPORT HOURLY FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.1". ..BANACOS.. 02/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42788460 43188628 43798657 45018606 45698501 45508401 45138328 44238287 43668256 42918254 42688283 42668358 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 05:48:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 00:48:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502140551.j1E5p9nN009430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140550 MIZ000-141045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 140550Z - 141045Z EXPECT MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD NWD FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI AND THUMB ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...EXTREME ERN UPPER MI...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS LH/LM...THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z. SNOW RATES 2 INCH/HR ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES. MEANWHILE...40-60 NM WIDE ZONE OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS EVIDENT AT 530Z IN SNOW-RAIN TRANSITION ZONE BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY THE LINE MBL...MKG...MTC...ARB... JXN...MBL. THIS MIXED PRECIP ZONE WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS THUMB...SAGINAW BAY...HTL AND TVC AREAS DURING SAME PERIOD. FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND .10-.25 INCH/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SRN PORTION OF THIS TRANSITION ZONE SHOULD PASS N OF MTC...FNT...LAN AND GRR AREAS BY ABOUT 08Z...ENDING SFC ICING AS RAIN CONTINUES. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE SFC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER MI -- PARTICULARLY IN 850 700 MB LAYER -- COINCIDING WITH EWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM CENTRAL/SERN LOWER MI NEWD ACROSS LH. AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/WRN LOWER MI CONTINUES TO SATURATE...SFC EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE MINIMIZED...THEN OFFSET BY COMBINATION OF WAA AND SENSIBLE HEATING DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER RAIN FALLING FROM ABOVE. THEREFORE EXPECT FREEZING LINE TO DRIFT NWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI...ACCOMPANIED BY CHANGE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN. HOWEVER...TRANSITION TO RAIN WILL BE MUCH SLOWER OVER ERN LOWER MI...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY ADVECTION FROM ONT WILL DELAY WARMING OF WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND CONTRIBUTE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS RAIN FALLS INTO LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 02/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT... 42428268 42268371 42538465 43388619 44388693 45228642 46468549 46848494 46808478 46628464 46498458 46448449 46478445 46488440 46478427 46418418 46388416 46318413 46248411 46178405 46098397 46068389 46088382 46138372 46098355 46028348 45938347 45858351 45718345 45448303 44508235 43838219 43148233 43008240 42918245 42858247 42818246 42758247 42708248 42648251 42578258 42498268 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 18:08:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 13:08:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502141811.j1EIBB1Z009556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141809 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NRN NY...WRN MA...AND VT CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 141809Z - 150015Z A FAST-MOVING TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NY...WRN MA...AND VT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THREAT EXISTS FOR FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN NY AND PORTIONS OF VT. AT 18Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER /995MB/ CONTINUES TO TRACK NNEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SHOULD REACH JAMES BAY BY 06Z. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A RATHER COMPLEX STRUCTURE TO THE ASSOCIATED FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRONOUNCED DRYING NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED BY THE RUC TO AQUIRE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION BY 15/00Z. RESULT WILL BE MARKED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH SLY 850MB WINDS OF 70-75 KTS ACROSS ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THE PREVAILING DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULT IN A MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION ZONE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. INITIAL SURGE OF WARM SURFACE AIR APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS WRN PA/WRN NY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS ERN NY/WRN MA AND ESPECIALLY VT. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANGE FROM SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AT GFL AND RUT AROUND 23Z...WITH SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN ALONG A LINE FROM SLK TO MPV AROUND 02Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN CT RIVER VALLEY/NERN VT THROUGH 03Z. PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN THE N-S ORIENTED HUDSON AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. HOWEVER...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD PERSIST IN MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN NY AND VT THROUGH 03Z. ..BANACOS.. 02/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42787273 42407294 42217312 42217337 42317392 42507431 42817460 43067487 43347505 43647508 43877508 44357501 44747492 45007483 44967407 45027294 45037201 44977158 44627157 44467169 44337199 43367249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 18:53:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 13:53:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502151856.j1FIuhvU016065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151855 MIZ000-152300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 151855Z - 152300Z RAIN WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW NEAR 21Z OVER SWRN MI...AND WILL CHANGE TO HEAVY WET SNOW OVER THE REMAINING AREA AROUND 00Z. LOCAL SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR MAY MATERIALIZE BY 00Z. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE ALONG W-E ORIENTAL FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UVVS WITHIN 600-550 MB LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT AND PROLONGED PRODUCTION OF DENDRITES ALOFT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 18Z...COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND COOLING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. ..JEWELL.. 02/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 42488315 42438355 42348468 42308630 42678622 42948621 43148504 43278411 43628257 43258254 43018238 42798250 42558285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 19:45:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502151948.j1FJmHVg024246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151947 COR MIZ000-152300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 151947Z - 152300Z RAIN WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW NEAR 21Z OVER W-CNTRL MI...AND WILL CHANGE TO HEAVY WET SNOW OVER THE REMAINING AREA AROUND 00Z. LOCAL SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR MAY MATERIALIZE BY 00Z. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE ALONG W-E ORIENTAL FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UVVS WITHIN 600-550 MB LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT AND PROLONGED PRODUCTION OF DENDRITES ALOFT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 18Z...COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND COOLING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. ..JEWELL.. 02/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 42488315 42438355 42348468 42308630 42678622 42948621 43148504 43278411 43628257 43258254 43018238 42798250 42558285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 21:23:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 16:23:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502152126.j1FLQZvt006737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152125 ILZ000-MOZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL TO E CENTRAL MO AND SW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152125Z - 152330Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 22-23Z ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR TBN TO NEAR STL. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WHILE SPREADING EWD INTO IL...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT AS OF 20Z FROM NEAR THE COLD FRONT/REMNANT LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION ENEWD TO NEAR STL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S THIS AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50 F...RESULTING IN UNCAPPED PROFILES WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 750 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. ..THOMPSON.. 02/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 38439175 38869061 39408991 39498940 39258901 38708885 37848986 37189120 36999206 37309258 37629255 37999223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 12:44:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 07:44:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502161248.j1GCm70B011760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161247 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-161645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA/WRN THROUGH NERN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 161247Z - 161645Z ...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NY AND SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NERN NY THIS MORNING WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH... SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE NEAR BFD SWWD TO AGC/PKB WITH A WARM FRONT NEWD ACROSS SERN NY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IN/IL APPROACHES THE AREA. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NY AFTER 15Z. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING FROM GKJ/BUF...WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES OBSERVED AT BUF. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BANDING OF SNOW THIS MORNING. ISOLD LTG FROM THE NLDN AND IN THE DKK OBSERVATION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF SNOW BANDS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/ROC/IAG INDICATE PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE ISOTHERMAL WITH TIME WITH STRONG LIFT CONCENTRATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN NY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO CNTRL NY AND NRN VT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 02/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 45077376 44807532 43437887 42008026 41568022 41317865 41467717 43367453 44337339 44547324 44947328 45047348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 20:26:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 15:26:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502182029.j1IKTjpf026628@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182028 CAZ000-182230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 182028Z - 182230Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR/EAST OF THE COASTAL RANGES... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO/SACRAMENTO/FRESNO. SOME MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES...FROM THE SANTA MARIA AREA NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS... BENEATH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH/EAST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AREA... AND INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL RANGES WILL AID FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL SOMEWHAT ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 02/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 37712220 38182157 37892085 37242001 36751981 36341977 35701984 35412022 35752069 36382155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 11:51:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 06:51:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191154.j1JBsxSN000474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191154 COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-191600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN CO...FAR SERN UT...AND FAR N-CENTRAL NM...ABOVE 6500 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191154Z - 191600Z HEAVY SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND ADJACENT AREAS ABOVE 6500 FT IN SWRN CO/SERN UT/N-CENTRAL NM. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH AND SW FACING SLOPES. DOWNSTREAM OF STAGNANT UPPER LOW ALONG THE CA COAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD AT 45KT ACROSS AZ EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY SRN BRANCH FLOW. IR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE. EMBEDDED CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR/OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION AREA APPEARS COINCIDENT WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF 65-70KT 500MB JET IN RUC GUIDANCE. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD IMPACTING THE DISCUSSION AREA BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD FAVOR SWWD FACING SLOPES WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. RUC AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...LIKELY ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION AND PROSPECTS FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SNOW ELEMENTS AND ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDERSNOW. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF 2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 19/21Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS REMAINING NEAR 6500 FT OVER MOST SECTIONS OF THE SWRN CO/SERN UT THROUGH 21Z WITH SNOW LEVELS OF 7000-7500 FT ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL NM. ..BANACOS.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... 37710645 37280622 36750609 36500616 36470650 36750711 37050743 37040846 37120957 37520964 37990938 38430899 38570856 38630809 38710759 38710717 38400690 38210675 37910656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 12:51:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 07:51:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191254.j1JCsMD5001648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191253 CAZ000-191500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...L.A. BASIN AREA OF SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191253Z - 191500Z ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE FROM CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO FORM INVOF ERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND MOVE ASHORE COASTAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT THREAT TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS ORANGE...SERN L.A. AND EXTREME NWRN SAN DIEGO COUNTIES THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS. OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...AND BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER LOCATED OVER PACIFIC APPROXIMATELY 100 SW LAX AS OF 1230Z. AS THIS FEATURE APCHS...LOW-MIDLEVEL GRADIENT FLOW IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS REGION PER VWP TRENDS...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BOUNDARY LAYER RESPONSE HAS ENLARGED 0-1 AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS ALSO. EXPECT 75-125 J/KG SRH THROUGH 0-1 KM AGL LAYER TO BE MAINTAINED UNTIL VORT LOBE MOVES ASHORE AT APPROXIMATELY 15Z. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SLIGHTLY IN MIDLEVELS AS WELL...YIELDING MUCAPES UP TO 400 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. STORM SCALE ROTATION ALREADY APPARENT WITH CELLS NEAR ERN CATALINA AND SAN CLEMENTE ISLANDS MAY INTENSIFY BECAUSE OF FRICTIONAL/CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS THEY MOVE INLAND...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER S MAY FOLLOW SIMILAR MORPHOLOGY AS WELL AS ENTIRE REGIME SHIFTS EWD. ..EDWARDS.