[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141628 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-141830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141628Z - 141830Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD
THROUGH NRN AR AND INTO SERN MO. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE
INTO SRN IL AND SWRN IND/WRN KY. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL AND
INTO SWRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING.
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN MCV OVER NERN OK. CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST E OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES EWD WHERE THE CAP IS WEAK AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER
90S. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS
WITH EVOLUTION INTO LINES AND BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING
AND HIGH LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 08/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

37348742 36638891 35999056 35069298 37099250 38209030
38758811 38408711 

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