[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141608 
NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SERN NY THROUGH MA...RI AND
CT...VT...NH AND NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141608Z - 141815Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT
COUPLE HOURS FROM SRN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND SPREAD EWD
THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW
ENGLAND WSWWD THROUGH SRN NY AND INTO NWRN PA. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF
THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK CAP AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM NRN PA INTO SRN NY. ACTIVITY WILL BE
DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES FROM 25 TO 40 KT IN THE 2-6 KM
LAYER WILL BE MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT ALSO
APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT FROM SE AND E CNTRL NY THROUGH PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.
THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...SOME HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 08/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

41237833 42837523 43247130 41057216 40377444 40587735