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX... 32581871 33521841 34061812 34131779 34061746 33501739 33181747 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 16:57:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 11:57:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191700.j1JH0TIL003196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191659 CAZ000-191900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA COASTAL AREAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191659Z - 191900Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST NEAR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THREAT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST ONSET OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL NOT OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN WATERS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. AS LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THREAT FOR STRONGER CELLS MOVING ASHORE MAY SHIFT FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE LOS ANGELES AREA INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SAN DIEGO. THOUGH CAPE IS GENERALLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS...MODERATELY STRONG AND VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ROTATION. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND SOME HAIL...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH WITH INCREASING INHIBITION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 33721818 33641768 33361733 32931714 32591721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 18:15:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 13:15:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191818.j1JIInqn021819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191817 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV...SE CA...WRN AZ CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 191817Z - 192045Z LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...AND MID- LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR NEEDLES CA/KINGMAN AZ AREAS...AND REMAINING INHIBITION LIKELY WILL WEAKEN WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME. ISOLATED CELLS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL WHICH MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 35911560 36291459 36251347 35611249 34521240 33461250 32981317 33021359 33651414 33661466 34071521 34971572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 18:51:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 13:51:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502191854.j1JIscA3025053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191853 COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW CO/NRN NM/EXTREME SE UT MTNS ABOVE 6500 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191853Z - 192300Z HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SE UT/SW CO/NRN NM MTNS ABOVE 6500-7000 FT. RATES OF 2 IN/HR OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8000 FT/ WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6500-7000 FT AT 18Z...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OBSERVED AT DRO BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. HEAVY SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED AT CPW /10K FT/ OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF MINORING CA TROUGH...DYNAMIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT INTO SW FACING SLOPES OWING TO 40-60 KT MID LEVEL JET. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM OR GREATER WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW. 12Z NAM/15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... 37650631 37280622 36800617 36410615 36280654 36340741 37020778 37290856 37480909 37660943 38040953 38520917 38750852 38840822 38750735 38500706 38250682 37910656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 23:20:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 18:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502192323.j1JNNvAH013144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192322 AZZ000-CAZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OF FAR ERN CA/SW AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192322Z - 200045Z THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10/8 CORRIDORS. ON PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN CA...MATURING CLOUD TOPS/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICT STRENGTHENING/ORGANIZING TSTMS IN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 W/SW OF BLH. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IN THE VALLEY IS CHARACTERIZED MID/UPPER 60S F TEMPS WITH MID/UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 750-1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES BENEATH 40-50 KTS OF W/SW MID LEVEL FLOW /PER AREA VWPS/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. ..GUYER.. 02/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32841545 34121535 34791473 34931396 34611327 33971293 32841312 32621335 32551436 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 01:35:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 20:35:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502200138.j1K1cdbk019388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200137 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/NE SD AND SRN/WCNTRL MN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 200137Z - 200530Z SNOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SE ND/NE SD INTO MUCH OF SRN/WCNTRL MN THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE. FZRA/SLEET TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AND EXPAND EWD IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN WY/WRN SD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...INCREASING 850-700 MB WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME TO CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE ND/NE SD AND WCNTRL/SRN MN THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE UVVS/DENDRITIC PROFILES...18Z NAM/21Z RUC PORTRAY INCREASING PRESENCE OF WEAK STABILITY/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT THROUGH THE EVENING...SUGGESTING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED BANDING AND 1 IN/HR SNOW RATES. WITH CONTINUAL ADVECTION OF ELEVATED WARM LAYER AS SAMPLED IN 00Z OAX/00Z ABR RAOBS...18Z NAM/21Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SLEET AND/OR FZRA MAY BECOME MORE BECOME MORE PREVALENT/SPREAD EWD IN A CORRIDOR FROM ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ..GUYER.. 02/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46540000 46719815 46499554 45769419 44819299 43909261 43429312 43599650 43909740 45089927 45490052 46230078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 06:08:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 01:08:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502200611.j1K6BMPr007059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200610 WIZ000-MNZ000-201015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL MN...AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 200610Z - 201015Z AXIS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WI DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES TO 1"/HR ARE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL...EMBEDDED BANDS. AT 05Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN NEB PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS SERN SD...FAR SRN MN...AND ACROSS SRN WI. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT...WITH FOCUSED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN 800-600MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI. APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. ADDITIONALLY...RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASINGLY DEEP/SATURATED DENDRITE GROWTH /-12C TO -16C/ LAYERS WHICH SHOULD MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 1"/HR IN A BAND FROM MSP SEWD TO BETWEEN LSE/EAU AND TO MKE/OSH AREA. SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LESS NORTH OF A BRD TO GRB LINE...WHERE SUPPLY OF LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR WILL CAUSE SUBLIMATION OF SNOWFALL AND A SHARP NRN EDGE TO HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ..BANACOS.. 02/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR... 42778750 43639109 44669439 45209628 45889641 46349607 46089391 44979039 44228824 43938753 43408753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 11:59:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 06:59:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502201202.j1KC2EE7026564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201201 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-201700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WI...AND CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 201201Z - 201700Z AXIS OF PREDOMINATELY MODERATE SNOW WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 18Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES IN A 40-50NM WIDE BAND FROM BETWEEN EAU/LSE TO BETWEEN MKE/SBM TO FNT/ARB VICINITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER MI BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. ONGOING WARM-ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS JUST NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN MN ACROSS SRN WI AND NEAR THE BORDER OF MI AND IND/OH. SYNOPTIC UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD INTO WRN MN AND A FAST MOVING SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA. THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION/SCATTERED CG LIGHTNING AS OF 1150Z...AND SHOULD LEAD TO MORE VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS MORNING. A MARKED INCREASE IN UVV AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT IS EVIDENT IN RUC/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILES AT CHICAGO AND INDIANAPOLIS...WITH SLY 0-1KM WINDS AROUND 40KT. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BEGIN A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 18-21Z. TO THE NORTH...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOCUSED ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL LESSENING OF SNOW RATES EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI. ..BANACOS.. 02/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44278796 43508457 42878258 42578279 41818331 41818493 41988662 43198945 43639109 43809179 44179238 45079274 45459187 44979039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 00:59:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 19:59:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210102.j1L12fat003056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210101 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-210500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA AND SW/SCNTRL NY CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 210101Z - 210500Z MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN NY AND CNTRL/ERN PA THIS EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. SNOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FZRA/SLEET ACROSS WCNTRL PA PRIOR TO 06Z. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD OVER LWR MI/SW ONTARIO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL CONTINUALLY SPREAD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF SW NY AND NRN/CNTRL PA EXPECTED TO INTENSITY THROUGH 03Z-06Z AS INCREASING UVVS COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER. FURTHERMORE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /600-800 MB/ COINCIDENT WITH WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY -- INCLUDING RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN WCNTRL PA -- SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW RATES WITH EMBEDDED NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS. 00Z PIT RAOB FEATURED 6.9 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. ACROSS WCNTRL PA...ELEVATED 700-850 MB WARM LAYER SEEN IN 00Z PIT RAOB WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SHALLOW/BELOW 1 KM FREEZING LAYER. ACCORDINGLY 18Z NAM/21Z RUC/09Z SREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO FZRA/SLEET IN 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME WITHIN DUJ/PSB/AOO CORRIDOR. ..GUYER.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... 43297812 42677619 41937512 40597541 39867641 39717782 39877855 40777933 41287975 42057971 42597933 43067886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 02:49:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 21:49:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210252.j1L2qRGB004327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210251 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-210445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN MO / EXTREME ERN OK / NRN AND CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210251Z - 210445Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SRN MO...AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN AR. PARTS OF AR ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WEAKLY-ROTATING / MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN MO...FROM HOWELL COUNTY MO WSWWD TO CARROLL COUNTY AR. THIS LINE SHOULD PERSIST / SAG SLOWLY SWD INTO MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SWD. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE ACROSS WRN AR...ALL WITHIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE / CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN KS / NWRN OK. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AS QG FORCING STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ACT TO PARTIALLY OFFSET SEVERE THREAT -- AT LEAST IN TERMS OF DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN AR...AND ITS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED MARGINAL HAIL / WIND THREAT -- WOULD LIKELY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 36229431 36829144 36499110 35509123 34399286 34319411 34489445 35189468 36009481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 05:19:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 00:19:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210522.j1L5MtW6024722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210522 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210522 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-210715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK INTO NRN AND CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19... VALID 210522Z - 210715Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NRN AND CNTRL AR THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHER STORMS NOW OVER N CNTRL OK MAY STRENGTHEN/SPREAD E INTO NE OK AND NRN AR LATER TONIGHT. WW 19 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NE OK AND NE AR. A FEW SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NRN AND CNTRL AR THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IN ZONE OF WEAK CONFLUENCE/INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO NE AR DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. FARTHER W...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER N CNTRL OK TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NE PART OF THE STATE...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX/UVV FIELD ENCOUNTERS SURFACE FRONT NOW BECOMING STNRY OVER REGION. GIVEN 50+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/...THE ISOLATED AR STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY FARTHER W MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS STORM GUST FRONTS CONTINUE TO MERGE AND ACCELERATE EWD. ..CORFIDI.