[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 042011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042011 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-042215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX...LA...CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 890...

VALID 042011Z - 042215Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS WW
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MEI SWWD TO
JUST OFF THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX COAST.  INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL AND
SMALL BOW ECHO STRUCTURES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
NOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LA INTO FAR SERN TX.

AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER
INTO CENTRAL LA WHERE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
HAVE DEVELOPED.  SURFACE-BASED CAPES OVER THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...WITH MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOW INTO
CENTRAL MS.  SHEAR ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION REMAINS QUITE
STRONG...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT ACCORDING TO REGIONAL
VWP/S. SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUSTAIN A THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SWRN PORTION OF WW WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE IN THE STRONGER
CORES. THE THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO CONTINUE
BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WW /AND
ADJACENT AREAS/ ALONG NOSE OF SWLY 35-40 KT LLJ.  DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A HAZARD AS SMALL LINES EVOLVE IN A MORE N-S
ORIENTATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

..EVANS.. 12/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

28729404 30529398 33568824 31318833 

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