[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 281759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281758 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/FL PNHDL/SWRN INTO CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281758Z - 282000Z

SEVERE STORM THREAT FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES AN AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
WRN NC SWWD ACROSS NRN GA INTO SERN AL -- WELL AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT. AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR/NEAR AND BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE OF STORMS...AS MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS IS NOW YIELDING
MEAN-LAYER CAPE 500 TO 1000 J/KG.

THOUGH CONVERGENCE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ALONG COLD FRONT ATTM AND NO
OTHER OBVIOUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXES EXIST...LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION AS SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  WITH
TIME...EXPECT MULTIPLE BANDS OF STORMS TO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
CONVECTION...WITH WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 60 KT ABOVE SURFACE
SSWLYS.  THUS...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION.
 THOUGH LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...RAPID INCREASE IN
FLOW WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE IS YIELDING 0-1 KM SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.  THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 60S SUGGEST A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL --
PARTICULARLY FROM SWRN GA SWWD.

..GOSS.. 12/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

29808762 31548648 33418405 33508271 32408222 31158266
29578392 29518572 

WWWW