[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132236 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-132330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA/SERN NY AND NRN NJ INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 717...

VALID 132236Z - 132330Z

SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN PART OF WW 717
THIS EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A BOUNDARY...
LOCALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL PA TO THE SWRN MA/CT BORDER.  A MARINE BOUNDARY HAD MOVED
NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NRN CT EWD TO 20
SE BOS.  

STRONGEST STORMS PER REGIONAL RADARS WERE LOCATED NORTH OF THESE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THUS SUGGESTING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED OR POTENTIALLY NEAR SURFACE BASED.  RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FROM NERN PA/SERN NY AND EWD ACROSS MA THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED
WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORMS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MOST OF
CT/RI AND SERN MA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

..PETERS.. 08/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

42747312 42827033 42797003 42206973 41056998 40647203
40237368 40587479 40597583 41497656 42137683 42567506 

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