[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Dec 4 06:07:01 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 040604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040604 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-041030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WV/NRN VA/MD/PA/SRN NY/NRN NJ

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 040604Z - 041030Z

POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SOME ICE ACCUMULATION WILL
EXIST OVERNIGHT FROM NRN WV INTO WRN/CNTRL MD...SRN PA...AND PERHAPS
FAR NRN VA. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY LIGHT/MDT SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD
ACROSS MUCH OF PA AND FAR SRN NY OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING IN EWD
SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OH/WV INTO PA/NRN VA/MD AT THIS TIME.
ATTRIBUTABLE TO 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET /AS SAMPLED BY CHARLESTON WV
AND STERLING VA WSR-88D VADS/...21Z SREF GUIDANCE/03Z RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED ABOVE
SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET WHERE SUB 32F SFC TEMPS ARE
MAINTAINED...WHICH IS LIKELY ACROSS SRN PA...AND MUCH OF MD/FAR NRN
VA PRIMARILY NW OF I-95 AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-66.

FURTHER NORTH...SUFFICIENTLY COLD PROFILES WILL FAVOR LIGHT/MDT SNOW
AS PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE BULK OF PA INTO SRN NY
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1
IN/HR...CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT COULD YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER BURSTS
MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LIGHT/MDT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO SE NY/NRN NJ
BY 12Z.

..GUYER.. 12/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

42437502 42107429 41277422 40727454 40387505 39577628
38877714 38587875 38297997 38608044 39478084 41588037
42307898 

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