From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 02:15:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 21:15:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508010244.j712idTW024453@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010243 MIZ000-WIZ000-010415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...U.P. OF MI...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010243Z - 010415Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN DEEPER RH PLUME EXTENDING FROM NEAR DLH...EWD ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY BY DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MEAN FLOW AND PROPAGATION COMPONENTS FAVOR A CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT INTO PORTIONS OF NERN WI...AND PARTICULARLY NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MOSTLY MULTI-CELL DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOME ROTATION WHICH COULD ENHANCE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH... 47369011 46378448 45198319 44848479 45618805 45789122 46329222 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 16:35:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 11:35:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508011703.j71H3t9u025077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011702 NYZ000-PAZ000-011830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011702Z - 011830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...WEAKER WAVES ARE EVIDENT IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH MAY NOT BE DIGGING ACROSS AREAS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF GEORGIAN BAY/LAKE HURON. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING STORMS. 30 TO 40 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID EVENTUAL PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/ CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE CELL MOTIONS/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS UTICA/ SYRACUSE/ROCHESTER AND AREAS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. ..KERR.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44337592 43897511 43517487 42877494 42207589 41987733 42187856 42487911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 20:34:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 15:34:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508012102.j71L2n60016090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012101 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-012300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN WY...THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE...NERN CO...AND FAR NWRN KS/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012101Z - 012300Z LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE. AT 2050Z...SURFACE THERMAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN NEB WITH A CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING WSWWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE 30N COS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED AND VERY DEEP ALONG THIS AXIS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F AND EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50-60F. ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY EWD AT 5-10KT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS STRONGLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT AND STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION POTENTIAL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DRY MICROBURST ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF SHORT-LIVED BUT LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39550516 40150540 42200582 42940569 43080483 42890385 42440341 40610278 40380190 40370105 40110063 39620084 39230169 39030269 39000431 39130471 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 22:02:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 17:02:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508012231.j71MVMbq021237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012228 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695... VALID 012228Z - 020000Z A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 695. A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS NH AND WRN ME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC TROUGH FROM NRN VT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER QUEBEC AND THE NERN UNITED STATES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10 C WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED ACROSS SRN NY WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 45016910 43977014 43047216 42577457 42637590 43567611 43997526 44467298 45287105 45827018 45726975  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 22:04:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 17:04:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508012233.j71MX9bV021703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012232 SDZ000-NDZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL ND AND FAR N-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012232Z - 020030Z ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN ND AND FAR NRN SD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SPATIALLY CONFINED AND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 2220Z...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND...AND ARE LIKELY BEING FED BY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SW IN THE 1-3KM LAYER. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE-NW ALONG WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL SD INTO WRN ND AND FAR NERN MT. MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILE CAN BE INFERRED FROM BIS VAD WIND PROFILE. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35-40 KT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DECREASES RAPIDLY EWD PER LATEST RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. AS CONVECTION TRACKS GENERALLY ENEWD AT 15-20 KT...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY...SO GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45610226 46210291 47150344 47490337 47720259 47680189 47360127 46920076 46470038 45980024 45490016 45140018 44980058 45040123 45220178 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 23:09:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 18:09:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508012337.j71Nbi7r007830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012336 MTZ000-IDZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL ID...FAR WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012336Z - 020100Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL ID AND FAR WRN MT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS ID WHERE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN ID. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 90S WHICH IS CREATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY (LI OF -4 TO -6 C) FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE LARGE-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO... 45271472 45421594 45821614 46611580 46951430 46451296 45531326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 02:35:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 21:35:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508020303.j7233tXj007543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020302 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020302Z - 020430Z ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN NEB FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WATCH SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN NEB. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN NEB SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF SHEAR...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT SHOULD LAST FOR 1-2 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 40960202 41350261 42590247 44590258 44740090 42120086 41180114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 13:46:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 08:46:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508021414.j72EEj3Y021492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021413 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-021645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...VT...NRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021413Z - 021645Z MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SRN QUE WITH A 50 KT H5 JET AT MOOSONEE. STRONG UPPER MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS ALREADY SUPPORTING AN INTENSIFYING BAND OF TSTMS OVER SERN QUE. VSBL SATL SUGGESTS THAT THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY OWING TO INSOLATION AND 60-65F DEW POINTS. MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE UNCAPPED/INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING STORMS AS THEY HEAD TOWARD ME...NRN VT AND NRN NH THROUGH EARLY AFTN. GIVEN FAST WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...TSTMS WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWPS/BOWS. THUS...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK. THE 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...LIKELY PARTS OF ME INTO NRN VT/NH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY FOLLOW FOR PARTS OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. ..RACY.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF... 45807496 46537230 47476891 47186762 45506721 44806794 43847029 43207281 44057618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 18:02:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 13:02:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508021830.j72IUbEc025658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021829 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-022000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NY STATE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696... VALID 021829Z - 022000Z SATL INDICATES THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 21Z. STRONG TSTMS ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH WITH STRONG WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PER CARIBOU RADAR. FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE NRN PARTS OF ME BY 21Z. 18Z MESOANALYSIS...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY/SRN QUE AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING AGAIN OWING TO HEATING BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. CU STREETS OBSERVED IN VSBL SATL WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO CBS AND DROP SEWD TOWARD NRN PARTS OF NY/VT/NH LATER THIS AFTN...VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z NAM SOLUTION. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN ME INTO NRN NY STATE. FARTHER N...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY PROVE DETRIMENTAL IN SUSTAINING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS NRN/CNTRL ME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EVE. MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS. ..RACY.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... 43307087 43467217 43817428 44987431 44987087 46916749 44906736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 21:51:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 16:51:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508022219.j72MJj3l018946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022218 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022218Z - 030015Z ...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED UNTIL STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW A FEW DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR DETROIT LAKES MN...AND THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED GIVEN ACCAS TYPE APPEARANCE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BIS/ABR SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT...WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME INHIBITION GIVEN CURRENT SFC TEMPS. THIS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION MAY BE BASED AROUND 700MB. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...NOW APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD...SO LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS REGION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING NVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF ND MAY BE INDICATIVE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM IMPULSE. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME INHIBITION AND BECOME SFC BASED...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ..TAYLOR/COHEN.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45889674 47269865 48949862 48979675 48259504 47099444 46469480 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 22:10:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 17:10:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508022238.j72MccAF025788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022237 SDZ000-030000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND N CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022237Z - 030000Z HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN/NRN SD THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR ATTM THAT A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A SERIES OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND INVOF A THERMAL LOW IN WRN SD. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...REVEAL MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG WITH SURFACE MIXED LAYER DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 3 KM. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS SLOWLY ENEWD FROM WY. THE DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS FARTHER E IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 45249967 44379989 43930155 43510282 43820339 44180325 44900242 45940134 45900021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 22:26:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 17:26:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508022255.j72Mt6KX031029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022253 MTZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SE MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022253Z - 030030Z ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE MT. SEVERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THOUGH THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS S CENTRAL MT TO THE W OF BILLINGS. WEAK ELY/NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CONVECTION WITH MODEST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EXPANDING COLD POOL. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK /MUCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG/...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ... 45290512 45070706 45100828 45530873 46110914 46480921 46700801 46650574 46300512 45720486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 23:27:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 18:27:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508022356.j72Nu2o7017767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022355 NDZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022355Z - 030130Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SWD DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS N CENTRAL ND. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS BOTTINEAU/MCHENRY COUNTIES. SWD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE TRIPLE POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ACROSS WEAKENED THIS AREA BY DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/ IS PRESENT NEAR AND E OF THE ONGOING STORMS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY ROUGHLY 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL ND. ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46969972 47220014 48260060 48750078 49010063 49019869 47979848 47479875 47099913 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 04:03:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 23:03:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508030431.j734VtxO009897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030430 MNZ000-NDZ000-030530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698... VALID 030430Z - 030530Z THE SMALL MCS ACROSS ERN ND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ENCOUNTERS STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MOVES E OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN ND. THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AND AN ADDITIONAL WW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY E OF WW 698. ..THOMPSON.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF... 47379770 47749741 48319749 48379707 47739671 47169702 47159770 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 06:30:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 01:30:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508030659.j736xBhB018951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030658 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN SD INTO CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030658Z - 030830Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS HAS OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF NERN SD/SERN ND INTO FAR W-CNTRL MN...INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW W OF HON NEWD TO N OF ATY TO BRD INTO NWRN WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL SD COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THESE STORMS. RUC PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. CURRENT ABR VWP INDICATES 30-40 KTS WSWLY FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM AGL LAYER...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP. ..MEAD.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 45549806 46319795 46859663 47129556 47299474 47169396 46889345 46259324 45909344 45639450 45109621 44919713 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 16:00:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 11:00:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508031628.j73GSrDM015681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031627 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY STATE AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031627Z - 031900Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ATTM...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT EVOLUTION WILL BE MONITORED. VSBL SATL SHOWS CU FIELD BEGINNING TO EXPAND BENEATH CONVECTIVE MID-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 JETLET TRANSLATING THROUGH SERN ONTARIO. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS LOCATED SW OF A BACKDOOR BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS BECOMING UNSTABLE OWING TO RESIDUAL SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 65-70F AND INSOLATION. COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TIED TO THE SPEED MAX...TSTM INITIATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING ACROSS ERN NY AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY FAVOR TERRAIN AND THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM VCNTY KSLK-KGFL AND SEWD INTO MA. THOUGH THE FLOW HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24-HRS...PRESENCE OF AT LEAST 30-40 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND THE PARENT SERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH MAY ENCOURAGE ISOLD TSTMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MOREOVER...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN WILL AUGMENT COLD DOWNDRAFTS. ..RACY.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 44967392 43687342 43027244 42757161 42457115 42037098 41717153 41787269 41957399 42637486 44737499 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 17:26:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 12:26:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508031754.j73Hso33029638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031754 SDZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031754Z - 032030Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL SD THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED A WW. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM SERN ND TO THE BLACK HILLS AND INTO NERN WY. MOIST NLY UPSLOPE FLOW WAS DEEPENING ACROSS WRN SD PER VWP AT RAPID CITY BEHIND THIS FRONT. COMBINATION OF THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING TSTMS...BOTH OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND IN ELEVATED BANDS N OF THE FRONT. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A THERMAL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE BLACK HILLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED ON THE PLAINS...BUT AS HEATING CONTINUES...ELEVATED/HIGHER BASED TSTMS WILL HAVE A GREATER PROBABILITY IN ROOTING INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME A FACTOR IF/WHEN TSTMS DEVELOP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE EVOLVING ALONG/N OF THE FRONT THROUGH 21Z...THEN POSSIBLY EWD INTO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN SD LATER THIS AFTN. ..RACY.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44160352 44860170 45850002 45639800 44859708 43789759 43349858 43090109 43550342 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 18:01:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 13:01:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508031829.j73ITm1p014273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031829 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031829Z - 032030Z ...ISOLD STRONG/SVR STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS AFTN BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED... STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NE MN INVOF HIBBING. STORMS ARE SURFACE BASED GIVEN NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER THE 12Z INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUNDING. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN ONLY INTO THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S PARTIALLY DUE TO ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODERATELY STRONG AND WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. AFFECTED AREA WILL BE LIMITED...SO A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. ..TAYLOR.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH... 46879108 46759262 47379383 48139352 48479274 48509133 48388987 47928908 47008931 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 19:17:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 14:17:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508031946.j73JkVPN025622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031944 COZ000-032245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE AND CNTRL/NRN MOUNTAINS OF CO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031944Z - 032245Z LOCALLY PERSISTENT MDT-HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT FROM TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE URBAN FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS OF CO. TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER AND BOULDER VWP SHOW THAT NELY FLOW IS UP TO ABOUT 1.5 KM BEHIND FIRST WIND SHIFT SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. COLUMN IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE WITH AROUND 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING SWWD FROM SWRN NEB. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/ ROCKIES. EXPECT THAT THE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THE AFTN. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE NELY FLOW INCREASES THIS EVENING...SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. THE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING. PERSISTENT NELY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A PROLONGED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFF THE TERRAIN. AS A RESULT...SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN/BACKBUILD. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST. ..RACY.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 38520517 38840576 39570602 40930574 40890519 40790473 40450455 39740447 38610440 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 19:48:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 14:48:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508032017.j73KH92F010700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032016 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN WI...ERN IA AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032016Z - 032145Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A THERMAL RIDGE FROM NEB ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA INTO CNTRL WI AT MID-AFTN. MLCAPES WITHIN THIS AXIS WERE AROUND 3500 J/KG OWING TO LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. AN ISOLD TSTM HAD FORMED RECENTLY OVER NERN IA ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND NEWD INTO SWRN WI AND RECENT VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS EAST OF KLSE VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEWD FROM NERN IA INTO SWRN WI THROUGH LATE AFTN. BLUE RIVER PROFILER SHOWS MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH ABOUT 2 KM /OWING TO SWLY LLJ/...THEN A WEAKENING PROFILE ABOVE. THIS IS LIMITING THE OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR TO 30 OR 35 KTS. THUS...MAINLY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD RESULT. BUT...GIVEN HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS HAIL AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO SCNTRL WI/NWRN IL LATER THIS EVE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY. ..RACY.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42139294 42889233 43989119 44489036 44278960 43608937 42128908 41378952 41149091 40939231 41439350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 22:17:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 17:17:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508032246.j73MkQjm017179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032245 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN SD...FAR SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699... VALID 032245Z - 040015Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW 699 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD INTO SW MN AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH LATER THIS EVENING. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING IN SERN SD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CNTRL MN SWWD TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS AND INTO CNTRL NEB. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ARE MOVING INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...VWPS AND REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KT SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45019694 44829624 44109605 43599640 43169860 42990065 43530110 44220079 44659900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 23:14:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 18:14:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508032342.j73NgtK2005159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032342 NEZ000-COZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN NEB...FAR NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032342Z - 040115Z STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE CO...WRN NEB AND CNTRL NEB. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN CO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS HELPING STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED IN NE CO AND ACROSS MOST OF NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN WRN NEB SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS FAVOR A HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40330036 40020276 40900355 41610285 42419888 41259798 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 02:35:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 21:35:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508040303.j7433b29005227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040302 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-040430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...NW IA...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 700...701... VALID 040302Z - 040430Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A LINE OF STORMS LOCATED FROM SW MN EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF WW 701...THOUGH THE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS NE IA AND SE MN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM SRN MN EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN NEB. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN US UPPER-TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW MN AND ERN NEB. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SWRN NEB OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR THE STORMS RANGE FROM NEAR 4000 J/KG IN NW IA TO 1500 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CNTRL NEB. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40939910 40810108 41560099 42060035 42989753 44179594 44489511 44319386 43609398 42269562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 16:35:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 11:35:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508051703.j75H3nrU032515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051702 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-051900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051702Z - 051900Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 20-21Z. NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH SEVERE THREAT MOSTLY HIGHLY LOCALIZED OR MINOR...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING THROUGH THE 90S...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING NEAR 70F... CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. UPSTREAM... INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS STEADILY ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH VERMONT/SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO MERGE INTO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...MUCH AS PROGGED BY MODELS...ACROSS OR NEAR THE PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK CITY AND BOSTON AREAS. COUPLED WITH WEAKENING/EASTWARD SHIFT OF HIGH-LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING/INTENSIFYING BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THOUGH WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. ..KERR.. 08/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 40817571 41237506 41997329 42657235 43737155 44287044 43857007 41877073 40687281 39827467 39747558 40257658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 21:13:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 16:13:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508052141.j75LfukB005032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052140 MAZ000-RIZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...RI AND SERN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052140Z - 052315Z LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS ACROSS ERN RI AND SERN MA THROUGH 23Z. CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY SWD INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY RI HAS DEVELOPED A STRONG COLD POOL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AT 40 KT. SURFACE SWLY TRAJECTORIES IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 90S...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF RI/SERN MA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD TAKE THESE STORMS TO NEAR PLYMOUTH BY 2215Z AND ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF CAPE COD BY 23Z. ALTHOUGH MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BOX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES WSWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT BETWEEN 1-3KM AGL. WIND SPEEDS LOCALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD YIELD LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF RI AND SERN MA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX... 42207157 42317128 42327101 42257043 42167001 41986987 41726986 41496992 41457021 41427064 41387111 41357149 41397165 41717169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 21:53:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 16:53:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508052221.j75MLaRJ019007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052220 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...WRN TN...FAR NW AL...FAR NE LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052220Z - 052345Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WRN TN...FAR NW AL AND MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED ACROSS WRN AL. THE STORMS ARE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS AR INTO KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOWN ON VAD WIND PROFILERS IN MS AND AL SUGGESTS MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX... 35548921 36098848 35898773 35168765 33778845 31419005 31059077 31299142 31879154 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 17:22:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 12:22:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508071751.j77Hp40F026947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071750 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR OH VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 071750Z - 071845Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON... BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED OR MINOR IN VERY WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME. WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAK...ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG/SOUTH OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS UNIMPEDED...NORTH OF CLOUDINESS IN DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF COAST UPPER LOW. MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND RISK FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS MAY INCREASE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED 90F WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 08/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 37219033 38508902 39628803 39798666 39538586 39728510 39458423 39238336 39648196 39618082 38648135 38308240 37808404 37238490 36898628 36348830 35978934 36029052 36639058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 18:14:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 13:14:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508071843.j77IhAsd009337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071842 WIZ000-MNZ000-072045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071842Z - 072045Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM N-CENTRAL MN EWD INTO FAR NWRN WI. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 1830Z...STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM JUST SOUTH OF ABR TO 25S BRD TO THE NWRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE IT MERGES WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSITIVE EFFECTS HAVE GRADUALLY MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY. RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT MLCIN REMAINS AROUND -100 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT...HOWEVER...WEAK ELEVATED STORMS EXIST ACROSS CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES IN MN ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SW. CONTINUATION OF WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ELEVATED STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MUCAPE VALUES AROUND BRD INCREASE TO 3500 J/KG BY 20Z ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ARE EVENTUALLY ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING/LESSENING OF CIN THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 08/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 45399283 45929445 46369510 46679566 46959569 47189560 47339511 47289435 47149361 46869293 46629238 46159199 45749169 45449200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 22:03:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 17:03:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508072231.j77MVf6f015541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072230 WIZ000-MNZ000-080030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072230Z - 080030Z THE AREA FROM CENTRAL MN EWD INTO WRN WI IS BEING MONITORED FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AT 2215Z...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD FROM JUST SOUTH OF ABR TO 25S BJI TO 10S HIB. AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. COMBINATION OF NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS CENTRAL MN. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F...ABSOLUTE CIN IS CURRENTLY VERY LOW WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR INITIATION IS LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY CURRENTLY....WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS FAR ERN MT SWD INTO NERN WY. STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE IS FOCUSING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS WITH MINIMAL SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL MN. TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS POSSIBLE WITH WEAKER LEADING WAVE...AND SHORT-RANGE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS. WNWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 08/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 44459437 45049531 46319586 46959569 47179506 47089346 46939271 46529240 45819217 44779208 44429281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 00:27:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 19:27:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508080055.j780tKRT018923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080054 WIZ000-MNZ000-080200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL MN AND FAR WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702... VALID 080054Z - 080200Z CONTINUE WW 702. INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MILLE LACS AND KANABEC COUNTIES IN E-CENTRAL MN HAS DISSIPATED SINCE 08/00Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATE CU FIELD IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...THE DEEP-LAYER FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME. WITH LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIMITED OVER THE WATCH AREA. IF ADDITIONAL T-STORMS DO NOT FORM...WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED AROUND 02Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 44569476 44909486 46559515 46669509 46689423 46689248 46649233 45529212 44789200 44659196 44559200 44519328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 09:24:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 04:24:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508080952.j789qjg2004333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080952 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080951 WIZ000-MNZ000-081145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080951Z - 081145Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SRN MN AND WRN WI THIS MORNING. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...AND AHEAD OF FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN AND EXTREME WRN WI. ALTHOUGH STORM UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY ROOTED WELL ABOVE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION...STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXIST IN THE 700MB THROUGH 500MB LAYER TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST RUC FORECASTS INDICATED THAT 45-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN DIRECTED INTO WRN/CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION FROM UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 45999390 46259243 44749128 43849501 45449619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 14:18:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 09:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508081446.j78EktFd024026@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081445 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-081615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703... VALID 081445Z - 081615Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 16Z. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...WW RE-ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS WW 703 HAVE NOT ORGANIZED AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NOTED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF TSTM COMPLEX WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING IS TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OWING TO DIURNAL WEAKENING OF WLY LLJ AND SWD DISPLACEMENT OF STORMS FROM PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES HAVE DISCOURAGED STORM ORGANIZATION THUS FAR. ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 16Z. A REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 45849541 45879022 43449058 43469559 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 22:23:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 17:23:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508082252.j78Mq01S022610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082251 MNZ000-SDZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082251Z - 090015Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS ALLOWED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD INTO SWRN MN...8.5-9.5C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. WITH SFC DEW POINTS HOLDING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...MLCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 4000J/KG ALONG WIND SHIFT THAT EXTENDS FROM SWIFT COUNTY MN...SWWD INTO CLARK COUNTY SD. SEVERAL UPDRAFTS HAVE REACHED THEIR LFC AND MAY BECOME SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF SO...A SSEWD DRIFT WOULD OCCUR ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STORM MERGERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES. ..DARROW.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44919842 45449572 44509500 44059662 43819885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 22:33:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 17:33:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508082302.j78N22dF026183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082301 COR MNZ000-SDZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082301Z - 090015Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS ALLOWED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD INTO SWRN MN...8.5-9.5C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. WITH SFC DEW POINTS HOLDING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...MLCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 4000J/KG ALONG WIND SHIFT THAT EXTENDS FROM SWIFT COUNTY MN...SWWD INTO CLARK COUNTY SD. SEVERAL UPDRAFTS HAVE REACHED THEIR LFC AND MAY BECOME SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF SO...A SSEWD DRIFT WOULD OCCUR ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STORM MERGERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES. ..DARROW.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44919842 45449572 44509500 44059662 43819885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 16:24:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 11:24:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508091652.j79GqkDc027701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091651 WIZ000-MNZ000-091815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN INTO NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091651Z - 091815Z LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO E AND W OF STC WITH A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THE N OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MPX 0.5 DEGREE BASE REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD...THUS INTENSIFYING STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER NWRN WI. RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN/CNTRL MN IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45089491 45669497 46209413 46449259 46629111 46238997 45788994 45059085 44809203 44699406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 17:28:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 12:28:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508091756.j79HuG1K032697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091755 TXZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091755Z - 091930Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE OVER MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER. LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS NWRN INTO SERN TX AND WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF BOUNDARY DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 10-20 KTS. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND WEAK SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER W CENTRAL TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31359670 31859596 32069539 31259401 29849408 29279508 28789564 28689634 28979718 30950050 32180158 33110187 32780157 32950103 32860014 32279958 31529786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 18:22:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 13:22:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508091851.j79Ip2H1029434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091850 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA / SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091850Z - 092015Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT. 12Z PHOENIX RAOB INDICATES EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS PRESENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK...STRONG INSTABILITY AND NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS A FEW SEVERE PULSE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY....WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS DESPITE WARM AND MOIST PROFILES. 18Z RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING SWWD ACROSS SRN NV AND NWRN AZ. STORMS AND OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO SERN CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS LOWER PRESSURES...AND MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32661619 33541668 34091698 35871602 35931468 35151376 34571306 34621175 34091040 33201000 31931026 31331049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 19:29:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 14:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508091958.j79Jw5nd001318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091957 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091956 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091956Z - 092130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM TSTM COMPLEX OVER KNOX...ANTELOPE...HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES IN NEB WSWWD INTO THOMAS COUNTY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TCU LINE FROM YUMA INTO PUEBLO COUNTIES IN ERN CO. AIR MASS S OF FRONTAL ZONE HAS HEATED WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTING OVER CNTRL INTO ERN NEB WITHIN AXIS OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THAT BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS GENERALLY N OF THE NEB/SD BORDER...VERTICAL SHEAR TENDS TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... 42389853 41709841 40500006 39580124 38490250 38530349 39180315 41180158 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 21:59:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 16:59:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508092227.j79MRF6Z010054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092226 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA TO NERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707...708... VALID 092226Z - 100000Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE ACROSS NRN IA AND CENTRAL WI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM... SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FORCING MATURING SQUALL LINE SEWD ACROSS NWRN IA INTO CNTRL WI. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EXPAND LINEARLY WITH EMBEDDED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM SUGGESTING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF CURRENT WATCHES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42599558 44858983 44798754 44168818 42839214 41839457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 23:33:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 18:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508100001.j7A01UIr007157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100000 NEZ000-KSZ000-100130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 709... VALID 100000Z - 100130Z ...STRONG STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEB... MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE SLOWLY MERGING OVER SERN PORTIONS OF THE WW. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WITHIN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SFC-3KM VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM. IT APPEARS SWD PROPAGATION WILL CONTINUE AS SLY INFLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15KT PERSISTS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN KS INTO SCNTRL NEB. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...IT APPEARS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 39680162 41040057 41549951 41339858 40169852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 00:48:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 19:48:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508100116.j7A1Ggbq030659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100113 WIZ000-100245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN...ERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707... VALID 100113Z - 100245Z ...SQUALL LINE SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ECNTRL/SERN WI. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... SURGING PORTION OF SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF WI...ARCING FROM PORTAGE COUNTY TO MARQUETTE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES...AND ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES LAKE MI. MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...LESS THAN 1000J/KG...SUPPORTING GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 43149036 43718918 44438870 44328749 43208796 42649005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 18:44:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 13:44:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508101912.j7AJCOD8023207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101910 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PNHDL INTO NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101910Z - 102015Z POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WY INTO WRN SD...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SWRN MT AND NWRN CO. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HAVE RESULTED IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. CURRENT PROFILERS AND VWPS SHOW THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS/ ACROSS NWRN WY INTO WRN SD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES IN PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER DOES INDICATE A 25 KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF SRN DISTURBANCE...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FARTHER S OVER NERN CO/SERN WY INTO THE SRN NEB PNHDL. FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SHEAR INSTABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 41000259 40360332 40380476 40890539 42390559 44190547 44880483 45040401 45000324 44500254 42230257  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 18:53:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 13:53:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508101921.j7AJLVmV027587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101920 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-102015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT / CENTRAL AND NWRN WY / FAR NERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101920Z - 102015Z SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOW END SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WY / SWRN MT / NERN ID AND WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME HAIL. SURFACE OA FIELDS INDICATE CAPPING EXISTS FARTHER E TOWARD BIL...BUT CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ERASE CAP WITH TIME. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..JEWELL.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 46310770 45280683 42810671 42880870 44181288 44921323 45781293 46431127 46480849 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 19:54:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 14:54:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508102022.j7AKMauT027839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102021 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102021Z - 102145Z SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED TODAY N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN COVERAGE NOTED OVER N-CNTRL INTO NERN NEB. INSPECTION OF LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP FRONTAL ZONE IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD INVOF FRONTAL ZONE OVER OTOE...SALINE WWD AND THEN SWWD THROUGH CLAY AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEB. WHILE RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OVER NRN KS INTO SRN NEB HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES N OF FRONT OVER E-CNTRL NEB INTO W-CNTRL AND NWRN IA HAVE ALLOWED BOUNDARY-LAYER TO WARM/DESTABILIZE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED... LIKELY SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN ELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO WLY AT 20-30 KTS IN THE 4-7 KM AGL LAYER ON CURRENT NELIGH PROFILER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACTIVITY BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OVER SERN AND S-CNTRL NEB IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. SHOULD DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40339867 40599972 41810015 42539920 42709749 42699582 42539509 41859480 41129486 40719515 40599699 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 21:42:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 16:42:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508102210.j7AMAKSN017738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102209 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... VALID 102209Z - 102315Z STORMS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN WY...SWRN SD AND WRN NEB NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ERN WY SEWD INTO SRN NEB. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN WY MOVES EWD AND LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN NEB. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND ELEVATED STORM UPDRAFTS...SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... 44480622 44510192 40960110 40960531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 22:05:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 17:05:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508102233.j7AMXZ8F025961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102232 WYZ000-MTZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MT / WRN AND CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711... VALID 102232Z - 110000Z THREAT CONTINUES FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MT. DISTINCT VERTICAL MOTION FEATURE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SUPERCELLULAR TYPE STORMS OVER NERN MT WHERE INSTABILITY IS MEAGER. ANOTHER FEATURE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE YELLOWSTONE AREA. MOST PERSISTENT THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLE WIND WILL BE ACROSS MT...INCLUDING NRN PORTIONS OF WW 711...AS ELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL JET BOTH ADVECTS MOISTURE WWD AND MAXIMIZES DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG CAP ACROSS NERN MT...THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH HAIL THREAT AS FAR E AS ND. ..JEWELL.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 42600591 42560895 46951187 46930838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 23:40:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 18:40:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508110008.j7B08Vhb025805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110007 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-110100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD AND MUCH OF NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712...713... VALID 110007Z - 110100Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN WY...SWRN SD AND MUCH OF NEB. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEB NWWD INTO ERN WY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN NERN WY. VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS EXTREME ERN CO/WRN KS AND THIS SHOULD AID THE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF STORMS FROM EAST OF AIA TO SNY AND SWD INTO NERN CO WILL SHIFT EWD AND MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. STORMS IN ERN NEB HAVE RECENTLY WEAKENED...BUT OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL/ERN BETWEEN 02-04Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS INTO THAT AREA. ..IMY.. 08/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW... 41040379 42210414 42500559 44520625 44510183 42790148 42089508 40579512 40960043 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 18:13:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 13:13:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508111841.j7BIfs9I006188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111841 OHZ000-INZ000-112045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IND THROUGH W CNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111841Z - 112045Z STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER CNTRL IND AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD THROUGH E CNTRL IND AND W CNTRL OH. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL IND FROM NEAR GREENTOWN SWWD TO NEAR LEBANON AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 20 TO 25 KT. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF AN E-W ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AND MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR TO HAIL SIZE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 8 TO 8.5 C/KM AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THE STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE. ..DIAL.. 08/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND... 39598394 39668506 39748649 40418582 40658474 40408343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 19:45:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 14:45:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508112013.j7BKDV9H024743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112012 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB THROUGH SWRN AND S CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112012Z - 112215Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IA INTO SERN NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SRN IA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WEAK CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING ASCENT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS FROM SERN NEB THROUGH SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND...EXPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. ..DIAL.. 08/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40529308 40749443 40549617 41289640 41849459 41539256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 21:57:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 16:57:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508112225.j7BMPbQb023548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112224 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL / CENTRAL IN / WRN OH / FAR NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112224Z - 112330Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FLOW AROUND 850 MB HAS BACKED LAST FEW HOURS AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE SW BY 00Z. GIVEN PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY AND NEGLIGIBLE CAPPING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. NRN INDIANA PROFILER SHOWS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT FOR SUPERCELLS...AS DO CHICAGO AREA VWPS. THUS...LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.75" DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN IL AND IN. ..JEWELL.. 08/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39388874 39989069 41179033 41308942 41208848 41068714 40918617 40098286 39188279 38378355 38828589 39118740 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 00:15:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 19:15:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508120043.j7C0h6o6004691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120042 ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714... VALID 120042Z - 120215Z THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN HALF OF WW 714 THROUGH 03Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW SW OF ALO WITH AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THIS FEATURE INTO CNTRL IL. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN MN TO THE CNTRL IA LOW AND THEN SWWD INTO NWRN MO. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN IA COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA HAVE LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR NEAR OTM. 00Z DVN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED FOR MEAN-MIXED PARCELS WITH A MLCAPE OF AROUND 900 J/KG. ONGOING STORMS INDICATE THAT PARCELS ARE INDEED REACHING THEIR LFC/S...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL WEAK BUOYANCY...STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SW IA DISTURBANCE...LIKELY LEADING TO A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ONGOING ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX...OAX... 42339512 42549046 40919038 40659498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 03:15:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 22:15:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508120343.j7C3hNLE032053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120342 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI INTO NWRN IND AND PERHAPS SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120342Z - 120515Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WAS ALSO NOTED N OF ATTENDANT WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF SRN WI AND AS FAR E AS SRN LAKE MI. ACTIVITY OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER ERN IA IS LIKELY SURFACE-BASED WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE SOME WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL WINDS /PER LOCAL VWPS/...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR /ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS/ REMAINS RATHER STRONG. IT APPEARS THAT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND POOR LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN IL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. N OF WARM FRONT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS SRN WI AND ACROSS SRN LAKE MI. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER THE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40939134 41599138 42389108 43189041 43468929 43118705 42518605 41618606 40978657 40488759 40378962 40689086 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 15:09:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 10:09:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508121537.j7CFbSHv021156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121536 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121536 NYZ000-PAZ000-121730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SWRN NY THROUGH NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121536Z - 121730Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SRN NY INTO NRN PA NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WNWWD INTO NRN PA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATES EAST INTO NY. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE OH VALLEY ADVECTING NEWD WITH MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE INTO SRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ..DIAL.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42677878 42757672 42317500 41177555 40907726 41347936 42258041 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 17:40:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 12:40:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508121808.j7CI8U9h003398@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121807 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL IL...NRN IND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121807Z - 122000Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NRN IL...NRN IND INTO SRN LOWER MI. