[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142157 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142157Z - 142330Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP E OF WW 721 BY 2230-2300Z AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

AS 2138Z...PAH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOWING
STRUCTURE FROM STE. GENEVIEVE TO BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SERN
MO...SSWWD INTO CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN NERN AR. WHILE OVERALL
SYSTEM MOVEMENT REMAINS AOB 20 KTS...SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION HAS
BEEN RECENTLY NOTED ALONG CREST OF BOW OVER BOLLINGER COUNTY.
PRESENCE OF HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SERN
MO...WRN TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IL IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG. MOREOVER...INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR.

LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT THIS BOWING STRUCTURE IS
LOCATED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT DOWNWIND
COLD POOL ELONGATION AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING
WINDS.

..MEAD.. 08/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX...

38009012 38238924 38348746 38028666 37348669 36888811
36778966 37139023