[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291241 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-291415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SWRN GA/CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO POTENTIAL 

VALID 291241Z - 291415Z

TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THIS
REGION...WITHIN FAR OUTER BANDS OF KATRINA.  TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DISCRETE CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE ATTM...E OF TORNADO WATCH 754.  THOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...AREA IS FAR
ENOUGH E OF MAIN OVERCAST ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD HEAT/DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT CELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE/MOVE NNWWD
ACROSS THIS AREA.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...LATEST TLH VWP
AND MORNING RAOB BOTH SHOW 30 TO 35 KT SFC-1KM SHEAR -- SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT.  WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED NEED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 08/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

32218606 31418443 29878362 29308508 29758630 

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