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 36709522 36689618 36299639 35729640 35169597 34659491 34469348 34629115 34889031 35868974 36539007 36669345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 06:07:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 01:07:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210610.j1L6A43V015380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210609 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-211015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MA...CT...RI...SRN NH...SRN VT...ERN/SERN NY...NERN PA...AND NRN NJ CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 210609Z - 211015Z WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN/SERN NY...NERN PA...AND NRN NJ WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY SNOW...THOUGH SOME MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF NRN NJ/LONG ISLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK. AT 0530Z...STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF PRIMARY 1006MB LOW OVER SERN MI WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO ALONG AN AXIS FROM ALB TO ACK BY 21/15Z. PHASING OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE WITH TROUGH TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN ENTRAINMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THE PRE-EXISTING ARCTIC HIGH OVER NRN ME HAS ESTABLISHED FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY FAST MOTION OF SYSTEM AND 50-60KT 850MB FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO BAROCLINIC ZONE. PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY VERY DEEP...SATURATED DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER /-12C TO -16C/ WHICH IS EVIDENT IN RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NY INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INITIAL DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OVERCOME RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. SOME MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION IS OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHES INTO ARCTIC RIDGE ACROSS ME/NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SHOULD ACT TO QUICKEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING. ANTICIPATE A RATHER UNIFORM AND WIDESPREAD REGION OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SECONDARY PRESSURE FALL CENTER OF 2.5MB/2HR IS NOTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA WHERE SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS SECONDARY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE TOWARD DAYBREAK EAST OF NJ. LOW-LEVEL ELY/SELY ONSHORE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ALONG THE COAST OF NRN NJ/LONG ISLAND CAUSING A LOCALIZED MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN TOWARD 12Z. ..BANACOS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 41196980 40577205 40347433 40597515 41177569 41717583 42367589 42847567 43187512 43167307 43107139 42937049 42256971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 08:08:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 03:08:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502210811.j1L8BmSJ008305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210810 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-210945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...WRN TN...MO BOOTHEEL...EXTREME NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...20... VALID 210810Z - 210945Z BOW ECHO MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 55 KT ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN AR MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL AS IT CROSSES OZARKS OF NRN AR. 46 KT GUST REPORTED AT SFC STATION SLG...44 KT AT XNA. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NEAR SEARCY/NEWTON COUNTY LINE IN ANOTHER HOUR WHEN WW 19 EXPIRES. WW 19 MAY NEED LOCAL EXTENSION OR REPLACEMENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS...COVERING N-CENTRAL AR COUNTIES IN ITS PATH FROM NEWTON EWD. MUCAPES 1500-1800 J/KG INDICATED OVER REGION WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT SHIFTING EWD WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY ACROSS NRN AR...ALONG WEAK E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY LEFT BY EARLIER CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL -- AN INCH OR LESS DIAMETER -- HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM ACTIVITY NOW CROSSING SEVERAL COUNTIES OF WRN TN BETWEEN MEM-DYR. THESE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD 30-35 KT TOWARD N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW ANALYZED INVOF HAYWOOD/MADISON COUNTY LINE...JUST W MKL. ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURE WITH INTERMITTENT EMBEDDED ELEMENTS OF CYCLONIC SHEAR...A MORPHOLOGY WHICH GENERALLY SHOULD CONTINUE AND WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW-END SEVERE HAIL. TSTMS ARE MOVING EWD FASTER THAN WARM FRONT AND WILL ROSS IT INVOF MKL. SOME BRIEF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 10-20 NM E OF SFC WARM FRONT...WHERE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE ELEVATED MUCAPE 1800 J/KG NEAR MKL...TRENDING TO NEAR 1300 J/KG AROUND BNA. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OHX...HUN...PAH... 34369449 36499448 36529137 34369136 34669138 36419141 36488802 34728803 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 10:08:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 05:08:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211011.j1LABJjk001730@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211010 CAZ000-211315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA INCLUDING WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 211010Z - 211315Z PLUME OF MDT AND EMBEDDED HEAVY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN ORANGE AND SWRN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND SPREAD INLAND PORTIONS WRN SAN DIEGO AND EXTREME WRN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. RAIN RATES COMMONLY AROUND 1-1.5 INCH/HOUR ARE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES/HOUR OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE INDICATED IN VWP FROM NKX...INCLUDING DEEP 30-40 KT LLJ THAT WILL MAXIMIZE LIFT AND RAINFALL OVER STEEPEST FACING SLOPES. MODIFIED 00Z NKX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERE...CHARACTERIZED BY .75-1 INCH PW. ALSO...MUCAPES 100-200 J/KG NEAR COASTLINE WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO RAIN RATES...INCLUDING A FEW TSTMS. ACCORDINGLY...SEVERAL CG LTG STRIKES HAVE BEEN INDICATED S OF SAN CLEMENT ISLAND AND W SAN DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS...IN OFFSHORE PORTION OF PRECIP PLUME. AS BAROCLINIC BAND ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD...SO WILL PRECIP PLUME...CAUSING THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS TO COVER MORE OF REGION FROM SAN NWD OVER WRN RIVERSIDE COUNTY. VWP HODOGRAPH INDICATES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR LOW-TOP SUPERCELLS...GIVEN SHAPE/DEPTH OF RUC-DERIVED CAPE PROFILES. SRH IN 0-1 KM IS OVER 200 J/KG GIVEN RIGHT-MOVING CELL. HOWEVER...WHILE NOT ZERO...TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOWER THAN TWO MORNINGS AGO BECAUSE OF LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE FOR SUSTAINED STORM SCALE ROTATION -- EMBEDDED INSTEAD OF DISCRETE CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 33591789 33911772 34281757 34311716 34041687 33481683 32541688 32541714 32641785 33371797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 10:27:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 05:27:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211030.j1LAUkjm011820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211029 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-211230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...EXTREME NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20...21... VALID 211029Z - 211230Z ONE OR BOTH WWS MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY 12Z WITH A NEW SEVERE TSTM WW BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND FAVORABLE INFLOW AIR MASS. SEVERE TSTM LINE...WITH EMBEDDED BOW AND LEWP FORMATIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD 50-55 KT...LOCALLY FASTER NEAR APEX OF BOWS. WIND DAMAGE IS MAIN THREAT WITH SPORADIC LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY CROSSES REMAINDER WW 19 AND ENTERS WRN PORTION WW 20. THIS LINE MAY BACKBUILD FAR ENOUGH S TO AFFECT EXTREME NRN MS...SO UNTIL LINE PASSES OR WW REPLACEMENT IS NECESSARY...MS PORTION WW 20 SHOULD BE KEPT VALID AS WELL. WW 19...MEANWHILE...CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND MCS. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN AR CONVECTION AND SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED AT 10Z ROUGHLY N-S THROUGH MKL. IN THIS WEDGE OF WARM SECTOR AIR...MUCAPE 1300-1800 J/KG IS INDICATED...BASED ON RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. VWP INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE...CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VEERING BUT 40-50 KT VECTOR SHEAR THROUGH 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 34669138 36419141 36488802 34728803 35259314 36539310 36479093 35209099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 11:11:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 06:11:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211114.j1LBEbSp002523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211113 KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-211315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22... VALID 211113Z - 211315Z SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS WW WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER WRN TN IN WARM SECTOR AND MOVE INTO WW AS WELL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ALIGNED N-S THROUGH MKL AREA...THEN CURVING SEWD ACROSS NRN AL NEAR HSV. ACTIVITY IN WW WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE...PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AIR MASS ABOVE WARM FRONTAL LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 1200 J/KG NEAR AND W OF BNA...TO AROUND 600 J/KG INVOF CSV. 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NOTED THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF CAPE BEARING LAYER. EXPECT GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AND LESSENING OF POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...BUT OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR E AS CSV. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35008802 36328800 36688501 35418500 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 13:48:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 08:48:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211351.j1LDpeNL006906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211350 ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-211445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN AND MID TN...NERN AR...EXTREME NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22...23... VALID 211350Z - 211445Z PRONOUNCED BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD 50-60 KT FROM NWRN TN INTO NRN MID TN. TRAILING LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION EXTENDS SWWD TO MS/TN BORDER AND MAY BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME NRN MS. CONTINUE PRECONVECTIVE PORTIONS WW UNTIL SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OR PASSAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER. NERN MS...MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW DURING NEXT HOUR. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT FROM NEAR ANB NWWD TO ABOUT 50 N MSL. NRN BOWING SEGMENT WILL OUTRUN WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STABLE LAYER NE OF WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE GETTING MORE SHALLOW BASED ON REGIONAL VWP...RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z BNA RAOB. BROAD REAR-INFLOW JET IS EVIDENT JUST BEHIND BOW...CHARACTERIZED BY 50-70 KT FLOW IN 7-10 KFT AGL LAYER. THEREFORE...PRIND POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC ACROSS BNA AREA...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E OF BNA AND OVER DEEPER STABLE LAYER. FARTHER SW...CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO BEING SFC BASED WITH MUCAPES 1300-1700 J/KG AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH FLOW IS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH DEEP LAYER...STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP INDICATE UP TO 70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDMORNING OVER NERN MS...NRN AL AND MID TN. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND LINE BECAUSE OF STABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL CAA. THEREFORE WWS CAN BE CLEARED NW OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...MRX...LMK... 34339086 36399090 36578802 34578805 35008804 36348802 36708504 35378501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 14:36:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 09:36:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211439.j1LEdRJi016476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211438 CAZ000-211645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0838 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211438Z - 211645Z ROTATING CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO SRN CA THIS MORNING. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH A TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AREA MAY NEED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LATER THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CELL INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN SRN CA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE 12Z SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWS VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES JUST ABOVE 300 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX... 32621715 33431768 34031864 34271974 34592003 34891957 34661790 33911683 32881651 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 16:50:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 11:50:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211653.j1LGrqQP021469@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211652 NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-211845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN TN...WRN NC..NRN GA...NE AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 24... VALID 211652Z - 211845Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO CONTINUES EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN AS THE LINE OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TO ESE FROM SW TN TO NW GA. THE BOW ECHO IS MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 55 KT JUST AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL JET OF 70 KT PUNCHING EWD THROUGH TN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE SRN PART OF THE BOW ECHO...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE OUTRUNS THE SOURCE OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...SOME WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...A MINIMAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT. ANY WIND DAMAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS THE LINE CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34408678 35228486 35938416 36378351 36158281 35408256 34548354 33828534 33848654 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 18:15:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 13:15:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502211818.j1LIIJce004504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211817 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN...NRN AL...FAR NE MS...NW GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211817Z - 212015Z CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NRN GA...SRN TN EXTENDING WWD TO NE MS. AS THE CELLS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT WW WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL STORMS. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34848907 35138747 34938505 34438219 34048137 33558194 33618510 33758654 34258861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 20:46:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:46:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212049.j1LKnSRO003071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212048 CAZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 25... VALID 212048Z - 212215Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN WW 25 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AN UPPER-LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE CA COAST. A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON SUSTAINING STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING IN THE LA BASIN. IN ADDITION...REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 22Z SHOW ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR MINI SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP CREATE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS ROTATING CELLS STRENGTHEN AND MATURE MOVING NWD ACROSS THE LA BASIN. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX... 32621771 33861887 34341931 34491880 34411797 33341710 32661655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 21:45:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 16:45:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212148.j1LLmiVO024557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212147 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...NCNTRL GA...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26... VALID 212147Z - 212345Z A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN GA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN TN INTO NRN GA. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS OF 70 TO 75 F ACROSS NRN MS...NRN AL INTO NCNTRL GA IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER TN IS ENHANCING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS NEAR THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IN NRN AL AND FAR NW GA WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32688178 32848246 33238416 33438812 33578946 34378988 34738891 34638532 34528350 33318106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 21:51:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 16:51:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212154.j1LLsOxd029541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212153 CAZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212153Z - 220000Z TSTMS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST RANGES WEST OF I5...AND AROUND SFO AND THE SACRAMENTO VLY...COULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEST SURFACE HEATING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS HELPED TO BOOST SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM WCNTRL CA COAST INLAND TO I5 AND NORTH TO SAC. AREAS OF DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE... COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES OF INCREASING CONVECTION. STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO KINGS COUNTY ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG REFLECTIVITY NOTED TO THE EAST OF OAKLAND. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION...STRONG BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...COULD RESULT IN HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADO WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 34151903 34141853 35971887 37501982 39082100 39182179 38802253 38282274 38052295 37122236 36362165 35682110 35382083 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 21:54:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 16:54:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212157.j1LLvRsu032138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212147 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...NCNTRL GA...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26... VALID 212147Z - 212345Z A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN GA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN TN INTO NRN GA. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS OF 70 TO 75 F ACROSS NRN MS...NRN AL INTO NCNTRL GA IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER TN IS ENHANCING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS NEAR THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IN NRN AL AND FAR NW GA WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32688178 32848246 33238416 33438812 33578946 34378988 34738891 34638532 34528350 33318106  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 21:57:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 16:57:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212200.j1LM0Bxm001864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212158 MSZ000-ARZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW MS AND ECNTRL/SE AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212158Z - 212330Z TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE PROGRESSIVELY WWD THROUGH NCNTRL/NW MS AND POSSIBLY INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WSWLY FEED AHEAD OF SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO DRIVE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE MS ATTM...AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WWD ACROSS NW MS INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SEMI-CONCENTRATED CU/TCU FIELD FROM JUST E/NE OF PBF TO 35 N OF TUP. IN SPITE OF NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES...AS EVIDENCE OF MIXING SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL AR...SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LESS CERTAIN PROGRESSIVELY WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST. IN SPITE OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...40-60 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS ABOVE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG -- WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH. ..GUYER.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34818995 34588945 33548943 33419012 33419183 34339205 34619124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 22:08:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 17:08:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212211.j1LMBH3g011468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212153 CAZ000-220000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212153Z - 220000Z TSTMS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST RANGES WEST OF I5...AND AROUND SFO AND THE SACRAMENTO VLY...COULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEST SURFACE HEATING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS HELPED TO BOOST SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM WCNTRL CA COAST INLAND TO I5 AND NORTH TO SAC. AREAS OF DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE... COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES OF INCREASING CONVECTION. STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO KINGS COUNTY ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG REFLECTIVITY NOTED TO THE EAST OF OAKLAND. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION...STRONG BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...COULD RESULT IN HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADO WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 34151903 34141853 35971887 37501982 39082100 39182179 38802253 38282274 38052295 37122236 36362165 35682110 35382083  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 22:17:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 17:17:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212220.j1LMKBl6018035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212158 MSZ000-ARZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW MS AND ECNTRL/SE AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212158Z - 212330Z TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE PROGRESSIVELY WWD THROUGH NCNTRL/NW MS AND POSSIBLY INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WSWLY FEED AHEAD OF SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO DRIVE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE MS ATTM...AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WWD ACROSS NW MS INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SEMI-CONCENTRATED CU/TCU FIELD FROM JUST E/NE OF PBF TO 35 N OF TUP. IN SPITE OF NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES...AS EVIDENCE OF MIXING SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL AR...SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LESS CERTAIN PROGRESSIVELY WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST. IN SPITE OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...40-60 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS ABOVE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG -- WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH. ..GUYER.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34818995 34588945 33548943 33419012 33419183 34339205 34619124  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 22:48:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 17:48:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212251.j1LMpm5W008339@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212250 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN GA AND NRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212250Z - 212345Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN GA. WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS REGION...WITH GREATER SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN AL/NRN HALF OF GA INTO SC. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL NEWD INTO CENTRAL GA. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35-40 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS. STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS PRIOR TO AIR MASS STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY FOR HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31048763 31588716 32538473 33148368 32878176 31928193 31148341 30838467 30838679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 23:46:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 18:46:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502212349.j1LNnO2C018232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212348 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-220015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL AL...NRN/CENTRAL GA/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26... VALID 212348Z - 220015Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL GA INTO NRN/ CENTRAL AL AND SRN SC. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN SC WNWWD TO NWRN GA/NWRN AL...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LOCATED OVER NRN GA FROM FORSYTH TO BARTOW COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS TN VALLEY AND WSWLY INFLOW LLJ WILL MAINTAIN CONVERGENCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY AXIS. ..PETERS.. 02/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34288427 33328069 32598030 31738112 32348344 33168556 33368803 34458816 34668779 34558624 34438516 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 03:42:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 22:42:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502220344.j1M3itVN012575@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220343 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-220515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AL/GA INTO SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...29... VALID 220343Z - 220515Z A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 06-07Z... WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AL/GA INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS WSWLY 30 KT LLJ IMPINGES ON WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN SC WNWWD OVER CENTRAL GA TO CENTRAL AL AND NRN MS. DESPITE DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...INFLOW OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING TO THE ESE INTO CENTRAL GA/SRN SC. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. 00Z RUC/NAM BOTH INDICATED THAT THE LLJ WILL VEER TO THE W/WNW BETWEEN 06-09Z...BECOMING ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID LEVEL JET MOVES AWAY FROM THIS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT AFTER 06-07Z. ..PETERS.. 02/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 33818537 34028383 33688169 33137946 32747976 32238057 31858135 31798382 31768574 32348694 33258809 33598663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 05:27:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 00:27:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502220530.j1M5UCDZ010708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220529 CAZ000-220630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27... VALID 220529Z - 220630Z ISOLATED WATERSPOUT AND/OR TORNADO POSSIBLE THROUGH 08-09Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW. THUS...WW 27 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. IR IMAGERY INDICATED AN APPARENT LEADING AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING N-S ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO OFFSHORE OF SRN CA ACROSS THE GULF OF SANTA CATALINA. THIS ASCENT MAY BE AIDING IN THE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SRN CA...WITH ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/POTENTIAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD 06-07Z OFFSHORE OF SRN CA AS A SECOND AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 33N 122W...APPROACHES THIS REGION. BACKED SURFACE FLOW LOCATED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A BRIEF WATERSPOUT AND/OR TORNADO WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 02/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX... 34341941 34821936 34821757 34361653 32631529 32561731 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 21:31:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 16:31:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502222257.j1MMvD0N022366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222227 TXZ000-NMZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222227Z - 230030Z TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS INVOF OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TCC/AMA/SPS. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM AMA SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR MAF. SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER VALUES FARTHER SOUTH. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE UNDERCUT...STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 02/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35490348 34530313 32950269 31730246 31690111 32919988 34000015 35110051 35750240  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 23:03:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 18:03:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230029.j1N0TAev022140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230028 CAZ000-230230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 30... VALID 230028Z - 230230Z TORNADO/WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TORNADO WATCH 30 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 23/0200Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW BANDS OF LOW TOPPED TSTMS...THOUGH RECENT LIGHTNING DATA HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...GIVEN 20-30 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR OBSERVED BY AREA VAD WIND DATA. SINCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM SAN DIEGO SUPPORTS THE DECREASING INSTABILITY...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8 C/KM WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE CELLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES WILL BE OVER VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES WHERE SE/ELY SFC WINDS WILL ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. ..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...LOX... 34551770 34531983 32591810 32611603 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 00:20:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 19:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230146.j1N1kAHG011180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230145 TXZ000-230245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NORTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31...32... VALID 230145Z - 230245Z ...EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL SPREAD NWD-EWD ACROSS WCNTRL TO NCNTRL PORTIONS OF TX... NWD/EWD - EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW31 INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW32 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NRN PORTION OF THIS CLUSTER IS LIKELY ELEVATED AND SHOULD BECOME MORE SO WITH TIME AS FRONTAL SURGE UNDERCUTS CONVECTION. ONE SIGNIFICANT LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY DROPPED VERY LARGE HAIL IN TAYLOR COUNTY...WHILE OTHER NEAR STATIONARY BACK-BUILDING STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG SRN FRINGE FROM TOM GREEN COUNTY TO COLEMAN COUNTY. UPSTREAM FORCING SHOULD SPREAD INTO THIS REGION LATE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ..DARROW.