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN IL. THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT IS DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN POOR 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PROCESS WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK CAP AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41199005 41988728 43088403 41908348 40968627 40368971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 19:41:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 14:41:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508122009.j7CK9nAh028524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122008 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE ID/SRN MT AND NRN/CNTRL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122008Z - 122215Z THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL /AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM NE ID/SW MT INTO MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL WY AND EXTREME SE MT. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN ID AT THIS TIME. GIVEN EWD TRANSITION OF UPWARD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.,.TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /AROUND -15C AT 500 MB/ AND WRN EXTENT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL AS FAR WEST AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE ID/SW MT THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...A MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WY INTO EXTREME SE MT...SUCH THAT A WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED 12Z RIVERTON WY RAOB/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WY. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 45441465 46211399 46401220 45721017 45340498 44040469 42600502 42921000 44011160 44231399 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 20:02:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 15:02:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508122030.j7CKUVUE005403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122029 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-122230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY THROUGH NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715... VALID 122029Z - 122230Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM S CNTRL INTO SERN NY AND NRN CNTRL THROUGH NERN PA. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM S CNTRL NY INTO N CNTRL PA MOVING EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT IN VICINITY OF AND JUST N OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WITH 35 TO 40 KT THROUGH 6 KM. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED...AND SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HAIL. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD THROUGH S CNTRL/SERN NY AND N CNTRL/NERN PA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W INTO THE WRN PARTS OF WW 715 MAY BE LIMITED BY LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND APPARENT SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..DIAL.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 42527599 41857392 41097432 40997642 41177854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 20:30:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 15:30:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508122058.j7CKwN70019157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122057 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/NRN OK AND SRN/ERN KS INTO SW/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122057Z - 122300Z POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR PULSE-TYPE/ISOLD DAMAGING MICROBURSTS /AND PERHAPS A LARGE HAILSTONE OR TWO/ ACROSS NRN/WCNTRL OK AND SRN/ERN KS INTO SW/CNTRL MO. A SEVERE WATCH IS UNLIKELY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS SRN KS/CNTRL MO...SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN/WCNTRL OK. AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH 17Z LAMONT OK RAOB/REGIONAL RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING 2500-3000 J/KG MUCAPE. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OF 15-20 KTS OR LESS BELOW 6 KM WILL LEAD TO RATHER LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE MODE. ISOLD DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37689901 38559736 39419392 39509188 38839106 37799129 36919355 35719667 35419745 35649863 36549939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 22:58:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 17:58:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508130015.j7D0FxVh021521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130013 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-130145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/FAR SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716... VALID 130013Z - 130145Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 716 CONTINUES ACROSS ERN WY UNTIL 05Z. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD ESE INTO FAR SW SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUE AT THIS TIME ACROSS ERN WY IN WW 716...WHERE AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE TORNADO OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN MODEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. WITH EWD TRANSITION OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES IMPULSE...COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF SELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONGEAL/EXPAND ESE INTO FAR SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY BREACH EWD OUT OF WW 716 INTO FAR SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY OWING TO MODEST INSTABILITY/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GUYER.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW... 43540665 44000549 43960400 43460284 42010221 41200230 41140385 42130599 42850662  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 00:45:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 19:45:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508130203.j7D23MKc016556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130202 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-130300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN WY INTO SWRN SD AND NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716... VALID 130202Z - 130300Z THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...REMAINING PORTION OF WW 716 WILL BE CANCELLED BY 03Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WY HAVE WEAKENED AND MERGED INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY WY ENEWD TO SHANNON COUNTY IN SWRN SD. DESPITE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS/ ACROSS AREA...A COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN AIR MASS STABILITY IS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY. LINEAR ORIENTATION OF STORMS SUGGESTS SOME COLD POOL ORGANIZATION. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...REMAINING PORTION OF WW 716 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 03Z. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW... 43330629 43710231 42990197 42410341 42010412 42020614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 20:24:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 15:24:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508132142.j7DLg7nG013967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132141 OKZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0441 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK...INCLUDING THE OKC METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132141Z - 132315Z DAMAGING MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL OK /INCLUDING THE OKC METRO AREA/ INTO EARLY EVENING. RELATIVELY WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL ACROSS SW OK /INVOF LAWTON AREA/ EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A NNE MOVEMENT OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS INTO CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL SHEAR IS WEAK...SWLYS IN LOW/MID LEVELS PER PURCELL OK PROFILER WILL SUPPORT COLD POOL PROPAGATION. AMBIENT AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL OK AHEAD OF THESE TSTMS HAS GRADUALLY RECOVERED IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF APPROX 2000 J/KG MLCAPE WHERE MODEST INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED. DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..GUYER.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 35309879 35799856 36069746 35779603 34869590 34059647 34419764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 21:20:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 16:20:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508132238.j7DMc7vg028810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132236 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-132330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA/SERN NY AND NRN NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 717... VALID 132236Z - 132330Z SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN PART OF WW 717 THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A BOUNDARY... LOCALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SWRN MA/CT BORDER. A MARINE BOUNDARY HAD MOVED NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NRN CT EWD TO 20 SE BOS. STRONGEST STORMS PER REGIONAL RADARS WERE LOCATED NORTH OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THUS SUGGESTING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED OR POTENTIALLY NEAR SURFACE BASED. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FROM NERN PA/SERN NY AND EWD ACROSS MA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MOST OF CT/RI AND SERN MA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..PETERS.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 42747312 42827033 42797003 42206973 41056998 40647203 40237368 40587479 40597583 41497656 42137683 42567506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 22:11:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 17:11:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508132329.j7DNTJdK008748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132328 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL AND WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719... VALID 132328Z - 140030Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 719. SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WW 719 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...THUS PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW AT THIS TIME. 23Z MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN IND WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL /TO THE NORTH OF THE EWD MOVING BOW ECHOES/ AND INTO NRN MO. A SECOND BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM AN MCV OVER NERN IND SWWD INTO THE APEX OF THE LEADING BOW ECHO OVER CENTRAL IL...NEAR 25 NNW SLO. RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A 30 KT FORWARD MOTION WITH THE LEADING BOW ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IL. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LEADING BOW AND AN WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS EWD MAINLY ALONG THE SECOND BOUNDARY INTO IND. THE SECOND BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EWD AT 40-45 KT ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THAT THIS SECOND BOW IS LIKELY ELEVATED...SINCE IT IS MOVING INTO THE STABLE COLD POOL REGION OF THE LEAD BOW. ..PETERS.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 38009151 38559139 39529174 39809123 39748919 39938785 39908696 39228655 38398679 37968841 37719132 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 22:32:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 17:32:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508132349.j7DNnRBr013055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132348 OHZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718... VALID 132348Z - 140115Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 718 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS NRN OH. MCV PROGRESSING EWD FROM FAR NE IND INTO NW OH AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA ACROSS FAR NE INDIANA/NRN OH...AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS APPARENTLY BEGUN TO WANE VIA PREVIOUS CONVECTION/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN OH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AIDED BY MCV...NORTHERN INDIANA WSR-88D VWP IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTIVE OF 30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NCNTRL OH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IT APPEARS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 718 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. ..GUYER.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... 41618439 41668352 41318158 41428069 40758086 40298121 40558458 40918465 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeAlb029722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141608 NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SERN NY THROUGH MA...RI AND CT...VT...NH AND NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141608Z - 141815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM SRN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD THROUGH SRN NY AND INTO NWRN PA. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK CAP AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM NRN PA INTO SRN NY. ACTIVITY WILL BE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES FROM 25 TO 40 KT IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER WILL BE MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT ALSO APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM SE AND E CNTRL NY THROUGH PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41237833 42837523 43247130 41057216 40377444 40587735 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeBFT029742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150123 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-150230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN PA AND CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 150123Z - 150230Z A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. AS OF 0112Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM WRN CT SWWD INTO NRN NJ AND PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN PA. WEDGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS THIS EVENING OVER SERN PA AND NRN/CNTRL NJ WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN AT LEAST SRN PORTION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FARTHER TO THE NE...COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC HAVE EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER OVER LONG ISLAND...NYC NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS MOVING INTO THIS COOLER AIR MASS...IT APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SERN PA INTO CNTRL NJ THROUGH 02 OR 03Z. ..MEAD.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39787761 42767324 42636994 40686998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeE7d029773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141628 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141628Z - 141830Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN AR AND INTO SERN MO. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO SRN IL AND SWRN IND/WRN KY. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL AND INTO SWRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER NERN OK. CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST E OF THIS FEATURE ALONG A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD WHERE THE CAP IS WEAK AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 90S. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH EVOLUTION INTO LINES AND BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND HIGH LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37348742 36638891 35999056 35069298 37099250 38209030 38758811 38408711 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeDGE029747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152208 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 152208Z - 160015Z ISOLATED HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER POINT CONCEPTION CA. TSTMS ALREADY EVOLVING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS NV INTO NRN AZ AT THIS TIME...AND COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...AND LOCAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN NV AND INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSOLATION ON FRINGE OF DRYSLOT EAST OF UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR CA INTO SRN NV. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 25-30 KTS/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...1.22 INCHES PER DRA 12Z RAOB AND 1.01 INCHES IN 18Z EDW RAOB. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 34751451 33611663 34391799 34651848 35051872 36491907 37501937 38411816 38841541 38711398 37341285 35881260 35051356  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeDC7029759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142157 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142157Z - 142330Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 721 BY 2230-2300Z AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. AS 2138Z...PAH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURE FROM STE. GENEVIEVE TO BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SERN MO...SSWWD INTO CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN NERN AR. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT REMAINS AOB 20 KTS...SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION HAS BEEN RECENTLY NOTED ALONG CREST OF BOW OVER BOLLINGER COUNTY. PRESENCE OF HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SERN MO...WRN TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IL IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR. LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT THIS BOWING STRUCTURE IS LOCATED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT DOWNWIND COLD POOL ELONGATION AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX... 38009012 38238924 38348746 38028666 37348669 36888811 36778966 37139023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeHap029831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150123 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-150230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN PA AND CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 150123Z - 150230Z A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. AS OF 0112Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM WRN CT SWWD INTO NRN NJ AND PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN PA. WEDGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS THIS EVENING OVER SERN PA AND NRN/CNTRL NJ WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN AT LEAST SRN PORTION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FARTHER TO THE NE...COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC HAVE EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER OVER LONG ISLAND...NYC NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS MOVING INTO THIS COOLER AIR MASS...IT APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SERN PA INTO CNTRL NJ THROUGH 02 OR 03Z. ..MEAD.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39787761 42767324 42636994 40686998  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeHd4029803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142038 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SRN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 142038Z - 142245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NY AND NW PA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. SUPERCELL THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST FROM E CNTRL AND SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE GREATEST HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AFTER WHICH STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41067058 40007761 41997807 43147100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeLNn029936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142157 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142157Z - 142330Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 721 BY 2230-2300Z AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. AS 2138Z...PAH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURE FROM STE. GENEVIEVE TO BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SERN MO...SSWWD INTO CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN NERN AR. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT REMAINS AOB 20 KTS...SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION HAS BEEN RECENTLY NOTED ALONG CREST OF BOW OVER BOLLINGER COUNTY. PRESENCE OF HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SERN MO...WRN TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IL IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR. LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT THIS BOWING STRUCTURE IS LOCATED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT DOWNWIND COLD POOL ELONGATION AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX... 38009012 38238924 38348746 38028666 37348669 36888811 36778966 37139023  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeNQU029965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150123 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-150230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN PA AND CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 150123Z - 150230Z A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. AS OF 0112Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM WRN CT SWWD INTO NRN NJ AND PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN PA. WEDGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS THIS EVENING OVER SERN PA AND NRN/CNTRL NJ WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN AT LEAST SRN PORTION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FARTHER TO THE NE...COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC HAVE EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER OVER LONG ISLAND...NYC NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS MOVING INTO THIS COOLER AIR MASS...IT APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SERN PA INTO CNTRL NJ THROUGH 02 OR 03Z. ..MEAD.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39787761 42767324 42636994 40686998  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeR8M030015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141628 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141628Z - 141830Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN AR AND INTO SERN MO. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO SRN IL AND SWRN IND/WRN KY. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL AND INTO SWRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER NERN OK. CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST E OF THIS FEATURE ALONG A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD WHERE THE CAP IS WEAK AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 90S. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH EVOLUTION INTO LINES AND BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND HIGH LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37348742 36638891 35999056 35069298 37099250 38209030 38758811 38408711  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeUge030079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150210 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-150315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY/SERN IL AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 722... VALID 150210Z - 150315Z ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND WW 722 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. TRENDS IN LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT PERSISTENT BOWING STRUCTURE HAS FRACTURED AND WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT OUTRUNNING SRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE BY 10-15 MILES. PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS FROM VICINITY OF BWG NWD TO THE OH RIVER HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED INFLOW INTO DECAYING BOW STRUCTURE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03 OR 04Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHING AND WW 722 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG... 36458815 38618783 38618624 36758627  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeJro029882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141628 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141628Z - 141830Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN AR AND INTO SERN MO. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO SRN IL AND SWRN IND/WRN KY. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL AND INTO SWRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER NERN OK. CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST E OF THIS FEATURE ALONG A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD WHERE THE CAP IS WEAK AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 90S. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH EVOLUTION INTO LINES AND BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND HIGH LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37348742 36638891 35999056 35069298 37099250 38209030 38758811 38408711  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeEx8029779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151859 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY/WRN INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151859Z - 152100Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED THREAT BEGIN TO EVOLVE. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR SRN KY...SEEMINGLY COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAYS TSTMS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX/MCV OVER SRN MO. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER DEPICTING 20-30 KT WSWLYS IN 1-6 KM LAYER. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36159142 37839143 38528768 38688581 36468521 35418608 35118774 35119095  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeRW8030004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142038 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SRN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 142038Z - 142245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NY AND NW PA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. SUPERCELL THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST FROM E CNTRL AND SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE GREATEST HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AFTER WHICH STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41067058 40007761 41997807 43147100  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeKoK029896@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142157 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142157Z - 142330Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 721 BY 2230-2300Z AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. AS 2138Z...PAH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURE FROM STE. GENEVIEVE TO BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SERN MO...SSWWD INTO CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN NERN AR. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT REMAINS AOB 20 KTS...SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION HAS BEEN RECENTLY NOTED ALONG CREST OF BOW OVER BOLLINGER COUNTY. PRESENCE OF HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SERN MO...WRN TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IL IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR. LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT THIS BOWING STRUCTURE IS LOCATED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT DOWNWIND COLD POOL ELONGATION AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX... 38009012 38238924 38348746 38028666 37348669 36888811 36778966 37139023  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeTei030061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151859 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY/WRN INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151859Z - 152100Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED THREAT BEGIN TO EVOLVE. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR SRN KY...SEEMINGLY COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAYS TSTMS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX/MCV OVER SRN MO. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER DEPICTING 20-30 KT WSWLYS IN 1-6 KM LAYER. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36159142 37839143 38528768 38688581 36468521 35418608 35118774 35119095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeMdM029960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142038 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SRN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 142038Z - 142245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NY AND NW PA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. SUPERCELL THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST FROM E CNTRL AND SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE GREATEST HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AFTER WHICH STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41067058 40007761 41997807 43147100  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeOip029979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151859 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY/WRN INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151859Z - 152100Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED THREAT BEGIN TO EVOLVE. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR SRN KY...SEEMINGLY COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAYS TSTMS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX/MCV OVER SRN MO. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER DEPICTING 20-30 KT WSWLYS IN 1-6 KM LAYER. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36159142 37839143 38528768 38688581 36468521 35418608 35118774 35119095  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeISl029867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152208 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 152208Z - 160015Z ISOLATED HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER POINT CONCEPTION CA. TSTMS ALREADY EVOLVING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS NV INTO NRN AZ AT THIS TIME...AND COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...AND LOCAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN NV AND INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSOLATION ON FRINGE OF DRYSLOT EAST OF UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR CA INTO SRN NV. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 25-30 KTS/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...1.22 INCHES PER DRA 12Z RAOB AND 1.01 INCHES IN 18Z EDW RAOB. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 34751451 33611663 34391799 34651848 35051872 36491907 37501937 38411816 38841541 38711398 37341285 35881260 35051356  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeS3a030028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141608 NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SERN NY THROUGH MA...RI AND CT...VT...NH AND NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141608Z - 141815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM SRN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD THROUGH SRN NY AND INTO NWRN PA. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK CAP AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM NRN PA INTO SRN NY. ACTIVITY WILL BE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES FROM 25 TO 40 KT IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER WILL BE MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT ALSO APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM SE AND E CNTRL NY THROUGH PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41237833 42837523 43247130 41057216 40377444 40587735  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeKcu029919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152208 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 152208Z - 160015Z ISOLATED HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER POINT CONCEPTION CA. TSTMS ALREADY EVOLVING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS NV INTO NRN AZ AT THIS TIME...AND COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...AND LOCAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN NV AND INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSOLATION ON FRINGE OF DRYSLOT EAST OF UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR CA INTO SRN NV. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 25-30 KTS/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...1.22 INCHES PER DRA 12Z RAOB AND 1.01 INCHES IN 18Z EDW RAOB. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 34751451 33611663 34391799 34651848 35051872 36491907 37501937 38411816 38841541 38711398 37341285 35881260 35051356 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 15:55:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 10:55:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171713.j7HHDGws024452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171712 SCZ000-GAZ000-171915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SC...ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171712Z - 171915Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY 19Z OVER CENTRAL/ERN SC AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO A SMALL CLUSTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN DMGG WIND THREAT POSSIBLE INTO ERN GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE AND WW. VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS SC...WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. AT MID LEVELS...DRY AIR WAS EVIDENT PER WV IMAGERY OVER SRN SC INTO ERN/SRN GA. INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NW OF CAE TO MYR WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 10-15 KTS. DESPITE WEAK AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMBIENT MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. GIVEN A FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY DEVELOP BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO SRN SC AND EVENTUALLY ERN GA. IF THIS BECOMES APPARENT BEFORE THEN...AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK AND WW ISSUANCE WOULD BE CONSIDERED. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 33867868 34237943 34378028 34378191 33738289 31938258 31438194 31358122 32028087 32867978 33167916 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 16:44:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 11:44:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171801.j7HI1ipk017972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171800 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-172000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171800Z - 172000Z THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN AT PRESENT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MVC OVER THE MO/AR BORDER. MODEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS/WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN NNEWD MOVEMENT OF A SFC TROUGH/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MKL IN WRN TN SEWD TO SW OF HUN IN NRN AL. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ATTM...AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW /PER LITTLE ROCK VWP WITH 20 KTS WLY FLOW FROM 2-5 KM/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED DMGG WINDS. GIVEN THE AMT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO WRN TN/NRN MS ATTM...A COLD POOL/ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE APPARENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 36168823 36038869 35498924 34988938 34468943 33958932 33778909 33538861 33318733 33638597 33958567 34478574 35048608 35578636 35968683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 16:46:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 11:46:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171804.j7HI4Uxu019483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171803 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-171930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171803Z - 171930Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ND AND NRN SD...AS WELL AS WRN MN...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTED GRADUALLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN ND AND INTO WRN MN. AIR MASS FLOWING INTO AND ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK INHIBITION. EXPECT NEAR SFC-BASED TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIFT ACROSS THE REGION IS ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM WY. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELL STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45409935 45300139 44930267 45940202 47100135 47539933 47789575 47819456 47039392 46649384 45959358 45779568 45389683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 18:59:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 13:59:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508172017.j7HKHJjP003684@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172016 NEZ000-SDZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172016Z - 172145Z PARTS OF SRN SD AND NRN/CNTRL NEB ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING SFC LOW CENTERED OVER WRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WEAKENING INHIBITION AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SHARPENING DRYLINE MAY AID STORM IMITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEGREE OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL LEAD TO SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS CONVECTION AS IT INCREASES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44330153 41030158 42109731 45419733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 19:07:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 14:07:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508172024.j7HKOwaT008462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172024 OKZ000-KSZ000-172230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NCENTRAL OK...SWRN/SCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172024Z - 172230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 22Z ACROSS FAR NWRN OK/SWRN KS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MDT-TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM PAWNEE AND BARTON COUNTIES OF SWRN KS SWD INTO WOODS/ALFALFA COUNTIES IN NWRN OK. A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF DDC INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING NEWD TOWARDS THE REGION OUT OF SRN CO/NM. ONE OF THESE IS LIKELY THE SOURCE OF EARLY INITIATION OF AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE NRN PANHANDLE. THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES COMBINED WITH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS AS MINIMAL /LESS THAN 25 J/KG/ MLCINH REMAINS. DESPITE MODEST WLY MID LEVEL WINDS /30 KTS PER GDA PROFILER/...LOW LEVEL SSELY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS WILL AID IN AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES /- 6 TO -8 DEG C AT 500 MB/ AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 70-74 DEG F RANGE SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS IS LIKELY TO EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THAT DO DEVELOP. ENOUGH UNCERTAINLY STILL EXISTS ON THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE TSTMS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING THAT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT CERTAIN. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38219749 38629816 38819863 38549936 38249942 37649976 36870007 36219984 36249951 36309848 36419744 36719672 37629678 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 19:28:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 14:28:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508172046.j7HKk9F0020952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172045 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172045Z - 172245Z AN ISOLATED LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS A SMALL PART OF EXTREME NERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS CELL. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN INITIATE EITHER AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORM...OR ALONG THE OUTFLOW IN ITS WAKE...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADY-STATE AND LONG-TRACK CELL HAS BEEN MOVING EAST NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ALMOST ALL DAY. EARLIER INDICATIONS WERE THAT THIS STORM WOULD MOVE AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE STORM INFLOW AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING CLEARING AHEAD OF THE STORM AND THIS HAS ALLOWED AIR MASS ACROSS NERN KS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. STORM APPEARS TO BE CYCLING THROUGH INTENSITY CHANGES BUT WAS MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAP VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AS IT NEARS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...LFC BELOW 1KM AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALSO SUGGEST A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39759482 39539487 39379499 39459557 39689622 40059606 40049566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 21:01:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 16:01:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508172219.j7HMJSBD011822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172218 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN SD / S CENTRAL AND SERN SD / W CENTRAL AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 727... VALID 172218Z - 180015Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST NE OF SURFACE LOW/INVOF WARM FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN ND...AND SWD ALONG TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO N CENTRAL/NERN SD -- INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 728. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK...FAVORABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ..GOSS.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46210166 47509858 47819715 47689499 46849442 45219883 44390184 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 01:06:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 20:06:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508180224.j7I2OSec000639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180222 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN ND / CENTRAL AND ERN SD / NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 727...728... VALID 180222Z - 180245Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW 727 AND 728...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES WITHIN WARM SECTOR...WHERE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE CONTINUES. UPPER VORT MAX CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS SD...SO EXPECT SURFACE TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- TO SHIFT EWD WITH TIME. WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY FURTHER E ACROSS FAR ERN SD INTO WRN MN...CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS -- MAINLY S OF THE SD/ND BORDER. ..GOSS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF... 45800009 47069744 47619640 48019612 48229474 46269467 45539672 42869736 42819940 44829962 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 12:44:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 07:44:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508181401.j7IE1afR011954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181400 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181400 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-181600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL WI...NRN IL...SRN ALM...NWRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181400Z - 181600Z POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS SRN WI. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER NRN IL AS ACTIVITY NOW NEAR MS RIVER MOVES E INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND INTENSIFIES. AREA AHEAD OF CONVECTION IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. BOW ECHO...OVER CENTRAL PORTION IL/WI BORDER AS OF 1345Z...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG AND JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT..ACROSS NERN IL...TOWARD SRN LM AND NWRN INDIANA. NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS N OF FRONT AND MERGERS WITH FOREGOING SHOWERS...HOWEVER FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD AS AIR MASS WARMS TO ITS S. LOW 80S SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS COMMONLY MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...EXPECTED IN NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS IL...SHOULD RAISE MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS. EXPECT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO INCREASE OVER NRN IL WITH APCH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/IA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHILE HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE IN SLY/SELY SFC FLOW NEAR FRONT. MODIFIED VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 150-300 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH...SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW MODES AS LIFTED PARCELS BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC BASED. ..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN... 40039128 40979092 42009007 42698930 42928853 42878793 42578699 42318645 42058622 41548631 40378722 39938947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 17:00:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 12:00:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508181817.j7IIHnN3027788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181816 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-181945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SRN LM...SERN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 729... VALID 181816Z - 181945Z MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD APPROXIMATELY 25-30 KT ACROSS NERN IL AND SRN LM. MEANWHILE TSTMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN RFD-VYS...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA...ATOP COLD POOL FROM MCS. LATTER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BECAUSE OF LIMITED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE AND EXTEND SWD INTO MORE OF WARM SECTOR...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 20Z EXPIRATION. IN ANY EVENT...AIR MASS FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH INCREASING HEATING AND NWD LIFT OF WARM FRONT AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL E OF WW. 729. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS ARE EVIDENT ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER NRN INDIANA...INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR REVERSAL OF WEAKENING TRENDS AND REINVIGORATION OF SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS FARTHER E. BACK W...CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY REINFORCED/RELOCATED FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER SWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT/MOTION. ANOTHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION REGARDING THAT LATER SCENARIO...EXTENDING WWD INTO IA...WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AFTER SOME MORE EXAMINATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40288677 40308757 40478855 41118919 41658919 41768880 41668725 41918640 42238577 42428472 41548478 40558567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 17:49:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 12:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508181907.j7IJ7J76022652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181905 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-182100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...ERN WY AND NWRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181905Z - 182100Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EITHER ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NERN/ECENTRAL WY INTO WCENTRAL SD AND/OR MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL WY WHILE INTENSIFYING. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...OVERALL MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINS NNWLY...MODERATE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/ INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NRN BLACK HILLS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT CAPPED EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS /LOWER ELEVATIONS/...WITH OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH PER RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 21Z. WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE /PER RECENT FCST SOUNDINGS AND MBW PROFILER DATA/ ISOLATED SVR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. FARTHER WEST...BASED ON RAWS/ASOS REPORTS...THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NRN NATRONA COUNTY WY ESEWD TO DAWES COUNTY IN THE NEB PANHANDLE. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL HEATING/MINIMAL CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ADDITION...HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE MTNS MAY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER ERN WY INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS IN ERN WY/NWRN NEB PANHANDLE BASED ON CURRENT DEWPT FIELDS INDICATE AROUND 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE SHOULD EXIST BY 21Z. WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44870264 44720476 44590609 44390682 43690699 42680651 42080540 41720423 41900328 42380269 43650181 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 17:52:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 12:52:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508181910.j7IJAKHB024513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181909 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-182045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL IA...NWRN IL...SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI...EXTREME SERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181909Z - 182045Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING GUSTS...TORNADOES AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW OVER SERN MN -- N RST AS OF 19Z -- FCST TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS SWRN WI INTO OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY MORNING MCS. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD AND WRN PORTION OF OLD OUTFLOW POOL WILL FAVORABLY MODIFY. 80S SFC TEMPS AND 70S DEW POINTS -- EVIDENT IN WARM SECTOR ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. THOSE VALUES -- DERIVED FROM OBSERVED REGIONAL VWP DATA...ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY SHORT TERM RUC ANALYSES AND FCSTS...AND SUPPORT SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT PARTICULARLY NEAR WARM FRONT. FARTHER S...ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED VEERING OF SFC FLOW OVER MUCH OF IA SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LIMITING CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...HOWEVER SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SERN MN...0-1 KM SRH APPEARS SMALL BECAUSE OF WEAKER FLOW...HOWEVER VERY LOCALIZED AREA OF JUXTAPOSITION EXISTS BETWEEN FAVORABLE SFC VORTICITY MAX AND LOW LEVEL CAPE FIELD. POSSIBILITY OF NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THAT REGIME SHIFTS EWD ACROSS REMAINDER EXTREME SERN MN AND LSE REGION INTO SWRN WI. ..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 41189032 41939139 42939212 43919236 44279184 44479098 44469000 44378957 44098911 43708862 43128861 42498873 41408896 41098934 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 19:11:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 14:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508182028.j7IKSbvG004445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182027 NDZ000-SDZ000-182230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD...FAR SCENTRAL/SERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182027Z - 182230Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 23Z ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY OF CENTRAL SD NWD INTO FAR SCENTRAL ND. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR SCENTRAL ND/NCENTRAL SD ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH AND OCCLUDED LOW CENTER INTERSECTION. AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MLCINH LESS THAN 25 J/KG. GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY OF CENTRAL SD/SCENTRAL ND BY 23Z. AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA. THUS THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED THROUGH THAT TIME AND THUS WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HRS. AFTER 00Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT GREATER ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL AND THUS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46739951 46530033 45670095 44840096 44000069 43859963 44219883 45569890 46509894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 20:33:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 15:33:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508182150.j7ILojVi016683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182149 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-182345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB...NWRN/NCENTRAL MO AND WCENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182149Z - 182345Z ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY 00Z FROM NERN KS INTO WCENTRAL IL ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MODERATE SHEAR SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE LIKELY. AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WW IN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATED MDT-TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANHATTAN KS ENEWD TO NORTH OF KIRKSVILLE MO. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. MODERATE /30-35KTS/ WLY MID LVL FLOW PER REGIONAL PROFILERS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY COMBINED WITH SELY-ENELY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELL STORMS. DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE BNDY LAYER...HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MODERATE LOW LVL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 PER LATHROP PROFILER/ AND RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND STORM MOTIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL. GIVEN SUSTAINED SFC-850 CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...APPROACHING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MINIMAL CINH REMAINING...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY 23Z. ..CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40259046 40599083 40369483 40299589 40119664 39649708 38989705 38759706 38689676 39029515 39599049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 21:31:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 16:31:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508182248.j7IMmpXV010295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182247 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-182345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 730... VALID 182247Z - 182345Z SEVERE STORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL PERSISTS ACROSS SWRN AND S CENTRAL WI/WITHIN WW 730...AND SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW SE OF LSE...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD/ESEWD TO THE LK MI LAKESHORE N OF MKE. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEAR AND S OF FRONT...WHERE 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL WI ATTM -- WITH STRONGEST STORM NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN SAUK COUNTY TOWARD SWRN COLUMBIA/NRN DANE COUNTIES. THIS STORM IN PARTICULAR HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGE. WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCLS...EXPECT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SERN WI. ..GOSS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX... 44598987 44238865 43848769 42538779 42489127 43359138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 23:11:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 18:11:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190029.j7J0T26a012881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190028 WIZ000-ILZ000-190200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 730... VALID 190028Z - 190200Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD INTO WW 732. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS 19/02Z EXPIRATION. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA SHOW VORT MAX -- AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI ATTM. STRONGEST CONVECTION -- INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELL CROSSING SRN JEFFERSON COUNTY ATTM -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD INTO SERN WI/WW 732. WITH WINDS VEERED BEHIND MAIN CONVECTION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LESS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION / TORNADOES ACROSS WW 730. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN WAKE OF ONGOING STORMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PROVE CORRECT...WW 730 MAY BE CANCELLED BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN... 44658933 44688911 42488905 42528983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 23:43:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 18:43:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190101.j7J11BRL024751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190100 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB...NRN MO/FAR SRN IA AND WCENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 732... VALID 190100Z - 190300Z SEVERAL SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD POSING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ACROSS MAINLY WRN HALF OF WW 732 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP SLIGHTLY NWD OUT OF WW 732 INTO FAR SRN IA...BUT OVERALL NWD EXTENT OF SVR SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY FOCUSED SSWLY INFLOW...THAT ANOTHER WW INTO SRN IA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF WW 732 INTO NCENTRAL/CENTRAL KS...BUT SIMILARLY THE SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA EITHER. 00Z TOPEKA AND LINCOLN IL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG. FOCUSED LIFT ALONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SLN ENEWD TO WCENTRAL IL SHOULD OFFSET INITIAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND SUPPORTING SVR THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT EITHER A BACKBUILDING MCS INTO THE MKC METRO AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT WOULD REACH WCENTRAL IL TOWARDS 05Z. AREA VWP/S SUGGEST THAT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE LEFT SPLITS MAY MOVE INTO FAR SRN IA...OUT OF WW 732. HOWEVER...LIMITED ENOUGH COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SO ANOTHER WW IS NOT EXPECTED. ..CROSBIE.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40079669 38759670 39388943 40688941 40579295 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 01:12:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 20:12:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190229.j7J2ToNP023682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190228 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-190400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI / SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 732... VALID 190228Z - 190400Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SERN WI -- MAINLY OVER SERN PORTIONS OF WW 732. THREAT MAY SHIFT INTO SWRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A SMALL TORNADO WATCH. SUPERCELL NOW OVER RACINE COUNTY REMAINS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SERN WI/WW 732 ATTM. THIS STORM SHOULD MOVE OVER LK MI WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AFTER WHICH THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS WW 732 SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI -- INVOF WARM FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY JUST S OF MKG TO NEAR TOL -- REMAINS VERY MOIST /DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70/. DEGREE OF MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS. WITH LATEST GRR WSR-88D VWP CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR BENEATH MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT...CONDITIONS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. THOUGH VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR GRB SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD/WELL N OF SRN LOWER MI...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT ALONG WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX... 43968907 43968792 43028560 42128476 41748483 41638743 42648852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 01:36:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 20:36:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190254.j7J2s9N9032144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190253 INZ000-ILZ000-190400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL / INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190253Z - 190400Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER IL AND MOVE EWD INTO INDIANA. A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 00Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATES STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS SHOW STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ENOUGH INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS. GIVEN LARGE MOISTURE CONTENT AND POOR LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..JEWELL.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38838667 39418956 39989024 41058975 40848796 40648574 40288508 38978506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 02:58:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 21:58:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190416.j7J4GDfa026492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190415 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS / EXTREME SERN NEB / NRN MO / PARTS OF W CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 731... VALID 190415Z - 190515Z WIDESPREAD STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...THOUGH STORM INTENSITY -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING. NEW WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVOLVING/SURGING SWD ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN AND N CENTRAL MO...NOW WELL S OF STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ONLY SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR TO EXIST OVER NERN MO...ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS BOWING CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS TO POSE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 733 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE...STRONGEST STORMS FURTHER W -- N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN INCH OR SO IN DIAMETER...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ASSUMING SCENARIO CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...NEW WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED UPON THE 19/05Z EXPIRATION OF WW 731. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40079667 40689044 40189077 39559057 39488953 38689664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 04:36:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 23:36:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190554.j7J5s96m022224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190552 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-190715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN IND...SWRN OH AND NWRN/NCNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190552Z - 190715Z THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONG TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS...GLANCING PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. THE LLJ HAS RESPONDED WITH VWP/PROFILERS INDICATING 30-40 KTS OF WSWLY FLOW ARCING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH VLY. RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A BROAD BAND OF TSTMS FROM CNTRL IL INTO SRN IND. PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS EMANATE FROM A RESERVOIR OF MODEST CAPE SITUATED ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND RECENT CNTRL IL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS. PROFILERS/VWP SUGGEST A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GRTLKS TROUGH...FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO BACKBUILD TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS. BUT...POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR COLD POOLS TO ELONGATE ESEWD WITH THE MEAN FLOW. THOUGH THE FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT...SET-UP DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE AXIS FROM CNTRL/SERN IND INTO SWRN OH/NWRN KY THIS MORNING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE RATHER WARM MID-LEVELS/WEAK CLOUD-BEARING VERTICAL SHEAR MAY MITIGATE HAIL PRODUCTION SOMEWHAT. ..RACY.