[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250559 
MOZ000-KSZ000-250730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN/CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 250559Z - 250730Z

MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MAIN IMPACTS SHIFTING TOWARD HEAVY RAINFALL.  MESOANALYSIS
PLACES A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL ARCING FROM KSZL-KCNU-KHUT.  COLD
POOLS ARE ELONGATING ENEWD AMIDST A WSWLY MEAN FLOW REGIME. 
BUT...PROFILERS/VWPS SUGGEST H5 FLOW IS AOB 30 KTS...MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL
MO/OZARKS.  MOREOVER...INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS WRN
MO AND AS THE COLD POOL SPLAYS EWD...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR
UPDRAFTS TO BE WEAKER.

MEANWHILE...SLY H9-H85 JET HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM WRN OK INTO
SRN KS...EMANATING FROM A RESERVOIR OF MODEST CAPE.  NOSE OF THIS
JET WAS IMPINGING ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS...FORCING ADDITIONAL
UPDRAFT GENERATION/BACKBUILDING ACROSS ERN KS. MAGNITUDE OF
PW/ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ WILL LIKELY KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
OVER THE SAME AREAS IN ERN KS/WRN MO THROUGH DAYBREAK. 
SPECIFICALLY...AREAS FROM JUST EAST OF KICT-KCNU APPEAR TO BE IN THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z.

GIVEN THE DECREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS /HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS/...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 743 WILL EXPIRE ON TIME /07Z/.

..RACY.. 08/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

37189742 38219746 38729744 39129514 39259385 39209323
38399284 37809311 37189455 37079526 

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