[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Dec 28 14:52:01 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 281453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281452 
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-281645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL/IN/WRN OH/SRN LOWER MI/CENTRAL KY/NRN
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281452Z - 281645Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD NEAR/JUST E OF
EWD-MOVING UPPER LOW CENTER.  MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS...THOUGH WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ARC OF STORMS NOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION...JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED
OVER SRN IL.  COLD AIR ALOFT /AROUND -22 C AT 500 MB/ IS
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ELEVATED LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH 200 TO
400 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE EVIDENT ON AREA 12Z RAOBS BETWEEN 850
AND 300 MB.  

WITH 40 TO 50 KT SSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUSTAINED/PERHAPS
WEAKLY-ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THOUGH OVERALL STORM INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 TO 3/4" HAIL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD TOWARD ERN KY/WRN OH/SRN LOWER MI.

..GOSS.. 12/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...OHX...IND...LOT...ILX...

39978783 41858559 42148439 41818329 40768287 38528316
36768497 36158710 37758620 39168633 

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