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 40298654 40218345 38218384 38438530 38668659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 04:51:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 23:51:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190609.j7J69J5O025660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190608 MIZ000-190745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 734... VALID 190608Z - 190745Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL LWR MI. TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE WARM FRONT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ARE CLEARLY ROTATING PER GAYLORD RADAR. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NERN LOWER MI/THUMB AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS RATHER COOL AND POTENTIALLY STABLE OVER THESE AREAS...SUGGESTING A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES THAN FARTHER S/W. NONETHELESS...VWP SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURNING VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND IF A TSTMS CAN ROOT TO NEAR THE SURFACE...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF TSTMS INTO NERN LWR MI/THUMB AREA FOR A POTENTIAL SMALL TORNADO WATCH. OTHERWISE...TORNADO WATCH 734 CONTINUES. ..RACY.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42168595 44798656 44808236 43408225 43208417 42128410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 08:08:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 03:08:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190925.j7J9Pv9u013850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190924 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL AND WCNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733... VALID 190924Z - 191030Z SMALL MCS THAT EVOLVED OVER CNTRL IL EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SEWD INTO SRN IND. PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF VWP/PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT THE H9-H85 JET HAS VEERED TO A MORE WLY TRAJECTORY AS THE GRTLKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES FARTHER FROM THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN KY...SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS JUST S/SW OF KCVG. MEANWHILE...TSTMS ACROSS ECNTRL IL AND WCNTRL IND WERE WEAKENING...DUE IN PART TO THE SHIFT IN THETA-E ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS WCNTRL-SRN IND INTO NWRN KY AND EXTREME SWRN OH...IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREATS HAVE DIMINISHED. AS SOON AS THE TSTMS CLEAR THE VALID PORTIONS OF WS733...THE WW WILL CANCELLED EARLY. OTHERWISE...A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..RACY.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT...ILX... 38978795 39718760 40498747 40298674 39638644 39328496 38888392 38528403 38288445 38368560 38688690 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 11:00:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 06:00:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191217.j7JCHTcU031988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191216 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-191315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...NERN OH...WRN PA AND NRN WV PNHDL CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 191216Z - 191315Z 13Z SWODY1 WILL INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK BASED ON TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NY...NERN OH...WRN PA AND THE NRN WV PNHDL. METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING WITH THE 13Z SWODY1 ISSUANCE. ..RACY.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43337840 41867849 40717879 40117947 39938085 40548155 43168107 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 14:39:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 09:39:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191556.j7JFurhZ012913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191555 MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-191800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL KS...SWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 191555Z - 191800Z GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION MAY WARRANT WW WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH INITIAL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. VIS IMAGERY AND 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD/QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MO WWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NWRN KS...CENTERED NEAR I-70...WITH WEAK MESOLOW BETWEEN SLN-CNK. ELEVATED TSTM COMPLEX BUILDING ACROSS NRN KS -- OVER WRN PORTION OF THAT BOUNDARY -- WILL MOVE NEWD AND AFFECT KS/NEB BORDER REGION BETWEEN MCK-CNK THROUGH 18Z. OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC-850 MB FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM SERN SD SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN NEB. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS FCST TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM BOTH REGIONS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME MERGING POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT BEFORE ABOUT 18Z WILL BE OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. THEREAFTER -- AS ANY CONVECTION REMAINING OVER REGION INGESTS MORE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND BECOMES MORE SFC-BASED -- DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 8 DEG C/KM MEAN LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG ATTM. PRECONVECTIVE/PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS AND CENTRAL/SERN NEB WILL BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR SFC BASED TSTMS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING AWAY FROM CLOUDS/PRECIP...70S F DEW POINTS AND 7-8 DEG C MEAN LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES RISING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK FLOW...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEARS OF 40-50 KT ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38379868 39049978 39490029 39930091 40330065 41289897 41729818 41779743 41539658 41029599 40569573 40039573 39079618 38239723 38239830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 16:33:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 11:33:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191753.j7JHr4Ej011285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191749 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN IL...SRN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL/NERN KY...SRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191749Z - 191915Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTMS FROM SERN IL ESEWD TOWARD ERN KY. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE IN LOW LEVELS. COMBINATION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS AND 30-40 KT WNW FLOW ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY TSTMS THAT MAY DEVIATE SEWD TO SWD OFF MEAN WIND VECTOR. ADJUSTED VWP OBSERVATIONS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG...AND ABOUT 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY ERODE CAP...SUPPORTING EITHER NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SFC-BASED TSTMS. DESPITE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH SRN EXTENT TOWARD TN/KY BORDER BY WEAKENING FLOW AND WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...LEADING TO DIMINISHMENT BOTH OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALOFT. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 39168796 39618648 39648572 39748419 39438271 39038235 38348254 37748345 37618453 37668590 38218745 38468808 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 17:16:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 12:16:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191833.j7JIXmBV002675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191832 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191832Z - 192030Z MONITORING FOR INDICATIONS OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AT 1830Z...STRONG TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS SW ONTARIO JUST WEST OF THE HAMILTON/TORONTO CANADA AREAS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/BUILD SWD ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/DEEPEN OVER NE OH/LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME...LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NW OH. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST ALONG EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN PA INTO WRN NY...WHERE MAX PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED. AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 18Z PIT RAOB...WHILE VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED TO SLY. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE ENLARGEMENT OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43367858 43577710 43467705 42787705 42427736 42227761 41857869 40097898 40007916 40078094 40318222 40588238 40838230 41648203 42337976 42827917 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 17:34:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 12:34:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191851.j7JIpd4d011638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191850 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...NWRN MO...SERN NEB...SWRN/S-CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 191850Z - 192045Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SFC-BASED SEVERE TSTMS FROM NERN KS NEWD TOWARD PORTIONS S-CENTRAL IA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON -- SE OF LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP NOW OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AS OF 1830Z...GENERALLY FROM LEAVENWORTH COUNTY WWD TO BETWEEN CNK-RSL. THIS IS INVOF DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER NERN KS...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED AS A RESULT OF EARLIER/DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER. INFLOW-LAYER TRAJECTORIES SHOULD EMANATE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER OVER E-CENTRAL KS THAT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. MODIFIED 18Z TOP/OAX RAOBS INDICATE SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 90S...AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S...COMBINE WITH 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. RUC APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING MLCAPE BECAUSE OF EXCESSIVELY MIXED AND TOO-DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY N OF BOUNDARY. BUT WHEN MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY...ITS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD EVEN LARGER BUOYANCY APCHG 5000 J/KG. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE...PER LATEST NERN KS/SERN NEB VWP/PROFILER DATA. HOWEVER...STRONGER/30-40 KT FLOW ALOFT AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST RISK FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND/OR BOW ECHOES TO FORM...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39169471 39219619 38939812 39089858 39389856 40059728 40669582 41079434 41029326 40459247 39689270 39389323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 18:38:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 13:38:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191955.j7JJtiMt015765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191952 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191952 KSZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191952Z - 192045Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INVOF ENE-WSW ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE MESOLOW INVOF FORD/HODGEMAN COUNTY LINE WITH CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS GBD...SLN AND MHK AREAS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS N OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL. SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE ALONG BOUNDARY...GIVEN INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPES 2000-4000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS RELATED TO 1. MIDLEVEL WINDS 35-45 KT -- PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY AND 2. ENELY/NELY SFC WINDS ALONG AND N OF IT...RESULTING IN ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS WITHIN 15-20 NM S OF BOUNDARY BEND NWWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC FORCING NE OF SFC LOW...AND INDICATE ENHANCED 0-3 KM AGL SHEAR EXTENDS SOMEWHAT SWD INTO STRONGLY HEATED WARM SECTOR. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38249738 37839811 37549921 37379975 37480019 37950026 39340054 39849996 39909789 39739600 38809607  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 19:14:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 14:14:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508192032.j7JKW1dI005070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192030 MNZ000-IAZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN INTO NCNTRL/NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192030Z - 192230Z MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION FROM SRN MN INTO NW/NCNTRL IA. PROVIDED DEVELOPMENT/CONTINUAL DESTABILIZATION...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING...RELATIVELY THICK CLOUD COVER HAS THUS FAR HINDERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN INTO NRN IA AS OF 2030Z. NNE-SSW ORIENTED CELLULAR CU FIELD IS EVIDENT ALONG/JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MN INTO NW IA AT THIS TIME...WHILE PEEKS OF CELLULAR CU ALSO NOTED OVER SCNTRL MN BENEATH CANOPY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS...NEAR WEAK SFC LOW ANALYZED NORTH OF MKT. AS CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING CINH. AMBIENT VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH 40-55 KT MID LEVEL FLOW PER WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER/FSD WSR-88D VAD/18Z OAX RAOB. GIVEN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION/BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN MN INTO NW/CNTRL IA. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING ERN NEB/FAR WCNTRL IA TSTMS MAY ALSO EXPAND NEWD THROUGH NRN IA/SRN MN. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42569377 41829603 42499621 44239487 45379420 45419312 44669277 43909240 43089283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 19:52:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 14:52:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508192110.j7JLA87C026820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192109 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-192315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO/SRN IL/SW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192109Z - 192315Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NE MO/SRN IL INTO SW IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SHOULD STORM COVERAGE PROVE SUFFICIENT. AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS EXTENDING WNW-ESE FROM FAR NE MO/SRN IL INTO SW IN. AN ISOLD STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED EAST OF STL AS OF 21Z. AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION AND MID/UPPER 90S SFC TEMPS/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE/WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39509199 40279184 40349122 39508872 38808605 37918647 38118774 38508987 38849064 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 21:24:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 16:24:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508192242.j7JMg4ST001391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192241 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN KS / NWRN MO / FAR SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736... VALID 192241Z - 200045Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS. LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATES NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL KS...CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION. SUPERCELL NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN ELLSWORTH/NERN RICE COUNTIES TOWARD SALINE/MCPHERSON COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE RIDING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY. AS THIS STORM CONTINUES EWD...THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST. MEANWHILE...SECOND SUPERCELL OVER GEARY/MORRIS COUNTIES ALSO APPEARS TO BE RIDING EWD ALONG BOUNDARY...AND MAY LIKEWISE POSE A TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS WW...A MORE LIMITED THREAT ALSO EXISTS EWD INTO MO -- AND WWD INTO WRN KS WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CONTINUES OVER GREELEY COUNTY. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39249869 39689763 40129443 38619441 37180027 37990026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 21:55:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 16:55:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508192313.j7JNDDBv012485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192312 NYZ000-PAZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/NW PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735... VALID 192312Z - 200045Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 735 CONTINUES FOR WRN NY/NW PA UNTIL 02Z. THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES CONTINUES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A SLIVER OF UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS PRIMARILY INVOF LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE...WITH MODIFIED 18Z BUF RAOB SUGGESTIVE OF 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS FAR WRN NY/FAR NW PA. IN SPITE OF THE MARGINAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 735...AMBIENT FLOW FIELDS NEVERTHELESS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/UPDRAFT ROTATION. IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN 200 MS/S2 -- OWING TO BACKED S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43017946 43497916 43657875 43667758 43637678 43167693 42367747 41707812 41227858 41287936 41378037 41758040 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 23:13:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 18:13:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508200030.j7K0UgtS002929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200029 NYZ000-PAZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / NWRN PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735... VALID 200029Z - 200100Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS WW. WW MAY BE CANCELLED BY 20/01Z. STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS -- AS REVEALED BY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS -- REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NY/WRN PA AWAY FROM THE ERIE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. WITH MAIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS NOW MOVING INTO THIS MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THIS REGION. STRONGEST STORM -- NOW MOVING SWD INTO CLARION/JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN PA -- IS NOW S OF WW...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH TIME AS SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE STORM IS ORIGINATING FROM WITHIN MORE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TEMPERATURES/ ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS...WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43697805 43477740 41787869 41197933 41638008 42287905 43407833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 00:44:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 19:44:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508200202.j7K222fv029953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200201 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-200300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0901 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL INTO ERN KS / PARTS OF W CENTRAL AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736... VALID 200201Z - 200300Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW...THOUGH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- OVER E CENTRAL KS/W CENTRAL MO -- ARE NOW BEING UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS DECREASING. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORM CLUSTERS NOW APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL HAIL...AS WELL AS LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WHERE SOME TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL HAIL...THOUGH THREAT IS LIMITED DUE PRIMARILY TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -4 C/. WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME...NEW WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM UPON THE 20/03Z EXPIRATION OF WW 736. ..GOSS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37970026 38969674 39569532 39899414 38529436 36840030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 15:15:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 10:15:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201632.j7KGWej8022043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201631 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...PORTIONS ERN/SRN INDIANA...NRN KY...EXTREME SERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201631Z - 201800Z TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WIND PRODUCERS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WHERE WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PROSPECTIVE INFLOW AIR OVER INDIANA/OH/NRN KY SOON WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT...POSSIBLY DERECHO CALIBER. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM NERN INDIANA SWWD ROUGHLY ALONG HUF...MVN...CGI LINE...MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 35 KT. SWRN PORTION OF THIS LINE OVER IL BECOMES COLOCATED WITH PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...STILL CHARACTERIZED BY SFC PRESSURE RISES TO ITS W. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE DEEPENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SRN IL PORTION OF THIS BAND...AND ALSO OVER SEGMENT NNE IND. DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN BAND AND MOVE INTO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS RISING INTO LOW 90S F AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S. DESPITE WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS...VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE YIELDS DEEPLY BUOYANT PROFILE WITH VERY WEAK CINH...MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND DCAPE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG. GIVEN MIDLEVEL WINDS UP TO 60 KT -- PER WLC PROFILER -- AND AT LEAST 40 KT ALOFT OVER MUCH OF AREA...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EPISODE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 38028578 37878685 37798790 37898858 38168875 38668794 39338677 39868580 40578514 41608468 41718396 41608289 41658144 40908105 39628154 38848255 38208400 38068532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 16:27:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 11:27:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201744.j7KHiWfS017587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201743 KSZ000-OKZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE/SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NE OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 201743Z - 201945Z HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1.5 IN/HR...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SE/SCNTRL KS...AND PERHAPS INTO EXTREME NE OK. SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS CORRIDOR OF ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JUST S/SE OF WICHITA NEAR WELLINGTON KS...E/NE TO NEAR THE CHANUTE KS VICINITY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENCE OF VERY COLD -60 TO -65 C CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER FAR SE KS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LAMONT OK/VICI OK PROFILERS SUGGEST A PERSISTENCE OF MODEST SWLY WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH MESOSCALE COLD/BUBBLE HIGH ACROSS FAR SCNTRL/SE KS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LIKELY REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS FAR SCNTRL KS AND SUBSEQUENT ESE PROPAGATION. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH INTO MID AFTERNOON AS LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL SWLY TRAJECTORIES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ..GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37569773 37649688 37649571 37639470 37229465 36799649 36819773 37409787 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 17:19:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 12:19:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201836.j7KIaurU003284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201835 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AND FAR NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201835Z - 202030Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLD LARGE HAIL INCREASING ALONG E-W CORRIDOR FROM FAR SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AND FAR NE OK. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE FROM FAR SRN IL/WRN KY WESTWARD INTO FAR NE OK...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUGGEST 2000-2750 J/KG AVAILABLE MLCAPE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...HASKELL OK/CONWAY MO/BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILERS REPRESENTATIVE OF ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW WIND PROFILES THROUGH 6 KM AND AROUND 20 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MILD TEMPS ALOFT...ISOLD LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD SUFFICIENT STORM ORGANIZATION BECOME APPARENT. ..GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35329269 35249434 35849500 36399523 36799335 37259197 37509095 37938824 37078809 36738844 35939027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 17:55:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 12:55:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201912.j7KJCWmi015488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201911 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN INDIANA...NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 737...738... VALID 201911Z - 202045Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT 1845Z FROM CRAWFORD/HARDIN COUNTIES OH SWWD ACROSS SWRN CORNER INDIANA. ALSO...TCU EVIDENT NE OF FWA MAY DELAY CLEARING OF WW OVER NWRN OH...IN EVENT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES EWD. ALSO...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER ERN OH AND PA...REQUIRING WW 738 ISSUANCE. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 18Z ILN RAOB ILLUSTRATES EFFECTS OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT/MOISTURE OFFSETTING WARMTH ALOFT -- WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE DESPITE 500 MB TEMPS ONLY -3 DEG C. MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. ALSO...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAWRENCE BOUNTY PA WWD THROUGH WAYNE COUNTY OH. ALSO EVIDENT IS WELL DEFINED THETAE GRADIENT NEAR LINE FROM HLG-CAK CORRESPONDING TO ERN EDGE OF LOW-MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. THIS FEATURE INTERSECTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR CAK...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY STRONG HEATING TO MAKE CINH NEGLIGIBLE AND BOOST MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 37898461 37868774 41588361 41758168 42018083 42288017 42167991 41767955 41347903 40867879 40337897 39847960 39588037 39548091 39568230 38838287 38348349 37968453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 18:05:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 13:05:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201923.j7KJNJBU019092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201921 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-202115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/FAR SRN KS INTO ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 201921Z - 202115Z POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL ACROSS NRN OK/FAR SRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2.0 IN/HR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OK. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG NEARLY STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR ALVA OK TO BETWEEN PONCA CITY/STILLWATER...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TULSA METRO AREA. MASS CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESULT IN INCREASING AREAL TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS NRN OK/FAR SCNTRL KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AMBIENT AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG MAXIMIZED ACROSS NCNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE LARGELY SUGGESTIVE OF LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION...RELATIVELY GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF NCNTRL/NE OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED RATES TO 1.5-2.O IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...NAMELY ACROSS NRN OK. ..GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37099789 37039738 36619568 35719599 35659755 35629820 35119913 35290013 36210083 37110080 37459905 37289844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 18:50:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 13:50:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508202007.j7KK7OJe001072@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202006 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-202130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KY...SRN OH...WRN/CENTRAL WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202006Z - 202130Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT AND/OR EXPAND EWD FROM WW 737...AND S OF WW 738. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THIS AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS OVER OH/WV BORDER REGION NWD ACROSS PORTIONS EXISTING WWS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...GREATLY WEAKENING CINH AND SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AND MOVE IN FROM W. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL AIR IS RELATIVELY WARM -- 3-4 DEG C BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS -- DEEPLY BUOYANT PROFILE IS EVIDENT WITH MLCAPES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. DEEP ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER MAY RESTRICT AMOUNT/SIZE OF HAIL REACHING SFC. HOWEVER...DAMAGING GUSTS ARE A CONCERN GIVEN SIZE OF BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. EXPECT 0-6 KM SHEAR TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN...SE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH...AND UP TO ABOUT 100 DEG OF VEERING IS EVIDENT IN THAT LAYER BASED ON VWP FROM JKL AND RLX RADARS. VWP/PROFILER TIME SERIES INDICATE SPEED MAX EARLIER OVER NRN INDIANA IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN OH ATTM. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...PRIND KINEMATIC SUPPORT WILL EXIST FOR WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER DISCUSSION AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 37968435 38688301 39298288 39708248 39668108 39398022 38918007 38528028 37848107 37888378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 20:09:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 15:09:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508202127.j7KLRLVe028144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202126 IAZ000-NEZ000-202300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202126Z - 202300Z A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH ANY ISOLD TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MDT TOWERING CU EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IN W-E CORRIDOR ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ALLIANCE NEB TO ORD NEB TO JUST NORTH OF THE OMAHA AREA. AMIDST MOST VIGOROUS CU FIELD...TSTM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER JUST NORTH OF THE OMAHA METRO. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THIS REGION REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE GIVEN WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT/MASS CONVERGENCE...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS DEPICT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF AVAILABLE MLCAPE AMIDST RELATIVELY MINIMAL CINH. FAIRBURY/NELIGH NEB PROFILERS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OMAHA WSR-88D VAD SUGGEST AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. OVERALL ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE OF SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF... 42139571 42049451 41529453 41019633 41099836 41550134 41860160 42140124 42129971 42069756 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 21:57:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 16:57:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508202314.j7KNETWK029024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202310 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KY...SRN AND ERN OH...WRN AND NRN WV...SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738...739... VALID 202310Z - 210045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS ACROSS WW 739. STRONGER STORMS MOVING THROUGH SWRN PA ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT OF WW 738...AND SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS S CNTRL PA. HOWEVER...OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AND THEREFORE ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STRONG STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN PA AT AROUND 25 KT. THE LEADING STORMS ARE NEARING THE ERN PARTS OF WW 738 AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH S CNTRL PA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. KINEMATIC PROFILES AND 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS WW 738. WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR FARTHER S SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS WITHIN WW 739. DAMAGING WIND REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE HAIL THREAT IS LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 01Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 38028428 40488055 41057768 40227671 39567769 39077983 37898231  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 15:09:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 10:09:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508211627.j7LGRERY016437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211626 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-211830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VT...NH...MA...CT...RI...SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NY...SWRN MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211626Z - 211830Z THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH 19Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...IN ENVIRONMENT OF AT LEAST MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR. MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING GUSTS...ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IN 1630Z OUTLOOK AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT -- BETTER DEFINED IN ISODROSOTHERMAL THAN ISOTHERMAL FIELDS GIVEN DIABATIC HEATING -- FROM NERN NY SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN PA...PRECEDED BY SFC TROUGH AND WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE FROM WRN LONG ISLAND NEWD ROUGHLY UP CT RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NRN VT SEWD ACROSS EXTREME SWRN MAINE OFFSHORE MA. FRONTS AND TROUGH EACH SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS REGION. THERMAL AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM DE VALLEY NEWD TOWARD CT VALLEY OF VT/NH BORDER...MEETING A MOIST AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM LONG ISLAND NWD UP CT VALLEY NEAR TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON INSOLATION AND DEW POINTS 70S F YIELDING MLCAPES THAT RANGE FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TO 1500 J/KG AROUND SRN CT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RAOB ANALYSES INDICATE SERN EDGE OF BOTH COOLING AND DRYING ALOFT SHIFTING INTO REGION...AIDING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. NEGATIVE FACTOR IS VEERING SFC FLOW AND RESULTING LIMITATIONS ON CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...CINH SHOULD BE REMOVED THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING ALONE...SO WEAKER CONVERGENCE MAY SERVE TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS MORE DISCRETE. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH STRONG WLY COMPONENT. SPEED SHEAR STRENGTHENS WITH NWD EXTENT...NEARLY INVERSE TO TREND OF BUOYANCY. 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN PREFRONTAL AIR MASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 55 KT OVER NRN PORTIONS NH/VT. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 44667315 44947266 44967212 44757144 44377101 44067071 43747065 43287073 42957087 42367103 41867093 41497140 40977223 40757262 40657332 40757364 41197383 41917424 42647386 43907312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 18:02:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 13:02:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508211920.j7LJKJvW009571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211918 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 211918Z - 212115Z AT LEAST AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NCNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE ATTRIBUTABLE TO MODEST CELL MOTIONS/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/TOWER COINCIDENT WITH WNW-ESE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SW IA. IN NORTHEAST NEB...ONE STRONG STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN ANTELOPE/FAR NRN BOONE COUNTIES OF 19Z. A FEW OTHER STORMS ALSO NOTED AMIDST POST-FRONTAL REGIME JUST EAST OF YANKTON SD...APPARENTLY TIED TO SUBTLE IMPULSE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 3000 J/KG MLCAPE IN PRESENCE OF VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AIRMASS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SW IA. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MODEST/ERRATIC WIND PROFILES SHOULD TEND TO HINDER INDIVIDUAL STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AS REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF STORMS MATERIALIZE. ..GUYER.. 08/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42750064 42649810 42719625 42129477 41369359 40599358 40319512 40559787 40979937 41870076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 16:21:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 11:21:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508221738.j7MHcWFe002814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221737 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221737 SCZ000-GAZ000-221930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SC..ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221737Z - 221930Z A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST BRIEFLY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS SRN SC AND ERN GA. IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS MOVING WWD ACROSS SRN SC EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WHERE EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR EXISTS...THE STRONG INSTABILITY...HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. ..BROYLES.. 08/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... 34478182 33798286 32628350 31168325 31128208 32288061 33118026 34188078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 16:58:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 11:58:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508221816.j7MIGFD1032003@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221815 KSZ000-COZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221815Z - 222015Z A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND ISOLATED. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NE CO. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCNTRL CO AND MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 1000 J/KG AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER SRN CO WILL MOVE EWD TODAY GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM ABOUT 20 KT TO ABOUT 30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BY THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 08/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39250489 40160363 40120268 39770219 38750186 37930237 37480346 37650441 38230533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 03:04:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 22:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508230421.j7N4LZYD003031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230420 KSZ000-OKZ000-230545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740... VALID 230420Z - 230545Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SQUALL LINE MOVING SEWD THROUGH SWRN KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. LATE THIS EVENING... A SQUALL LINE WITH A COLD POOL AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES JUST W OF DODGE CITY CONTINUES SEWD AT AROUND 36 KT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST 20-25 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY ABOVE 2 KM IS ENHANCING THE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND LIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE. THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROFILE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO ROTATE...AND SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUE SEWD ALONG THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SWRN INTO S CNTRL KS AND INTO NWRN OK. ..DIAL.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA... 37079867 36990132 37470113 38439926 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 04:39:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 23:39:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508230556.j7N5uVXG005542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230555 OKZ000-KSZ000-230700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS AND NWRN-NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740... VALID 230555Z - 230700Z LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS SWRN KS APPEARS TO HAVE A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES. TSTMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK...ALONG THE NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SWLY LLJ. TSTM CLUSTER NEAR/N OF KEND WAS BEGINNING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE AS A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED. THERE ARE FAVORABLE SIGNALS THAT SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL KS/NCNTRL-NERN OK THROUGH DAYBREAK. WNWLY FLOW REGIME IN THE MID-LEVELS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AOB 30 KTS. BUT...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS APPEARED TO HEAT CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY SUGGESTING AN AMPLE AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY. AS COLD POOLS ACCUMULATE AND SURGE ESEWD...MODEST STORM RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST STRONG TSTM GENERATION. DESPITE A COUPLE OF NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER /TIME OF DAY AND RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW/...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS NON-ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER WW DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF SCNTRL KS AND NRN/CNTRL OK. ..RACY.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38169900 37409562 35209638 35759804 36439983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 16:58:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 11:58:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508231815.j7NIFFZo000981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231814 GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN...NRN AL...NRN GA...AND NERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231814Z - 231945Z ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES AND SRN TN. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. COVERAGE OF T-STORMS SHOULD PEAK WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAX BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE GULF COAST WWD INTO CENTRAL TX...WITH WLY 15-25KT 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND SOUTH OF DECAYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W FROM FAR NERN MS INTO FAR NRN GA. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT 18Z. MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. CELLS WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 5-10KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 33748584 33938830 34388966 34958939 35228895 35418825 35548753 35458517 35078398 34238313 33848318 33758364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 17:09:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 12:09:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508231827.j7NIRDTo009012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231825 COZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231825Z - 232030Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND NE CO BY MID-AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN CO IN RESPONSE TO AN EWD APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS LIFT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ENCOUNTERING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ALONG WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL CO. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER NE CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...GJT... 40080638 40770616 40930434 40910297 40680220 39650212 39310275 39220442 39390615  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 17:51:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 12:51:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508231908.j7NJ8Rn4005913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231906 AZZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231906Z - 232030Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NE AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING ON THE MOGOLLON RIM AND ARE DEVELOPING IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT. THIS AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN CNTRL AZ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY FROM CNTRL AZ TO NERN AZ. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STORMS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD INTO THE WEAKER INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ... 34240983 34201050 34751140 35661188 36301215 36681199 36821126 36491009 35790947 35050932 34520940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 18:09:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 13:09:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508231926.j7NJQTHv018846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231925 TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AR...FAR WRN TN...AND FAR NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231925Z - 232100Z SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AR WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 10-15KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS E-CENTRAL INTO ERN AR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME DUE TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF STORMS AND EXPECTED ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AT 1910Z...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AR. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX DEVELOPED FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL OK HAS MOVED INTO FAR NWRN AR. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE ORGANIZED A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING FROM 30SW HRO TO 45 NW HOT. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS E-CENTRAL/ERN AR DOWNSTREAM OF MCV. SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL AR TO INTERSECT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTH OF LIT. WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THESE SFC BOUNDARIES AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL AR. NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20KT...MESOSCALE FORCING AND MINIMAL CIN WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE EVENT A LARGER COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP WITH ONGOING STORMS...PRESENTING A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 35919302 36099250 36099161 35999055 35458989 34599013 33669061 33619117 33669204 33819269 34029317 34339332 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 18:47:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 13:47:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508232004.j7NK4P3W014388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232003 MTZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232003Z - 232130Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INTENSIFY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS WRN AND NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF MT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR FROM ERN WA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW MT INTO SRN CANADA. AS A RESULT...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 35 TO 40 KTS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX... 47681009 47531160 47861245 48461264 48921233 48861037 48860875 48120911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 19:34:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 14:34:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508232052.j7NKq4gl019792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232051 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...NERN NM...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232051Z - 232245Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FROM SERN CO SWD ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLES. CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING EWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR AN INCREASING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AT 23/2030Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NERN NM/SERN CO BORDER SWD TO NEAR TCC. AREA VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS UT...AND SEWD EXTENTION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS FOCUSED NORTH OF SURFACE TROUGH/SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ACROSS THE WRN OK PANHANDLE. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES INTO SERN CO...WITH WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AS MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO THIS REGION...NORTH OF DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT FROM 35NE DHT TO 15NE CSM. THE 18Z NAM INDICATES A SSWLY 850MB JET MAX OF 35-40KT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE BY 05Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37390397 37930369 37830073 37150061 34820069 34970377 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 00:07:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 19:07:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508240124.j7O1OVdg023977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240123 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 741... VALID 240123Z - 240330Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD THROUGH NE CO WITHIN THE REMAINING PARTS OF WW 741. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE...AND THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES SPREADING EWD THROUGH E CNTRL AND NE CO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...AND THE STORM MOVING INTO KIT CARSON COUNTY CONTINUES TO SHOW SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SRN END OF THE MCS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION SPREADING INTO SWRN KS MAY RESULT IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FARTHER S ACROSS SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. MOREOVER...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE LFC THROUGH 6 KM...AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS TO STORM ORGANIZATION. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 38500380 40180310 40740245 40480146 38800131 37349970 36640108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 18:06:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 13:06:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508241923.j7OJNNT6006795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241922 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY...SWRN SD...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241922Z - 242115Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM FAR E-CENTRAL/SERN WY EWD INTO SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY MICROBURSTS. SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH A SURFACE LOW IN S-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO JUST WEST OF BIS TO JUST SOUTH OF RAP...AND WWD TO 30N CAP AS OF 19Z. FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS GIVEN WEAK FLOW IN THE COLD SECTOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING WLY SURFACE WINDS ARE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WY. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL WY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL POSITION NEAR THE TRI-BORDER AREA OF WY/NEB/SD. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE IS ABSENT...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. ALSO...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH LIMITED DEEP-LAYER FORCING...EXPECTATION IS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING 45F DURING PEAK HEATING MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER EWD INTO SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43370513 43380430 43730303 43920205 41440160 41090227 41140459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 18:15:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 13:15:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508241932.j7OJWGta012645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241931 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-242130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241931Z - 242130Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR TX PANHANDLE...WRN AND NCNTRL OK INTO FAR SRN KS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN NCNTRL OK ARE IN THE MID 70S F RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT FROM CNTRL OK NWWD INTO SW KS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS OR A BRIEF SPINUP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36979716 36349668 35759695 35009882 35169980 35750019 36669979 37259800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 19:29:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 14:29:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508242046.j7OKkAUa001512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242043 TXZ000-242145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX AND TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242043Z - 242145Z A SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS ACROSS WEST TX. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE NEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NEAR AMA TO NEAR GAGE WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 36120087 34980266 33970298 34090182 35250014 36150067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 21:22:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 16:22:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508242239.j7OMdNPt005922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242238 NDZ000-SDZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242238Z - 250015Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM BOTTINEAU SWD THROUGH EMMONS COUNTIES IN CNTRL ND...AS WELL AS OVER DEWEY COUNTY IN CNTRL SD. BILLOW CLOUDS OBSERVED ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN ND INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER REMAINS STABLE EXCEPT FOR ONLY A NARROW ZONE ALONG FRONT WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING ALONG FRONT OVER SAME GENERAL AREA AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER SWRN SASKATCHEWAN OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THAT WILL EXIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS GIVEN CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD. HERE...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INITIATE. ..MEAD.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48490138 48990122 49039982 47679891 45079907 44040005 43550096 43500182 43970210 44920136 46500117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 22:00:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 17:00:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508242317.j7ONHh24022980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242316 KSZ000-OKZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242316Z - 250045Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF WW 742 THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 2305Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER N-CNTRL OK WITHIN FAR NRN PORTION OF WW 742. WITH EXCEPTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OVER GARFIELD COUNTY...MAJORITY OF STORMS THUS FAR HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY NEWD AT 25-30 KTS. MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ THIS EVENING OVER NRN OK INTO S-CNTRL KS...TO THE S OF WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDING SSEWD FROM HYS TO P28 AND THEN EWD THROUGH WLD AND CNU. CURRENT PROFILER FROM LAMONT OK INDICATES VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 140 M2/S2 AND MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 30 KTS/ TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP INTO S-CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36939913 37939892 38499773 38439674 38089557 37209552 36879618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 00:22:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 19:22:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508250139.j7P1dQ1P022464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250138 OKZ000-TXZ000-250245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0838 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 742... VALID 250138Z - 250245Z ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW AREA. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN HOUR. TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTMS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER WRN AND NRN OK...WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS BEING SMALL MCS IN PROGRESS SE OF ICT. IT APPEARS THAT WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND...WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING TO THE N IN SERN KS. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 36360003 36849916 36819609 34119999 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 01:52:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 20:52:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508250309.j7P39iOj029539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250308 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-250415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS INTO SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250308Z - 250415Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 743 BY 04Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0255Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MCS WITH EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CIRCULATION OVER COFFEY...WOODSON...WILSON...GREENWOOD AND ELK COUNTIES KS MOVING 250/30 KTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60-65 MPH WINDS FROM THE VICINITY OF ICT TO IT/S PRESENT LOCATION. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS MCS IS MOVING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR CNU SEWD TO JUST N OF SGF AND INTO FAR SERN MO. THE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. DIABATIC COOLING WITHIN BOUNDARY-LAYER IS LIKELY RESULTING IN THE STRENGTHENING OF A CAP ACROSS THIS INFLOW AIR MASS. HOWEVER...GIVEN FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL...EXPECT MCS AND SOME INHERENT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP E OF WW 743 BY 04Z. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38009507 38439501 38599438 38309342 37829333 37249357 36989399 36939445 36959481 37039505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 03:01:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 22:01:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508250418.j7P4IgM4026477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250417 OKZ000-KSZ000-250515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 743... VALID 250417Z - 250515Z THROUGH 05Z...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. MEANWHILE TO THE W...POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM FRANKLIN SWD THROUGH NEOSHO COUNTIES IN SERN KS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF 60-65 MPH WINDS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY EWD AT 25-30 KTS. MEANWHILE...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS FROM SW OF SLN TO E OF ICT WHERE ERN EDGE OF 30-35 KT SLY LLJ AXIS IS INTERSECTING REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MOIST INFLOW AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ AND RESULTANT PW/S OF AOA 2 INCHES IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING STORMS SUGGEST A THREAT OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1-2 INCHES. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38939761 38919506 36919512 36939764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 04:43:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 23:43:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508250600.j7P60O6H031129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250559 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250559 MOZ000-KSZ000-250730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 250559Z - 250730Z MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN IMPACTS SHIFTING TOWARD HEAVY RAINFALL. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL ARCING FROM KSZL-KCNU-KHUT. COLD POOLS ARE ELONGATING ENEWD AMIDST A WSWLY MEAN FLOW REGIME. BUT...PROFILERS/VWPS SUGGEST H5 FLOW IS AOB 30 KTS...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL MO/OZARKS. MOREOVER...INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS WRN MO AND AS THE COLD POOL SPLAYS EWD...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BE WEAKER. MEANWHILE...SLY H9-H85 JET HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM WRN OK INTO SRN KS...EMANATING FROM A RESERVOIR OF MODEST CAPE. NOSE OF THIS JET WAS IMPINGING ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS...FORCING ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT GENERATION/BACKBUILDING ACROSS ERN KS. MAGNITUDE OF PW/ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ WILL LIKELY KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE SAME AREAS IN ERN KS/WRN MO THROUGH DAYBREAK. SPECIFICALLY...AREAS FROM JUST EAST OF KICT-KCNU APPEAR TO BE IN THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS /HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS/...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 743 WILL EXPIRE ON TIME /07Z/. ..RACY.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37189742 38219746 38729744 39129514 39259385 39209323 38399284 37809311 37189455 37079526 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 17:04:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 12:04:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508251821.j7PILVnR012432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251820 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-252015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NERN SD...NWRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 251820Z - 252015Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN MN... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ALONG LEADING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NERN SD...INTO NWRN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE BANDED STRUCTURES AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL AID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS ERN SD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING FURTHER ACTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DARROW.