[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102021 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-102145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102021Z - 102145Z

SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED TODAY N OF FRONTAL
ZONE OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN COVERAGE NOTED OVER
N-CNTRL INTO NERN NEB. INSPECTION OF LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS AND RUC
DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP FRONTAL ZONE
IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD INVOF FRONTAL ZONE
OVER OTOE...SALINE WWD AND THEN SWWD THROUGH CLAY AND FURNAS
COUNTIES IN NEB.

WHILE RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OVER
NRN KS INTO SRN NEB HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES N OF FRONT OVER E-CNTRL NEB INTO W-CNTRL AND
NWRN IA HAVE ALLOWED BOUNDARY-LAYER TO WARM/DESTABILIZE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED... LIKELY
SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN ELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO WLY
AT 20-30 KTS IN THE 4-7 KM AGL LAYER ON CURRENT NELIGH
PROFILER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACTIVITY BECOME ROOTED IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OVER SERN AND
S-CNTRL NEB IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. SHOULD DEEP...MOIST
CONVECTION INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS.

..MEAD.. 08/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

40339867 40599972 41810015 42539920 42709749 42699582
42539509 41859480 41129486 40719515 40599699 

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