[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282209 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-282345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN
KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750...

VALID 282209Z - 282345Z

CENTRAL/ERN PORTION OF ORIGINAL WW MAY BE CLEARED AS INCREASINGLY
DEEP/STABLE OUTFLOW POOL SPREADS ACROSS AREA.  ANOTHER WW MAY BE
REQUIRED FARTHER S ASTRIDE MO VALLEY...INTO NWRN MO...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING WWD NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN NEB/N-CENTRAL KS.

MULTICELLULAR MCS OVER SERN NEB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD DOWN MO
VALLEY AND ADJACENT SECTIONS IA/MO/KS INTO AIR MASS THAT -- FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS -- WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LARGE BUOYANCY...WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS...7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND REMAINING DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES
2000-3000 J/KG.  AFTER ABOUT 03Z...INFLOW LAYER REGION SHOULD
DECOUPLE OFF SURFACE WITH OPTIMAL INSTABILITY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
MORE ELEVATED. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN SMALL BEFORE
SUNSET BECAUSE OF WEAK SPEEDS...HOWEVER STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT
AND 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FARTHER W ALONG AND N OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE SWWD ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER REGION.

..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

41429949 40899857 40669800 40669727 40919606 41579536
41249449 40569360 39939328 39489361 39039455 38979516
39099618 39569765 40219932 40580047 40930051 41449997 

WWWW