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45669917 47669653 48139362 47139421 45439719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 17:12:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 12:12:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508251829.j7PIT58U018263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251827 FLZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251827Z - 252030Z THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF T.S. KATRINA ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR TORNADO THREAT. TORNADO POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SERN FL CONTINUES A WWD MOTION AT 5KT PER LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE ORGANIZED CURVED SPIRAL BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED CELLULAR ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM COASTAL INDIAN RIVER COUNTY EWD AND ESEWD OVER THE OCEAN NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. SOME SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONFLUENCE AREA...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND NEARBY SPIRAL BAND...THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH INDICATION OF ROTATION WITH EXISTING CELLS TO THIS POINT EAST OF THE E-CENTRAL FL COAST. MLB VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES MINIMAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR. BASED ON A CELL MOTION OF 75/30KT...SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 40-50 M2/S2 IN THE 0-1KM AND 0-3KM LAYERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 30KT 1-3KM ELY FLOW HAS OCCURRED SINCE 15Z. SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR/SRH PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF TORNADOES AND POSSIBLE WW. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CONTINGENT ON OVERALL EVOLUTION/INTENSITY CHANGE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28148181 28378104 28288065 27158012 26468008 26298024 26198069 26168117 26218166 26498217 26948220 27768212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 17:47:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 12:47:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508251904.j7PJ4GXl010329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251903 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251903Z - 252030Z ...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY/NRN CO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON INTERACT WITH DOWNSTREAM ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...ENHANCING UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 42460441 43019999 41320115 40590422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 18:57:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 13:57:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252014.j7PKEBAq027070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252012 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK AND THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...AND THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252012Z - 252215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL KS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. AT 20Z...SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION EXTENDS NNW-SSE FROM 45S HLC TO 15W P28 AND THEN BENDS EWD ACROSS FAR NERN OK. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY CAPPED ON THE COOL /NORTHEAST/ SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS HAS HEATED STRONGLY ACROSS SWRN KS SWD ACROSS NWRN OK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...SWLY SFC WINDS...AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ARE PRESENT JUST WEST AND SW OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW SW-NE ORIENTED LINES OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR NWRN OK. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER FORCING IS WEAK...MOIST MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SUBTLE BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS/CONVERGENCE ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. IF STORMS DO FORM...CELLS WOULD TRACK GENERALLY NEWD AT 20-25KT TOWARD STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL KS...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES OF 40KTS PRESENT AT THE HAVILAND KS PROFILER. MAIN THREAT WEST OF THE OUTFLOW WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH SRH/LOW-LEVEL VEERING ENHANCED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS OR STORMS CROSSING THE BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36169962 36130043 36340100 36970104 37680059 38020010 38459880 37889826 36849757 36409866 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 19:15:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 14:15:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252032.j7PKWAqt007952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252031 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-252130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252031Z - 252130Z ...A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR ERN SD AND A SMALL PART OF NRN NEB... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS APPARENTLY SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WIND SHIFT IN SERN SD. WITH A NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 MLCAPE HAS DEVELOPED WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS EVOLVING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43149966 45849779 45479651 42589814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 19:53:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 14:53:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252110.j7PLADLx004702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252109 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL...WRN TN...AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252109Z - 252315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SERN MO EWD INTO SRN IL/WRN KY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN AR INTO WRN TN. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX GENERATED FROM MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO W-CENTRAL IL AT 21Z. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED STRONGLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...NEAR THE JUNCTION OF THE MS/OH RIVERS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90S WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS BASED ON THE RUC INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN. NARROW ZONE OF 30-40KT SFC-6KM SHEAR EXISTS SOUTH OF MCV CENTER...ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN IL WHERE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT EXISTS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD YIELD A CORRIDOR OF LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER CELLS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN AR/WRN TN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER AND ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38099094 38389025 38418798 36848831 35968875 35548927 35419038 35579205 35889243 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 21:00:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 16:00:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252217.j7PMHmNg015475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252216 FLZ000-260045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 252216Z - 260045Z POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP WWD ACROSS THE LOWER ERN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE KATRINA. AS OF 2206Z...MIA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER 20 NE OF MIA WITH A VERY SLOW WWD MOVEMENT. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT...WHEN COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PW/S AOA 2.50-2.60 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. INDEED...MIA 1-HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION ALGORITHM INDICATES 1.0-1.5 INCHES S OF CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 5 SSW MIA TO 30 ESE MIA...INCREASING TO 2-3 INCHES E OF CENTER APPROXIMATELY 40 ENE MIA. THUS...EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE AS KATRINA MOVES FURTHER ONSHORE...ALLOWING MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS OBSERVED E OF CIRCULATION CENTER TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL... 26278101 26408074 26378008 26027999 25568005 25358028 25348062 25428089 25658101 25978114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 21:59:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 16:59:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252316.j7PNGqqP014185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252314 MNZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252314Z - 260015Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST N OF WW 745 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED E OF THE RED RIVER OVER WILKIN COUNTY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS STORM OVER WRN OTTER TAIL COUNTY MOVING 260/25 KTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CURRENT WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER AND RUC PROXIMITY HODOGRAPHS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL WITH RESULTANT 0-3 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30-35 KTS. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT THAT THIS SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EWD TOWARD BRD. RELATIVELY WEAKNESS IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE THAT STORM SHOULD REMAIN HIGH-PRECIPITATION IN CHARACTER WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 46629649 46839605 46849502 46609411 46209412 45949483 46069647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 23:21:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 18:21:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508260038.j7Q0crnK020605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260037 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-260200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 744... VALID 260037Z - 260200Z THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 744 AREA. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY PRIOR TO 02Z. AS OF 0020Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS FROM KEITH COUNTY NEB SWWD TO LINCOLN COUNTY CO MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 20-25 KTS. HOWEVER...CNTRL/SRN PORTION OF LINE OVER WASHINGTON...YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES CO HAS RECENTLY ACCELERATED SEWD AT AROUND 30 KTS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SNY...AKO AND LIC SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...INDICATIVE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD POOL. IN CONTRAST...GLD SURFACE OBSERVATION SHOWS TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 90S AND A 35 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE LINE EWD/SEWD VIA SYSTEM PROPAGATION. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS COUPLED WITH ORGANIZING COLD POOL SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP E OF WW 744 WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38900347 39800318 40980263 41620187 41690093 41379991 40709967 39900001 39160050 38780096 38500161 38450261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 23:50:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 18:50:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508260107.j7Q17Oda002225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260106 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-260200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB/W-CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 745... VALID 260106Z - 260200Z THROUGH 04Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0056Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER FAR SERN ND INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN MN LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMUM ROTATING NEWD AROUND SASKATCHEWAN UPPER LOW. FARTHER TO THE SW...AN ADDITIONAL SMALLER TSTM COMPLEX /PERIODICALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ WAS NOTED OVER GREGORY COUNTY SD AND BOYD AND KEYA PAHA COUNTIES IN NEB MOVING GENERALLY SWD AT 10 KTS. BETWEEN THESE STORM CLUSTERS...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH OVER THE PAST HOUR. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS NEB PORTION OF WW AHEAD OF WEAKER SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HERE...PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /REF. 00Z LBF SOUNDING/ COUPLED WITH AN INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN N-CNTRL NEB STORMS...AS WELL AS LEAD TO FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS ACROSS WW AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 45989802 45949512 42079809 42080074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 26 02:14:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 21:14:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508260331.j7Q3Vp1S007438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260330 SDZ000-260500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260330Z - 260500Z A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SD OVERNIGHT. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER NERN WY AND WRN SD HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER JACKSON...BENNETT AND MELLETTE COUNTIES IN SWRN/S-CNTRL SD. INSPECTION OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED PARCELS /I.E. MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30-40 KTS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. DESPITE MODESTLY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAN DEVELOP. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43500101 44380013 44999857 44919736 44439702 43829720 43379767 43119814 43019895 43050076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 26 03:13:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 22:13:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508260431.j7Q4V8NY031965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260428 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-260600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746... VALID 260428Z - 260600Z THROUGH 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 746. AS OF 0415Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR MCS EXTENDING FROM DAWSON COUNTY NEB SWD INTO SHERIDAN AND GOVE COUNTIES IN NWRN KS WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION OF 25-30 KTS. A SMALLER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS ALSO OBSERVED OVER BROWN...ROCK AND LOUP COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL NEB...ALSO MOVING EWD AT 25-30 KTS. WHILE PLAN VIEW RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWS A STRONG CAP DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT: 1) STORMS ARE EITHER BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER...OR 2) SYSTEM COLD POOL IS MAINTAINING SURFACE-BASED STORMS...HOWEVER PARCEL BUOYANCY IS BEING DILUTED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WRN SD AND WRN NEB WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS EWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW AREA AND POINTS E OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERITY OF THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD... 38790185 43010078 42829785 38719906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F5dk012295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262310 OKZ000-TXZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WCNTRL/NCNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262310Z - 270015Z THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WCNTRL AND PERHAPS NCNTRL OK. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CURRENTLY ONGOING AT 23Z IN WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NORTH OF I-40 FROM NE OF AMARILLO IN HUTCHINSON AND CARSON COUNTIES OF TX...INTO ROGER MILLS/DEWEY COUNTIES OF OK. THESE STORMS ONGOING INVOF SFC TROUGH...WHERE AIRMASS BECAME DEEPLY MIXED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO NCNTRL OK TOWARD I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY WEAK CINH EXISTS. WITH MODEST AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS/ AND ONGOING INTENSITY OF TSTMS LARGELY TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 36709713 36419707 35999716 35479872 35120018 35240151 35620143 35820110 35979983 36249844  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F4od012291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261515 ILZ000-MOZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261515Z - 261745Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SWRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BY NOON. MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST ACROSS NCNTRL MO LATE THIS MORNING WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM JEF TO SGF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE LOW/WAVE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER ECNTRL MO AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SERN MO. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF STRONG WARM SECTOR HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INVOF LOW AND WARM FRONT. A BELT OF DIFFLUENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35KT WILL REMAIN SITUATED ATOP RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN AN HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 36509403 36819437 37959311 38099299 39079237 39569178 39499120 38758953 37988887 37468897 36718952 36569126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F9Fr012337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262233 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR INTO WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262233Z - 262330Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN AR AND WRN TN. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 2222Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM PEMISCOT AND LAKE COUNTIES IN FAR NERN AR TO GIBSON COUNTY IN WRN TN. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT NERN AR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG TRAILING EDGE OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER WRN KY/SERN IL AND SWRN IND. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WRN TN REMAINS HOT AND MOIST WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFOREMENTIONED STORMS TO CONTINUE SEWD WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. EWD EXTENT OF THREAT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST E OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ONGOING MCS OVER FAR WRN KY SEWD INTO SRN MIDDLE TN. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36589057 36688992 36578848 35848757 35248751 35098775 35038875 35068974 35259019 35839066 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FA9A012340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261918 OKZ000-KSZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261918Z - 262145Z PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND NRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND LARGE MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN MO. A WEAK WAKE LOW HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT MESOANALYSES OVER SERN KS... WITH DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS WAKE LOW ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM NERN KS SWWD TO NWRN OK WITH A WEAK THERMAL LOW/TROUGH FORMING NEAR THE FRONT ON THE KS/OK BORDER. AIR MASS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THESE SFC FEATURES WAS BECOMING VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CU/TCU TO START FORMING FROM EMP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW. WHILE REGION APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEB. PROFILER AND VWP WINDS WERE INDICATING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR CELLS TRACKING PREFERENTIALLY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW. EXPECT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37319795 38579633 38379506 37959467 37239466 36939467 36819524 36509620 36129854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F8hN012312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261801 ARZ000-OKZ000-262030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261801Z - 262030Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF AR WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOT AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATING MLCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SOUTH FROM MO. STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AND LITTLE INHIBITION...NUMEROUS PULSE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS TIME UNLESS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36459029 34439146 33439385 34539462 35419441 36439414  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FEmX012372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270150 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0850 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SERN K AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 748... VALID 270150Z - 270315Z THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0138Z...TULSA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A W-E ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES MOVING 330/25-30 KTS. IMMEDIATE AIR MASS S OF ONGOING STORMS REMAINS QUITE MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT HAS SURGED AHEAD OF STORMS BY 20 MILES...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL OVERWHELMING THE WEAK AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE S OF WW 748...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOCALIZED. FARTHER TO THE E...STORMS NW OF SGF ARE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ATTM. INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SOME THREAT OF STORM ORGANIZATION STILL EXISTS ACROSS ERN/SERN PORTION OF WW AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37159680 37279523 37809425 37669307 36319305 36629676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F7QN012300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270150 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0850 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SERN K AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 748... VALID 270150Z - 270315Z THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0138Z...TULSA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A W-E ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES MOVING 330/25-30 KTS. IMMEDIATE AIR MASS S OF ONGOING STORMS REMAINS QUITE MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT HAS SURGED AHEAD OF STORMS BY 20 MILES...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL OVERWHELMING THE WEAK AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE S OF WW 748...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOCALIZED. FARTHER TO THE E...STORMS NW OF SGF ARE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ATTM. INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SOME THREAT OF STORM ORGANIZATION STILL EXISTS ACROSS ERN/SERN PORTION OF WW AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37159680 37279523 37809425 37669307 36319305 36629676  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FDH3012369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261515 ILZ000-MOZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261515Z - 261745Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SWRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BY NOON. MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST ACROSS NCNTRL MO LATE THIS MORNING WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM JEF TO SGF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE LOW/WAVE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER ECNTRL MO AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SERN MO. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF STRONG WARM SECTOR HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INVOF LOW AND WARM FRONT. A BELT OF DIFFLUENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35KT WILL REMAIN SITUATED ATOP RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN AN HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 36509403 36819437 37959311 38099299 39079237 39569178 39499120 38758953 37988887 37468897 36718952 36569126  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FIMR012418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272241 TXZ000-NMZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272241Z - 280015Z LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN NM INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK REGION OF NW TX. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME INVOF EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ECNTRL NM SEWD INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA AND AREAS NORTH OF ABILENE TX. EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ECNTRL/SE NM INTO NW TX IS RATHER UNSTABLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SWD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AMIDST WELL MIXED/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION...ENHANCING STORM LONGEVITY AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 08/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35240308 34860258 34110147 33220076 32809939 32209935 32009942 32050259 32590448 33340474 34660443 35490428 35610345  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FKtF012487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261941 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...SRN IL...WRN KS...SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747... VALID 261941Z - 262045Z ARCING SQUALL LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST HOUR AND CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH SEVERE TSTM WATCH 747 AT ABOUT 35KT. ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO 35-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...AND AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING INTO MARION AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND ANOTHER INTO FRANKLIN AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...BOTH IN SCNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL ALSO MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EITHER AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE..OR NEAR THE TRAILING PART OF THE LINE. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36548908 36689182 37839087 38838974 39188966 38978703 36388719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FMSG012513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262056 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WCNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262056Z - 262200Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH RIVER VLY WITHIN AN HOUR. BOWING SQUALL LINE WILL CROSS THE WABASH RIVER AND MOVE INTO THE LWR OH RIVER VLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 35KT WITH A NUMBER OF LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS BEING REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IL AND SERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. LINE APPEARS TO BE TAPPING STRONGEST INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP COLD POOL MAY COMPENSATE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. IF STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 39098750 39168667 39168577 38848553 38488548 37938545 37338560 37068588 36968621 37008650 37048677 37188710 37668701 38128700 38498702 38538766  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FGAY012405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262310 OKZ000-TXZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WCNTRL/NCNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262310Z - 270015Z THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WCNTRL AND PERHAPS NCNTRL OK. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CURRENTLY ONGOING AT 23Z IN WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NORTH OF I-40 FROM NE OF AMARILLO IN HUTCHINSON AND CARSON COUNTIES OF TX...INTO ROGER MILLS/DEWEY COUNTIES OF OK. THESE STORMS ONGOING INVOF SFC TROUGH...WHERE AIRMASS BECAME DEEPLY MIXED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO NCNTRL OK TOWARD I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY WEAK CINH EXISTS. WITH MODEST AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS/ AND ONGOING INTENSITY OF TSTMS LARGELY TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 36709713 36419707 35999716 35479872 35120018 35240151 35620143 35820110 35979983 36249844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FIDK012411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262056 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WCNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262056Z - 262200Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH RIVER VLY WITHIN AN HOUR. BOWING SQUALL LINE WILL CROSS THE WABASH RIVER AND MOVE INTO THE LWR OH RIVER VLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 35KT WITH A NUMBER OF LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS BEING REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IL AND SERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. LINE APPEARS TO BE TAPPING STRONGEST INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP COLD POOL MAY COMPENSATE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. IF STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 39098750 39168667 39168577 38848553 38488548 37938545 37338560 37068588 36968621 37008650 37048677 37188710 37668701 38128700 38498702 38538766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FNYn012520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262233 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR INTO WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262233Z - 262330Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN AR AND WRN TN. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 2222Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM PEMISCOT AND LAKE COUNTIES IN FAR NERN AR TO GIBSON COUNTY IN WRN TN. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT NERN AR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG TRAILING EDGE OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER WRN KY/SERN IL AND SWRN IND. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WRN TN REMAINS HOT AND MOIST WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFOREMENTIONED STORMS TO CONTINUE SEWD WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. EWD EXTENT OF THREAT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST E OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ONGOING MCS OVER FAR WRN KY SEWD INTO SRN MIDDLE TN. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36589057 36688992 36578848 35848757 35248751 35098775 35038875 35068974 35259019 35839066  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FB56012343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271806 OKZ000-TXZ000-272030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271806Z - 272030Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF N TX. RANDOM AND OVERALL DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH. A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WERE OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF THE DFW METRO AREA AND NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST LOCAL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER ATTM AND THIS OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SWD TOWARD NWRN SECTIONS OF THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION APPEARS TO BE SITUATED BETWEEN MWL AND FTW AND THE OUTFLOW SPREADING SOUTH FROM THE RED RIVER MAY ACT TO ENHANCE MESOSCALE LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE HOT...UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ACROSS THE REGION MAY COME FROM A WEAK MCV MOVING EAST ACROSS NWRN TX. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW IS WEAK AND WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY PULSE OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 32499677 32309753 32409807 32739828 32969836 33419835 33639812 33879802 33919696 33959659 33279623  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FQD8012598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261941 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...SRN IL...WRN KS...SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747... VALID 261941Z - 262045Z ARCING SQUALL LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST HOUR AND CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH SEVERE TSTM WATCH 747 AT ABOUT 35KT. ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO 35-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...AND AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING INTO MARION AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND ANOTHER INTO FRANKLIN AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...BOTH IN SCNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL ALSO MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EITHER AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE..OR NEAR THE TRAILING PART OF THE LINE. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36548908 36689182 37839087 38838974 39188966 38978703 36388719  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FF7H012382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261918 OKZ000-KSZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261918Z - 262145Z PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND NRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND LARGE MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN MO. A WEAK WAKE LOW HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT MESOANALYSES OVER SERN KS... WITH DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS WAKE LOW ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM NERN KS SWWD TO NWRN OK WITH A WEAK THERMAL LOW/TROUGH FORMING NEAR THE FRONT ON THE KS/OK BORDER. AIR MASS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THESE SFC FEATURES WAS BECOMING VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CU/TCU TO START FORMING FROM EMP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW. WHILE REGION APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEB. PROFILER AND VWP WINDS WERE INDICATING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR CELLS TRACKING PREFERENTIALLY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW. EXPECT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37319795 38579633 38379506 37959467 37239466 36939467 36819524 36509620 36129854  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FJN4012477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261801 ARZ000-OKZ000-262030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261801Z - 262030Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF AR WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOT AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATING MLCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SOUTH FROM MO. STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AND LITTLE INHIBITION...NUMEROUS PULSE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS TIME UNLESS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36459029 34439146 33439385 34539462 35419441 36439414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 02:18:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 21:18:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280336.j7S3aJHd017984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280304 KSZ000-NEZ000-280400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN NEB...NRN/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 749... VALID 280304Z - 280400Z REMAINDER WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 4Z. MULTICELL CLUSTER INVOF GRI SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS ITS OUTFLOW SURGES FARTHER S-SW FROM STRONGEST REFLECTIVITY CORES. ACTIVITY OVER KS/NEB BORDER S MCK HAS YIELDED REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCH DIAMETER DURING PAST HOUR. ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTER JUST E OF CO BORDER...S GLD...MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS WELL. ISOLATED/INTERMITTENT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS WITH THESE CLUSTERS...PRIMARILY IN FORM OF HAIL. EXPECT CONTINUED COOLING AND DEEPENING OF STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER -- BOTH FROM OUTFLOWS AND FROM DIABATIC HEAT LOSS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER OUTFLOW CURRENTS...AND SMALLER POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO FORCE SFC BASED PARCELS TO LFC. ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD... 39810089 40389979 41099810 41209766 40969732 40419722 39989733 39919875 39889952 38969991 38160026 37750065 38180115 38360139 38750173 39080195  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 15:32:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 10:32:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508281649.j7SGnwJK023393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281649 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281649Z - 281845Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER ERN NEB AND PERHAPS NERN KS IN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND EXTREME NERN KS. MINOR SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN ARC OF MODEST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO MID MS RIVER VLY WILL LIKELY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VLY TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG STALLED SFC BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO NWWD ACROSS ERN NEB. A COUPLE OF ELAVTED STORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT SFC-BASED ACTVITY TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILZE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 25-30KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS CAPABALE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND SFC-BASED ACTVITY COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING RESULTS IN LARGER SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39849648 40189911 42530105 42919925 42739708 41579638 39899558 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 15:34:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 10:34:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508281652.j7SGqVmi024128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281650 COR NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281650Z - 281845Z CORRECTED FOR SPELLING A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER ERN NEB AND PERHAPS NERN KS IN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND EXTREME NERN KS. MINOR SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN ARC OF MODEST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO MID MS RIVER VLY WILL LIKELY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VLY TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG STALLED SFC BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO NWWD ACROSS ERN NEB. A COUPLE OF ELEVATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT SFC-BASED ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 25-30KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND SFC-BASED ACTIVITY COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING RESULTS IN LARGER SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39849648 40189911 42530105 42919925 42739708 41579638 39899558  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 16:39:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 11:39:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508281757.j7SHv7So016159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281756 TXZ000-NMZ000-282000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281756Z - 282000Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS OVER THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST DUE TO COOL ADVECTION WITH DISTINCT VORTICITY LOBE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE RIGHT OR LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS. ..JEWELL.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32060545 32970563 33840614 34560638 34890603 35040540 34910462 34390348 33880328 32300327 31570341 31130375 31480481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 18:27:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 13:27:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508281945.j7SJj66N030040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281942 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281942Z - 282145Z A NUMBER OF WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PARTS OF KS AND NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. IF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DIFFLUENT AND INCREASING NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS SPREADING SEWD ATOP INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM WCNTRL KS TO NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ILL-FORMED SURFACE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED PULSE OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY POSE ONLY A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT BEFORE COLLAPSING. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF IT APPEARS THAT STORM CLUSTER MERGES BEGIN TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER A LARGER REGION. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 37889657 37439868 37419949 38070004 39559768 40189427 40479175 39729172 39139383 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 19:05:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 14:05:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282023.j7SKNEqV014361@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282021 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750... VALID 282021Z - 282145Z A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN IA AND NWRN MO SHORTLY. INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NEB HAS ORGANIZED INTO A SMALL BOWING COMPLEX THAT WAS MOVING EAST AT 25KT. THIS COMPLEX IS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HEAT UP AND SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS SWRN IA AND PARTS OF NWRN MO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...LBF... 40079657 40049814 41709942 41749711 41599541 41319421 40009401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 19:46:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 14:46:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282104.j7SL40sa030219@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282103 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-282200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282103Z - 282200Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SRN MS AND AL...AS WELL AS A SMALL PORTION OF THE WRN FL PNHDL. OUTER FEEDER BAND CONVECTION WAS INCREASING WELL AHEAD OF HURRICANE KATRINA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WERE NOW BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF MINI-SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN BANDS. 0-1KM SRH...NOW IN EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2...WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS KATRINA GETS CLOSER TO LANDFALL. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29038918 29289002 30129043 30589031 30859011 30978985 31148907 31238837 31238796 31168741 31038693 30818663 30538643 30248660 29868856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 20:39:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 15:39:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282157.j7SLvTPX019980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282156 TXZ000-NMZ000-282330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751... VALID 282156Z - 282330Z 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2 MB OVER FAR SERN NM INTO SWRN TX...WHERE STRONG HEATING IS TAKING PLACE. MEANWHILE...STORMS OVER SERN NM...SOME SEVERE...CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL SLY DIRECTION AND INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW. SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF WW INTO FAR W TX BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. FARTHER N...THREAT IS DIMINISHING OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW DUE TO COOL OUTFLOW AND SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA DUE TO INFILTRATION OF MORE STABLE AIR. ..JEWELL.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 34410405 29880267 29060317 29790446 30630483 32070597 33460634 34460650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 20:53:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 15:53:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282211.j7SMBXcL025696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282209 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-282345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750... VALID 282209Z - 282345Z CENTRAL/ERN PORTION OF ORIGINAL WW MAY BE CLEARED AS INCREASINGLY DEEP/STABLE OUTFLOW POOL SPREADS ACROSS AREA. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER S ASTRIDE MO VALLEY...INTO NWRN MO...POSSIBLY EXTENDING WWD NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN NEB/N-CENTRAL KS. MULTICELLULAR MCS OVER SERN NEB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD DOWN MO VALLEY AND ADJACENT SECTIONS IA/MO/KS INTO AIR MASS THAT -- FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS -- WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE BUOYANCY...WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS...7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND REMAINING DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. AFTER ABOUT 03Z...INFLOW LAYER REGION SHOULD DECOUPLE OFF SURFACE WITH OPTIMAL INSTABILITY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN SMALL BEFORE SUNSET BECAUSE OF WEAK SPEEDS...HOWEVER STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT AND 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FARTHER W ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE SWWD ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 41429949 40899857 40669800 40669727 40919606 41579536 41249449 40569360 39939328 39489361 39039455 38979516 39099618 39569765 40219932 40580047 40930051 41449997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 22:15:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 17:15:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282333.j7SNXXNf022042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282332 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752... VALID 282332Z - 290100Z TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 2Z OVER SANTA ROSA/ESCAMBIA COUNTIES FL...COASTAL COUNTIES OF AL/MS...WWD ACROSS I-10/I-12 CORRIDOR AROUND BOTH SIDES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NWD TO E-W SEGMENT OF LA/MS BORDER. PROMINENT SPIRAL BAND -- CONTAINING DISCRETE CELLS WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS -- WAS EVIDENT AT 2330Z FROM ABOUT 25 S PNS WNWWD TO JUST OFFSHORE DAUPHIN ISLAND THEN WWD TOWARD LAKE BORGNE. EXPECT THIS BAND TO SHIFT NNWWD IN TUNE WITH AMBIENT HURRICANE TRANSLATION...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE WNWWD. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEADILY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ALREADY 200-300 J/KG OVER MOB REGION BASED ON VWP HODOGRAPHS AND OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS. SRH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WWD ACROSS SERN LA AND EWD ACROSS FL PANHANDLE...WITH MAX LOCATED IN PERIPHERAL NERN QUADRANT...SHIFTING SLOWLY INLAND OVER SWRN AL AND SRN MS. REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FORECASTS AND WARNING/WATCH INFO REGARDING CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29508636 28959081 31439079 31958636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 23:38:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 18:38:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508290055.j7T0trwH020551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290054 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-290200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753... VALID 290054Z - 290200Z WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 4Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE AND ACTIVITY MOVES SE FROM WW. MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LINGER TO ITS E AND SE. PER COORD/W TOPEKA...NERN KS COUNTIES W OF LAWRENCE HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM WW BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL/SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT LIES JUST BEHIND SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS AREA FROM MKC-EMP -- WITH MOST NEW NERN KS/NWRN MO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO SHIFT QUICKLY BEHIND BOUNDARY. FARTHER NE...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE MULTICELL COMPLEX -- NOW EVIDENT FROM DECATUR COUNTY IA SWWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-35 TO NRN FRINGES OF KC METRO AREA -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW AREA WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ABOVE SFC FOR ABOUT 50-60 NM BEFORE REACHING RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS N-CENTRAL MO. EXPECT WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 3Z AS THIS OCCURS...AND AS INFLOW LAYER BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM SFC BECAUSE OF DIABATIC COOLING. INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOWS FROM N-CENTRAL MO AND NERN KS COMPLEXES SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD INVOF MO/KS BORDER S OF MKC...ASSOCIATED LIFT CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS. PRIND SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR ADDITIONAL WW BECAUSE OF COOLING SFC LAYER AND WEAK DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39219702 39099645 39149576 39339522 39549486 40079429 40469413 40709391 40599344 40329311 40009303 39779337 39419360 39069358 38819354 38379362 38029394 37829438 37829482 38089549 38689637 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 01:59:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 20:59:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508290317.j7T3HJUA013024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290316 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752... VALID 290316Z - 290515Z AS OF 3Z...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OCCASIONALLY HAVE BEEN INDICATED WITHIN OUTER BAND...NOW SHIFTING NWD ACROSS WRN FL PANHANDLE...MOB BAY REGION...AND SERN MS. SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS...SOME ROTATING...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NWWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN OUTER BAND AND INNER CORE REGION...AN AREA NOW EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE WRN FL PANHANDLE WNWWD ACROSS MS SOUND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO POSE SECOND ROUND OF TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS COASTAL MS/AL THROUGH 5Z. NEXT...INNER BAND -- EVIDENT AT 3Z FROM ST BERNARD PARISH ACROSS SRN CHANDELEUR ISLANDS THEN ESEWD OVER GULF...ALSO WILL PIVOT NWD. PROMINENT SUPERCELL OVER ST BERNARD PARISH SHOULD MOVE WWD ACROSS NRN PLAQUEMINES/JEFFERSON/ST BERNARD PARISHES BEFORE WEAKENING. ANY OTHER INNER-BAND SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WNWWD ACROSS AREAS FROM MSY-BIX AS HURRICANE CONTINUES ITS LANDWARD TRACK. DURING AND AFTER INNER BAND PASSAGE...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS EYEWALL CORE APCHS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR VALUES WILL DECREASE BECAUSE OF MORE HOMOGENEOUS SPEED/DIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH HEIGHT. TORNADOES STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION JUST OUTSIDE EYEWALL BUT NOT AS MUCH SO AS WITH BANDS FARTHER N THROUGH NE OF CENTER. SOME OF THE FAR SWRN PARISHES OF WW -- I.E. TERREBONNE/ASSUMPTION/LAFOURCHE -- MAY BE REMOVED FROM TORNADO WW DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ALONG AND E OF NHC FORECAST TRACK BYPASS THEM TO THE E. ALTHOUGH EYEWALLS THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE TORNADOES AS THEY ARE DEFINED...VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND GUSTS OF TORNADIC STRENGTH ARE LIKELY. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC FOR LATEST INTENSITY/TRACK INFORMATION...AS WELL AS WATCHES/WARNINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29508636 28959081 31439079 31958636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 05:09:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 00:09:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508290627.j7T6RaPR014939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290626 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752... VALID 290626Z - 290700Z OUTER BANDS OF KATRINA CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WW AREA. WITH WATCH SET TO EXPIRE AT 29/07Z...NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED -- LIKELY COVERING BASICALLY THE SAME COUNTIES/PARISHES. THE EYE OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE SERN LA COAST...WITH CENTER OF THE EYE NOW ABOUT 45 NM S OF THE SRN-MOST TIP OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH. DISCRETE CELLS PERSIST N AND NE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA -- PARTICULARLY OFF THE COAST OF SE LA / SRN MS / SRN AL. THIS COINCIDES WITH LATEST LIGHTNING LOOP...WHICH SHOWS LONG BAND OF LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THE ERN GULF NWD AND THEN NWWD INTO SERN LA. SEVERAL VELOCITY COUPLETS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION -- MOVING ENEWD ACROSS/INVOF CHANDELEUR SOUND...AND EXPECT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD/TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..GOSS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31149052 32088834 32028624 29858473 29448491 28928770 28899069 29009097 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 10:16:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 05:16:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508291134.j7TBYbGj006590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291133 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 754... VALID 291133Z - 291330Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW...AS EYE OF KATRINA CONTINUES MOVING NWD ACROSS PLAQUEMINES PARISH. MOB VWP SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE 1000 M2/S2 SFC-1 KM HELICITY ATTM...IN NERN QUADRANT OF KATRINA. GREATEST COVERAGE OF DISCRETE CELLS ATTM EXISTS ACROSS SRN AL / THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AROUND FRINGES OF THE DENSER CLOUD SHIELD...AS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES. ..GOSS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30549065 31788886 32168685 30388592 29758634 29218889 29799019 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 11:24:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 06:24:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508291242.j7TCg1cR031597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291241 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-291415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SWRN GA/CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO POTENTIAL VALID 291241Z - 291415Z TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITHIN FAR OUTER BANDS OF KATRINA. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DISCRETE CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE ATTM...E OF TORNADO WATCH 754. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...AREA IS FAR ENOUGH E OF MAIN OVERCAST ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA THAT BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT/DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE/MOVE NNWWD ACROSS THIS AREA. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...LATEST TLH VWP AND MORNING RAOB BOTH SHOW 30 TO 35 KT SFC-1KM SHEAR -- SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32218606 31418443 29878362 29308508 29758630 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 13:19:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 08:19:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508291437.j7TEbTvB010864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291436 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291436 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-291600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MS / CENTRAL AND SRN AL / FL PANHANDLE / SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 754... VALID 291436Z - 291600Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL REPLACE THE EXISTING WATCH 754. VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES EXIST OVER A LARGE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD FARTHER N AND E INTO AL AND GA AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES NWD. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THETA-E AXIS OVER SRN GA EXTENDING WWD INTO AL WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 80S. CELLS WITHIN THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30308919 33598884 33578701 33328559 32958465 31928370 30008345 29638528 30188587 30288667 30178838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 16:47:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 11:47:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508291805.j7TI55Jw030773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291804 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS / SRN AL / FL PANHANDLE / SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 755... VALID 291804Z - 291930Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 755...WITH HIGHEST THREAT OVER SERN AL...SWRN GA...AND PERHAPS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR ECHO TOPS INDICATE STORMS STRENGTHENING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW...WHERE INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S. SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL TORNADOES...WITH SMALL BUT STRONG COUPLETS NOW SEEN ON LOCAL RADARS. TORNADO THREAT WILL SHIFT NWD WITH TIME. ..JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29878389 30128982 33648983 33398381 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 18:58:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 13:58:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508292016.j7TKGBm5032364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292015 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL / NWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO THREAT VALID 292015Z - 292045Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR NRN AL AND NWRN GA. POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE AREA WITH PERIODIC MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CONVERGENT BANDS. ..JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34298827 34918811 34918419 33648382 33668420 33688530 33708661 33728811 33748820 34078825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 19:06:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 14:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508292024.j7TKOJN8006721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292023 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL / NWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO THREAT VALID 292023Z - 292100Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR NRN AL AND NWRN GA. POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE AREA WITH PERIODIC MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CONVERGENT BANDS. ..JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34298827 34918811 34918419 33648382 33668420 33688530 33708661 33728811 33748820 34078825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 21:26:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 16:26:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508292244.j7TMi4rZ024763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292242 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN MS...CENTRAL/NWRN AL...SRN PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 292242Z - 300145Z NERN INNER-CORE REGION OF HURRICANE KATRINA WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL RATES 2-4 INCHES/HOUR. THIS WILL COMPOUND HAZARD BEGUN BY OUTER BAND RAINS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW PASSING ACROSS NRN PART OF DISCUSSION AREA. STRONG CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 100-120 NM E THROUGH NW OF CENTER OF KATRINA...REMAINING PRIMARY FACTOR IN CONCENTRATING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION AS PRECIP PLUME MOVES OVHD FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCALE WITHIN THIS SWATH. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TYPICALLY RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...I.E. PW 2.25-2.75 THAT IS ESTIMATED BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. VERY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES DO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS REGIME...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF ACTIVITY TO TC CORE AND LACK OF CG LIGHTNING DETECTED. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32758730 33378783 33588839 34028959 33809027 34729047 35379001 35548904 35348769 34708681 33618646 32818665 32638718 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 21:56:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 16:56:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508292313.j7TNDv2H005993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292312 GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF GA...AL...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME WRN SC...EXTREME SWRN NC...PORTIONS SRN-MIDDLE AND SERN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 755...756... VALID 292312Z - 300015Z WW 755 AND 756 WILL BE REPLACED AND CONSOLIDATED SHORTLY...BECAUSE OF CONTINUATION OF TORNADO THREAT OVER MUCH OF REGION AND SLOW NNEWD SHIFT/EXPANSION OF THREAT TOWARD GA/TN AND GA/NC BORDERS. SEVERAL TORNADOES ALREADY GAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN GA SUPERCELLS THAT ARE MOVING NWD TOWARD NC/TN STATE LINES. NUMEROUS SMALL/TIGHTLY DEFINED MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN AVAILABLE SRM DATA FROM DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN AL/SWRN GA BANDS AS WELL. LACK OF REPORTS FROM THAT AREA SO FAR MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEAN LACK OF ACTUAL TORNADOES YET...BECAUSE OF COMMUNICATIONS SITUATION. ALTHOUGH NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK BECAUSE OF GRADUAL LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND WEAKNESS OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY BECAUSE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD BECAUSE OF LARGE AREA COVERED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR...HOWEVER GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN INVOF 4 MAIN CONVERGENCE BANDS -- TWO NOW EXTENDING N-S ACROSS MUCH OF WRN GA AND TWO OTHERS OVER CENTRAL/SERN AL MOVING NWD. VWP DERIVED HODOGRAPHS SHOW 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 700 J/KG IN CENTRAL AL...GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH EWD EXTENT TO 100-200 J/KG IN CENTRAL GA. NRN PORTION OF THIS REGIME WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS SERN TN AND SWRN NC WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM SW BECAUSE OF WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE NEAR AND SE OF CENTER OF KATRINA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 29888390 29708416 29698524 30078598 31038694 32128762 32838859 33588794 34788768 34998710 35348570 35498443 35458353 34758298 33688314 31568338 30388362 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 01:49:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 20:49:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508300306.j7U36kpf015846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300305 GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-300500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN AL...FL PANHANDLE EXCEPT FAR W...EXTREME NWRN FL PENINSULA...MUCH OF GA EXCEPT COASTAL REGION...EXTREME NWRN SC...SERN AND EXTREME SRN-MIDDLE TN...EXTREME SWRN NC. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 757... VALID 300305Z - 300500Z NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS AND OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING NOCTURNALLY WITH GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING OF SFC AIR MASS. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING CONVERGENCE BAND. AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY IS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN GULF COAST. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND VWP INDICATE LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-800 J/KG...DEPENDING GREATLY ON DEGREE OF RIGHTWARD STORM DEVIANCE THAT IS INPUT. ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF ROTATING AND PRODUCING TORNADOES. SHEAR PROFILES DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM GA/SC BORDER. SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED CONFLUENCE/PRECIP BAND OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF TS KATRINA CIRCULATION -- EXTENDING AS OF 230Z FROM MORGAN COUNTY AL SSEWD TOWARD COOSA COUNTY...THEN SSWWD ACROSS PNS. W OF THIS BAND...RISING ISALLOBARIC TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED VEERING SFC FLOW RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...BENEATH LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING. ..