[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 311755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311755 
CAZ000-312000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SACRAMENTO VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311755Z - 312000Z

...LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...


LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER CVA IS SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE
TOWARD THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING.  MUCH DRIER MID
LEVELS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS..ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S.  UPSTREAM...LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS
STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...7C/KM...AND 3KM CAPE...IN EXCESS
OF 100J/KG...WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEY ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR
ROBUST CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...BACKED VALLEY FLOW SHOULD PROVE
BENEFICIAL FOR SUSTAINING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY AIDING
STORM ROTATION AND SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.  HAIL IS THE MOST
LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..DARROW.. 12/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...

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