[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271806 
OKZ000-TXZ000-272030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271806Z - 272030Z

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF N TX. RANDOM
AND OVERALL DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A WATCH.

A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WERE OCCURRING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE DFW METRO AREA AND NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST LOCAL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE
SPREADING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER ATTM AND THIS OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SWD TOWARD NWRN SECTIONS OF THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION APPEARS TO BE
SITUATED BETWEEN MWL AND FTW AND THE OUTFLOW SPREADING SOUTH FROM
THE RED RIVER MAY ACT TO ENHANCE MESOSCALE LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA
WHERE HOT...UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL FAVOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION MAY COME FROM A WEAK MCV MOVING EAST ACROSS NWRN
TX.

OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW IS WEAK AND WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY PULSE
OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 08/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

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