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 34918773 35168695 35438565 35538493 35468424 35348368 34808305 34248276 33508261 32618224 32128231 31918269 31488301 30088309 29668382 29618476 29658527 29748542 30168583 30508641 30648706 31348648 32488626 32838638 33028671 34488758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 03:42:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 22:42:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508300500.j7U50bDw001756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300459 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300459 TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-300800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN AND S-CENTRAL KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN...EXTREME NRN AL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 300459Z - 300800Z PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TS KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NWD AND NNEWD FROM NRN PORTIONS MS/AL AND TN INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY. STEADY 1-2 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCAL 3-4 INCH/HOUR RATES IN HEAVIEST EMBEDDED BANDS AND CORES. VERY EFFICIENT WARM-CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN NRN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION. BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN SMALL BECAUSE OF WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER MASS CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED AMIDST VERY MOIST AIR MASS NE-NW OF CENTER. PW 2-2.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN COMMON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF MID/WRN TN...AND REGIME SHOULD SHIFT NWD INTO KY THROUGH 9Z. ..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34998668 35318719 35728783 36038850 36208894 36628904 37038840 37548679 37188538 35888507 34988559 34818576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 07:23:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 02:23:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508300841.j7U8f62h016970@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300839 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-301045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN/SERN AL/MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE/ALL BUT SERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 757... VALID 300839Z - 301045Z TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES SE AND E OF THE CENTER OF T.S. KATRINA. THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 757...WITH NEW WW TO BE ISSUED PRIOR TO THE 30/10Z EXPIRATION OF THIS WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED/CELLULAR CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...PARTICULARLY WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR THE GA/AL BORDER WSWWD ACROSS SERN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION REMAINS LIMITED -- BOTH ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND LACK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN AL/WRN GA...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADOES WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MOISTEN NWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS REGION -- BOTH NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NWWD FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT NWD -- ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TN AS WELL AS E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO WRN SC/WRN AND CENTRAL NC. WITH CURRENT TORNADO WATCH SET TO EXPIRE AT 30/10Z...NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED -- LIKELY EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF GA NNEWD TOWARD WRN VA. ..GOSS.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE... 36588014 35437992 32298319 30788372 30958514 32418477 35498524 36618332  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 15:25:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 10:25:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508301643.j7UGhcVb011874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301642 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC...ERN WV...WRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 758...759... VALID 301642Z - 301845Z ...TORNADO THREATS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MIDDLE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR... REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE LIFTING INTO SRN KY WITH A NARROW ZONE OF PARTIAL CLEARING SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR HOLDING WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF VA IN ORDER TO OFFSET SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES. WITH TIME THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONFIRMS THIS TREND WITH SIG TOR PARAMETER VALUES SPREADING/INCREASING INTO PORTIONS OF WCNTRL VA. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SIGNIFICANT SELY COMPONENT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MAINTAINING VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TORNADO WATCHES 758/759 WILL BE REPLACED TO REFLECT THIS EVOLUTION. ..DARROW.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 36528332 39218029 38577779 35388101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 19:20:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 14:20:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508302037.j7UKbna7016422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302037 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-302200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SC...WRN NC...SRN WV...WRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 760...761... VALID 302037Z - 302200Z ...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH REGION... BACK EDGE OF ANY MEANINGFUL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE ADVANCING THICKER STRATIFIED LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS AND MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOTED DOWNSTREAM...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF APPALACHIANS. SOMEWHAT DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE NOTED DOWNSTREAM WITHIN BROKEN...BUT BANDED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN NC INTO WRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY PARTIAL HEATING AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS A FEW OF THESE SMALL SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TOWARD NRN VA. THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL WW. ..DARROW.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 34628181 36888212 38158244 38588116 37988028 37587826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 22:46:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 17:46:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310003.j7V03kFJ001929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310002 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-310100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN WV...WRN VA...WRN/NRN NC...EXTREME ERN KY. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 760...761... VALID 310002Z - 310100Z PRIND WWS 760/761 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE GONE ALTOGETHER BY 01Z...BUT WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OVER THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LESSEN IN COVERAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FROM THIS AREA NWD OVER NRN WV AND WRN PA...AS CENTRAL REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE KATRINA SHIFT NEWD OVER OH TONIGHT. HOWEVER BUOYANCY HAS DECREASED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH GRADUAL LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING. AREAS E OF WW 760 ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SERN VA WILL MAINTAIN MORE FAVORABLE CAPE...BUT ALSO WILL REMAIN IN TRANSITION ZONE TO SMALLER 0-1 KM SRH AMIDST LARGELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 35508021 35638071 35758119 35918126 36398103 36748097 36988110 37098122 36848223 38958182 38988093 38087958 37527861 36887851 35937917 34848010 35328008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 23:08:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 18:08:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310026.j7V0QDDC011194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310025 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-310230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN MD...DC...CENTRAL/NRN VA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762... VALID 310025Z - 310230Z MOST TSTMS SHOW DIMINISHING TREND ATTM AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND OVERALL TENDENCY SHOULD BE OF WEAKENING FOR REMAINDER OF WW DURATION BECAUSE OF GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN BROADLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OBSERVED IN REGIONAL VWP AND FCST BY RUC SOUNDINGS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. LATEST STERLING/LWX VWP YIELDS 0-1 KM SRH APPROXIMATELY 200 J/KG FOR NEWD MOVING CELLS...AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ROTATE AND MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES. THEREFORE WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS DESPITE DECREASING GENERAL TREND IN CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX... 36807883 38137999 39747747 38387631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 23:22:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 18:22:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310040.j7V0eMfo017438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310039 NDZ000-SDZ000-310245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310039Z - 310245Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS...SPREADING EWD THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF ND AND SD. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITING EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN WY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADS EWD AND INTERCEPTS RELATIVE THETA-E/INSTABILITY...AREAL TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG/BEHIND SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR INVOF WEYBURN/ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT ALSO NOTED INVOF MINOT ND...AND NEAR RAPID CITY SD. 00Z OBSERVED BISMARK RAOB IS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-1750 J/KG MUCAPE FOR EXPECTED PRIMARILY ELEVATED NATURE OF PARCELS...GIVEN POST-FRONTAL REGIME/NOCTURNAL COOLING. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE MAIN HAZARD AMIDST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46140257 48540393 48880357 48810046 47589939 44179909 43640105 43880249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 01:03:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 20:03:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310220.j7V2Kpi5030464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310219 PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-310415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN PA...NRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310219Z - 310415Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A FEW SHALLOW/SMALL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGION AND/OR MOVE NEWD FROM WW 762. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO. COUNTERBALANCING FACTORS INCLUDE VERY WEAK BUOYANCY AND LIKELIHOOD OF LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. EXPECT 0-3 AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS TO ENLARGE GRADUALLY AS ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS AREA...IN TUNE WITH CENTER OF REMAINS OF KATRINA FARTHER W OVER OH. IAD RAOB...REGIONAL VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 100-200 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER IN THIS REGIME...EFFECTIVE SHEARS VARYING FROM 40-60 KT. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SBCAPES LESS THAN 700 J/KG...AMIDST WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SFC-BASED BUOYANCY MAY CHANGE LITTLE BECAUSE OF WEAK/SELY SFC MOIST ADVECTION OFFSETTING GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING. STORM TOPS WILL BE LOWERED BECAUSE OF SLIM CAPE PROFILE...ASSOCIATED WEAK PARCEL ACCELERATIONS...AND 300-400 MB STABLE LAYER SAMPLED BY 00Z IAD SOUNDING. ..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39537776 39757801 40247774 40917693 41097558 40637521 39807567 39097651 38997679 39557733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 05:30:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 00:30:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310648.j7V6mH9I010488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310647 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-310815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA / S CENTRAL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL VALID 310647Z - 310815Z THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO SRN NY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD PA...WHICH DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF PA/SRN NY...AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF KATRINA NOW CENTERED AT LOW-LEVELS OVER OH. LATEST STATE COLLEGE PA /CCX/ VWP SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /40 KT FROM THE SFC TO 1 KM/...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS INDICATED -- WITH TWO SEPARATE SMALL-SCALE LINES NOW CROSSING CENTRAL PA. WITH WIND DAMAGE RECENTLY REPORTED WITH ONE OF THESE LINES -- AS WELL AS WITH THE MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL NOW ENTERING NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...IT APPEARS THAT DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS NEW WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 41757906 42597761 42827622 42477525 42007506 41307525 40027649 39647835 39797923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 10:06:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 05:06:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508311124.j7VBOF6V004671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311122 CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-311245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA/SRN NY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 763... VALID 311122Z - 311245Z SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...ALONG WITH LOCAL SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW...WITH STRONGEST STORMS CONFINED TO NERN PORTIONS OF WW. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS REMAINED LIMITED...VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT...MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OVER NERN PORTIONS OF WW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR SPREADING N OF WW...AND EXTENDING E OF WW ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS/EVOLVING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 42727665 42927468 42657340 41387346 40627549 40587731 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 17:24:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 12:24:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508311841.j7VIfgt8024501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311840 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-312015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311840Z - 312015Z ...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ALONG/AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MLCAPES ARE NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH MAIN SFC LOW HAS LIFTED INTO SRN QUEBEC...IT APPEARS LOW TOPPED...SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL SOON EVOLVE. IF BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES CAN DEVELOP ALONG THESE LINE SEGMENTS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ERN NY INTO VT FOR A SLOW UPWARD EVOLUTION OF DEEPENING CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42747426 44807301 44637144 42087301 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 19:27:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 14:27:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508312045.j7VKj6Zm016324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312043 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-312245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA AND NW/NCNTRL MO INTO NE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312043Z - 312245Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SCNTRL IA INTO NW/NCNTRL MO AND NE KS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE/DEEPEN ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR DES MOINES IA SWWD TO AROUND ST JOSEPH MO/TOPEKA KS. AMPLE HEATING HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO GRADUALLY ERODE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT/ INVOF OF THE FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH ACTIVITY CLOSELY TIED TO E/SE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO PROMOTE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF EXPECTED HAZARDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. ..GUYER.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 42019410 42089295 41669193 40119273 39289365 38489494 38169633 38719682 39739560 40479499 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 02:15:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 21:15:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508010244.j712idTW024453@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010243 MIZ000-WIZ000-010415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...U.P. OF MI...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010243Z - 010415Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN DEEPER RH PLUME EXTENDING FROM NEAR DLH...EWD ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY BY DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MEAN FLOW AND PROPAGATION COMPONENTS FAVOR A CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT INTO PORTIONS OF NERN WI...AND PARTICULARLY NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MOSTLY MULTI-CELL DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOME ROTATION WHICH COULD ENHANCE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH... 47369011 46378448 45198319 44848479 45618805 45789122 46329222 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 16:35:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 11:35:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508011703.j71H3t9u025077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011702 NYZ000-PAZ000-011830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011702Z - 011830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...WEAKER WAVES ARE EVIDENT IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH MAY NOT BE DIGGING ACROSS AREAS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF GEORGIAN BAY/LAKE HURON. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING STORMS. 30 TO 40 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID EVENTUAL PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/ CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE CELL MOTIONS/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS UTICA/ SYRACUSE/ROCHESTER AND AREAS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. ..KERR.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44337592 43897511 43517487 42877494 42207589 41987733 42187856 42487911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 20:34:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 15:34:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508012102.j71L2n60016090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012101 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-012300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN WY...THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE...NERN CO...AND FAR NWRN KS/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012101Z - 012300Z LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE. AT 2050Z...SURFACE THERMAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN NEB WITH A CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING WSWWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE 30N COS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED AND VERY DEEP ALONG THIS AXIS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F AND EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50-60F. ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY EWD AT 5-10KT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS STRONGLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT AND STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION POTENTIAL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DRY MICROBURST ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF SHORT-LIVED BUT LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39550516 40150540 42200582 42940569 43080483 42890385 42440341 40610278 40380190 40370105 40110063 39620084 39230169 39030269 39000431 39130471 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 22:02:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 17:02:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508012231.j71MVMbq021237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012228 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695... VALID 012228Z - 020000Z A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 695. A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS NH AND WRN ME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC TROUGH FROM NRN VT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER QUEBEC AND THE NERN UNITED STATES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10 C WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED ACROSS SRN NY WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 45016910 43977014 43047216 42577457 42637590 43567611 43997526 44467298 45287105 45827018 45726975  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 22:04:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 17:04:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508012233.j71MX9bV021703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012232 SDZ000-NDZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL ND AND FAR N-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012232Z - 020030Z ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN ND AND FAR NRN SD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SPATIALLY CONFINED AND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 2220Z...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND...AND ARE LIKELY BEING FED BY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SW IN THE 1-3KM LAYER. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE-NW ALONG WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL SD INTO WRN ND AND FAR NERN MT. MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILE CAN BE INFERRED FROM BIS VAD WIND PROFILE. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35-40 KT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DECREASES RAPIDLY EWD PER LATEST RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. AS CONVECTION TRACKS GENERALLY ENEWD AT 15-20 KT...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY...SO GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45610226 46210291 47150344 47490337 47720259 47680189 47360127 46920076 46470038 45980024 45490016 45140018 44980058 45040123 45220178 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 23:09:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 18:09:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508012337.j71Nbi7r007830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012336 MTZ000-IDZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL ID...FAR WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012336Z - 020100Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL ID AND FAR WRN MT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS ID WHERE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN ID. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 90S WHICH IS CREATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY (LI OF -4 TO -6 C) FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE LARGE-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO... 45271472 45421594 45821614 46611580 46951430 46451296 45531326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 02:35:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 21:35:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508020303.j7233tXj007543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020302 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020302Z - 020430Z ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN NEB FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WATCH SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN NEB. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN NEB SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF SHEAR...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT SHOULD LAST FOR 1-2 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 40960202 41350261 42590247 44590258 44740090 42120086 41180114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 13:46:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 08:46:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508021414.j72EEj3Y021492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021413 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-021645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...VT...NRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021413Z - 021645Z MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SRN QUE WITH A 50 KT H5 JET AT MOOSONEE. STRONG UPPER MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS ALREADY SUPPORTING AN INTENSIFYING BAND OF TSTMS OVER SERN QUE. VSBL SATL SUGGESTS THAT THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY OWING TO INSOLATION AND 60-65F DEW POINTS. MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE UNCAPPED/INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING STORMS AS THEY HEAD TOWARD ME...NRN VT AND NRN NH THROUGH EARLY AFTN. GIVEN FAST WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...TSTMS WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWPS/BOWS. THUS...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK. THE 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...LIKELY PARTS OF ME INTO NRN VT/NH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY FOLLOW FOR PARTS OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. ..RACY.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF... 45807496 46537230 47476891 47186762 45506721 44806794 43847029 43207281 44057618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 18:02:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 13:02:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508021830.j72IUbEc025658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021829 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-022000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NY STATE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696... VALID 021829Z - 022000Z SATL INDICATES THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 21Z. STRONG TSTMS ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH WITH STRONG WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PER CARIBOU RADAR. FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE NRN PARTS OF ME BY 21Z. 18Z MESOANALYSIS...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY/SRN QUE AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING AGAIN OWING TO HEATING BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. CU STREETS OBSERVED IN VSBL SATL WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO CBS AND DROP SEWD TOWARD NRN PARTS OF NY/VT/NH LATER THIS AFTN...VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z NAM SOLUTION. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN ME INTO NRN NY STATE. FARTHER N...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY PROVE DETRIMENTAL IN SUSTAINING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS NRN/CNTRL ME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EVE. MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS. ..RACY.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... 43307087 43467217 43817428 44987431 44987087 46916749 44906736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 21:51:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 16:51:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508022219.j72MJj3l018946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022218 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022218Z - 030015Z ...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED UNTIL STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW A FEW DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR DETROIT LAKES MN...AND THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED GIVEN ACCAS TYPE APPEARANCE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BIS/ABR SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT...WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME INHIBITION GIVEN CURRENT SFC TEMPS. THIS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION MAY BE BASED AROUND 700MB. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...NOW APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD...SO LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS REGION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING NVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF ND MAY BE INDICATIVE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM IMPULSE. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME INHIBITION AND BECOME SFC BASED...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ..TAYLOR/COHEN.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45889674 47269865 48949862 48979675 48259504 47099444 46469480 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 22:10:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 17:10:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508022238.j72MccAF025788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022237 SDZ000-030000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND N CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022237Z - 030000Z HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN/NRN SD THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR ATTM THAT A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A SERIES OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND INVOF A THERMAL LOW IN WRN SD. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...REVEAL MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG WITH SURFACE MIXED LAYER DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 3 KM. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS SLOWLY ENEWD FROM WY. THE DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS FARTHER E IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 45249967 44379989 43930155 43510282 43820339 44180325 44900242 45940134 45900021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 22:26:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 17:26:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508022255.j72Mt6KX031029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022253 MTZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SE MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022253Z - 030030Z ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE MT. SEVERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THOUGH THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS S CENTRAL MT TO THE W OF BILLINGS. WEAK ELY/NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CONVECTION WITH MODEST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EXPANDING COLD POOL. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK /MUCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG/...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ... 45290512 45070706 45100828 45530873 46110914 46480921 46700801 46650574 46300512 45720486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 23:27:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 18:27:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508022356.j72Nu2o7017767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022355 NDZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022355Z - 030130Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SWD DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS N CENTRAL ND. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS BOTTINEAU/MCHENRY COUNTIES. SWD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE TRIPLE POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ACROSS WEAKENED THIS AREA BY DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/ IS PRESENT NEAR AND E OF THE ONGOING STORMS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY ROUGHLY 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL ND. ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46969972 47220014 48260060 48750078 49010063 49019869 47979848 47479875 47099913 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 04:03:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 23:03:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508030431.j734VtxO009897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030430 MNZ000-NDZ000-030530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698... VALID 030430Z - 030530Z THE SMALL MCS ACROSS ERN ND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ENCOUNTERS STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MOVES E OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN ND. THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AND AN ADDITIONAL WW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY E OF WW 698. ..THOMPSON.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF... 47379770 47749741 48319749 48379707 47739671 47169702 47159770 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 06:30:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 01:30:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508030659.j736xBhB018951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030658 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN SD INTO CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030658Z - 030830Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS HAS OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF NERN SD/SERN ND INTO FAR W-CNTRL MN...INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW W OF HON NEWD TO N OF ATY TO BRD INTO NWRN WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL SD COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THESE STORMS. RUC PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. CURRENT ABR VWP INDICATES 30-40 KTS WSWLY FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM AGL LAYER...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP. ..MEAD.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 45549806 46319795 46859663 47129556 47299474 47169396 46889345 46259324 45909344 45639450 45109621 44919713 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 16:00:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 11:00:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508031628.j73GSrDM015681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031627 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY STATE AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031627Z - 031900Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ATTM...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT EVOLUTION WILL BE MONITORED. VSBL SATL SHOWS CU FIELD BEGINNING TO EXPAND BENEATH CONVECTIVE MID-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 JETLET TRANSLATING THROUGH SERN ONTARIO. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS LOCATED SW OF A BACKDOOR BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS BECOMING UNSTABLE OWING TO RESIDUAL SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 65-70F AND INSOLATION. COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TIED TO THE SPEED MAX...TSTM INITIATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING ACROSS ERN NY AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY FAVOR TERRAIN AND THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM VCNTY KSLK-KGFL AND SEWD INTO MA. THOUGH THE FLOW HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24-HRS...PRESENCE OF AT LEAST 30-40 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND THE PARENT SERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH MAY ENCOURAGE ISOLD TSTMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MOREOVER...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN WILL AUGMENT COLD DOWNDRAFTS. ..RACY.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 44967392 43687342 43027244 42757161 42457115 42037098 41717153 41787269 41957399 42637486 44737499 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 17:26:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 12:26:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508031754.j73Hso33029638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031754 SDZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031754Z - 032030Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL SD THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED A WW. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM SERN ND TO THE BLACK HILLS AND INTO NERN WY. MOIST NLY UPSLOPE FLOW WAS DEEPENING ACROSS WRN SD PER VWP AT RAPID CITY BEHIND THIS FRONT. COMBINATION OF THE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING TSTMS...BOTH OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND IN ELEVATED BANDS N OF THE FRONT. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A THERMAL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE BLACK HILLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED ON THE PLAINS...BUT AS HEATING CONTINUES...ELEVATED/HIGHER BASED TSTMS WILL HAVE A GREATER PROBABILITY IN ROOTING INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME A FACTOR IF/WHEN TSTMS DEVELOP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE EVOLVING ALONG/N OF THE FRONT THROUGH 21Z...THEN POSSIBLY EWD INTO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN SD LATER THIS AFTN. ..RACY.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44160352 44860170 45850002 45639800 44859708 43789759 43349858 43090109 43550342 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 18:01:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 13:01:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508031829.j73ITm1p014273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031829 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031829Z - 032030Z ...ISOLD STRONG/SVR STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS AFTN BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED... STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NE MN INVOF HIBBING. STORMS ARE SURFACE BASED GIVEN NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER THE 12Z INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUNDING. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN ONLY INTO THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S PARTIALLY DUE TO ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODERATELY STRONG AND WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. AFFECTED AREA WILL BE LIMITED...SO A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. ..TAYLOR.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH... 46879108 46759262 47379383 48139352 48479274 48509133 48388987 47928908 47008931 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 19:17:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 14:17:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508031946.j73JkVPN025622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031944 COZ000-032245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE AND CNTRL/NRN MOUNTAINS OF CO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031944Z - 032245Z LOCALLY PERSISTENT MDT-HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT FROM TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE URBAN FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS OF CO. TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER AND BOULDER VWP SHOW THAT NELY FLOW IS UP TO ABOUT 1.5 KM BEHIND FIRST WIND SHIFT SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. COLUMN IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE WITH AROUND 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING SWWD FROM SWRN NEB. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/ ROCKIES. EXPECT THAT THE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THE AFTN. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE NELY FLOW INCREASES THIS EVENING...SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. THE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING. PERSISTENT NELY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A PROLONGED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFF THE TERRAIN. AS A RESULT...SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN/BACKBUILD. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST. ..RACY.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 38520517 38840576 39570602 40930574 40890519 40790473 40450455 39740447 38610440 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 19:48:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 14:48:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508032017.j73KH92F010700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032016 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN WI...ERN IA AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032016Z - 032145Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A THERMAL RIDGE FROM NEB ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA INTO CNTRL WI AT MID-AFTN. MLCAPES WITHIN THIS AXIS WERE AROUND 3500 J/KG OWING TO LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. AN ISOLD TSTM HAD FORMED RECENTLY OVER NERN IA ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND NEWD INTO SWRN WI AND RECENT VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS EAST OF KLSE VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEWD FROM NERN IA INTO SWRN WI THROUGH LATE AFTN. BLUE RIVER PROFILER SHOWS MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH ABOUT 2 KM /OWING TO SWLY LLJ/...THEN A WEAKENING PROFILE ABOVE. THIS IS LIMITING THE OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR TO 30 OR 35 KTS. THUS...MAINLY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD RESULT. BUT...GIVEN HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS HAIL AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO SCNTRL WI/NWRN IL LATER THIS EVE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY. ..RACY.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42139294 42889233 43989119 44489036 44278960 43608937 42128908 41378952 41149091 40939231 41439350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 22:17:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 17:17:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508032246.j73MkQjm017179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032245 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN SD...FAR SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699... VALID 032245Z - 040015Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW 699 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD INTO SW MN AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH LATER THIS EVENING. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING IN SERN SD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CNTRL MN SWWD TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS AND INTO CNTRL NEB. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ARE MOVING INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...VWPS AND REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KT SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45019694 44829624 44109605 43599640 43169860 42990065 43530110 44220079 44659900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 23:14:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 18:14:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508032342.j73NgtK2005159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032342 NEZ000-COZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN NEB...FAR NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032342Z - 040115Z STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE CO...WRN NEB AND CNTRL NEB. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN CO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS HELPING STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED IN NE CO AND ACROSS MOST OF NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN WRN NEB SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS FAVOR A HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 08/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40330036 40020276 40900355 41610285 42419888 41259798 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 02:35:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 21:35:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508040303.j7433b29005227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040302 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-040430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...NW IA...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 700...701... VALID 040302Z - 040430Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A LINE OF STORMS LOCATED FROM SW MN EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF WW 701...THOUGH THE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS NE IA AND SE MN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM SRN MN EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN NEB. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN US UPPER-TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW MN AND ERN NEB. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SWRN NEB OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR THE STORMS RANGE FROM NEAR 4000 J/KG IN NW IA TO 1500 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CNTRL NEB. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40939910 40810108 41560099 42060035 42989753 44179594 44489511 44319386 43609398 42269562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 16:35:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 11:35:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508051703.j75H3nrU032515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051702 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-051900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051702Z - 051900Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 20-21Z. NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH SEVERE THREAT MOSTLY HIGHLY LOCALIZED OR MINOR...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING THROUGH THE 90S...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING NEAR 70F... CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. UPSTREAM... INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS STEADILY ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH VERMONT/SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO MERGE INTO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...MUCH AS PROGGED BY MODELS...ACROSS OR NEAR THE PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK CITY AND BOSTON AREAS. COUPLED WITH WEAKENING/EASTWARD SHIFT OF HIGH-LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING/INTENSIFYING BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THOUGH WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. ..KERR.. 08/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 40817571 41237506 41997329 42657235 43737155 44287044 43857007 41877073 40687281 39827467 39747558 40257658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 21:13:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 16:13:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508052141.j75LfukB005032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052140 MAZ000-RIZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...RI AND SERN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052140Z - 052315Z LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS ACROSS ERN RI AND SERN MA THROUGH 23Z. CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY SWD INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY RI HAS DEVELOPED A STRONG COLD POOL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AT 40 KT. SURFACE SWLY TRAJECTORIES IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 90S...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF RI/SERN MA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD TAKE THESE STORMS TO NEAR PLYMOUTH BY 2215Z AND ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF CAPE COD BY 23Z. ALTHOUGH MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BOX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES WSWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT BETWEEN 1-3KM AGL. WIND SPEEDS LOCALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD YIELD LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF RI AND SERN MA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX... 42207157 42317128 42327101 42257043 42167001 41986987 41726986 41496992 41457021 41427064 41387111 41357149 41397165 41717169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 21:53:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 16:53:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508052221.j75MLaRJ019007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052220 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...WRN TN...FAR NW AL...FAR NE LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052220Z - 052345Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WRN TN...FAR NW AL AND MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED ACROSS WRN AL. THE STORMS ARE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS AR INTO KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOWN ON VAD WIND PROFILERS IN MS AND AL SUGGESTS MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX... 35548921 36098848 35898773 35168765 33778845 31419005 31059077 31299142 31879154 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 17:22:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 12:22:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508071751.j77Hp40F026947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071750 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR OH VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 071750Z - 071845Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON... BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED OR MINOR IN VERY WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME. WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAK...ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG/SOUTH OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS UNIMPEDED...NORTH OF CLOUDINESS IN DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF COAST UPPER LOW. MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND RISK FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS MAY INCREASE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED 90F WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 08/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 37219033 38508902 39628803 39798666 39538586 39728510 39458423 39238336 39648196 39618082 38648135 38308240 37808404 37238490 36898628 36348830 35978934 36029052 36639058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 18:14:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 13:14:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508071843.j77IhAsd009337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071842 WIZ000-MNZ000-072045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071842Z - 072045Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM N-CENTRAL MN EWD INTO FAR NWRN WI. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 1830Z...STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM JUST SOUTH OF ABR TO 25S BRD TO THE NWRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE IT MERGES WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSITIVE EFFECTS HAVE GRADUALLY MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY. RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT MLCIN REMAINS AROUND -100 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT...HOWEVER...WEAK ELEVATED STORMS EXIST ACROSS CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES IN MN ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SW. CONTINUATION OF WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ELEVATED STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MUCAPE VALUES AROUND BRD INCREASE TO 3500 J/KG BY 20Z ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ARE EVENTUALLY ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING/LESSENING OF CIN THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 08/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 45399283 45929445 46369510 46679566 46959569 47189560 47339511 47289435 47149361 46869293 46629238 46159199 45749169 45449200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 22:03:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 17:03:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508072231.j77MVf6f015541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072230 WIZ000-MNZ000-080030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072230Z - 080030Z THE AREA FROM CENTRAL MN EWD INTO WRN WI IS BEING MONITORED FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AT 2215Z...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD FROM JUST SOUTH OF ABR TO 25S BJI TO 10S HIB. AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. COMBINATION OF NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS CENTRAL MN. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F...ABSOLUTE CIN IS CURRENTLY VERY LOW WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR INITIATION IS LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY CURRENTLY....WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS FAR ERN MT SWD INTO NERN WY. STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE IS FOCUSING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS WITH MINIMAL SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL MN. TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS POSSIBLE WITH WEAKER LEADING WAVE...AND SHORT-RANGE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS. WNWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 08/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 44459437 45049531 46319586 46959569 47179506 47089346 46939271 46529240 45819217 44779208 44429281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 00:27:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 19:27:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508080055.j780tKRT018923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080054 WIZ000-MNZ000-080200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL MN AND FAR WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702... VALID 080054Z - 080200Z CONTINUE WW 702. INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MILLE LACS AND KANABEC COUNTIES IN E-CENTRAL MN HAS DISSIPATED SINCE 08/00Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATE CU FIELD IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...THE DEEP-LAYER FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME. WITH LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIMITED OVER THE WATCH AREA. IF ADDITIONAL T-STORMS DO NOT FORM...WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED AROUND 02Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 44569476 44909486 46559515 46669509 46689423 46689248 46649233 45529212 44789200 44659196 44559200 44519328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 09:24:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 04:24:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508080952.j789qjg2004333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080952 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080951 WIZ000-MNZ000-081145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080951Z - 081145Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SRN MN AND WRN WI THIS MORNING. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...AND AHEAD OF FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN AND EXTREME WRN WI. ALTHOUGH STORM UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY ROOTED WELL ABOVE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION...STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXIST IN THE 700MB THROUGH 500MB LAYER TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST RUC FORECASTS INDICATED THAT 45-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN DIRECTED INTO WRN/CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION FROM UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 45999390 46259243 44749128 43849501 45449619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 14:18:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 09:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508081446.j78EktFd024026@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081445 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-081615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703... VALID 081445Z - 081615Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 16Z. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...WW RE-ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS WW 703 HAVE NOT ORGANIZED AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NOTED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF TSTM COMPLEX WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING IS TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OWING TO DIURNAL WEAKENING OF WLY LLJ AND SWD DISPLACEMENT OF STORMS FROM PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES HAVE DISCOURAGED STORM ORGANIZATION THUS FAR. ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 16Z. A REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 45849541 45879022 43449058 43469559 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 22:23:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 17:23:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508082252.j78Mq01S022610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082251 MNZ000-SDZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082251Z - 090015Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS ALLOWED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD INTO SWRN MN...8.5-9.5C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. WITH SFC DEW POINTS HOLDING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...MLCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 4000J/KG ALONG WIND SHIFT THAT EXTENDS FROM SWIFT COUNTY MN...SWWD INTO CLARK COUNTY SD. SEVERAL UPDRAFTS HAVE REACHED THEIR LFC AND MAY BECOME SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF SO...A SSEWD DRIFT WOULD OCCUR ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STORM MERGERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES. ..DARROW.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44919842 45449572 44509500 44059662 43819885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 22:33:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 17:33:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508082302.j78N22dF026183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082301 COR MNZ000-SDZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082301Z - 090015Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS ALLOWED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD INTO SWRN MN...8.5-9.5C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. WITH SFC DEW POINTS HOLDING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...MLCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 4000J/KG ALONG WIND SHIFT THAT EXTENDS FROM SWIFT COUNTY MN...SWWD INTO CLARK COUNTY SD. SEVERAL UPDRAFTS HAVE REACHED THEIR LFC AND MAY BECOME SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF SO...A SSEWD DRIFT WOULD OCCUR ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STORM MERGERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES. ..DARROW.. 08/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44919842 45449572 44509500 44059662 43819885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 16:24:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 11:24:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508091652.j79GqkDc027701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091651 WIZ000-MNZ000-091815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN INTO NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091651Z - 091815Z LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO E AND W OF STC WITH A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THE N OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MPX 0.5 DEGREE BASE REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD...THUS INTENSIFYING STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER NWRN WI. RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN/CNTRL MN IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45089491 45669497 46209413 46449259 46629111 46238997 45788994 45059085 44809203 44699406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 17:28:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 12:28:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508091756.j79HuG1K032697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091755 TXZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091755Z - 091930Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE OVER MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER. LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS NWRN INTO SERN TX AND WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF BOUNDARY DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 10-20 KTS. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND WEAK SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER W CENTRAL TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31359670 31859596 32069539 31259401 29849408 29279508 28789564 28689634 28979718 30950050 32180158 33110187 32780157 32950103 32860014 32279958 31529786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 18:22:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 13:22:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508091851.j79Ip2H1029434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091850 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA / SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091850Z - 092015Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT. 12Z PHOENIX RAOB INDICATES EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS PRESENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK...STRONG INSTABILITY AND NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS A FEW SEVERE PULSE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY....WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS DESPITE WARM AND MOIST PROFILES. 18Z RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING SWWD ACROSS SRN NV AND NWRN AZ. STORMS AND OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO SERN CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS LOWER PRESSURES...AND MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32661619 33541668 34091698 35871602 35931468 35151376 34571306 34621175 34091040 33201000 31931026 31331049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 19:29:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 14:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508091958.j79Jw5nd001318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091957 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091956 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091956Z - 092130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM TSTM COMPLEX OVER KNOX...ANTELOPE...HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES IN NEB WSWWD INTO THOMAS COUNTY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TCU LINE FROM YUMA INTO PUEBLO COUNTIES IN ERN CO. AIR MASS S OF FRONTAL ZONE HAS HEATED WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTING OVER CNTRL INTO ERN NEB WITHIN AXIS OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THAT BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS GENERALLY N OF THE NEB/SD BORDER...VERTICAL SHEAR TENDS TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... 42389853 41709841 40500006 39580124 38490250 38530349 39180315 41180158 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 21:59:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 16:59:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508092227.j79MRF6Z010054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092226 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA TO NERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707...708... VALID 092226Z - 100000Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE ACROSS NRN IA AND CENTRAL WI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM... SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FORCING MATURING SQUALL LINE SEWD ACROSS NWRN IA INTO CNTRL WI. