[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Dec 9 13:02:15 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 091258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091258 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-091730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST FRI DEC 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CT...CENTRAL/ERN MA...RI...SRN/ERN
NH...SRN MAINE

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 091258Z - 091730Z

HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT/SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE FORENOON HOURS.  RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD BE
COMMON...WITH LOCAL 2-3 INCH/HOUR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS EMBEDDED IN
PRIMARY PRECIP PLUME.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COASTAL/MARINE FRONT FROM W-CENTRAL LONG
ISLAND ENEWD TO VICINITY HYA AND NEWD INTO BAY OF FUNDY...WITHIN
LESS THAN 10 NM S OF FREEZING LINE.  EXPECT FRONT TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NWD ACROSS COASTAL SERN MA AND CAPE COD AREAS. WAA ATOP SHALLOW
FRONTAL LAYER JUST N OF SFC FRONT MAY MELT PRECIP SUFFICIENTLY TO
YIELD NARROW/BRIEF CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN FROM RI EWD ACROSS PYM
AREA AND PORTIONS CAPE COD...WITH RATES REACHING TO NEAR .10
INCH/HOUR...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.  INITIAL LIGHT-MODERATE
SNOW...CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW THEN MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN...IS
EXPECTED IN IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE OVER CENTRAL/ERN MAINE COAST AND
ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AMBIENT PRECIP SHIELD -- MOST INTENSE AT 12Z FROM SRN VT SWWD ACROSS
NYC AREA TO DELMARVA REGION -- IS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL
WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ELEVATED ATOP VERY COLD/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS PRECIP PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO CONTAIN
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD OVER MORE OF CENTRAL/ERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS N-CENTRAL
NH...W-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL MAINE...AND LIKELY FROM ERN MA ACROSS
SRN NH AND INLAND DOWN-EAST MAINE.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EVAPORATIVE/SUBLIMATIVE COOLING OF INITIALLY DRY LOW-MIDLEVEL
PROFILE WILL OFFSET WAA ENOUGH TO KEEP DEEP-LAYER THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT ELEVATED/SLY LLJ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
PRECIP EFFICIENCY.

..EDWARDS.. 12/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

41217350 43077219 44537095 45106980 45676771 45606758
45616747 45536741 45456750 45406742 45226743 45146733
45186716 44856691 44576740 43996840 43556992 42877062
42337093 41887052 41777026 41817012 41947009 42057023
42107020 42077001 41876986 41646989 41607011 41397094
40977350 

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