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31320129 33919989 33669744 31019919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 01:58:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 20:58:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230323.j1N3NxgA010742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230323 OKZ000-TXZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND SCNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230323Z - 230430Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN INTO SCNTRL OK... MOISTURE ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SPREADING NWD INTO SWRN OK AS SHALLOW FRONT SURGES SWD INTO NWRN TX. RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN TX...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY INTO SWRN OK. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL. HOWEVER...STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE SEVERE HAIL HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 34309986 35829910 35469774 33939696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 03:28:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 22:28:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230453.j1N4rRi0002064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230452 OKZ000-TXZ000-230545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK AND NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31...32...33... VALID 230452Z - 230545Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE REISSUED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OK INTO NCNTRL TX... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK. RESULTANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE GIVEN SHEAR/THERMAL PROFILES FOR HAIL-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX/OK. WW WILL BE REISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31659944 36009793 35939525 31859576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 06:18:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 01:18:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502230743.j1N7hKw8003748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230741 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-230945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN/ERN OK...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...PORTIONS WRN AR CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34... VALID 230741Z - 230945Z TSTMS NOW OVER SERN OK ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS WRN AR BY 10Z...LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY CONCERN. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. MEANWHILE SEVERE MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- INCLUDING BOW ECHO OVER PORTIONS COMANCHE/HAMILTON/ERATH COUNTIES AS OF 715Z...WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MCLENNAN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...PRODUCING COMBINATION OF WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL AND EXTREME RAIN RATES OF 3-4 INCHES/HOUR. VWP FROM GRK SHOWS DEEP LAYER OF 30-40 KT LLJ FLOW IN INFLOW REGION OF THIS COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND LARGE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN RUC SOUNDINGS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT W AND NW OF BOW -- TO VICINITY ABI -- SHOULD MOVE ENEWD TO NEWD WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL OK GENERALLY HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER... AIR MASS ABOVE SFC IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SWRN OK BEHIND ONGOING CONVECTIVE SWATH. WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA MAY NOT BE AS VIGOROUS AS FARTHER E WHERE LLJ IS STRONGER...IT STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE/MAINTAIN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO 8-8.5 DEG C/KM RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 OVER WRN PORTION WW 34 FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...THOUGH COVERAGE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS DENSE AS WITH ERN OK AND CENTRAL TX CLUSTERS...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP. ..EDWARDS.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT... 34869464 35939449 35809373 35709349 35469317 35129305 34619313 34099338 33849355 33549412 33379482 31189899 36039860 36029447 31189509 31209870 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 12:26:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 07:26:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231351.j1NDpJf2008519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231350 LAZ000-TXZ000-231545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX AND WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 231350Z - 231545Z DISCUSSION AREA BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ORGANIZED MCS -- CONTAINING SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS...LEWP FORMATIONS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER E TX...SABINE VALLEY AND WRN LA THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY ASSOCIATED MCV ESTIMATED BETWEEN CORSICANA-PALESTINE TX AS OF 1345Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SOME THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING BOWS...ESPECIALLY ONCE FOREGOING INFLOW AIR HAS BEGUN HEATING DIABATICALLY. TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MCS AND BECOME SUPERCELLS. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL OCCUR AS COMPLEX MOVES OVERHEAD...LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CELL MERGERS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR LFK ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LA TO NEAR SIL. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MAXIMIZED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON MESO-BETA SCALE AS TSTM COMPLEX PROCEEDS ACROSS REGION. VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS OVER SE TX INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT...ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS ENOUGH TO YIELD 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG FOR EWD MOVING STORM...AND 0-3 KM SRH NEAR 300 J/KG. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASED DRYING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY IN MID-UPPER LEVELS - IN A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL/SRN TX NOT SAMPLED BY RAOBS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND MLCAPE RISING TO AROUND 1200 J/KG NEXT 3-4 HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 32509494 32369423 32209318 31779256 31189242 30809276 30469332 29789535 30149635 30609696 31069590 31419513 32009501 32349507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 15:11:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 10:11:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231636.j1NGaFpS030032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231635 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231635Z - 231830Z A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST TX WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS FAR E TX. ANOTHER SMALLER BOW IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NW LA. THESE CONVECTIVE LINES ARE NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL LA AND SRN MS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WEAK THIS AFTERNOON BUT HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS SRN MS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BETTER WIND DAMAGE THREAT LIKELY IN THE 19Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SE LA AND SWRN MS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE THAT DEVELOP IN AREAS OF LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31949409 31019489 30419589 30159551 30039270 29939095 29908962 30248862 31018853 31918852 32238887 32459147 32499348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 16:25:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 11:25:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231750.j1NHockK003919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231749 AZZ000-CAZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA...SWRN AND SCNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231749Z - 231945Z SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SE CA WITH NEW CELLS INITIATING IN FAR SERN CA. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SWRN AZ...THE HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED OVER THE LA BASIN WITH A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT MOVING NEWD ACROSS SERN CA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO SW AZ MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE GULF OF CA WITH LOWER TO MID 50 F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SW AZ. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE UPPER-LOW IS CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. AS CELLS INITIATE AND MATURE...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL MAKE HAIL A THREAT ACROSS SE CA AND THE SW DESERT OF AZ. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32401429 32741586 33331618 34051605 34631558 34881479 34791370 34161189 33591145 32701147 32001223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 16:51:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 11:51:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231816.j1NIGIvx030153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231813 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-232015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL MS...FAR NE LA...FAR SE AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231813Z - 232015Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. A SHORT LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE JACKSON AREA. THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS CNTRL MS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE AT JACKSON CURRENTLY SHOWS 40 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED MULTICELL THREAT AS THE CELLS MOVE NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NCNTRL MS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM AND INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST OF CELLS. AS THE CELLS GET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NCNTRL MS...SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR DUE TO COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AND WEAKER INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33669120 33898930 33638839 33148831 32798853 32499029 32619146 33169159  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 17:02:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 12:02:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231827.j1NIRpu3008713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231826 KSZ000-COZ000-232230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231826Z - 232230Z BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN CO POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SW KS THIS AFTN. HRLY SNOW RATES WILL BE UP TO 1 INCH...WITH HIGHER RATES WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES MESOSCALE ASCENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS CNTRL NM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA. THE SECOND IS A SPEED MAX APPROACHING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. BOTH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE MESOSCALE...LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES TO AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. RADAR LOOPS SHOW MODERATE SNOW ORGANIZING INTO BANDED STRUCTURES ACROSS SERN CO...WITH MODERATE SNOW REPORTED AT PUEBLO AND LA JUNTA CO OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SFC TEMPERATURE PATTERN OR EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. IN PARTICULAR THE NAM HAS NOT RESOLVED THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC...WITH THE FORECAST AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES TOO HIGH. CURRENT SFC TEMPS ACROSS SERN CO/SW KS ARE IN THE LOW 30S WITH WETBULB TEMPS AROUND 31-33 DEGREES. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING PCPN WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND RUC FOR THE AFTN. BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ENHANCING FROM LAA TO NW OF GCK...AND IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR IF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP INTO WRN KS. HOWEVER...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...WITH SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER. WITH INCREASING LIFT AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN SFC TEMP...THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW NOW IN SERN CO MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO SW KS. ..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38810252 38680495 37430482 37330275 37500186 37810112 38830106 38840206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 17:55:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 12:55:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502231920.j1NJKLXx027053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231919 TXZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231919Z - 232115Z ISOLATED CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MIDLAND. THE CELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL LIKELY THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE EXTENDING WSW TO ENE FROM NEAR FORT STOCKTON TO BRADY TX. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN STORM INITIATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SOME CAPPING STILL EXISTS AND THE CELLS ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. THE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COLD FRONT DRYLINE INTERSECTION WHERE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 30 F. TEMPS IN THE 70S F COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -17C ARE CREATING STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS CELLS SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND TAP INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE STORMS TO BECOME SFC-BASED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE SJT AREA AT 21Z SUGGEST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY ALSO OCCUR. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29990236 30400286 30990284 31280120 31709933 31929861 31569807 30949802 30190021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 18:36:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:36:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502232002.j1NK247H002987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232000 TXZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX AND THE TX COASTAL PLAIN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232000Z - 232200Z SCATTERED CELLS ARE INITIATING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SE TX AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST FROM GALVESTON TO MATAGORDA BAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 80 F ARE RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. NEW CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SE TX AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP... 28439646 28459679 28839702 29269661 29849578 30249487 30349426 30129393 29819401 29239498 28519624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 18:51:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:51:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502232016.j1NKGEPv016867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232015 NMZ000-TXZ000-232215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232015Z - 232215Z ...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NM... TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NM...AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...FURTHER ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC AND PROFILER DATA FROM TUCUMCARI/WHITE SANDS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 60 KT...