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EXPAND LINEARLY WITH EMBEDDED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM SUGGESTING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF CURRENT WATCHES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42599558 44858983 44798754 44168818 42839214 41839457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 23:33:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 18:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508100001.j7A01UIr007157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100000 NEZ000-KSZ000-100130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 709... VALID 100000Z - 100130Z ...STRONG STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEB... MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE SLOWLY MERGING OVER SERN PORTIONS OF THE WW. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WITHIN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SFC-3KM VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM. IT APPEARS SWD PROPAGATION WILL CONTINUE AS SLY INFLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15KT PERSISTS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN KS INTO SCNTRL NEB. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...IT APPEARS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 39680162 41040057 41549951 41339858 40169852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 00:48:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 19:48:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508100116.j7A1Ggbq030659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100113 WIZ000-100245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN...ERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707... VALID 100113Z - 100245Z ...SQUALL LINE SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ECNTRL/SERN WI. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... SURGING PORTION OF SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF WI...ARCING FROM PORTAGE COUNTY TO MARQUETTE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES...AND ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES LAKE MI. MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...LESS THAN 1000J/KG...SUPPORTING GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 43149036 43718918 44438870 44328749 43208796 42649005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 18:44:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 13:44:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508101912.j7AJCOD8023207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101910 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PNHDL INTO NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101910Z - 102015Z POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WY INTO WRN SD...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SWRN MT AND NWRN CO. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HAVE RESULTED IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. CURRENT PROFILERS AND VWPS SHOW THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS/ ACROSS NWRN WY INTO WRN SD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES IN PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER DOES INDICATE A 25 KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF SRN DISTURBANCE...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FARTHER S OVER NERN CO/SERN WY INTO THE SRN NEB PNHDL. FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SHEAR INSTABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 41000259 40360332 40380476 40890539 42390559 44190547 44880483 45040401 45000324 44500254 42230257  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 18:53:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 13:53:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508101921.j7AJLVmV027587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101920 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-102015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT / CENTRAL AND NWRN WY / FAR NERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101920Z - 102015Z SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOW END SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WY / SWRN MT / NERN ID AND WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME HAIL. SURFACE OA FIELDS INDICATE CAPPING EXISTS FARTHER E TOWARD BIL...BUT CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ERASE CAP WITH TIME. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..JEWELL.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 46310770 45280683 42810671 42880870 44181288 44921323 45781293 46431127 46480849 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 19:54:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 14:54:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508102022.j7AKMauT027839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102021 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102021Z - 102145Z SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED TODAY N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN COVERAGE NOTED OVER N-CNTRL INTO NERN NEB. INSPECTION OF LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP FRONTAL ZONE IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD INVOF FRONTAL ZONE OVER OTOE...SALINE WWD AND THEN SWWD THROUGH CLAY AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEB. WHILE RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OVER NRN KS INTO SRN NEB HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES N OF FRONT OVER E-CNTRL NEB INTO W-CNTRL AND NWRN IA HAVE ALLOWED BOUNDARY-LAYER TO WARM/DESTABILIZE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED... LIKELY SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN ELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO WLY AT 20-30 KTS IN THE 4-7 KM AGL LAYER ON CURRENT NELIGH PROFILER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACTIVITY BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OVER SERN AND S-CNTRL NEB IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. SHOULD DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40339867 40599972 41810015 42539920 42709749 42699582 42539509 41859480 41129486 40719515 40599699 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 21:42:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 16:42:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508102210.j7AMAKSN017738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102209 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... VALID 102209Z - 102315Z STORMS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN WY...SWRN SD AND WRN NEB NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ERN WY SEWD INTO SRN NEB. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN WY MOVES EWD AND LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN NEB. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND ELEVATED STORM UPDRAFTS...SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... 44480622 44510192 40960110 40960531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 22:05:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 17:05:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508102233.j7AMXZ8F025961@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102232 WYZ000-MTZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MT / WRN AND CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711... VALID 102232Z - 110000Z THREAT CONTINUES FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MT. DISTINCT VERTICAL MOTION FEATURE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SUPERCELLULAR TYPE STORMS OVER NERN MT WHERE INSTABILITY IS MEAGER. ANOTHER FEATURE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE YELLOWSTONE AREA. MOST PERSISTENT THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLE WIND WILL BE ACROSS MT...INCLUDING NRN PORTIONS OF WW 711...AS ELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL JET BOTH ADVECTS MOISTURE WWD AND MAXIMIZES DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG CAP ACROSS NERN MT...THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH HAIL THREAT AS FAR E AS ND. ..JEWELL.. 08/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 42600591 42560895 46951187 46930838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 23:40:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 18:40:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508110008.j7B08Vhb025805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110007 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-110100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD AND MUCH OF NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712...713... VALID 110007Z - 110100Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN WY...SWRN SD AND MUCH OF NEB. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEB NWWD INTO ERN WY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN NERN WY. VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS EXTREME ERN CO/WRN KS AND THIS SHOULD AID THE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF STORMS FROM EAST OF AIA TO SNY AND SWD INTO NERN CO WILL SHIFT EWD AND MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. STORMS IN ERN NEB HAVE RECENTLY WEAKENED...BUT OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL/ERN BETWEEN 02-04Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS INTO THAT AREA. ..IMY.. 08/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW... 41040379 42210414 42500559 44520625 44510183 42790148 42089508 40579512 40960043 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 18:13:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 13:13:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508111841.j7BIfs9I006188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111841 OHZ000-INZ000-112045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IND THROUGH W CNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111841Z - 112045Z STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER CNTRL IND AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD THROUGH E CNTRL IND AND W CNTRL OH. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL IND FROM NEAR GREENTOWN SWWD TO NEAR LEBANON AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 20 TO 25 KT. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF AN E-W ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AND MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR TO HAIL SIZE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 8 TO 8.5 C/KM AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THE STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE. ..DIAL.. 08/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND... 39598394 39668506 39748649 40418582 40658474 40408343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 19:45:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 14:45:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508112013.j7BKDV9H024743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112012 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB THROUGH SWRN AND S CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112012Z - 112215Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IA INTO SERN NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SRN IA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WEAK CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING ASCENT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS FROM SERN NEB THROUGH SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND...EXPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. ..DIAL.. 08/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40529308 40749443 40549617 41289640 41849459 41539256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 21:57:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 16:57:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508112225.j7BMPbQb023548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112224 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL / CENTRAL IN / WRN OH / FAR NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112224Z - 112330Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FLOW AROUND 850 MB HAS BACKED LAST FEW HOURS AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE SW BY 00Z. GIVEN PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY AND NEGLIGIBLE CAPPING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. NRN INDIANA PROFILER SHOWS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT FOR SUPERCELLS...AS DO CHICAGO AREA VWPS. THUS...LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.75" DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN IL AND IN. ..JEWELL.. 08/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39388874 39989069 41179033 41308942 41208848 41068714 40918617 40098286 39188279 38378355 38828589 39118740 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 00:15:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 19:15:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508120043.j7C0h6o6004691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120042 ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714... VALID 120042Z - 120215Z THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN HALF OF WW 714 THROUGH 03Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW SW OF ALO WITH AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THIS FEATURE INTO CNTRL IL. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN MN TO THE CNTRL IA LOW AND THEN SWWD INTO NWRN MO. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN IA COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA HAVE LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR NEAR OTM. 00Z DVN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED FOR MEAN-MIXED PARCELS WITH A MLCAPE OF AROUND 900 J/KG. ONGOING STORMS INDICATE THAT PARCELS ARE INDEED REACHING THEIR LFC/S...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL WEAK BUOYANCY...STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SW IA DISTURBANCE...LIKELY LEADING TO A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ONGOING ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX...OAX... 42339512 42549046 40919038 40659498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 03:15:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 22:15:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508120343.j7C3hNLE032053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120342 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI INTO NWRN IND AND PERHAPS SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120342Z - 120515Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WAS ALSO NOTED N OF ATTENDANT WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF SRN WI AND AS FAR E AS SRN LAKE MI. ACTIVITY OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER ERN IA IS LIKELY SURFACE-BASED WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE SOME WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL WINDS /PER LOCAL VWPS/...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR /ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS/ REMAINS RATHER STRONG. IT APPEARS THAT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND POOR LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN IL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. N OF WARM FRONT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS SRN WI AND ACROSS SRN LAKE MI. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER THE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40939134 41599138 42389108 43189041 43468929 43118705 42518605 41618606 40978657 40488759 40378962 40689086 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 15:09:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 10:09:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508121537.j7CFbSHv021156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121536 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121536 NYZ000-PAZ000-121730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SWRN NY THROUGH NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121536Z - 121730Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SRN NY INTO NRN PA NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WNWWD INTO NRN PA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATES EAST INTO NY. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE OH VALLEY ADVECTING NEWD WITH MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE INTO SRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ..DIAL.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42677878 42757672 42317500 41177555 40907726 41347936 42258041 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 17:40:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 12:40:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508121808.j7CI8U9h003398@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121807 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL IL...NRN IND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121807Z - 122000Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NRN IL...NRN IND INTO SRN LOWER MI. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN IL. THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT IS DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN POOR 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PROCESS WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK CAP AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41199005 41988728 43088403 41908348 40968627 40368971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 19:41:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 14:41:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508122009.j7CK9nAh028524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122008 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE ID/SRN MT AND NRN/CNTRL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122008Z - 122215Z THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL /AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM NE ID/SW MT INTO MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL WY AND EXTREME SE MT. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN ID AT THIS TIME. GIVEN EWD TRANSITION OF UPWARD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.,.TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /AROUND -15C AT 500 MB/ AND WRN EXTENT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL AS FAR WEST AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE ID/SW MT THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...A MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WY INTO EXTREME SE MT...SUCH THAT A WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED 12Z RIVERTON WY RAOB/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WY. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 45441465 46211399 46401220 45721017 45340498 44040469 42600502 42921000 44011160 44231399 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 20:02:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 15:02:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508122030.j7CKUVUE005403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122029 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-122230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY THROUGH NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715... VALID 122029Z - 122230Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM S CNTRL INTO SERN NY AND NRN CNTRL THROUGH NERN PA. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM S CNTRL NY INTO N CNTRL PA MOVING EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT IN VICINITY OF AND JUST N OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WITH 35 TO 40 KT THROUGH 6 KM. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED...AND SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HAIL. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD THROUGH S CNTRL/SERN NY AND N CNTRL/NERN PA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W INTO THE WRN PARTS OF WW 715 MAY BE LIMITED BY LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND APPARENT SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..DIAL.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 42527599 41857392 41097432 40997642 41177854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 20:30:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 15:30:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508122058.j7CKwN70019157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122057 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/NRN OK AND SRN/ERN KS INTO SW/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122057Z - 122300Z POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR PULSE-TYPE/ISOLD DAMAGING MICROBURSTS /AND PERHAPS A LARGE HAILSTONE OR TWO/ ACROSS NRN/WCNTRL OK AND SRN/ERN KS INTO SW/CNTRL MO. A SEVERE WATCH IS UNLIKELY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS SRN KS/CNTRL MO...SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN/WCNTRL OK. AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH 17Z LAMONT OK RAOB/REGIONAL RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING 2500-3000 J/KG MUCAPE. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OF 15-20 KTS OR LESS BELOW 6 KM WILL LEAD TO RATHER LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE MODE. ISOLD DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37689901 38559736 39419392 39509188 38839106 37799129 36919355 35719667 35419745 35649863 36549939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 22:58:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 17:58:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508130015.j7D0FxVh021521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130013 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-130145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/FAR SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716... VALID 130013Z - 130145Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 716 CONTINUES ACROSS ERN WY UNTIL 05Z. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD ESE INTO FAR SW SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUE AT THIS TIME ACROSS ERN WY IN WW 716...WHERE AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE TORNADO OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN MODEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. WITH EWD TRANSITION OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES IMPULSE...COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF SELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONGEAL/EXPAND ESE INTO FAR SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY BREACH EWD OUT OF WW 716 INTO FAR SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY OWING TO MODEST INSTABILITY/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GUYER.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW... 43540665 44000549 43960400 43460284 42010221 41200230 41140385 42130599 42850662  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 00:45:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 19:45:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508130203.j7D23MKc016556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130202 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-130300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN WY INTO SWRN SD AND NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716... VALID 130202Z - 130300Z THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...REMAINING PORTION OF WW 716 WILL BE CANCELLED BY 03Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WY HAVE WEAKENED AND MERGED INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY WY ENEWD TO SHANNON COUNTY IN SWRN SD. DESPITE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS/ ACROSS AREA...A COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN AIR MASS STABILITY IS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY. LINEAR ORIENTATION OF STORMS SUGGESTS SOME COLD POOL ORGANIZATION. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...REMAINING PORTION OF WW 716 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 03Z. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW... 43330629 43710231 42990197 42410341 42010412 42020614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 20:24:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 15:24:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508132142.j7DLg7nG013967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132141 OKZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0441 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK...INCLUDING THE OKC METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132141Z - 132315Z DAMAGING MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL OK /INCLUDING THE OKC METRO AREA/ INTO EARLY EVENING. RELATIVELY WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL ACROSS SW OK /INVOF LAWTON AREA/ EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A NNE MOVEMENT OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS INTO CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL SHEAR IS WEAK...SWLYS IN LOW/MID LEVELS PER PURCELL OK PROFILER WILL SUPPORT COLD POOL PROPAGATION. AMBIENT AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL OK AHEAD OF THESE TSTMS HAS GRADUALLY RECOVERED IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF APPROX 2000 J/KG MLCAPE WHERE MODEST INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED. DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..GUYER.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 35309879 35799856 36069746 35779603 34869590 34059647 34419764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 21:20:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 16:20:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508132238.j7DMc7vg028810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132236 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-132330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA/SERN NY AND NRN NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 717... VALID 132236Z - 132330Z SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN PART OF WW 717 THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A BOUNDARY... LOCALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SWRN MA/CT BORDER. A MARINE BOUNDARY HAD MOVED NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NRN CT EWD TO 20 SE BOS. STRONGEST STORMS PER REGIONAL RADARS WERE LOCATED NORTH OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THUS SUGGESTING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED OR POTENTIALLY NEAR SURFACE BASED. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FROM NERN PA/SERN NY AND EWD ACROSS MA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MOST OF CT/RI AND SERN MA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..PETERS.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 42747312 42827033 42797003 42206973 41056998 40647203 40237368 40587479 40597583 41497656 42137683 42567506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 22:11:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 17:11:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508132329.j7DNTJdK008748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132328 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL AND WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719... VALID 132328Z - 140030Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 719. SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WW 719 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...THUS PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW AT THIS TIME. 23Z MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN IND WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL /TO THE NORTH OF THE EWD MOVING BOW ECHOES/ AND INTO NRN MO. A SECOND BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM AN MCV OVER NERN IND SWWD INTO THE APEX OF THE LEADING BOW ECHO OVER CENTRAL IL...NEAR 25 NNW SLO. RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A 30 KT FORWARD MOTION WITH THE LEADING BOW ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IL. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LEADING BOW AND AN WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS EWD MAINLY ALONG THE SECOND BOUNDARY INTO IND. THE SECOND BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EWD AT 40-45 KT ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THAT THIS SECOND BOW IS LIKELY ELEVATED...SINCE IT IS MOVING INTO THE STABLE COLD POOL REGION OF THE LEAD BOW. ..PETERS.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 38009151 38559139 39529174 39809123 39748919 39938785 39908696 39228655 38398679 37968841 37719132 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 22:32:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 17:32:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508132349.j7DNnRBr013055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132348 OHZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718... VALID 132348Z - 140115Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 718 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS NRN OH. MCV PROGRESSING EWD FROM FAR NE IND INTO NW OH AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA ACROSS FAR NE INDIANA/NRN OH...AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS APPARENTLY BEGUN TO WANE VIA PREVIOUS CONVECTION/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN OH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AIDED BY MCV...NORTHERN INDIANA WSR-88D VWP IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTIVE OF 30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NCNTRL OH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IT APPEARS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 718 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. ..GUYER.. 08/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... 41618439 41668352 41318158 41428069 40758086 40298121 40558458 40918465 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeAlb029722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141608 NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SERN NY THROUGH MA...RI AND CT...VT...NH AND NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141608Z - 141815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM SRN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD THROUGH SRN NY AND INTO NWRN PA. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK CAP AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM NRN PA INTO SRN NY. ACTIVITY WILL BE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES FROM 25 TO 40 KT IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER WILL BE MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT ALSO APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM SE AND E CNTRL NY THROUGH PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41237833 42837523 43247130 41057216 40377444 40587735 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeBFT029742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150123 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-150230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN PA AND CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 150123Z - 150230Z A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. AS OF 0112Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM WRN CT SWWD INTO NRN NJ AND PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN PA. WEDGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS THIS EVENING OVER SERN PA AND NRN/CNTRL NJ WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN AT LEAST SRN PORTION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FARTHER TO THE NE...COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC HAVE EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER OVER LONG ISLAND...NYC NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS MOVING INTO THIS COOLER AIR MASS...IT APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SERN PA INTO CNTRL NJ THROUGH 02 OR 03Z. ..MEAD.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39787761 42767324 42636994 40686998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeE7d029773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141628 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141628Z - 141830Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN AR AND INTO SERN MO. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO SRN IL AND SWRN IND/WRN KY. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL AND INTO SWRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER NERN OK. CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST E OF THIS FEATURE ALONG A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD WHERE THE CAP IS WEAK AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 90S. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH EVOLUTION INTO LINES AND BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND HIGH LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37348742 36638891 35999056 35069298 37099250 38209030 38758811 38408711 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeDGE029747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152208 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 152208Z - 160015Z ISOLATED HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER POINT CONCEPTION CA. TSTMS ALREADY EVOLVING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS NV INTO NRN AZ AT THIS TIME...AND COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...AND LOCAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN NV AND INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSOLATION ON FRINGE OF DRYSLOT EAST OF UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR CA INTO SRN NV. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 25-30 KTS/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...1.22 INCHES PER DRA 12Z RAOB AND 1.01 INCHES IN 18Z EDW RAOB. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 34751451 33611663 34391799 34651848 35051872 36491907 37501937 38411816 38841541 38711398 37341285 35881260 35051356  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeDC7029759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142157 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142157Z - 142330Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 721 BY 2230-2300Z AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. AS 2138Z...PAH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURE FROM STE. GENEVIEVE TO BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SERN MO...SSWWD INTO CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN NERN AR. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT REMAINS AOB 20 KTS...SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION HAS BEEN RECENTLY NOTED ALONG CREST OF BOW OVER BOLLINGER COUNTY. PRESENCE OF HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SERN MO...WRN TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IL IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR. LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT THIS BOWING STRUCTURE IS LOCATED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT DOWNWIND COLD POOL ELONGATION AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX... 38009012 38238924 38348746 38028666 37348669 36888811 36778966 37139023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeHap029831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150123 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-150230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN PA AND CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 150123Z - 150230Z A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. AS OF 0112Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM WRN CT SWWD INTO NRN NJ AND PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN PA. WEDGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS THIS EVENING OVER SERN PA AND NRN/CNTRL NJ WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN AT LEAST SRN PORTION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FARTHER TO THE NE...COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC HAVE EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER OVER LONG ISLAND...NYC NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS MOVING INTO THIS COOLER AIR MASS...IT APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SERN PA INTO CNTRL NJ THROUGH 02 OR 03Z. ..MEAD.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39787761 42767324 42636994 40686998  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeHd4029803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142038 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SRN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 142038Z - 142245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NY AND NW PA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. SUPERCELL THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST FROM E CNTRL AND SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE GREATEST HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AFTER WHICH STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41067058 40007761 41997807 43147100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeLNn029936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142157 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142157Z - 142330Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 721 BY 2230-2300Z AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. AS 2138Z...PAH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURE FROM STE. GENEVIEVE TO BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SERN MO...SSWWD INTO CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN NERN AR. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT REMAINS AOB 20 KTS...SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION HAS BEEN RECENTLY NOTED ALONG CREST OF BOW OVER BOLLINGER COUNTY. PRESENCE OF HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SERN MO...WRN TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IL IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR. LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT THIS BOWING STRUCTURE IS LOCATED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT DOWNWIND COLD POOL ELONGATION AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX... 38009012 38238924 38348746 38028666 37348669 36888811 36778966 37139023  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeNQU029965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150123 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-150230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN PA AND CNTRL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 150123Z - 150230Z A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. AS OF 0112Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM WRN CT SWWD INTO NRN NJ AND PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN PA. WEDGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS THIS EVENING OVER SERN PA AND NRN/CNTRL NJ WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN AT LEAST SRN PORTION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FARTHER TO THE NE...COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC HAVE EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER OVER LONG ISLAND...NYC NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS MOVING INTO THIS COOLER AIR MASS...IT APPEARS THE BETTER THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SERN PA INTO CNTRL NJ THROUGH 02 OR 03Z. ..MEAD.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39787761 42767324 42636994 40686998  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeR8M030015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141628 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141628Z - 141830Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN AR AND INTO SERN MO. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO SRN IL AND SWRN IND/WRN KY. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL AND INTO SWRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER NERN OK. CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST E OF THIS FEATURE ALONG A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD WHERE THE CAP IS WEAK AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 90S. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH EVOLUTION INTO LINES AND BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND HIGH LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37348742 36638891 35999056 35069298 37099250 38209030 38758811 38408711  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeUge030079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150210 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-150315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY/SERN IL AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 722... VALID 150210Z - 150315Z ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND WW 722 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. TRENDS IN LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT PERSISTENT BOWING STRUCTURE HAS FRACTURED AND WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT OUTRUNNING SRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE BY 10-15 MILES. PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS FROM VICINITY OF BWG NWD TO THE OH RIVER HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED INFLOW INTO DECAYING BOW STRUCTURE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03 OR 04Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHING AND WW 722 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG... 36458815 38618783 38618624 36758627  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeJro029882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141628 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141628Z - 141830Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN AR AND INTO SERN MO. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO SRN IL AND SWRN IND/WRN KY. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL AND INTO SWRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER NERN OK. CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST E OF THIS FEATURE ALONG A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD WHERE THE CAP IS WEAK AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 90S. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH EVOLUTION INTO LINES AND BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND HIGH LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37348742 36638891 35999056 35069298 37099250 38209030 38758811 38408711  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeEx8029779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151859 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY/WRN INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151859Z - 152100Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED THREAT BEGIN TO EVOLVE. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR SRN KY...SEEMINGLY COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAYS TSTMS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX/MCV OVER SRN MO. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER DEPICTING 20-30 KT WSWLYS IN 1-6 KM LAYER. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36159142 37839143 38528768 38688581 36468521 35418608 35118774 35119095  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeRW8030004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142038 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SRN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 142038Z - 142245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NY AND NW PA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. SUPERCELL THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST FROM E CNTRL AND SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE GREATEST HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AFTER WHICH STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41067058 40007761 41997807 43147100  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeKoK029896@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142157 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142157Z - 142330Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 721 BY 2230-2300Z AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. AS 2138Z...PAH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURE FROM STE. GENEVIEVE TO BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SERN MO...SSWWD INTO CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN NERN AR. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT REMAINS AOB 20 KTS...SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION HAS BEEN RECENTLY NOTED ALONG CREST OF BOW OVER BOLLINGER COUNTY. PRESENCE OF HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SERN MO...WRN TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IL IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR. LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT THIS BOWING STRUCTURE IS LOCATED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT DOWNWIND COLD POOL ELONGATION AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX... 38009012 38238924 38348746 38028666 37348669 36888811 36778966 37139023  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeTei030061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151859 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY/WRN INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151859Z - 152100Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED THREAT BEGIN TO EVOLVE. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR SRN KY...SEEMINGLY COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAYS TSTMS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX/MCV OVER SRN MO. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER DEPICTING 20-30 KT WSWLYS IN 1-6 KM LAYER. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36159142 37839143 38528768 38688581 36468521 35418608 35118774 35119095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeMdM029960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142038 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SRN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 142038Z - 142245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NY AND NW PA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. SUPERCELL THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST FROM E CNTRL AND SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE GREATEST HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AFTER WHICH STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41067058 40007761 41997807 43147100  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeOip029979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151859 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY/WRN INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151859Z - 152100Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED THREAT BEGIN TO EVOLVE. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR SRN KY...SEEMINGLY COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAYS TSTMS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX/MCV OVER SRN MO. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER DEPICTING 20-30 KT WSWLYS IN 1-6 KM LAYER. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36159142 37839143 38528768 38688581 36468521 35418608 35118774 35119095  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeISl029867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152208 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 152208Z - 160015Z ISOLATED HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER POINT CONCEPTION CA. TSTMS ALREADY EVOLVING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS NV INTO NRN AZ AT THIS TIME...AND COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...AND LOCAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN NV AND INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSOLATION ON FRINGE OF DRYSLOT EAST OF UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR CA INTO SRN NV. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 25-30 KTS/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...1.22 INCHES PER DRA 12Z RAOB AND 1.01 INCHES IN 18Z EDW RAOB. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 34751451 33611663 34391799 34651848 35051872 36491907 37501937 38411816 38841541 38711398 37341285 35881260 35051356  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeS3a030028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141608 NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SERN NY THROUGH MA...RI AND CT...VT...NH AND NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141608Z - 141815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM SRN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD THROUGH SRN NY AND INTO NWRN PA. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK CAP AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM NRN PA INTO SRN NY. ACTIVITY WILL BE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES FROM 25 TO 40 KT IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER WILL BE MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT ALSO APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM SE AND E CNTRL NY THROUGH PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41237833 42837523 43247130 41057216 40377444 40587735  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:22:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:22:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171340.j7HDeKcu029919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152208 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 152208Z - 160015Z ISOLATED HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA AND SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER POINT CONCEPTION CA. TSTMS ALREADY EVOLVING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS NV INTO NRN AZ AT THIS TIME...AND COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...AND LOCAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN NV AND INTERIOR SCNTRL/SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSOLATION ON FRINGE OF DRYSLOT EAST OF UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR CA INTO SRN NV. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 25-30 KTS/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...1.22 INCHES PER DRA 12Z RAOB AND 1.01 INCHES IN 18Z EDW RAOB. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 34751451 33611663 34391799 34651848 35051872 36491907 37501937 38411816 38841541 38711398 37341285 35881260 35051356 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 15:55:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 10:55:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171713.j7HHDGws024452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171712 SCZ000-GAZ000-171915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SC...ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171712Z - 171915Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY 19Z OVER CENTRAL/ERN SC AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO A SMALL CLUSTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN DMGG WIND THREAT POSSIBLE INTO ERN GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE AND WW. VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS SC...WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. AT MID LEVELS...DRY AIR WAS EVIDENT PER WV IMAGERY OVER SRN SC INTO ERN/SRN GA. INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NW OF CAE TO MYR WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 10-15 KTS. DESPITE WEAK AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMBIENT MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. GIVEN A FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY DEVELOP BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO SRN SC AND EVENTUALLY ERN GA. IF THIS BECOMES APPARENT BEFORE THEN...AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK AND WW ISSUANCE WOULD BE CONSIDERED. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 33867868 34237943 34378028 34378191 33738289 31938258 31438194 31358122 32028087 32867978 33167916 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 16:44:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 11:44:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171801.j7HI1ipk017972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171800 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-172000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171800Z - 172000Z THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN AT PRESENT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MVC OVER THE MO/AR BORDER. MODEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS/WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN NNEWD MOVEMENT OF A SFC TROUGH/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MKL IN WRN TN SEWD TO SW OF HUN IN NRN AL. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ATTM...AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW /PER LITTLE ROCK VWP WITH 20 KTS WLY FLOW FROM 2-5 KM/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED DMGG WINDS. GIVEN THE AMT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO WRN TN/NRN MS ATTM...A COLD POOL/ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE APPARENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 36168823 36038869 35498924 34988938 34468943 33958932 33778909 33538861 33318733 33638597 33958567 34478574 35048608 35578636 35968683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 16:46:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 11:46:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508171804.j7HI4Uxu019483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171803 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-171930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171803Z - 171930Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ND AND NRN SD...AS WELL AS WRN MN...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTED GRADUALLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN ND AND INTO WRN MN. AIR MASS FLOWING INTO AND ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK INHIBITION. EXPECT NEAR SFC-BASED TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIFT ACROSS THE REGION IS ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM WY. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELL STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45409935 45300139 44930267 45940202 47100135 47539933 47789575 47819456 47039392 46649384 45959358 45779568 45389683 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 18:59:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 13:59:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508172017.j7HKHJjP003684@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172016 NEZ000-SDZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172016Z - 172145Z PARTS OF SRN SD AND NRN/CNTRL NEB ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING SFC LOW CENTERED OVER WRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WEAKENING INHIBITION AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SHARPENING DRYLINE MAY AID STORM IMITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEGREE OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL LEAD TO SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS CONVECTION AS IT INCREASES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44330153 41030158 42109731 45419733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 19:07:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 14:07:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508172024.j7HKOwaT008462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172024 OKZ000-KSZ000-172230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NCENTRAL OK...SWRN/SCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172024Z - 172230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 22Z ACROSS FAR NWRN OK/SWRN KS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MDT-TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM PAWNEE AND BARTON COUNTIES OF SWRN KS SWD INTO WOODS/ALFALFA COUNTIES IN NWRN OK. A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF DDC INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING NEWD TOWARDS THE REGION OUT OF SRN CO/NM. ONE OF THESE IS LIKELY THE SOURCE OF EARLY INITIATION OF AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE NRN PANHANDLE. THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES COMBINED WITH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS AS MINIMAL /LESS THAN 25 J/KG/ MLCINH REMAINS. DESPITE MODEST WLY MID LEVEL WINDS /30 KTS PER GDA PROFILER/...LOW LEVEL SSELY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS WILL AID IN AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES /- 6 TO -8 DEG C AT 500 MB/ AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 70-74 DEG F RANGE SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS IS LIKELY TO EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THAT DO DEVELOP. ENOUGH UNCERTAINLY STILL EXISTS ON THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE TSTMS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING THAT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT CERTAIN. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38219749 38629816 38819863 38549936 38249942 37649976 36870007 36219984 36249951 36309848 36419744 36719672 37629678 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 19:28:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 14:28:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508172046.j7HKk9F0020952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172045 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172045Z - 172245Z AN ISOLATED LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS A SMALL PART OF EXTREME NERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS CELL. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN INITIATE EITHER AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORM...OR ALONG THE OUTFLOW IN ITS WAKE...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADY-STATE AND LONG-TRACK CELL HAS BEEN MOVING EAST NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ALMOST ALL DAY. EARLIER INDICATIONS WERE THAT THIS STORM WOULD MOVE AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE STORM INFLOW AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING CLEARING AHEAD OF THE STORM AND THIS HAS ALLOWED AIR MASS ACROSS NERN KS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. STORM APPEARS TO BE CYCLING THROUGH INTENSITY CHANGES BUT WAS MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAP VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AS IT NEARS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...LFC BELOW 1KM AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALSO SUGGEST A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39759482 39539487 39379499 39459557 39689622 40059606 40049566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 21:01:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 16:01:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508172219.j7HMJSBD011822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172218 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN SD / S CENTRAL AND SERN SD / W CENTRAL AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 727... VALID 172218Z - 180015Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST NE OF SURFACE LOW/INVOF WARM FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN ND...AND SWD ALONG TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO N CENTRAL/NERN SD -- INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 728. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK...FAVORABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ..GOSS.. 08/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46210166 47509858 47819715 47689499 46849442 45219883 44390184 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 01:06:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 20:06:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508180224.j7I2OSec000639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180222 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN ND / CENTRAL AND ERN SD / NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 727...728... VALID 180222Z - 180245Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW 727 AND 728...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES WITHIN WARM SECTOR...WHERE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE CONTINUES. UPPER VORT MAX CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS SD...SO EXPECT SURFACE TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- TO SHIFT EWD WITH TIME. WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY FURTHER E ACROSS FAR ERN SD INTO WRN MN...CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS -- MAINLY S OF THE SD/ND BORDER. ..GOSS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF... 45800009 47069744 47619640 48019612 48229474 46269467 45539672 42869736 42819940 44829962 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 12:44:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 07:44:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508181401.j7IE1afR011954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181400 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181400 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-181600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL WI...NRN IL...SRN ALM...NWRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181400Z - 181600Z POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS SRN WI. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER NRN IL AS ACTIVITY NOW NEAR MS RIVER MOVES E INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND INTENSIFIES. AREA AHEAD OF CONVECTION IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. BOW ECHO...OVER CENTRAL PORTION IL/WI BORDER AS OF 1345Z...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG AND JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT..ACROSS NERN IL...TOWARD SRN LM AND NWRN INDIANA. NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS N OF FRONT AND MERGERS WITH FOREGOING SHOWERS...HOWEVER FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD AS AIR MASS WARMS TO ITS S. LOW 80S SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS COMMONLY MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...EXPECTED IN NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS IL...SHOULD RAISE MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS. EXPECT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO INCREASE OVER NRN IL WITH APCH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/IA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHILE HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE IN SLY/SELY SFC FLOW NEAR FRONT. MODIFIED VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 150-300 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH...SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW MODES AS LIFTED PARCELS BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC BASED. ..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN... 40039128 40979092 42009007 42698930 42928853 42878793 42578699 42318645 42058622 41548631 40378722 39938947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 17:00:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 12:00:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508181817.j7IIHnN3027788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181816 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-181945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SRN LM...SERN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 729... VALID 181816Z - 181945Z MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD APPROXIMATELY 25-30 KT ACROSS NERN IL AND SRN LM. MEANWHILE TSTMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN RFD-VYS...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA...ATOP COLD POOL FROM MCS. LATTER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BECAUSE OF LIMITED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE AND EXTEND SWD INTO MORE OF WARM SECTOR...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 20Z EXPIRATION. IN ANY EVENT...AIR MASS FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH INCREASING HEATING AND NWD LIFT OF WARM FRONT AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL E OF WW. 729. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS ARE EVIDENT ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER NRN INDIANA...INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR REVERSAL OF WEAKENING TRENDS AND REINVIGORATION OF SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS FARTHER E. BACK W...CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY REINFORCED/RELOCATED FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER SWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT/MOTION. ANOTHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION REGARDING THAT LATER SCENARIO...EXTENDING WWD INTO IA...WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AFTER SOME MORE EXAMINATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40288677 40308757 40478855 41118919 41658919 41768880 41668725 41918640 42238577 42428472 41548478 40558567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 17:49:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 12:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508181907.j7IJ7J76022652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181905 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-182100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...ERN WY AND NWRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181905Z - 182100Z TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EITHER ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NERN/ECENTRAL WY INTO WCENTRAL SD AND/OR MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL WY WHILE INTENSIFYING. