[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Dec 15 17:08:37 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 151705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151705 
GAZ000-FLZ000-151800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN/SRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 897...

VALID 151705Z - 151800Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS VALID PARTS OF WW
897 FROM THE ERN HALF OF FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SWRN/SRN GA. 
GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG/JUST INLAND OF THE FL
COAST.

16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MESO-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
FL PANHANDLE AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE AND A
WEDGE FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW ACROSS SRN GA TO JUST S OF
SAV.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MESO-LOW SEWD JUST N OF AAF AND
THEN OFFSHORE OVER THE NERN GULF.  HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS EXISTS S
OF THIS WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. 
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE STORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE MESO-LOW SWD TO OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF.  STRONGER ATTENDANT
SHEAR COUPLETS WERE LOCATED WITH ACTIVITY AROUND THE AAF AREA AND
SWD OFFSHORE.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THE GREATEST RISK
FOR TORNADOES AS THIS ACTIVITY INGESTS THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...WHERE 0-3 KM SRH VALUES EXCEED 600 M2/S2.  15Z RUC
SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG TAYLOR COUNTY BY
18Z...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS AND
ATTENDANT TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THIS PART OF WW.

LATEST TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS
ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE ERN FL PANHANDLE COAST. REGIONAL RADARS ALSO
INDICATED A SIMILAR TREND FOR STORMS TO BE WEAKER AND/OR WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

..PETERS.. 12/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

29558514 31058493 31038262 29668353 29468504 

WWWW