[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 041614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041614 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-041815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL LA INTO CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041614Z - 041815Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR IN A NE-SW
ORIENTED AXIS FROM NEAR HEZ TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF LCH.  12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM JAN AND LCH INDICATE AIR MASS IS NOW ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...IF AT
ALL...GIVEN CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S F AND DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F.  MLCAPES ARE NOW IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE...BUT WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG BY THE MID
AFTERNOON GIVEN FURTHER HEATING.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATES
SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR LFK WHICH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD INTO CENTRAL LA AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST.  THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
WEAK...LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG FRONT AND NEAR MESO LOW SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS GENERAL REGION. SWLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THIS
AREA...HOWEVER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS/SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH STRONGER CELLS IF INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP AS EXPECTED.  THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER
TODAY.

..EVANS.. 12/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29649341 30149415 31079349 31709144 31928984 30858957
29999135 

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