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...OVERALL MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINS NNWLY...MODERATE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/ INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NRN BLACK HILLS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT CAPPED EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS /LOWER ELEVATIONS/...WITH OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH PER RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 21Z. WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 1000-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE /PER RECENT FCST SOUNDINGS AND MBW PROFILER DATA/ ISOLATED SVR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. FARTHER WEST...BASED ON RAWS/ASOS REPORTS...THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NRN NATRONA COUNTY WY ESEWD TO DAWES COUNTY IN THE NEB PANHANDLE. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL HEATING/MINIMAL CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ADDITION...HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE MTNS MAY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER ERN WY INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS IN ERN WY/NWRN NEB PANHANDLE BASED ON CURRENT DEWPT FIELDS INDICATE AROUND 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE SHOULD EXIST BY 21Z. WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44870264 44720476 44590609 44390682 43690699 42680651 42080540 41720423 41900328 42380269 43650181 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 17:52:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 12:52:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508181910.j7IJAKHB024513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181909 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-182045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL IA...NWRN IL...SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI...EXTREME SERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181909Z - 182045Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING GUSTS...TORNADOES AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW OVER SERN MN -- N RST AS OF 19Z -- FCST TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS SWRN WI INTO OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY MORNING MCS. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD AND WRN PORTION OF OLD OUTFLOW POOL WILL FAVORABLY MODIFY. 80S SFC TEMPS AND 70S DEW POINTS -- EVIDENT IN WARM SECTOR ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. THOSE VALUES -- DERIVED FROM OBSERVED REGIONAL VWP DATA...ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY SHORT TERM RUC ANALYSES AND FCSTS...AND SUPPORT SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT PARTICULARLY NEAR WARM FRONT. FARTHER S...ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED VEERING OF SFC FLOW OVER MUCH OF IA SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LIMITING CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...HOWEVER SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SERN MN...0-1 KM SRH APPEARS SMALL BECAUSE OF WEAKER FLOW...HOWEVER VERY LOCALIZED AREA OF JUXTAPOSITION EXISTS BETWEEN FAVORABLE SFC VORTICITY MAX AND LOW LEVEL CAPE FIELD. POSSIBILITY OF NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THAT REGIME SHIFTS EWD ACROSS REMAINDER EXTREME SERN MN AND LSE REGION INTO SWRN WI. ..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 41189032 41939139 42939212 43919236 44279184 44479098 44469000 44378957 44098911 43708862 43128861 42498873 41408896 41098934 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 19:11:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 14:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508182028.j7IKSbvG004445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182027 NDZ000-SDZ000-182230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD...FAR SCENTRAL/SERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182027Z - 182230Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 23Z ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY OF CENTRAL SD NWD INTO FAR SCENTRAL ND. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR SCENTRAL ND/NCENTRAL SD ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH AND OCCLUDED LOW CENTER INTERSECTION. AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MLCINH LESS THAN 25 J/KG. GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY OF CENTRAL SD/SCENTRAL ND BY 23Z. AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA. THUS THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED THROUGH THAT TIME AND THUS WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HRS. AFTER 00Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT GREATER ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL AND THUS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46739951 46530033 45670095 44840096 44000069 43859963 44219883 45569890 46509894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 20:33:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 15:33:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508182150.j7ILojVi016683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182149 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-182345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB...NWRN/NCENTRAL MO AND WCENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182149Z - 182345Z ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY 00Z FROM NERN KS INTO WCENTRAL IL ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MODERATE SHEAR SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE LIKELY. AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WW IN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATED MDT-TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANHATTAN KS ENEWD TO NORTH OF KIRKSVILLE MO. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. MODERATE /30-35KTS/ WLY MID LVL FLOW PER REGIONAL PROFILERS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY COMBINED WITH SELY-ENELY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELL STORMS. DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE BNDY LAYER...HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MODERATE LOW LVL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 PER LATHROP PROFILER/ AND RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND STORM MOTIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL. GIVEN SUSTAINED SFC-850 CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...APPROACHING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MINIMAL CINH REMAINING...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY 23Z. ..CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40259046 40599083 40369483 40299589 40119664 39649708 38989705 38759706 38689676 39029515 39599049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 21:31:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 16:31:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508182248.j7IMmpXV010295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182247 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-182345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 730... VALID 182247Z - 182345Z SEVERE STORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL PERSISTS ACROSS SWRN AND S CENTRAL WI/WITHIN WW 730...AND SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW SE OF LSE...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD/ESEWD TO THE LK MI LAKESHORE N OF MKE. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEAR AND S OF FRONT...WHERE 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL WI ATTM -- WITH STRONGEST STORM NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN SAUK COUNTY TOWARD SWRN COLUMBIA/NRN DANE COUNTIES. THIS STORM IN PARTICULAR HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGE. WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCLS...EXPECT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SERN WI. ..GOSS.. 08/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX... 44598987 44238865 43848769 42538779 42489127 43359138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 23:11:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 18:11:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190029.j7J0T26a012881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190028 WIZ000-ILZ000-190200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 730... VALID 190028Z - 190200Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD INTO WW 732. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS 19/02Z EXPIRATION. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA SHOW VORT MAX -- AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI ATTM. STRONGEST CONVECTION -- INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELL CROSSING SRN JEFFERSON COUNTY ATTM -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD INTO SERN WI/WW 732. WITH WINDS VEERED BEHIND MAIN CONVECTION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LESS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION / TORNADOES ACROSS WW 730. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN WAKE OF ONGOING STORMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PROVE CORRECT...WW 730 MAY BE CANCELLED BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN... 44658933 44688911 42488905 42528983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 23:43:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 18:43:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190101.j7J11BRL024751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190100 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB...NRN MO/FAR SRN IA AND WCENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 732... VALID 190100Z - 190300Z SEVERAL SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD POSING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ACROSS MAINLY WRN HALF OF WW 732 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP SLIGHTLY NWD OUT OF WW 732 INTO FAR SRN IA...BUT OVERALL NWD EXTENT OF SVR SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY FOCUSED SSWLY INFLOW...THAT ANOTHER WW INTO SRN IA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF WW 732 INTO NCENTRAL/CENTRAL KS...BUT SIMILARLY THE SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA EITHER. 00Z TOPEKA AND LINCOLN IL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG. FOCUSED LIFT ALONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SLN ENEWD TO WCENTRAL IL SHOULD OFFSET INITIAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND SUPPORTING SVR THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT EITHER A BACKBUILDING MCS INTO THE MKC METRO AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT WOULD REACH WCENTRAL IL TOWARDS 05Z. AREA VWP/S SUGGEST THAT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE LEFT SPLITS MAY MOVE INTO FAR SRN IA...OUT OF WW 732. HOWEVER...LIMITED ENOUGH COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SO ANOTHER WW IS NOT EXPECTED. ..CROSBIE.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40079669 38759670 39388943 40688941 40579295 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 01:12:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 20:12:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190229.j7J2ToNP023682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190228 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-190400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI / SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 732... VALID 190228Z - 190400Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SERN WI -- MAINLY OVER SERN PORTIONS OF WW 732. THREAT MAY SHIFT INTO SWRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A SMALL TORNADO WATCH. SUPERCELL NOW OVER RACINE COUNTY REMAINS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SERN WI/WW 732 ATTM. THIS STORM SHOULD MOVE OVER LK MI WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AFTER WHICH THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS WW 732 SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI -- INVOF WARM FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY JUST S OF MKG TO NEAR TOL -- REMAINS VERY MOIST /DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70/. DEGREE OF MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS. WITH LATEST GRR WSR-88D VWP CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR BENEATH MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT...CONDITIONS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. THOUGH VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR GRB SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD/WELL N OF SRN LOWER MI...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT ALONG WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX... 43968907 43968792 43028560 42128476 41748483 41638743 42648852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 01:36:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 20:36:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190254.j7J2s9N9032144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190253 INZ000-ILZ000-190400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL / INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190253Z - 190400Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER IL AND MOVE EWD INTO INDIANA. A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 00Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATES STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS SHOW STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ENOUGH INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS. GIVEN LARGE MOISTURE CONTENT AND POOR LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..JEWELL.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38838667 39418956 39989024 41058975 40848796 40648574 40288508 38978506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 02:58:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 21:58:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190416.j7J4GDfa026492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190415 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS / EXTREME SERN NEB / NRN MO / PARTS OF W CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 731... VALID 190415Z - 190515Z WIDESPREAD STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...THOUGH STORM INTENSITY -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING. NEW WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVOLVING/SURGING SWD ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN AND N CENTRAL MO...NOW WELL S OF STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ONLY SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR TO EXIST OVER NERN MO...ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS BOWING CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS TO POSE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 733 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE...STRONGEST STORMS FURTHER W -- N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN INCH OR SO IN DIAMETER...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ASSUMING SCENARIO CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...NEW WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED UPON THE 19/05Z EXPIRATION OF WW 731. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40079667 40689044 40189077 39559057 39488953 38689664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 04:36:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 23:36:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190554.j7J5s96m022224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190552 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-190715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN IND...SWRN OH AND NWRN/NCNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190552Z - 190715Z THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONG TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS...GLANCING PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. THE LLJ HAS RESPONDED WITH VWP/PROFILERS INDICATING 30-40 KTS OF WSWLY FLOW ARCING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH VLY. RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A BROAD BAND OF TSTMS FROM CNTRL IL INTO SRN IND. PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS EMANATE FROM A RESERVOIR OF MODEST CAPE SITUATED ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND RECENT CNTRL IL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS. PROFILERS/VWP SUGGEST A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GRTLKS TROUGH...FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO BACKBUILD TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS. BUT...POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR COLD POOLS TO ELONGATE ESEWD WITH THE MEAN FLOW. THOUGH THE FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT...SET-UP DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE AXIS FROM CNTRL/SERN IND INTO SWRN OH/NWRN KY THIS MORNING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE RATHER WARM MID-LEVELS/WEAK CLOUD-BEARING VERTICAL SHEAR MAY MITIGATE HAIL PRODUCTION SOMEWHAT. ..RACY.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 40298654 40218345 38218384 38438530 38668659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 04:51:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 23:51:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190609.j7J69J5O025660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190608 MIZ000-190745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 734... VALID 190608Z - 190745Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL LWR MI. TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE WARM FRONT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ARE CLEARLY ROTATING PER GAYLORD RADAR. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NERN LOWER MI/THUMB AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS RATHER COOL AND POTENTIALLY STABLE OVER THESE AREAS...SUGGESTING A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES THAN FARTHER S/W. NONETHELESS...VWP SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURNING VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND IF A TSTMS CAN ROOT TO NEAR THE SURFACE...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF TSTMS INTO NERN LWR MI/THUMB AREA FOR A POTENTIAL SMALL TORNADO WATCH. OTHERWISE...TORNADO WATCH 734 CONTINUES. ..RACY.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42168595 44798656 44808236 43408225 43208417 42128410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 08:08:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 03:08:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508190925.j7J9Pv9u013850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190924 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL AND WCNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733... VALID 190924Z - 191030Z SMALL MCS THAT EVOLVED OVER CNTRL IL EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SEWD INTO SRN IND. PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF VWP/PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT THE H9-H85 JET HAS VEERED TO A MORE WLY TRAJECTORY AS THE GRTLKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES FARTHER FROM THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN KY...SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS JUST S/SW OF KCVG. MEANWHILE...TSTMS ACROSS ECNTRL IL AND WCNTRL IND WERE WEAKENING...DUE IN PART TO THE SHIFT IN THETA-E ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS WCNTRL-SRN IND INTO NWRN KY AND EXTREME SWRN OH...IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREATS HAVE DIMINISHED. AS SOON AS THE TSTMS CLEAR THE VALID PORTIONS OF WS733...THE WW WILL CANCELLED EARLY. OTHERWISE...A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..RACY.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT...ILX... 38978795 39718760 40498747 40298674 39638644 39328496 38888392 38528403 38288445 38368560 38688690 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 11:00:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 06:00:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191217.j7JCHTcU031988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191216 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-191315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...NERN OH...WRN PA AND NRN WV PNHDL CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 191216Z - 191315Z 13Z SWODY1 WILL INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK BASED ON TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NY...NERN OH...WRN PA AND THE NRN WV PNHDL. METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING WITH THE 13Z SWODY1 ISSUANCE. ..RACY.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43337840 41867849 40717879 40117947 39938085 40548155 43168107 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 14:39:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 09:39:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191556.j7JFurhZ012913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191555 MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-191800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL KS...SWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 191555Z - 191800Z GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION MAY WARRANT WW WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH INITIAL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. VIS IMAGERY AND 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD/QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MO WWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NWRN KS...CENTERED NEAR I-70...WITH WEAK MESOLOW BETWEEN SLN-CNK. ELEVATED TSTM COMPLEX BUILDING ACROSS NRN KS -- OVER WRN PORTION OF THAT BOUNDARY -- WILL MOVE NEWD AND AFFECT KS/NEB BORDER REGION BETWEEN MCK-CNK THROUGH 18Z. OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC-850 MB FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM SERN SD SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN NEB. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS FCST TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM BOTH REGIONS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME MERGING POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT BEFORE ABOUT 18Z WILL BE OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. THEREAFTER -- AS ANY CONVECTION REMAINING OVER REGION INGESTS MORE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND BECOMES MORE SFC-BASED -- DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 8 DEG C/KM MEAN LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG ATTM. PRECONVECTIVE/PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS AND CENTRAL/SERN NEB WILL BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR SFC BASED TSTMS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING AWAY FROM CLOUDS/PRECIP...70S F DEW POINTS AND 7-8 DEG C MEAN LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES RISING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK FLOW...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEARS OF 40-50 KT ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38379868 39049978 39490029 39930091 40330065 41289897 41729818 41779743 41539658 41029599 40569573 40039573 39079618 38239723 38239830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 16:33:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 11:33:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191753.j7JHr4Ej011285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191749 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN IL...SRN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL/NERN KY...SRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191749Z - 191915Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTMS FROM SERN IL ESEWD TOWARD ERN KY. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE IN LOW LEVELS. COMBINATION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS AND 30-40 KT WNW FLOW ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY TSTMS THAT MAY DEVIATE SEWD TO SWD OFF MEAN WIND VECTOR. ADJUSTED VWP OBSERVATIONS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG...AND ABOUT 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY ERODE CAP...SUPPORTING EITHER NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SFC-BASED TSTMS. DESPITE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH SRN EXTENT TOWARD TN/KY BORDER BY WEAKENING FLOW AND WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...LEADING TO DIMINISHMENT BOTH OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALOFT. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 39168796 39618648 39648572 39748419 39438271 39038235 38348254 37748345 37618453 37668590 38218745 38468808 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 17:16:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 12:16:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191833.j7JIXmBV002675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191832 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191832Z - 192030Z MONITORING FOR INDICATIONS OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AT 1830Z...STRONG TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS SW ONTARIO JUST WEST OF THE HAMILTON/TORONTO CANADA AREAS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/BUILD SWD ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/DEEPEN OVER NE OH/LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME...LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NW OH. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST ALONG EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN PA INTO WRN NY...WHERE MAX PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED. AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 18Z PIT RAOB...WHILE VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED TO SLY. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE ENLARGEMENT OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43367858 43577710 43467705 42787705 42427736 42227761 41857869 40097898 40007916 40078094 40318222 40588238 40838230 41648203 42337976 42827917 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 17:34:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 12:34:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191851.j7JIpd4d011638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191850 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...NWRN MO...SERN NEB...SWRN/S-CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 191850Z - 192045Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SFC-BASED SEVERE TSTMS FROM NERN KS NEWD TOWARD PORTIONS S-CENTRAL IA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON -- SE OF LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP NOW OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AS OF 1830Z...GENERALLY FROM LEAVENWORTH COUNTY WWD TO BETWEEN CNK-RSL. THIS IS INVOF DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER NERN KS...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED AS A RESULT OF EARLIER/DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER. INFLOW-LAYER TRAJECTORIES SHOULD EMANATE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER OVER E-CENTRAL KS THAT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. MODIFIED 18Z TOP/OAX RAOBS INDICATE SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 90S...AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S...COMBINE WITH 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. RUC APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING MLCAPE BECAUSE OF EXCESSIVELY MIXED AND TOO-DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY N OF BOUNDARY. BUT WHEN MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY...ITS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD EVEN LARGER BUOYANCY APCHG 5000 J/KG. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE...PER LATEST NERN KS/SERN NEB VWP/PROFILER DATA. HOWEVER...STRONGER/30-40 KT FLOW ALOFT AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST RISK FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND/OR BOW ECHOES TO FORM...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39169471 39219619 38939812 39089858 39389856 40059728 40669582 41079434 41029326 40459247 39689270 39389323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 18:38:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 13:38:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508191955.j7JJtiMt015765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191952 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191952 KSZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191952Z - 192045Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INVOF ENE-WSW ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE MESOLOW INVOF FORD/HODGEMAN COUNTY LINE WITH CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS GBD...SLN AND MHK AREAS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS N OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL. SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE ALONG BOUNDARY...GIVEN INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPES 2000-4000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS RELATED TO 1. MIDLEVEL WINDS 35-45 KT -- PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY AND 2. ENELY/NELY SFC WINDS ALONG AND N OF IT...RESULTING IN ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS WITHIN 15-20 NM S OF BOUNDARY BEND NWWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC FORCING NE OF SFC LOW...AND INDICATE ENHANCED 0-3 KM AGL SHEAR EXTENDS SOMEWHAT SWD INTO STRONGLY HEATED WARM SECTOR. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38249738 37839811 37549921 37379975 37480019 37950026 39340054 39849996 39909789 39739600 38809607  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 19:14:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 14:14:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508192032.j7JKW1dI005070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192030 MNZ000-IAZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN INTO NCNTRL/NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192030Z - 192230Z MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION FROM SRN MN INTO NW/NCNTRL IA. PROVIDED DEVELOPMENT/CONTINUAL DESTABILIZATION...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING...RELATIVELY THICK CLOUD COVER HAS THUS FAR HINDERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN INTO NRN IA AS OF 2030Z. NNE-SSW ORIENTED CELLULAR CU FIELD IS EVIDENT ALONG/JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MN INTO NW IA AT THIS TIME...WHILE PEEKS OF CELLULAR CU ALSO NOTED OVER SCNTRL MN BENEATH CANOPY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS...NEAR WEAK SFC LOW ANALYZED NORTH OF MKT. AS CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING CINH. AMBIENT VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH 40-55 KT MID LEVEL FLOW PER WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER/FSD WSR-88D VAD/18Z OAX RAOB. GIVEN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION/BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN MN INTO NW/CNTRL IA. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING ERN NEB/FAR WCNTRL IA TSTMS MAY ALSO EXPAND NEWD THROUGH NRN IA/SRN MN. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42569377 41829603 42499621 44239487 45379420 45419312 44669277 43909240 43089283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 19:52:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 14:52:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508192110.j7JLA87C026820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192109 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-192315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO/SRN IL/SW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192109Z - 192315Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NE MO/SRN IL INTO SW IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SHOULD STORM COVERAGE PROVE SUFFICIENT. AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS EXTENDING WNW-ESE FROM FAR NE MO/SRN IL INTO SW IN. AN ISOLD STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED EAST OF STL AS OF 21Z. AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION AND MID/UPPER 90S SFC TEMPS/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE/WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39509199 40279184 40349122 39508872 38808605 37918647 38118774 38508987 38849064 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 21:24:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 16:24:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508192242.j7JMg4ST001391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192241 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN KS / NWRN MO / FAR SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736... VALID 192241Z - 200045Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS. LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATES NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL KS...CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION. SUPERCELL NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN ELLSWORTH/NERN RICE COUNTIES TOWARD SALINE/MCPHERSON COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE RIDING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY. AS THIS STORM CONTINUES EWD...THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST. MEANWHILE...SECOND SUPERCELL OVER GEARY/MORRIS COUNTIES ALSO APPEARS TO BE RIDING EWD ALONG BOUNDARY...AND MAY LIKEWISE POSE A TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS WW...A MORE LIMITED THREAT ALSO EXISTS EWD INTO MO -- AND WWD INTO WRN KS WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CONTINUES OVER GREELEY COUNTY. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39249869 39689763 40129443 38619441 37180027 37990026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 21:55:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 16:55:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508192313.j7JNDDBv012485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192312 NYZ000-PAZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/NW PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735... VALID 192312Z - 200045Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 735 CONTINUES FOR WRN NY/NW PA UNTIL 02Z. THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES CONTINUES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A SLIVER OF UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS PRIMARILY INVOF LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE...WITH MODIFIED 18Z BUF RAOB SUGGESTIVE OF 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS FAR WRN NY/FAR NW PA. IN SPITE OF THE MARGINAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 735...AMBIENT FLOW FIELDS NEVERTHELESS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/UPDRAFT ROTATION. IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN 200 MS/S2 -- OWING TO BACKED S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43017946 43497916 43657875 43667758 43637678 43167693 42367747 41707812 41227858 41287936 41378037 41758040 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 23:13:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 18:13:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508200030.j7K0UgtS002929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200029 NYZ000-PAZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / NWRN PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735... VALID 200029Z - 200100Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS WW. WW MAY BE CANCELLED BY 20/01Z. STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS -- AS REVEALED BY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS -- REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NY/WRN PA AWAY FROM THE ERIE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. WITH MAIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS NOW MOVING INTO THIS MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THIS REGION. STRONGEST STORM -- NOW MOVING SWD INTO CLARION/JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN PA -- IS NOW S OF WW...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH TIME AS SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE STORM IS ORIGINATING FROM WITHIN MORE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TEMPERATURES/ ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS...WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43697805 43477740 41787869 41197933 41638008 42287905 43407833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 00:44:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 19:44:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508200202.j7K222fv029953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200201 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-200300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0901 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL INTO ERN KS / PARTS OF W CENTRAL AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736... VALID 200201Z - 200300Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW...THOUGH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- OVER E CENTRAL KS/W CENTRAL MO -- ARE NOW BEING UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS DECREASING. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORM CLUSTERS NOW APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL HAIL...AS WELL AS LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WHERE SOME TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL HAIL...THOUGH THREAT IS LIMITED DUE PRIMARILY TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -4 C/. WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME...NEW WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM UPON THE 20/03Z EXPIRATION OF WW 736. ..GOSS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37970026 38969674 39569532 39899414 38529436 36840030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 15:15:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 10:15:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201632.j7KGWej8022043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201631 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...PORTIONS ERN/SRN INDIANA...NRN KY...EXTREME SERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201631Z - 201800Z TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WIND PRODUCERS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WHERE WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PROSPECTIVE INFLOW AIR OVER INDIANA/OH/NRN KY SOON WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT...POSSIBLY DERECHO CALIBER. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM NERN INDIANA SWWD ROUGHLY ALONG HUF...MVN...CGI LINE...MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 35 KT. SWRN PORTION OF THIS LINE OVER IL BECOMES COLOCATED WITH PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...STILL CHARACTERIZED BY SFC PRESSURE RISES TO ITS W. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE DEEPENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SRN IL PORTION OF THIS BAND...AND ALSO OVER SEGMENT NNE IND. DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN BAND AND MOVE INTO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS RISING INTO LOW 90S F AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S. DESPITE WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS...VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE YIELDS DEEPLY BUOYANT PROFILE WITH VERY WEAK CINH...MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND DCAPE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG. GIVEN MIDLEVEL WINDS UP TO 60 KT -- PER WLC PROFILER -- AND AT LEAST 40 KT ALOFT OVER MUCH OF AREA...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EPISODE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 38028578 37878685 37798790 37898858 38168875 38668794 39338677 39868580 40578514 41608468 41718396 41608289 41658144 40908105 39628154 38848255 38208400 38068532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 16:27:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 11:27:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201744.j7KHiWfS017587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201743 KSZ000-OKZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE/SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NE OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 201743Z - 201945Z HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1.5 IN/HR...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SE/SCNTRL KS...AND PERHAPS INTO EXTREME NE OK. SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS CORRIDOR OF ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JUST S/SE OF WICHITA NEAR WELLINGTON KS...E/NE TO NEAR THE CHANUTE KS VICINITY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENCE OF VERY COLD -60 TO -65 C CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER FAR SE KS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LAMONT OK/VICI OK PROFILERS SUGGEST A PERSISTENCE OF MODEST SWLY WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH MESOSCALE COLD/BUBBLE HIGH ACROSS FAR SCNTRL/SE KS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LIKELY REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS FAR SCNTRL KS AND SUBSEQUENT ESE PROPAGATION. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH INTO MID AFTERNOON AS LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL SWLY TRAJECTORIES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ..GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37569773 37649688 37649571 37639470 37229465 36799649 36819773 37409787 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 17:19:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 12:19:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201836.j7KIaurU003284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201835 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AND FAR NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201835Z - 202030Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLD LARGE HAIL INCREASING ALONG E-W CORRIDOR FROM FAR SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AND FAR NE OK. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE FROM FAR SRN IL/WRN KY WESTWARD INTO FAR NE OK...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUGGEST 2000-2750 J/KG AVAILABLE MLCAPE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...HASKELL OK/CONWAY MO/BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILERS REPRESENTATIVE OF ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW WIND PROFILES THROUGH 6 KM AND AROUND 20 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MILD TEMPS ALOFT...ISOLD LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD SUFFICIENT STORM ORGANIZATION BECOME APPARENT. ..GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35329269 35249434 35849500 36399523 36799335 37259197 37509095 37938824 37078809 36738844 35939027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 17:55:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 12:55:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201912.j7KJCWmi015488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201911 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN INDIANA...NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 737...738... VALID 201911Z - 202045Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT 1845Z FROM CRAWFORD/HARDIN COUNTIES OH SWWD ACROSS SWRN CORNER INDIANA. ALSO...TCU EVIDENT NE OF FWA MAY DELAY CLEARING OF WW OVER NWRN OH...IN EVENT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES EWD. ALSO...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER ERN OH AND PA...REQUIRING WW 738 ISSUANCE. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 18Z ILN RAOB ILLUSTRATES EFFECTS OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT/MOISTURE OFFSETTING WARMTH ALOFT -- WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE DESPITE 500 MB TEMPS ONLY -3 DEG C. MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. ALSO...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAWRENCE BOUNTY PA WWD THROUGH WAYNE COUNTY OH. ALSO EVIDENT IS WELL DEFINED THETAE GRADIENT NEAR LINE FROM HLG-CAK CORRESPONDING TO ERN EDGE OF LOW-MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. THIS FEATURE INTERSECTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR CAK...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY STRONG HEATING TO MAKE CINH NEGLIGIBLE AND BOOST MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 37898461 37868774 41588361 41758168 42018083 42288017 42167991 41767955 41347903 40867879 40337897 39847960 39588037 39548091 39568230 38838287 38348349 37968453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 18:05:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 13:05:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508201923.j7KJNJBU019092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201921 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-202115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/FAR SRN KS INTO ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 201921Z - 202115Z POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL ACROSS NRN OK/FAR SRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2.0 IN/HR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OK. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG NEARLY STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR ALVA OK TO BETWEEN PONCA CITY/STILLWATER...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TULSA METRO AREA. MASS CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESULT IN INCREASING AREAL TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS NRN OK/FAR SCNTRL KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AMBIENT AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG MAXIMIZED ACROSS NCNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE LARGELY SUGGESTIVE OF LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION...RELATIVELY GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF NCNTRL/NE OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED RATES TO 1.5-2.O IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...NAMELY ACROSS NRN OK. ..GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37099789 37039738 36619568 35719599 35659755 35629820 35119913 35290013 36210083 37110080 37459905 37289844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 18:50:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 13:50:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508202007.j7KK7OJe001072@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202006 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-202130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KY...SRN OH...WRN/CENTRAL WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202006Z - 202130Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT AND/OR EXPAND EWD FROM WW 737...AND S OF WW 738. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THIS AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS OVER OH/WV BORDER REGION NWD ACROSS PORTIONS EXISTING WWS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...GREATLY WEAKENING CINH AND SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AND MOVE IN FROM W. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL AIR IS RELATIVELY WARM -- 3-4 DEG C BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS -- DEEPLY BUOYANT PROFILE IS EVIDENT WITH MLCAPES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. DEEP ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER MAY RESTRICT AMOUNT/SIZE OF HAIL REACHING SFC. HOWEVER...DAMAGING GUSTS ARE A CONCERN GIVEN SIZE OF BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. EXPECT 0-6 KM SHEAR TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN...SE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH...AND UP TO ABOUT 100 DEG OF VEERING IS EVIDENT IN THAT LAYER BASED ON VWP FROM JKL AND RLX RADARS. VWP/PROFILER TIME SERIES INDICATE SPEED MAX EARLIER OVER NRN INDIANA IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN OH ATTM. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...PRIND KINEMATIC SUPPORT WILL EXIST FOR WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER DISCUSSION AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 37968435 38688301 39298288 39708248 39668108 39398022 38918007 38528028 37848107 37888378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 20:09:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 15:09:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508202127.j7KLRLVe028144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202126 IAZ000-NEZ000-202300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202126Z - 202300Z A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH ANY ISOLD TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MDT TOWERING CU EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IN W-E CORRIDOR ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ALLIANCE NEB TO ORD NEB TO JUST NORTH OF THE OMAHA AREA. AMIDST MOST VIGOROUS CU FIELD...TSTM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER JUST NORTH OF THE OMAHA METRO. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THIS REGION REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE GIVEN WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT/MASS CONVERGENCE...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS DEPICT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF AVAILABLE MLCAPE AMIDST RELATIVELY MINIMAL CINH. FAIRBURY/NELIGH NEB PROFILERS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OMAHA WSR-88D VAD SUGGEST AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. OVERALL ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE OF SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF... 42139571 42049451 41529453 41019633 41099836 41550134 41860160 42140124 42129971 42069756 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 21:57:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 16:57:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508202314.j7KNETWK029024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202310 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KY...SRN AND ERN OH...WRN AND NRN WV...SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738...739... VALID 202310Z - 210045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS ACROSS WW 739. STRONGER STORMS MOVING THROUGH SWRN PA ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT OF WW 738...AND SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS S CNTRL PA. HOWEVER...OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AND THEREFORE ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STRONG STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN PA AT AROUND 25 KT. THE LEADING STORMS ARE NEARING THE ERN PARTS OF WW 738 AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH S CNTRL PA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. KINEMATIC PROFILES AND 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS WW 738. WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR FARTHER S SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS WITHIN WW 739. DAMAGING WIND REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE HAIL THREAT IS LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 01Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 08/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 38028428 40488055 41057768 40227671 39567769 39077983 37898231  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 15:09:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 10:09:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508211627.j7LGRERY016437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211626 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-211830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VT...NH...MA...CT...RI...SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NY...SWRN MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211626Z - 211830Z THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH 19Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...IN ENVIRONMENT OF AT LEAST MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR. MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING GUSTS...ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IN 1630Z OUTLOOK AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT -- BETTER DEFINED IN ISODROSOTHERMAL THAN ISOTHERMAL FIELDS GIVEN DIABATIC HEATING -- FROM NERN NY SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN PA...PRECEDED BY SFC TROUGH AND WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE FROM WRN LONG ISLAND NEWD ROUGHLY UP CT RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NRN VT SEWD ACROSS EXTREME SWRN MAINE OFFSHORE MA. FRONTS AND TROUGH EACH SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS REGION. THERMAL AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM DE VALLEY NEWD TOWARD CT VALLEY OF VT/NH BORDER...MEETING A MOIST AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM LONG ISLAND NWD UP CT VALLEY NEAR TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON INSOLATION AND DEW POINTS 70S F YIELDING MLCAPES THAT RANGE FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TO 1500 J/KG AROUND SRN CT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RAOB ANALYSES INDICATE SERN EDGE OF BOTH COOLING AND DRYING ALOFT SHIFTING INTO REGION...AIDING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. NEGATIVE FACTOR IS VEERING SFC FLOW AND RESULTING LIMITATIONS ON CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...CINH SHOULD BE REMOVED THROUGH DIABATIC HEATING ALONE...SO WEAKER CONVERGENCE MAY SERVE TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS MORE DISCRETE. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH STRONG WLY COMPONENT. SPEED SHEAR STRENGTHENS WITH NWD EXTENT...NEARLY INVERSE TO TREND OF BUOYANCY. 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN PREFRONTAL AIR MASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 55 KT OVER NRN PORTIONS NH/VT. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 44667315 44947266 44967212 44757144 44377101 44067071 43747065 43287073 42957087 42367103 41867093 41497140 40977223 40757262 40657332 40757364 41197383 41917424 42647386 43907312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 18:02:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 13:02:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508211920.j7LJKJvW009571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211918 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 211918Z - 212115Z AT LEAST AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NCNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE ATTRIBUTABLE TO MODEST CELL MOTIONS/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/TOWER COINCIDENT WITH WNW-ESE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SW IA. IN NORTHEAST NEB...ONE STRONG STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN ANTELOPE/FAR NRN BOONE COUNTIES OF 19Z. A FEW OTHER STORMS ALSO NOTED AMIDST POST-FRONTAL REGIME JUST EAST OF YANKTON SD...APPARENTLY TIED TO SUBTLE IMPULSE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 3000 J/KG MLCAPE IN PRESENCE OF VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AIRMASS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SW IA. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MODEST/ERRATIC WIND PROFILES SHOULD TEND TO HINDER INDIVIDUAL STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AS REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF STORMS MATERIALIZE. ..GUYER.. 08/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42750064 42649810 42719625 42129477 41369359 40599358 40319512 40559787 40979937 41870076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 16:21:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 11:21:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508221738.j7MHcWFe002814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221737 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221737 SCZ000-GAZ000-221930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SC..ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221737Z - 221930Z A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST BRIEFLY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS SRN SC AND ERN GA. IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS MOVING WWD ACROSS SRN SC EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WHERE EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR EXISTS...THE STRONG INSTABILITY...HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. ..BROYLES.. 08/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... 34478182 33798286 32628350 31168325 31128208 32288061 33118026 34188078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 16:58:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 11:58:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508221816.j7MIGFD1032003@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221815 KSZ000-COZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221815Z - 222015Z A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND ISOLATED. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NE CO. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCNTRL CO AND MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 1000 J/KG AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER SRN CO WILL MOVE EWD TODAY GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM ABOUT 20 KT TO ABOUT 30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BY THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 08/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39250489 40160363 40120268 39770219 38750186 37930237 37480346 37650441 38230533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 03:04:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 22:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508230421.j7N4LZYD003031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230420 KSZ000-OKZ000-230545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740... VALID 230420Z - 230545Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SQUALL LINE MOVING SEWD THROUGH SWRN KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. LATE THIS EVENING... A SQUALL LINE WITH A COLD POOL AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES JUST W OF DODGE CITY CONTINUES SEWD AT AROUND 36 KT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST 20-25 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY ABOVE 2 KM IS ENHANCING THE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND LIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE. THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROFILE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO ROTATE...AND SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUE SEWD ALONG THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SWRN INTO S CNTRL KS AND INTO NWRN OK. ..DIAL.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA... 37079867 36990132 37470113 38439926 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 04:39:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 23:39:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508230556.j7N5uVXG005542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230555 OKZ000-KSZ000-230700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS AND NWRN-NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740... VALID 230555Z - 230700Z LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS SWRN KS APPEARS TO HAVE A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES. TSTMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK...ALONG THE NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SWLY LLJ. TSTM CLUSTER NEAR/N OF KEND WAS BEGINNING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE AS A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED. THERE ARE FAVORABLE SIGNALS THAT SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL KS/NCNTRL-NERN OK THROUGH DAYBREAK. WNWLY FLOW REGIME IN THE MID-LEVELS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AOB 30 KTS. BUT...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS APPEARED TO HEAT CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY SUGGESTING AN AMPLE AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY. AS COLD POOLS ACCUMULATE AND SURGE ESEWD...MODEST STORM RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST STRONG TSTM GENERATION. DESPITE A COUPLE OF NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER /TIME OF DAY AND RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW/...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS NON-ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER WW DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF SCNTRL KS AND NRN/CNTRL OK. ..RACY.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38169900 37409562 35209638 35759804 36439983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 16:58:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 11:58:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508231815.j7NIFFZo000981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231814 GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN...NRN AL...NRN GA...AND NERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231814Z - 231945Z ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES AND SRN TN. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. COVERAGE OF T-STORMS SHOULD PEAK WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAX BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE GULF COAST WWD INTO CENTRAL TX...WITH WLY 15-25KT 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND SOUTH OF DECAYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W FROM FAR NERN MS INTO FAR NRN GA. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT 18Z. MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS MOST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. CELLS WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 5-10KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 33748584 33938830 34388966 34958939 35228895 35418825 35548753 35458517 35078398 34238313 33848318 33758364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 17:09:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 12:09:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508231827.j7NIRDTo009012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231825 COZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231825Z - 232030Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND NE CO BY MID-AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN CO IN RESPONSE TO AN EWD APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS LIFT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ENCOUNTERING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ALONG WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL CO. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER NE CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...GJT... 40080638 40770616 40930434 40910297 40680220 39650212 39310275 39220442 39390615  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 17:51:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 12:51:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508231908.j7NJ8Rn4005913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231906 AZZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231906Z - 232030Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NE AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING ON THE MOGOLLON RIM AND ARE DEVELOPING IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT. THIS AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN CNTRL AZ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY FROM CNTRL AZ TO NERN AZ. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STORMS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD INTO THE WEAKER INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ... 34240983 34201050 34751140 35661188 36301215 36681199 36821126 36491009 35790947 35050932 34520940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 18:09:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 13:09:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508231926.j7NJQTHv018846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231925 TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AR...FAR WRN TN...AND FAR NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231925Z - 232100Z SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AR WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 10-15KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS E-CENTRAL INTO ERN AR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME DUE TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF STORMS AND EXPECTED ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AT 1910Z...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AR. