[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152208 
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 152208Z - 160015Z

ISOLATED HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE
THREAT.

WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER POINT CONCEPTION CA. TSTMS ALREADY EVOLVING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS
NV INTO NRN AZ AT THIS TIME...AND COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC
FORCING...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...AND LOCAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN NV AND
INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSOLATION ON FRINGE OF
DRYSLOT EAST OF UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
CAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR CA INTO SRN NV. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 25-30 KTS/ MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WOULD FURTHER
ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE AIDED
BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...1.22
INCHES PER DRA 12Z RAOB AND 1.01 INCHES IN 18Z EDW RAOB.

..GUYER.. 08/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX...

34751451 33611663 34391799 34651848 35051872 36491907
37501937 38411816 38841541 38711398 37341285 35881260
35051356