[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Dec 16 11:57:35 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 161155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161154 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-161700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...VT...NH...ME...NWRN MA

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 161154Z - 161700Z

...WINTER STORM PRODUCING AREAS OF ICE AND SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...

FZRA WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS ICING FROM PARTS OF ERN NY... MA...SRN
VT/NH...AND SWRN ME THIS MORNING. MDT TO HVY SN WILL FALL FROM
CNTRL/NERN NY...AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM VT/NH TO INTERIOR
MAINE. A BROAD TRANSITION ZONE OF SN...PL...AND FZRA WILL CONTINUE
FROM CNTRL VT/NH TO MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SN BY
AFTERNOON.

AN INTENSE AND FAST-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS ROTATING
THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER WI THIS
MORNING. DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE/JET HAS INDUCED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE VICINITY OF NJ. VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING SECONDARY LOW AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SRN QUEBEC WAS CONTRIBUTING TO PRONOUNCED
INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE NWWD AND INLAND ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD
DOME FROM ERN NY ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND.

MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WAS DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS VT/NH EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOWER PCPN RATES IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THESE AREAS. WRF AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF WERE INDICATING ONE PCPN MAX ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND ANOTHER PCPN MAX FROM
NERN NY TO SRN QUEBEC. AREAS IN THE SRN ZONE OF HEAVIER PCPN... FROM
SERN NY ACROSS MA AND INTO SRN NH AND MAINE...MAY EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF HVY ICING THIS MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER THE SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE. SN WILL
CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FZRA IN THESE AREAS. THIS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED
OVER SWRN MA...AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN NH AND ME
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FARTHER NORTH...SECONDARY PCPN MAXIMUM...FROM NERN NY ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC...NRN VT/NH...AND INTERIOR ME...WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SN. INTENSE QG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ENEWD FROM CNTRL/NERN NY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
TO INTERIOR ME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WILL OFFSET WARM ADVECTION AND...COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION...SUPPORT MDT TO HVY SN ON THE NRN EDGE OF
THE PCPN TRANSITION ZONE. SN WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE STRONGER UPPER FORCING MOVES ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH
THE DAY.

..CARBIN.. 12/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

46297016 45717074 45447138 45327257 45147396 44837539
44267584 43177599 42847534 42817408 42127365 42057269
42447120 42887082 43477058 44136923 45856858 46386920 

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