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9 C/KM COMBINED WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES AS NOTED FROM INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO STRONG TSTM WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SVR HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES OF 5 PERCENT HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 35060682 34720874 33380903 31800861 31990622 32160492 33200461 34360489 34930574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 19:43:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 14:43:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502232109.j1NL99uj031316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232108 MSZ000-LAZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35... VALID 232108Z - 232315Z A BOW ECHO CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN MS AND SRN LA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. THE STRONGER CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD ACROSS CNTRL AL AND CNTRL MS. THE BOW ECHO IS LOCATED FROM THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD INTO FAR SWRN LA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 22Z AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF THE LINE IN SRN LA WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF HIGHER INSTABILITY EXISTING ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR IN SW MS AND FAR ERN LA. THESE AREAS WILL BE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR INTENSE CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LINE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH NEW CELLS THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF THE LINE IN SE LA AND SRN MS. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30278900 30039013 29879215 29829315 30029325 30319287 30749205 32169052 32628942 32668866 32158845 31208857 30728868 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 23:22:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 18:22:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240047.j1O0llkO002078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240046 TXZ000-NMZ000-240245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240046Z - 240245Z THROUGH 02 OR 03Z....POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT MOVE MOVES THROUGH LEA COUNTY NM INTO FAR WRN TX. AS OF 0030Z....MAF RADAR INDICATED A STORM EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER W-CNTRL LEA COUNTY NM MOVING 275/32 KTS. WHILE...00Z MAF SOUNDING REFLECTED RATHER STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS PRESENT WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...IT APPEARS THAT 00Z EPZ SOUNDING IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS STORM/S INITIATING ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATION AT HOB...THIS STORM AND OTHER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO IT ARE LIKELY BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH EWD EXTENT. GIVEN RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 02 OR 03Z INTO FAR WRN TX...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER OWING TO THE WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 32890408 33390379 33450272 32960212 32280222 31990293 31940360 32250398 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 23:28:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 18:28:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240053.j1O0rfQ3006243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240052 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-240445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NM CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 240052Z - 240445Z UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT WILL BEGIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS/NERN PLAINS OF NM. SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO SRN AZ BY THU MORNING. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NRN NM FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL HELP FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND SRN KS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING FOR MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z. SINCE SFC TEMPS IN THE NERN PLAINS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S...PCPN SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW RECENTLY REPORTED AT LVS. FARTHER WEST NEAR SAF/SKX WHERE TEMPS ARE WARMER...A FEW HOURS OF DIABATIC COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ALL SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-05Z. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 C/KG NOTED ON 00Z ABQ SOUNDING AND RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ONCE SNOW BEGINS...STRONG LIFT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35460295 35250559 35180690 36960641 37000364 37000300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 00:11:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 19:11:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240137.j1O1b4pf000962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240136 TXZ000-240300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGIONS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36... VALID 240136Z - 240300Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 03Z. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ABOUT 50N OF SAT TO WWD TO 50NE OF P07. STRONGEST STORMS CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED OVER NRN VAL VERDE COUNTY WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /PER 00Z DRT SOUNDING/. CLOSE INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO INTO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. 00Z RUC APPEARS TO HAVE RESOLVED THIS FEATURE AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE...SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM P07/DRT ENEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT. GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP S TX...IN ADDITION TO AMPLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 03Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND S OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30240259 31120239 31639755 29589731 29250075 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 03:48:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 22:48:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240513.j1O5DtPr013348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240512 TXZ000-240715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240512Z - 240715Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM UPTON AND REAGAN COUNTIES NEWD IN AN ARC TO N AND NE OF SJT. WHILE THIS AREA LIES WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...CURRENT SJT VWP CLEARLY INDICATES A RELATIVELY STRONG WAA PATTERN IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER. CORRESPONDING RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOIST...SATURATED LAYER /ROUGHLY ABOUT 700-800 M DEEP/ ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM IS RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME HOWEVER AS INVERSION DEEPENS. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31020210 31900121 32130008 31989878 31239799 30649862 30440068 30430171 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 04:12:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 23:12:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240538.j1O5c6CZ027617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240537 TXZ000-240730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37... VALID 240537Z - 240730Z THREAT CONTINUES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WITH ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. AS OF 0515Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER EDWARDS AND KINNEY COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE INTO MAVERICK COUNTY. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA/COAHUILA MEXICO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY EWD. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON DOWNSTREAM RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WHETHER THIS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CAN EFFECTIVELY ERODE CAP SUCH THAT ONGOING STORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED EWD TOWARD SAT. SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER BANDERA AND REAL COUNTIES SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS MAY WELL BE OCCURRING. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING STORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST EWD ACROSS WW 0037. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT... 29750144 30300104 30419827 28639815 28160023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 06:22:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 01:22:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502240747.j1O7lueZ003061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240747 TXZ000-240915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37... VALID 240747Z - 240915Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SAT METRO AREA SWD TO NEAR COT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG AND E OF THIS LINE THROUGH SCHEDULED EXPIRATION...UNLESS REPLACEMENT WW IS REQUIRED. ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION OF WW 37...TO COVER AREAS FROM NEAR CRP WWD AND NWD. CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS TO BE BACKBUILDING SWD ACROSS DIMMIT COUNTY INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...BUT MORE MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW...DIABATICALLY COOLED STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC...BENEATH ELEVATED MUCAPE OF APPROXIMATELY 2500 J/KG. VWP AND RUC DATA INDICATES 500 MB FLOW 30-35 KT AROUND LATITUDE OF SAT...DECREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG CRP-LRD LINE. THIS SUPPORTS BOTH WEAKENING LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR AND WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SR FLOW SWD THROUGH REGION. THEREFORE ANY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES SUCH AS THOSE RECENTLY OBSERVED ALONG SRN END OF TSTM BAND OVER ZAVALA/FRIO COUNTIES...SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY THROUGH HEAVY-PRECIP PHASE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT. GREATEST ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS ATASCOSA...EXTREME SRN BEXAR...KARNES AND WILSON COUNTIES. THIS IS ALSO ALONG AND JUST S OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE..WHERE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND MOST CONDUCIVE TO PENETRATION OF DOWNDRAFT GUSTS TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...HGX... 30250166 30409823 28669824 28500168 29989821 29989767 29849689 29619669 29289668 28889671 28409695 27989734 27949826 28069908 28199934 28329944 28469943 28619928 28669824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 08:48:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 03:48:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502241013.j1OADjDv015691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241012 TXZ000-241145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX...TX COASTAL BEND AND MIDDLE TX COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38... VALID 241012Z - 241145Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW...INCLUDING AREA BEHIND MCS...IN ORDER TO COVER ELEVATED...HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP OUTFLOW POOL. ANOTHER VERY SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR...FOR MIDDLE COAST REGION AROUND PSX THAT IS EAST OF PRESENT WW 38. LEADING PORTION OF BOW ECHO -- ENTERING WRN DEWITT COUNTY AS OF 10Z -- IS EXPECTED TO EXIT ERN PORTION WW WITHIN ANOTHER 1-1.5 HOURS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS JACKSON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY BRUSH SRN PORTIONS WHARTON/BRAZORIA COUNTIES...ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE. MEANWHILE SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXTEND SWWD DOWN TSTM LINE AS TRAILING PORTION MOVES FROM LIVE OAK/MCMULLEN COUNTIES TOWARDS ARANSAS/CALHOUN COUNTIES. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW LAYER OF DIABATICALLY COOLED AIR...BENEATH ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SUCH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BOW ECHO AND TRAILING CONVECTIVE LINE UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE. ..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28169688 29469685 29289533 29039516 28729532 27759698 28139843 29459887 29449682 28139683 28149890 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 10:34:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 05:34:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502241159.j1OBxG5J005806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241158 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-241700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN VA / MD / DE / SRN NJ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241158Z - 241700Z MDT TO HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH 1 IN/HR RATES LIKELY BY LATE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM NERN VA ACROSS CENTRAL MD INTO DE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BELOW 650 MB WILL INCREASE AS THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR A WSW-ENE ORIENTED ZONE OF HEAVY SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA MODELS INDICATE RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FVX TO RIC VA LINE DUE TO WARMING ALOFT...WHILE BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS COLDER PROFILES NORTH OF THIS LINE. ..JEWELL.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38227512 37877639 37847765 37467856 37597907 38887833 39187762 39437692 39627568 39257451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 11:40:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 06:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502241305.j1OD5NjD014058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241304 TXZ000-241430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38...39... VALID 241304Z - 241430Z CONTINUE WW 39 ALONG AND E OF MCS. REMAINDER WW 38 PROBABLY WILL BE CANCELED SOON. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF WW 39 BEFORE 16Z...SO IT ALSO MIGHT BE CANCELED BEFORE EXPIRATION. MCS AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND ESEWD ACROSS TX COAST FROM SW OF GLS TO EXTREME NRN PADRE ISLAND. SRN PORTION OF MCS LIES MAINLY BEHIND ITS OWN GUST FRONT...AND NEWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS DUVAL/JIM WELLS COUNTIES SHOULD BE UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW FROM MCS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ATTM APPEARS TO BE OVER NRN PORTION OF THIS AREA -- MATAGORDA/BRAZORIA/WHARTON COUNTIES -- INVOF BOW ECHO. ALSO...SECONDARY BOW HAS DEVELOPED SOMEWHAT FARTHER NE OVER FT BEND COUNTY...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. ISOLATED SEVERE MAY OCCUR WITH LATTER FEATURE...BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN LIMITED LAND AREA LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29459887 29449682 28139683 28149890 29359610 30189536 29689455 29499448 28879460 28459516 29289513 29329681 29299516 28139518 28149681 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 17:43:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 12:43:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502241908.j1OJ8KrN011385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241907 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-242300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MD/NRN VA/SERN PA/NJ/DE/LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241907Z - 242300Z PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MD/PORTIONS OF PA/DE/NJ...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOURLY RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW HAVE FORMED AND ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY THE ATMOSPHERE'S RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. JET MAX IS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MO GIVEN TRENDS IN CONWAY/BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER DATA. CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OF 120M/12 HR WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW VA INTO SRN MD. SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF THE NC COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. THIS TRACK WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL E/NELY FLOW ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AND ASSOCIATED HIGH THETA-E AIR MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES NOTED AT DOVER/STERLING AND WAKEFIELD VA ARE INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING ATTM. OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE FOCUSED FROM PA TO NJ/DELMARVA WITH THE BEST FORCING EVENTUALLY ENDING FROM W TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 25/00Z. HEAVIEST SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM OKV THROUGH THE BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS INTO SRN SECTIONS OF PHILADELPHIA AND DE. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDREWS AFB INDICATE 2 INCH/HR RATES WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES AT BALTIMORE REPORTED FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS. THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME...THOUGH SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 40957594 39847828 38907790 37507540 39167326 40597203 41097208 41247307 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 19:30:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 14:30:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502242056.j1OKu0HY011689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242055 LAZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242055Z - 242330Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SERN LA COAST NEXT FEW HOURS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. GIVEN THE LIMITED THREAT AREA...AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WW. THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR DULAC ON THE SE LA COAST SWD INTO THE NWRN GULF. THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AT 35 TO 40 KT. LOCAL RADAR FROM SLIDELL SHOWS A ROTATING COMMA HEAD WITH TRAILING BOW ECHO ON THE NRN END OF THIS LINE SUGGESTING DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT BRUSHES THE COAST. REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED JUST OFFSHORE. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS COASTAL LA...AIDED BY MOIST UNSTABLE SLY INFLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 02/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX... 29238911 28959022 29289071 29709025 29738886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 07:14:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 02:14:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502250840.j1P8e4MY018869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250839 FLZ000-251045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 250839Z - 251045Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE FL PENINSULA...PER EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING EAST. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE WARMER GULF WATERS...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS HAVE EVOLVED IN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED FASHION FROM NEAR LEVY COUNTY...TO WELL WEST OF THE TPA REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR AN EWD MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BUT OBSERVED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD CONFINE MEANINGFUL STORM ROTATION TO THAT REGION WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. ..DARROW.. 02/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX... 29208298 29528209 29178185 28808219 27978248 28038283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 02:50:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 21:50:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502270415.j1R4FODC021948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270414 FLZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 270414Z - 270615Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. CAPE IN 27/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A 1000 J/KG...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH DELINEATES NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...ARE ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTING ROTATION IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ...FROM NEAR KEY WEST...WEST NORTHWESTWARD. BRIEF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD...HOWEVER...ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. TOWARD THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION TO BROADER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24388181 24388269 24448336 24748385 25658357 25988305 25968259 25888205 25918174 25498125 24858119 24458140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 02:54:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 21:54:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502270419.j1R4J4Dl023104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270418 FLZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 270418Z - 270615Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. CAPE IN 27/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A 1000 J/KG...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH DELINEATES NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...ARE ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTING ROTATION IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ...FROM NEAR KEY WEST...WEST NORTHWESTWARD. BRIEF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD...HOWEVER...ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. TOWARD THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION TO BROADER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24388181 24388269 24448336 24748385 25658357 25988305 25968259 25888205 25918174 25498125 24858119 24458140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 02:54:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 21:54:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502270419.j1R4Jtbt023384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270414 FLZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 270414Z - 270615Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. CAPE IN 27/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A 1000 J/KG...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH DELINEATES NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...ARE ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTING ROTATION IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ...FROM NEAR KEY WEST...WEST NORTHWESTWARD. BRIEF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD...HOWEVER...ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. TOWARD THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION TO BROADER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24388181 24388269 24448336 24748385 25658357 25988305 25968259 25888205 25918174 25498125 24858119 24458140  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 02:55:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 21:55:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502270420.j1R4KkJo024234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270418 FLZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL VALID 270418Z - 270615Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. CAPE IN 27/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A 1000 J/KG...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH DELINEATES NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...ARE ENHANCING SHEAR BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTING ROTATION IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ...FROM NEAR KEY WEST...WEST NORTHWESTWARD. BRIEF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS COULD...HOWEVER...ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. TOWARD THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION TO BROADER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 24388181 24388269 24448336 24748385 25658357 25988305 25968259 25888205 25918174 25498125 24858119 24458140  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 11:45:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 06:45:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271310.j1RDAHXQ002548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271309 MIZ000-WIZ000-271715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN WI INTO WRN U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 271309Z - 271715Z BAND OF MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS WRN/NRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH 18Z. EMBEDDED SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1.0-1.5 IN/HR FOR A 1-2 HOUR DURATION. NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN U.P. OF MI/NW WI INTO SE MN...ALONG 30 W IWD TO 30 SE MSP AXIS AT 13Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS NRN MN WITH TRAILING VORT LOBE INTO NRN SD...AS SWLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED/WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME EXISTS INTO WI/U.P. OF MI. AS DYNAMIC ASCENT/STRONGEST UVVS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD...QUICK SATURATION/FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES -- PER 09Z RUC SOUNDINGS/12Z MPX RAOB -- SUGGESTS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS WRN/NRN WI AND WRN MI U.P. THIS MORNING. AS EVIDENT IN 12Z MPX RAOB...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM OR GREATER ARE LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO EMBEDDED BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. ..GUYER.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45889124 47148931 47098814 46958792 46058828 45008957 44469097 44409192 44919219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 12:37:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 07:37:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271402.j1RE2LVV029655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271401 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271401 FLZ000-271600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271401Z - 271600Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEING MONITORED JUST OFF THE W CNTRL FL CST. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF CNTRL FL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION/ POSSIBLE THUNDER OVER THE EXTREME ERN GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MILES WSW SRQ. NEWLY DEVELOPED CELLS IN THIS AREA ARE EXHIBITING WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND APPEAR TO BE LOCATED ALONG SEGMENT OF W/E WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS REGION. WIND PROFILES NEAR TPA /PER VWP DATA/ HAVE SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SRH IN THE PAST 2 HRS...WITH VALUES NOW APPROACHING 300 M2/S2. WHILE THE 12Z TPA RAOB DEPICTS A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...GREATER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY EXIST JUST SW OF TPA INVOF WARM FRONT AND CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE CONVECTION W OF SRQ WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND/OR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OCCURS...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ..CORFIDI.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW... 28008282 28118196 27718167 27168198 26918226 27358265 27808286 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 15:16:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 10:16:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271641.j1RGfROx016507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271640 FLZ000-271845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271640Z - 271845Z MESOSCALE TRENDS OVER S FL ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF DATA BEGIN TO SUGGEST INITIATION IS LIKELY IN THIS AREA...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. BOUNDARY SEPARATING RAIN COOLED AIR FROM WARM MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUNTA GORDA EWD TO NEAR THE PALM BEACH AREA. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. INCREASING SURFACE HEATING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY FLAT CUMULUS OFF THE SW FL COAST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RAOBS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI SUGGEST VERY LITTLE CAP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...AND POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER WITH TIME. HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IF INITIATION OCCURS. ..DIAL.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26378183 26868096 27008030 26828005 26158012 25428055 25368115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 16:28:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 11:28:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271753.j1RHrYnf023606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271752 MIZ000-WIZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...U.P OF MI AND NERN WI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 271752Z - 272145Z MOD-HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS THE WRN U.P OF MI AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH 21Z. FARTHER EAST...MOD-HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.P OF MI AND NERN WI THROUGH 22Z AND THE ERN U.P OF MI BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HVY SNOW RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL U.P OF MI THROUGH 22Z. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT BY CONCENTRATED SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND RAPIDLY MOVING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/NRN WI. RECENT WARMING TRENDS IN IR SAT IMAGERY AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUPPORT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THE POTENTIAL OF HVY SNOW RATES ABOVE 1 INCH/HR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. IN ADDITION...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM SFC-850 MB SUPPORTED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN SIDE OF A ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE ERN GRT LAKES WILL LIMIT A RAPID PROGRESSION OF MOD/HVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOD MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION WILL SUPPORT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HVY SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.P OF MI THROUGH 22Z. SNOW-LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS FROM 15-20:1 WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR IN AREAS WITH VSBY AROUND 1/2 MI. NEGATIVE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE WAKE OF A 700-500 MB TROUGH WILL AID IN A RAPID DEMISE OF MOD-HVY SNOW OVER THE WRN U.P OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 46678498 45898592 45718658 44508757 44208869 44608938 46198923 46948793 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 16:43:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 11:43:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502271808.j1RI8r0Q031418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271808 FLZ000-272015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41... VALID 271808Z - 272015Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FL. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE PALM BEACH AREA WWD TO N OF PUNTA GORDA AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NWD. WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS PROMOTE SURFACE HEATING. DESPITE HEATING AND INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 800 J/KG. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WRN END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY LONGER AS THEY MOVE INLAND...AND ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN CELLS CONTAINING LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WARM SECTOR PROVIDING INFLOW TO THE STORMS DESTABILIZES. THE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO INITIALLY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND DEGREE OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY PRESENT IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27178065 26748161 26398268 27538270 28648272 28878218 29168147 29428062 28248058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 20:05:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 15:05:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502272130.j1RLUj4A015542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272129 FLZ000-272300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41... VALID 272129Z - 272300Z THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF E CNTRL FL. HOWEVER...THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG AN ENE-WSW ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO ABOUT 40 MILES S OF TAMPA AND WWD INTO THE ERN GULF. DESPITE SURFACE HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INFLUX OF WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN TO VEER...ESPECIALLY OVER W CNTRL FL AS PRIMARY LOW MOVES EWD TOWARD NRN FL AND STRONGER WLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN PART OF THE LINE WHERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND. STRONGEST SHEAR...CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE LINE WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER... SURFACE HEATING SUBSIDES...AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. ..DIAL.. 02/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27138064 26588192 26428263 27338269 28168264 28578241 29078143 29158062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 23:22:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 18:22:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502280047.j1S0laBI023196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280046 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-280645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC..FAR ERN TN AND SWRN VA/FAR SRN WV CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 280046Z - 280645Z HVY SNOW POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO COLD RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS HVY SNOW OVER WRN NC ...BUT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION OVER TO EITHER COLD RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BELOW 4500 FT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEEPENS IN THE STRONG WAA REGIME. FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHERE COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN DEEPER AND/OR LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SLIGHTLY WEAKER...EXPECT HVY SNOW TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WRN NC...AND OVER SWRN VA/FAR ERN TN AND FAR SRN WV BETWEEN 02-06Z. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SMOKY AND BLUE RIDGE MTNS WHERE STRONG ELY FLOW CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WILL AID IN STRONG OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. A DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE REGION. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR WHERE A STRONG WAA REGIME OVERLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD. THIS WAS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER AL...WHERE HRLY RAINFALL RATES OVER 0.2 INCHES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST 2 HOURS. EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT TRENDS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN GA...EXPECT THIS STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION FIELD TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION BETWEEN 02-06Z. GIVEN DEGREE OF FORCING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE -12 AND -16 DEG C LAYER...DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WILL BE MAXIMIZED TO SUPPORT HRLY SNOWFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH. IN ADDITION...WHERE THE WARM LAYER IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN...A 15O MB DEEP LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB OF AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL. SINCE THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VALID NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 850 MB...THE DEGREE OF THE ELEVATED WARMING THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. HOWEVER...WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT COOLING NEAR THE SFC...THAT WHERE THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS PRESENT...TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SUPPORT EITHER VERY COLD RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT OF THE PIEDMONT OF WRN NC. ..CROSBIE.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... 36687958 37507991 37688100 36658263 35718365 35148403 34908325 36138039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 00:59:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 19:59:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502280224.j1S2O4ek007669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280223 TXZ000-280330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TEXAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 280223Z - 280330Z MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE MIDLAND AREA PROBABLY IS OCCURRING IN AREA OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF EARLIER DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUPPORTING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. SURFACE BASED-INVERSION LAYER IS ALREADY FORMING...AND MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. AS STEERING FLOW ADVECTS ACTIVITY INTO COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO... NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...DIMINISHING TRENDS ARE EXPECTED. AS NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING PROGRESSES...RISK OF DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY ALREADY BE WANING. ..KERR.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... 32090144 32490116 32610078 31719890 31089900 31029986 31500072 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 05:55:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 00:55:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502280720.j1S7Klpl022006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280720 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280719 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT OF NC/VA AND WV CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 280719Z - 281115Z MDT/HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE NC/WV/VA APPALACHIANS THROUGH 12Z...WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES COMMON. INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS/PIEDMONT...A NARROW ZONE OF SLEET/FZRA WILL LIKELY TRANSITION NWD INVOF GSO-DAN-LYH-CHO CORRIDOR. STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME COUPLED WITH UPPER JET ENHANCED UVVS...WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NC/VA OVERNIGHT. ALREADY EVIDENT IN GSP/CAE/LAX/RAX WSR-88D VADS...40-60 KT ELY 850 MB JET WILL TRANSLATE NWD ACROSS NC/VA OVERNIGHT ON NRN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL CAROLINAS SFC CYCLONE. THESE MOIST ELY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL FURTHER SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHERE SNOW RATES AS HIGH AS 2.0 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILES COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT. AS EVIDENT IN SPECIAL 06Z GSO RAOB...NARROW WARM LAYER AROUND 850 MB /APPROX 3.0 C IN RAOB/ WILL SUPPORT PARTIAL AND/OR FULL MELTING ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH NC/VA. THUS A ZONE OF SLEET AND/OR FZRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NWD ALONG A GSO-DAN-LYH-CHO CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WHERE NEAR/SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED...A TREND LARGELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH 00Z NAM/06Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 38348115 38728049 38887993 39007942 39207842 38937775 37897810 37057851 36057983 35788125 35668186 35998242 36438237 36788255 36898265 37338259 38118168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 11:52:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 06:52:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502281317.j1SDHkap003715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281316 MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV AND WRN/CNTRL VA INTO WRN/CNTRL MD AND SRN PA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 281316Z - 281715Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE WV/VA APPALACHIANS INTO WRN MD/SRN PA THROUGH 18Z...WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE INVOF HIGHEST TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...SOME FZRA/SLEET SHOULD MIX IN WITH SNOW/RAIN IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL VA POSSIBLY INTO CNTRL MD...MOST LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF A DAN-DCA AXIS. AT 12Z...APPROX 993 MB SFC LOW CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST 100 NM SSW OF HSE. AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/MOVE NNEWD...LOW LEVEL ELY CONVEYOR ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE COINCIDENT WITH COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS ACROSS CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES. INVOF OF WV/VA APPALACHIANS...SUFFICIENTLY REMOVED FROM STRONGEST WAA...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW WITH DYNAMIC LIFT COINCIDENT WITHIN DENDRITIC LAYER. ACROSS NRN VA INTO WRN/CNTRL MD AND SRN PA...09Z RUC SUGGESTS INITIAL/SHALLOW DRY LOW LEVELS /E.G. 12Z IAD RAOB/ WILL BE QUICKLY SATURATED NWD INTO MRB/HGR AREAS BETWEEN 14Z-16Z AS UVVS MARKEDLY INCREASE. ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE MARGINAL/TRANSITIONAL...09Z RUC SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET/FZRA -- MIXED WITH SNOW TO THE WEST AND RAIN EAST -- WILL SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL VA/CNTRL MD FROM DAN/LYH VICINITIES TO NEAR CHO AND DCA. ALTHOUGH 12Z IAD OBSERVED RAOB FEATURES SUB-FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH ENTIRE COLUMN /-1.5 C AT 850 MB/...AFOREMENTIONED RUC SOLUTION APPEARS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CONTINUAL TREND OF WARMING/ELY TRAJECTORIES OFF MILD ATLANTIC. ..GUYER.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL... 40367799 40227687 39627643 37777775 37127851 36577925 36258014 36378083 36458154 36668194 36848213 37098223 38208162 39008081 39957912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 16:07:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 11:07:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502281732.j1SHWNvJ030039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281730 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...ERN PA AND SERN NY...LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281730Z - 282230Z A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS SRN NJ...ERN PA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR HVY SNOW AS IT MOVES NWD INTO NRN NJ/LONG ISLAND AND THE NYC AREA. THUS HOURLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND/OR COLD RAIN ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER INITIAL PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 600 MB AND CONTINUED STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 20-30 NM WIDE E-W BAND OF MOD SNOW AS IT MOVES NWD THROUGH NJ AND ERN PA AND EVENTUALLY INTO LONG ISLAND/SERN NY. DESPITE THE DEEP DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING... PRECIPITATION FALL SHOULD RAPIDLY SATURATE THIS LAYER. AS SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX MOVES NWD THROUGH VA...INCREASINGLY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO HVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS BAND OF SNOW. CURRENT FORWARD MOTION OF THIS BAND AROUND 15 MPH SUGGESTS MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH/HR. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PRESENT FORWARD MOTION WOULD ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF HVY SNOW TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AROUND 21Z. DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER...SOME OF THE SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTOGENETIC HEAVY SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN NJ WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. ..CROSBIE.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39807410 40667333 41127404 41227518 40687573 40187590 39847603 39237486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 16:58:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 11:58:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502281822.j1SIMwRo004859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281822 MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-282315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...D.C...MD...WV AND PA AND ERN OH CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 281822Z - 282315Z PERIODS OF HVY SNOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN VA...THE D.C METRO AREA...NRN/CENTRAL MD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THEN THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 21-00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER NORTH/WEST...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN/CNTRL WV THROUGH 21Z WHILE DEVELOPING INTO SWRN/SCENTRAL PA THROUGH 00Z. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SHORT TERM RATES IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A TRAILING VORT MAX HAS AIDED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN/CENTRAL VA EWD OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. 15Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS ...SHOWING 7-7.5 DEG C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. THE RECENT COOLING TRENDS IN IR IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARDS INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AS UPPER VORT FORCING INTERACTS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE. DESPITE LIMITED HVY SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL AND ORGANIZATION OF SNOWBANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NWD THROUGH SRN VA WILL SUPPORT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HVY SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL/NRN VA INTO THE D.C AREA AND NRN/CENTRAL MD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MAIN UPPER VORT PASSES BY...AND BEFORE THE 850 MB WAA CEASES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FARTHER WNW...A SECONDARY VORT MAX WHICH WAS WELL DEFINED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CENTERED OVER SWRN WV. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS IT MOVES NWD OVER NRN WV INTO FAR ERN OH...SWRN/ SCENTRAL PA. MOD TO OCCASIONALLY HVY SNOW WILL RESULT OVER THIS REGION GENERALLY ABOVE 1000 FT AS FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE 600-500 MB LAYER COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. ..CROSBIE.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 37757794 39007656 40007601 40507723 40887928 41058087 40088133 38288129 37617922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 20:46:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 15:46:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200502282211.j1SMBlSM027183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282210 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-010415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NJ...SRN NY...CT...RI...SRN NH/SRN VT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 282210Z - 010415Z PERIODS OF HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM SERN PA...NJ/FAR SERN NY INTO MUCH OF NCENTRAL/NERN PA...SRN NY AND CT/RI...MA AND SRN NH/SRN VT THROUGH 04Z. A COALESCENCE OF UPPER FORCING FROM A VORT MAX OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. DEGREE OF FOCUSED FRONTOGENETIC LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER.../500-600 MB LAYER/ COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7.5 DEG C/KM WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES FROM NRN NJ NEWD INTO SERN NY...CT...RI...MA AND FAR SRN VT/SRN NH THROUGH 04Z. IN THESE LOCATIONS SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE MORE COMMON AS SOMEWHAT WEAKER VERTICAL MOTION AND LESSER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. AS THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FORCING PROGRESSES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION...HVY SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END ALONG A LINE FROM RDG TO THE NYC METRO AREA TO SRN CT BY 03Z....WHILE DEVELOPING ACROSS MA/CT AND RI BETWEEN THROUGH 02Z. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WAA REGIME MAY LEAD TO A MIX OR CHANGE OVER OF THE SNOW TO SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NJ AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN. ..CROSBIE.. 02/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39507486 39997407 40587364 40837199 41437056 42237056 42497083 42647367 42247682 41017724 40007590 WWWW