[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 032151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032151 
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-032345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032151Z - 032345Z

A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY AREA WITHIN 2 HOURS.

WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE AND
WAS RECENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS OF SRN MO/NRN AR. IN
ADDITION... A SHARP COLD FRONT WAS SPREADING STEADILY ESEWD FROM ERN
OK AND WRN AR AS A WARM FRONT WAS RETREATING GRADUALLY NWD AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW...FROM NERN AR TO WRN TN TO NWRN AL.

RECENT RUC AND ACARS SOUNDINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER ACROSS AR AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DPVA SPREADS EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM MEM AREA ARE
STILL INDICATING A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT THE BASE
OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AROUND 800MB. MEANWHILE...WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM LA TO WRN TN CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN WITH
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATING 500-1000 MLCAPE IN THIS
CORRIDOR.

EXPECT THAT DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AND ADIABATIC COOLING
ACCOMPANYING THE MID/UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/SURFACE
LOW WILL PROVE ADEQUATE TO LOCALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION ACROSS ERN AR
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. RESULTING STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE SWLY/WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR INCREASES TO OVER 50KT AT 850MB. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY
EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MS
RIVER LATER THIS EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 12/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

35119086 36208999 36398799 35268724 33848953 33209130
33349165 

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