[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Dec 5 23:19:06 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 052316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052316 
FLZ000-060115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NW FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052316Z - 060115Z

ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND SEWD ALONG FL GULF COAST AND ADJACENT
WATERS...FROM WW 893 TO N OF PIE.

STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS OVER NERN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN...AS THEY ENCOUNTER INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS THAT
WILL STABILIZE BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT.  SLGT POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND OR A TORNADO EXISTS OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...SE OF WW 893...FROM LEVY TO PASCO COUNTIES.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES -- ALREADY MARGINAL FROM TBW AREA SWD...ARE FCST TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME ALONG ENTIRE W-CENTRAL/NW COAST OF FL AS BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW VEERS...SHRINKING 0-1 AND 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS. 
HOWEVER...THIS VEERING MAY ALLOW RELATIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR NOW OFFSHORE TO ADVECT OVER COAST BEFORE PASSAGE OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES
200-500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BAND AND PASCO COUNTY
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.  LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS NOW EVIDENT INVOF NARROW
OFFSHORE CORRIDOR OF BUOYANCY MAY SURVIVE TO REACH COASTLINE BEFORE
THEY WEAKEN.

..EDWARDS.. 12/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29308317 29538282 29488249 29058245 28608236 28238250
28188277 28278318 28508302 28668300 28778304 28818323
28948336 29168344 

WWWW