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX DEVELOPED FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL OK HAS MOVED INTO FAR NWRN AR. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE ORGANIZED A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING FROM 30SW HRO TO 45 NW HOT. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS E-CENTRAL/ERN AR DOWNSTREAM OF MCV. SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL AR TO INTERSECT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTH OF LIT. WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THESE SFC BOUNDARIES AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL AR. NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20KT...MESOSCALE FORCING AND MINIMAL CIN WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE EVENT A LARGER COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP WITH ONGOING STORMS...PRESENTING A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 35919302 36099250 36099161 35999055 35458989 34599013 33669061 33619117 33669204 33819269 34029317 34339332 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 18:47:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 13:47:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508232004.j7NK4P3W014388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232003 MTZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232003Z - 232130Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INTENSIFY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS WRN AND NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF MT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR FROM ERN WA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW MT INTO SRN CANADA. AS A RESULT...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 35 TO 40 KTS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX... 47681009 47531160 47861245 48461264 48921233 48861037 48860875 48120911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 19:34:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 14:34:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508232052.j7NKq4gl019792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232051 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...NERN NM...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232051Z - 232245Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FROM SERN CO SWD ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLES. CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING EWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR AN INCREASING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AT 23/2030Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NERN NM/SERN CO BORDER SWD TO NEAR TCC. AREA VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS UT...AND SEWD EXTENTION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS FOCUSED NORTH OF SURFACE TROUGH/SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ACROSS THE WRN OK PANHANDLE. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES INTO SERN CO...WITH WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AS MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO THIS REGION...NORTH OF DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT FROM 35NE DHT TO 15NE CSM. THE 18Z NAM INDICATES A SSWLY 850MB JET MAX OF 35-40KT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE BY 05Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37390397 37930369 37830073 37150061 34820069 34970377 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 00:07:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 19:07:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508240124.j7O1OVdg023977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240123 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 741... VALID 240123Z - 240330Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD THROUGH NE CO WITHIN THE REMAINING PARTS OF WW 741. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE...AND THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES SPREADING EWD THROUGH E CNTRL AND NE CO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...AND THE STORM MOVING INTO KIT CARSON COUNTY CONTINUES TO SHOW SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SRN END OF THE MCS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MORE UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION SPREADING INTO SWRN KS MAY RESULT IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FARTHER S ACROSS SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. MOREOVER...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE LFC THROUGH 6 KM...AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS TO STORM ORGANIZATION. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 38500380 40180310 40740245 40480146 38800131 37349970 36640108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 18:06:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 13:06:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508241923.j7OJNNT6006795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241922 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY...SWRN SD...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241922Z - 242115Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM FAR E-CENTRAL/SERN WY EWD INTO SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY MICROBURSTS. SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH A SURFACE LOW IN S-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO JUST WEST OF BIS TO JUST SOUTH OF RAP...AND WWD TO 30N CAP AS OF 19Z. FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS GIVEN WEAK FLOW IN THE COLD SECTOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING WLY SURFACE WINDS ARE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WY. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL WY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL POSITION NEAR THE TRI-BORDER AREA OF WY/NEB/SD. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE IS ABSENT...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. ALSO...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH LIMITED DEEP-LAYER FORCING...EXPECTATION IS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING 45F DURING PEAK HEATING MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER EWD INTO SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 43370513 43380430 43730303 43920205 41440160 41090227 41140459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 18:15:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 13:15:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508241932.j7OJWGta012645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241931 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-242130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241931Z - 242130Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR TX PANHANDLE...WRN AND NCNTRL OK INTO FAR SRN KS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN NCNTRL OK ARE IN THE MID 70S F RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT FROM CNTRL OK NWWD INTO SW KS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS OR A BRIEF SPINUP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36979716 36349668 35759695 35009882 35169980 35750019 36669979 37259800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 19:29:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 14:29:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508242046.j7OKkAUa001512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242043 TXZ000-242145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX AND TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242043Z - 242145Z A SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS ACROSS WEST TX. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE NEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NEAR AMA TO NEAR GAGE WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 36120087 34980266 33970298 34090182 35250014 36150067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 21:22:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 16:22:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508242239.j7OMdNPt005922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242238 NDZ000-SDZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242238Z - 250015Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM BOTTINEAU SWD THROUGH EMMONS COUNTIES IN CNTRL ND...AS WELL AS OVER DEWEY COUNTY IN CNTRL SD. BILLOW CLOUDS OBSERVED ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN ND INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER REMAINS STABLE EXCEPT FOR ONLY A NARROW ZONE ALONG FRONT WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING ALONG FRONT OVER SAME GENERAL AREA AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER SWRN SASKATCHEWAN OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THAT WILL EXIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS GIVEN CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD. HERE...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INITIATE. ..MEAD.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 48490138 48990122 49039982 47679891 45079907 44040005 43550096 43500182 43970210 44920136 46500117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 22:00:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 17:00:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508242317.j7ONHh24022980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242316 KSZ000-OKZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242316Z - 250045Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF WW 742 THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 2305Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER N-CNTRL OK WITHIN FAR NRN PORTION OF WW 742. WITH EXCEPTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OVER GARFIELD COUNTY...MAJORITY OF STORMS THUS FAR HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY NEWD AT 25-30 KTS. MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ THIS EVENING OVER NRN OK INTO S-CNTRL KS...TO THE S OF WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDING SSEWD FROM HYS TO P28 AND THEN EWD THROUGH WLD AND CNU. CURRENT PROFILER FROM LAMONT OK INDICATES VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 140 M2/S2 AND MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 30 KTS/ TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP INTO S-CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36939913 37939892 38499773 38439674 38089557 37209552 36879618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 00:22:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 19:22:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508250139.j7P1dQ1P022464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250138 OKZ000-TXZ000-250245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0838 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 742... VALID 250138Z - 250245Z ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW AREA. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN HOUR. TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTMS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER WRN AND NRN OK...WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS BEING SMALL MCS IN PROGRESS SE OF ICT. IT APPEARS THAT WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND...WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING TO THE N IN SERN KS. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 36360003 36849916 36819609 34119999 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 01:52:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 20:52:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508250309.j7P39iOj029539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250308 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-250415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS INTO SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250308Z - 250415Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 743 BY 04Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0255Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MCS WITH EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CIRCULATION OVER COFFEY...WOODSON...WILSON...GREENWOOD AND ELK COUNTIES KS MOVING 250/30 KTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60-65 MPH WINDS FROM THE VICINITY OF ICT TO IT/S PRESENT LOCATION. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS MCS IS MOVING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR CNU SEWD TO JUST N OF SGF AND INTO FAR SERN MO. THE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. DIABATIC COOLING WITHIN BOUNDARY-LAYER IS LIKELY RESULTING IN THE STRENGTHENING OF A CAP ACROSS THIS INFLOW AIR MASS. HOWEVER...GIVEN FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL...EXPECT MCS AND SOME INHERENT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP E OF WW 743 BY 04Z. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38009507 38439501 38599438 38309342 37829333 37249357 36989399 36939445 36959481 37039505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 03:01:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 22:01:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508250418.j7P4IgM4026477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250417 OKZ000-KSZ000-250515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 743... VALID 250417Z - 250515Z THROUGH 05Z...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. MEANWHILE TO THE W...POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM FRANKLIN SWD THROUGH NEOSHO COUNTIES IN SERN KS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF 60-65 MPH WINDS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY EWD AT 25-30 KTS. MEANWHILE...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS FROM SW OF SLN TO E OF ICT WHERE ERN EDGE OF 30-35 KT SLY LLJ AXIS IS INTERSECTING REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MOIST INFLOW AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ AND RESULTANT PW/S OF AOA 2 INCHES IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING STORMS SUGGEST A THREAT OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1-2 INCHES. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38939761 38919506 36919512 36939764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 04:43:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 23:43:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508250600.j7P60O6H031129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250559 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250559 MOZ000-KSZ000-250730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 250559Z - 250730Z MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN IMPACTS SHIFTING TOWARD HEAVY RAINFALL. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL ARCING FROM KSZL-KCNU-KHUT. COLD POOLS ARE ELONGATING ENEWD AMIDST A WSWLY MEAN FLOW REGIME. BUT...PROFILERS/VWPS SUGGEST H5 FLOW IS AOB 30 KTS...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL MO/OZARKS. MOREOVER...INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS WRN MO AND AS THE COLD POOL SPLAYS EWD...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BE WEAKER. MEANWHILE...SLY H9-H85 JET HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM WRN OK INTO SRN KS...EMANATING FROM A RESERVOIR OF MODEST CAPE. NOSE OF THIS JET WAS IMPINGING ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS...FORCING ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT GENERATION/BACKBUILDING ACROSS ERN KS. MAGNITUDE OF PW/ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ WILL LIKELY KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE SAME AREAS IN ERN KS/WRN MO THROUGH DAYBREAK. SPECIFICALLY...AREAS FROM JUST EAST OF KICT-KCNU APPEAR TO BE IN THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS /HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS/...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 743 WILL EXPIRE ON TIME /07Z/. ..RACY.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37189742 38219746 38729744 39129514 39259385 39209323 38399284 37809311 37189455 37079526 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 17:04:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 12:04:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508251821.j7PILVnR012432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251820 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-252015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NERN SD...NWRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 251820Z - 252015Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN MN... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ALONG LEADING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NERN SD...INTO NWRN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE BANDED STRUCTURES AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL AID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS ERN SD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING FURTHER ACTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DARROW.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45669917 47669653 48139362 47139421 45439719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 17:12:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 12:12:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508251829.j7PIT58U018263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251827 FLZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251827Z - 252030Z THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF T.S. KATRINA ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR TORNADO THREAT. TORNADO POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SERN FL CONTINUES A WWD MOTION AT 5KT PER LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE ORGANIZED CURVED SPIRAL BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED CELLULAR ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM COASTAL INDIAN RIVER COUNTY EWD AND ESEWD OVER THE OCEAN NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. SOME SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONFLUENCE AREA...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND NEARBY SPIRAL BAND...THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH INDICATION OF ROTATION WITH EXISTING CELLS TO THIS POINT EAST OF THE E-CENTRAL FL COAST. MLB VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES MINIMAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR. BASED ON A CELL MOTION OF 75/30KT...SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 40-50 M2/S2 IN THE 0-1KM AND 0-3KM LAYERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 30KT 1-3KM ELY FLOW HAS OCCURRED SINCE 15Z. SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR/SRH PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF TORNADOES AND POSSIBLE WW. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CONTINGENT ON OVERALL EVOLUTION/INTENSITY CHANGE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28148181 28378104 28288065 27158012 26468008 26298024 26198069 26168117 26218166 26498217 26948220 27768212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 17:47:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 12:47:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508251904.j7PJ4GXl010329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251903 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251903Z - 252030Z ...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY/NRN CO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON INTERACT WITH DOWNSTREAM ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...ENHANCING UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 42460441 43019999 41320115 40590422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 18:57:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 13:57:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252014.j7PKEBAq027070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252012 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK AND THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...AND THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252012Z - 252215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL KS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. AT 20Z...SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION EXTENDS NNW-SSE FROM 45S HLC TO 15W P28 AND THEN BENDS EWD ACROSS FAR NERN OK. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY CAPPED ON THE COOL /NORTHEAST/ SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS HAS HEATED STRONGLY ACROSS SWRN KS SWD ACROSS NWRN OK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...SWLY SFC WINDS...AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ARE PRESENT JUST WEST AND SW OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW SW-NE ORIENTED LINES OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR NWRN OK. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER FORCING IS WEAK...MOIST MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SUBTLE BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS/CONVERGENCE ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. IF STORMS DO FORM...CELLS WOULD TRACK GENERALLY NEWD AT 20-25KT TOWARD STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL KS...WITH SFC-6KM VALUES OF 40KTS PRESENT AT THE HAVILAND KS PROFILER. MAIN THREAT WEST OF THE OUTFLOW WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH SRH/LOW-LEVEL VEERING ENHANCED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS OR STORMS CROSSING THE BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36169962 36130043 36340100 36970104 37680059 38020010 38459880 37889826 36849757 36409866 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 19:15:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 14:15:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252032.j7PKWAqt007952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252031 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-252130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252031Z - 252130Z ...A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR ERN SD AND A SMALL PART OF NRN NEB... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS APPARENTLY SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WIND SHIFT IN SERN SD. WITH A NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 MLCAPE HAS DEVELOPED WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS EVOLVING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43149966 45849779 45479651 42589814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 19:53:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 14:53:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252110.j7PLADLx004702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252109 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL...WRN TN...AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252109Z - 252315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SERN MO EWD INTO SRN IL/WRN KY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN AR INTO WRN TN. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX GENERATED FROM MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO W-CENTRAL IL AT 21Z. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED STRONGLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...NEAR THE JUNCTION OF THE MS/OH RIVERS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90S WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS BASED ON THE RUC INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN. NARROW ZONE OF 30-40KT SFC-6KM SHEAR EXISTS SOUTH OF MCV CENTER...ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN IL WHERE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT EXISTS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD YIELD A CORRIDOR OF LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER CELLS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN AR/WRN TN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER AND ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38099094 38389025 38418798 36848831 35968875 35548927 35419038 35579205 35889243 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 21:00:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 16:00:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252217.j7PMHmNg015475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252216 FLZ000-260045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 252216Z - 260045Z POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP WWD ACROSS THE LOWER ERN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE KATRINA. AS OF 2206Z...MIA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER 20 NE OF MIA WITH A VERY SLOW WWD MOVEMENT. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT...WHEN COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PW/S AOA 2.50-2.60 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. INDEED...MIA 1-HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION ALGORITHM INDICATES 1.0-1.5 INCHES S OF CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 5 SSW MIA TO 30 ESE MIA...INCREASING TO 2-3 INCHES E OF CENTER APPROXIMATELY 40 ENE MIA. THUS...EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE AS KATRINA MOVES FURTHER ONSHORE...ALLOWING MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS OBSERVED E OF CIRCULATION CENTER TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL... 26278101 26408074 26378008 26027999 25568005 25358028 25348062 25428089 25658101 25978114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 21:59:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 16:59:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508252316.j7PNGqqP014185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252314 MNZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252314Z - 260015Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST N OF WW 745 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED E OF THE RED RIVER OVER WILKIN COUNTY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS STORM OVER WRN OTTER TAIL COUNTY MOVING 260/25 KTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CURRENT WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER AND RUC PROXIMITY HODOGRAPHS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL WITH RESULTANT 0-3 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30-35 KTS. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT THAT THIS SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EWD TOWARD BRD. RELATIVELY WEAKNESS IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE THAT STORM SHOULD REMAIN HIGH-PRECIPITATION IN CHARACTER WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 46629649 46839605 46849502 46609411 46209412 45949483 46069647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 23:21:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 18:21:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508260038.j7Q0crnK020605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260037 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-260200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 744... VALID 260037Z - 260200Z THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 744 AREA. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY PRIOR TO 02Z. AS OF 0020Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS FROM KEITH COUNTY NEB SWWD TO LINCOLN COUNTY CO MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 20-25 KTS. HOWEVER...CNTRL/SRN PORTION OF LINE OVER WASHINGTON...YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES CO HAS RECENTLY ACCELERATED SEWD AT AROUND 30 KTS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SNY...AKO AND LIC SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...INDICATIVE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD POOL. IN CONTRAST...GLD SURFACE OBSERVATION SHOWS TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 90S AND A 35 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE LINE EWD/SEWD VIA SYSTEM PROPAGATION. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS COUPLED WITH ORGANIZING COLD POOL SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP E OF WW 744 WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38900347 39800318 40980263 41620187 41690093 41379991 40709967 39900001 39160050 38780096 38500161 38450261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 23:50:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 18:50:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508260107.j7Q17Oda002225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260106 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-260200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB/W-CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 745... VALID 260106Z - 260200Z THROUGH 04Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0056Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER FAR SERN ND INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN MN LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMUM ROTATING NEWD AROUND SASKATCHEWAN UPPER LOW. FARTHER TO THE SW...AN ADDITIONAL SMALLER TSTM COMPLEX /PERIODICALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ WAS NOTED OVER GREGORY COUNTY SD AND BOYD AND KEYA PAHA COUNTIES IN NEB MOVING GENERALLY SWD AT 10 KTS. BETWEEN THESE STORM CLUSTERS...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH OVER THE PAST HOUR. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS NEB PORTION OF WW AHEAD OF WEAKER SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HERE...PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /REF. 00Z LBF SOUNDING/ COUPLED WITH AN INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN N-CNTRL NEB STORMS...AS WELL AS LEAD TO FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS ACROSS WW AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 45989802 45949512 42079809 42080074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 26 02:14:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 21:14:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508260331.j7Q3Vp1S007438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260330 SDZ000-260500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260330Z - 260500Z A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SD OVERNIGHT. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER NERN WY AND WRN SD HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER JACKSON...BENNETT AND MELLETTE COUNTIES IN SWRN/S-CNTRL SD. INSPECTION OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED PARCELS /I.E. MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30-40 KTS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. DESPITE MODESTLY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAN DEVELOP. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43500101 44380013 44999857 44919736 44439702 43829720 43379767 43119814 43019895 43050076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 26 03:13:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 22:13:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508260431.j7Q4V8NY031965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260428 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-260600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746... VALID 260428Z - 260600Z THROUGH 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 746. AS OF 0415Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR MCS EXTENDING FROM DAWSON COUNTY NEB SWD INTO SHERIDAN AND GOVE COUNTIES IN NWRN KS WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION OF 25-30 KTS. A SMALLER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS ALSO OBSERVED OVER BROWN...ROCK AND LOUP COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL NEB...ALSO MOVING EWD AT 25-30 KTS. WHILE PLAN VIEW RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWS A STRONG CAP DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT: 1) STORMS ARE EITHER BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER...OR 2) SYSTEM COLD POOL IS MAINTAINING SURFACE-BASED STORMS...HOWEVER PARCEL BUOYANCY IS BEING DILUTED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WRN SD AND WRN NEB WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS EWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW AREA AND POINTS E OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERITY OF THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD... 38790185 43010078 42829785 38719906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F5dk012295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262310 OKZ000-TXZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WCNTRL/NCNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262310Z - 270015Z THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WCNTRL AND PERHAPS NCNTRL OK. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CURRENTLY ONGOING AT 23Z IN WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NORTH OF I-40 FROM NE OF AMARILLO IN HUTCHINSON AND CARSON COUNTIES OF TX...INTO ROGER MILLS/DEWEY COUNTIES OF OK. THESE STORMS ONGOING INVOF SFC TROUGH...WHERE AIRMASS BECAME DEEPLY MIXED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO NCNTRL OK TOWARD I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY WEAK CINH EXISTS. WITH MODEST AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS/ AND ONGOING INTENSITY OF TSTMS LARGELY TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 36709713 36419707 35999716 35479872 35120018 35240151 35620143 35820110 35979983 36249844  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F4od012291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261515 ILZ000-MOZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261515Z - 261745Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SWRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BY NOON. MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST ACROSS NCNTRL MO LATE THIS MORNING WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM JEF TO SGF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE LOW/WAVE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER ECNTRL MO AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SERN MO. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF STRONG WARM SECTOR HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INVOF LOW AND WARM FRONT. A BELT OF DIFFLUENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35KT WILL REMAIN SITUATED ATOP RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN AN HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 36509403 36819437 37959311 38099299 39079237 39569178 39499120 38758953 37988887 37468897 36718952 36569126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F9Fr012337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262233 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR INTO WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262233Z - 262330Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN AR AND WRN TN. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 2222Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM PEMISCOT AND LAKE COUNTIES IN FAR NERN AR TO GIBSON COUNTY IN WRN TN. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT NERN AR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG TRAILING EDGE OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER WRN KY/SERN IL AND SWRN IND. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WRN TN REMAINS HOT AND MOIST WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFOREMENTIONED STORMS TO CONTINUE SEWD WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. EWD EXTENT OF THREAT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST E OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ONGOING MCS OVER FAR WRN KY SEWD INTO SRN MIDDLE TN. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36589057 36688992 36578848 35848757 35248751 35098775 35038875 35068974 35259019 35839066 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FA9A012340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261918 OKZ000-KSZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261918Z - 262145Z PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND NRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND LARGE MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN MO. A WEAK WAKE LOW HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT MESOANALYSES OVER SERN KS... WITH DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS WAKE LOW ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM NERN KS SWWD TO NWRN OK WITH A WEAK THERMAL LOW/TROUGH FORMING NEAR THE FRONT ON THE KS/OK BORDER. AIR MASS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THESE SFC FEATURES WAS BECOMING VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CU/TCU TO START FORMING FROM EMP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW. WHILE REGION APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEB. PROFILER AND VWP WINDS WERE INDICATING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR CELLS TRACKING PREFERENTIALLY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW. EXPECT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37319795 38579633 38379506 37959467 37239466 36939467 36819524 36509620 36129854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F8hN012312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261801 ARZ000-OKZ000-262030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261801Z - 262030Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF AR WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOT AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATING MLCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SOUTH FROM MO. STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AND LITTLE INHIBITION...NUMEROUS PULSE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS TIME UNLESS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36459029 34439146 33439385 34539462 35419441 36439414  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FEmX012372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270150 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0850 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SERN K AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 748... VALID 270150Z - 270315Z THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0138Z...TULSA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A W-E ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES MOVING 330/25-30 KTS. IMMEDIATE AIR MASS S OF ONGOING STORMS REMAINS QUITE MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT HAS SURGED AHEAD OF STORMS BY 20 MILES...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL OVERWHELMING THE WEAK AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE S OF WW 748...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOCALIZED. FARTHER TO THE E...STORMS NW OF SGF ARE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ATTM. INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SOME THREAT OF STORM ORGANIZATION STILL EXISTS ACROSS ERN/SERN PORTION OF WW AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37159680 37279523 37809425 37669307 36319305 36629676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3F7QN012300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270150 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0850 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SERN K AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 748... VALID 270150Z - 270315Z THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0138Z...TULSA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A W-E ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES MOVING 330/25-30 KTS. IMMEDIATE AIR MASS S OF ONGOING STORMS REMAINS QUITE MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT HAS SURGED AHEAD OF STORMS BY 20 MILES...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL OVERWHELMING THE WEAK AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE S OF WW 748...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOCALIZED. FARTHER TO THE E...STORMS NW OF SGF ARE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ATTM. INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SOME THREAT OF STORM ORGANIZATION STILL EXISTS ACROSS ERN/SERN PORTION OF WW AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37159680 37279523 37809425 37669307 36319305 36629676  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FDH3012369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261515 ILZ000-MOZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261515Z - 261745Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SWRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BY NOON. MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST ACROSS NCNTRL MO LATE THIS MORNING WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM JEF TO SGF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE LOW/WAVE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER ECNTRL MO AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SERN MO. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF STRONG WARM SECTOR HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INVOF LOW AND WARM FRONT. A BELT OF DIFFLUENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35KT WILL REMAIN SITUATED ATOP RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN AN HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 36509403 36819437 37959311 38099299 39079237 39569178 39499120 38758953 37988887 37468897 36718952 36569126  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FIMR012418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272241 TXZ000-NMZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272241Z - 280015Z LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN NM INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK REGION OF NW TX. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME INVOF EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ECNTRL NM SEWD INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA AND AREAS NORTH OF ABILENE TX. EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ECNTRL/SE NM INTO NW TX IS RATHER UNSTABLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SWD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AMIDST WELL MIXED/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION...ENHANCING STORM LONGEVITY AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 08/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35240308 34860258 34110147 33220076 32809939 32209935 32009942 32050259 32590448 33340474 34660443 35490428 35610345  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FKtF012487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261941 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...SRN IL...WRN KS...SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747... VALID 261941Z - 262045Z ARCING SQUALL LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST HOUR AND CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH SEVERE TSTM WATCH 747 AT ABOUT 35KT. ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO 35-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...AND AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING INTO MARION AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND ANOTHER INTO FRANKLIN AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...BOTH IN SCNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL ALSO MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EITHER AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE..OR NEAR THE TRAILING PART OF THE LINE. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36548908 36689182 37839087 38838974 39188966 38978703 36388719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FMSG012513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262056 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WCNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262056Z - 262200Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH RIVER VLY WITHIN AN HOUR. BOWING SQUALL LINE WILL CROSS THE WABASH RIVER AND MOVE INTO THE LWR OH RIVER VLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 35KT WITH A NUMBER OF LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS BEING REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IL AND SERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. LINE APPEARS TO BE TAPPING STRONGEST INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP COLD POOL MAY COMPENSATE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. IF STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 39098750 39168667 39168577 38848553 38488548 37938545 37338560 37068588 36968621 37008650 37048677 37188710 37668701 38128700 38498702 38538766  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FGAY012405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262310 OKZ000-TXZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WCNTRL/NCNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262310Z - 270015Z THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WCNTRL AND PERHAPS NCNTRL OK. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CURRENTLY ONGOING AT 23Z IN WEST-EAST CORRIDOR NORTH OF I-40 FROM NE OF AMARILLO IN HUTCHINSON AND CARSON COUNTIES OF TX...INTO ROGER MILLS/DEWEY COUNTIES OF OK. THESE STORMS ONGOING INVOF SFC TROUGH...WHERE AIRMASS BECAME DEEPLY MIXED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO NCNTRL OK TOWARD I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY WEAK CINH EXISTS. WITH MODEST AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS/ AND ONGOING INTENSITY OF TSTMS LARGELY TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GUYER.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 36709713 36419707 35999716 35479872 35120018 35240151 35620143 35820110 35979983 36249844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FIDK012411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262056 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WCNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262056Z - 262200Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH RIVER VLY WITHIN AN HOUR. BOWING SQUALL LINE WILL CROSS THE WABASH RIVER AND MOVE INTO THE LWR OH RIVER VLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 35KT WITH A NUMBER OF LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS BEING REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IL AND SERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. LINE APPEARS TO BE TAPPING STRONGEST INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP COLD POOL MAY COMPENSATE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. IF STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 39098750 39168667 39168577 38848553 38488548 37938545 37338560 37068588 36968621 37008650 37048677 37188710 37668701 38128700 38498702 38538766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FNYn012520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262233 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR INTO WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262233Z - 262330Z THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN AR AND WRN TN. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 2222Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM PEMISCOT AND LAKE COUNTIES IN FAR NERN AR TO GIBSON COUNTY IN WRN TN. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT NERN AR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG TRAILING EDGE OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER WRN KY/SERN IL AND SWRN IND. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WRN TN REMAINS HOT AND MOIST WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFOREMENTIONED STORMS TO CONTINUE SEWD WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. EWD EXTENT OF THREAT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST E OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ONGOING MCS OVER FAR WRN KY SEWD INTO SRN MIDDLE TN. ..MEAD.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36589057 36688992 36578848 35848757 35248751 35098775 35038875 35068974 35259019 35839066  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FB56012343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271806 OKZ000-TXZ000-272030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271806Z - 272030Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF N TX. RANDOM AND OVERALL DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH. A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WERE OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF THE DFW METRO AREA AND NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST LOCAL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER ATTM AND THIS OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SWD TOWARD NWRN SECTIONS OF THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION APPEARS TO BE SITUATED BETWEEN MWL AND FTW AND THE OUTFLOW SPREADING SOUTH FROM THE RED RIVER MAY ACT TO ENHANCE MESOSCALE LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE HOT...UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ACROSS THE REGION MAY COME FROM A WEAK MCV MOVING EAST ACROSS NWRN TX. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW IS WEAK AND WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY PULSE OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 32499677 32309753 32409807 32739828 32969836 33419835 33639812 33879802 33919696 33959659 33279623  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FQD8012598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261941 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...SRN IL...WRN KS...SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747... VALID 261941Z - 262045Z ARCING SQUALL LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST HOUR AND CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH SEVERE TSTM WATCH 747 AT ABOUT 35KT. ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO 35-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...AND AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING INTO MARION AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND ANOTHER INTO FRANKLIN AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...BOTH IN SCNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL ALSO MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EITHER AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE..OR NEAR THE TRAILING PART OF THE LINE. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36548908 36689182 37839087 38838974 39188966 38978703 36388719  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FF7H012382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261918 OKZ000-KSZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261918Z - 262145Z PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND NRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS INITIATING ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND LARGE MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN MO. A WEAK WAKE LOW HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT MESOANALYSES OVER SERN KS... WITH DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS WAKE LOW ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM NERN KS SWWD TO NWRN OK WITH A WEAK THERMAL LOW/TROUGH FORMING NEAR THE FRONT ON THE KS/OK BORDER. AIR MASS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THESE SFC FEATURES WAS BECOMING VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CU/TCU TO START FORMING FROM EMP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW. WHILE REGION APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEB. PROFILER AND VWP WINDS WERE INDICATING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR CELLS TRACKING PREFERENTIALLY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW. EXPECT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37319795 38579633 38379506 37959467 37239466 36939467 36819524 36509620 36129854  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 01:57:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 20:57:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280315.j7S3FJN4012477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261801 ARZ000-OKZ000-262030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261801Z - 262030Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF AR WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOT AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATING MLCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SOUTH FROM MO. STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AND LITTLE INHIBITION...NUMEROUS PULSE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS TIME UNLESS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36459029 34439146 33439385 34539462 35419441 36439414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 02:18:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 21:18:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508280336.j7S3aJHd017984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280304 KSZ000-NEZ000-280400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN NEB...NRN/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 749... VALID 280304Z - 280400Z REMAINDER WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 4Z. MULTICELL CLUSTER INVOF GRI SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS ITS OUTFLOW SURGES FARTHER S-SW FROM STRONGEST REFLECTIVITY CORES. ACTIVITY OVER KS/NEB BORDER S MCK HAS YIELDED REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCH DIAMETER DURING PAST HOUR. ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTER JUST E OF CO BORDER...S GLD...MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS WELL. ISOLATED/INTERMITTENT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS WITH THESE CLUSTERS...PRIMARILY IN FORM OF HAIL. EXPECT CONTINUED COOLING AND DEEPENING OF STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER -- BOTH FROM OUTFLOWS AND FROM DIABATIC HEAT LOSS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER OUTFLOW CURRENTS...AND SMALLER POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO FORCE SFC BASED PARCELS TO LFC. ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD... 39810089 40389979 41099810 41209766 40969732 40419722 39989733 39919875 39889952 38969991 38160026 37750065 38180115 38360139 38750173 39080195  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 15:32:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 10:32:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508281649.j7SGnwJK023393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281649 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281649Z - 281845Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER ERN NEB AND PERHAPS NERN KS IN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND EXTREME NERN KS. MINOR SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN ARC OF MODEST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO MID MS RIVER VLY WILL LIKELY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VLY TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG STALLED SFC BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO NWWD ACROSS ERN NEB. A COUPLE OF ELAVTED STORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT SFC-BASED ACTVITY TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILZE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 25-30KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS CAPABALE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND SFC-BASED ACTVITY COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING RESULTS IN LARGER SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39849648 40189911 42530105 42919925 42739708 41579638 39899558 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 15:34:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 10:34:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508281652.j7SGqVmi024128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281650 COR NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281650Z - 281845Z CORRECTED FOR SPELLING A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER ERN NEB AND PERHAPS NERN KS IN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND EXTREME NERN KS. MINOR SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN ARC OF MODEST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO MID MS RIVER VLY WILL LIKELY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VLY TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG STALLED SFC BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO NWWD ACROSS ERN NEB. A COUPLE OF ELEVATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT SFC-BASED ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 25-30KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND SFC-BASED ACTIVITY COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING RESULTS IN LARGER SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39849648 40189911 42530105 42919925 42739708 41579638 39899558  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 16:39:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 11:39:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508281757.j7SHv7So016159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281756 TXZ000-NMZ000-282000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281756Z - 282000Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS OVER THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST DUE TO COOL ADVECTION WITH DISTINCT VORTICITY LOBE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE RIGHT OR LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS. ..JEWELL.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32060545 32970563 33840614 34560638 34890603 35040540 34910462 34390348 33880328 32300327 31570341 31130375 31480481 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 18:27:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 13:27:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508281945.j7SJj66N030040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281942 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281942Z - 282145Z A NUMBER OF WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PARTS OF KS AND NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. IF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DIFFLUENT AND INCREASING NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS SPREADING SEWD ATOP INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM WCNTRL KS TO NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ILL-FORMED SURFACE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED PULSE OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY POSE ONLY A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT BEFORE COLLAPSING. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF IT APPEARS THAT STORM CLUSTER MERGES BEGIN TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER A LARGER REGION. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 37889657 37439868 37419949 38070004 39559768 40189427 40479175 39729172 39139383 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 19:05:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 14:05:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282023.j7SKNEqV014361@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282021 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750... VALID 282021Z - 282145Z A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN IA AND NWRN MO SHORTLY. INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NEB HAS ORGANIZED INTO A SMALL BOWING COMPLEX THAT WAS MOVING EAST AT 25KT. THIS COMPLEX IS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HEAT UP AND SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS SWRN IA AND PARTS OF NWRN MO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...LBF... 40079657 40049814 41709942 41749711 41599541 41319421 40009401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 19:46:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 14:46:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282104.j7SL40sa030219@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282103 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-282200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282103Z - 282200Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SRN MS AND AL...AS WELL AS A SMALL PORTION OF THE WRN FL PNHDL. OUTER FEEDER BAND CONVECTION WAS INCREASING WELL AHEAD OF HURRICANE KATRINA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WERE NOW BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF MINI-SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN BANDS. 0-1KM SRH...NOW IN EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2...WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS KATRINA GETS CLOSER TO LANDFALL. ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29038918 29289002 30129043 30589031 30859011 30978985 31148907 31238837 31238796 31168741 31038693 30818663 30538643 30248660 29868856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 20:39:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 15:39:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282157.j7SLvTPX019980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282156 TXZ000-NMZ000-282330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751... VALID 282156Z - 282330Z 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2 MB OVER FAR SERN NM INTO SWRN TX...WHERE STRONG HEATING IS TAKING PLACE. MEANWHILE...STORMS OVER SERN NM...SOME SEVERE...CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL SLY DIRECTION AND INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW. SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF WW INTO FAR W TX BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. FARTHER N...THREAT IS DIMINISHING OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW DUE TO COOL OUTFLOW AND SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA DUE TO INFILTRATION OF MORE STABLE AIR. ..JEWELL.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 34410405 29880267 29060317 29790446 30630483 32070597 33460634 34460650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 20:53:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 15:53:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282211.j7SMBXcL025696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282209 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-282345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750... VALID 282209Z - 282345Z CENTRAL/ERN PORTION OF ORIGINAL WW MAY BE CLEARED AS INCREASINGLY DEEP/STABLE OUTFLOW POOL SPREADS ACROSS AREA. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER S ASTRIDE MO VALLEY...INTO NWRN MO...POSSIBLY EXTENDING WWD NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN NEB/N-CENTRAL KS. MULTICELLULAR MCS OVER SERN NEB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD DOWN MO VALLEY AND ADJACENT SECTIONS IA/MO/KS INTO AIR MASS THAT -- FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS -- WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE BUOYANCY...WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS...7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND REMAINING DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. AFTER ABOUT 03Z...INFLOW LAYER REGION SHOULD DECOUPLE OFF SURFACE WITH OPTIMAL INSTABILITY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN SMALL BEFORE SUNSET BECAUSE OF WEAK SPEEDS...HOWEVER STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT AND 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FARTHER W ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE SWWD ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 41429949 40899857 40669800 40669727 40919606 41579536 41249449 40569360 39939328 39489361 39039455 38979516 39099618 39569765 40219932 40580047 40930051 41449997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 22:15:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 17:15:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508282333.j7SNXXNf022042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282332 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752... VALID 282332Z - 290100Z TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 2Z OVER SANTA ROSA/ESCAMBIA COUNTIES FL...COASTAL COUNTIES OF AL/MS...WWD ACROSS I-10/I-12 CORRIDOR AROUND BOTH SIDES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NWD TO E-W SEGMENT OF LA/MS BORDER. PROMINENT SPIRAL BAND -- CONTAINING DISCRETE CELLS WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS -- WAS EVIDENT AT 2330Z FROM ABOUT 25 S PNS WNWWD TO JUST OFFSHORE DAUPHIN ISLAND THEN WWD TOWARD LAKE BORGNE. EXPECT THIS BAND TO SHIFT NNWWD IN TUNE WITH AMBIENT HURRICANE TRANSLATION...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE WNWWD. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEADILY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ALREADY 200-300 J/KG OVER MOB REGION BASED ON VWP HODOGRAPHS AND OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS. SRH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WWD ACROSS SERN LA AND EWD ACROSS FL PANHANDLE...WITH MAX LOCATED IN PERIPHERAL NERN QUADRANT...SHIFTING SLOWLY INLAND OVER SWRN AL AND SRN MS. REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FORECASTS AND WARNING/WATCH INFO REGARDING CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29508636 28959081 31439079 31958636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 23:38:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 18:38:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508290055.j7T0trwH020551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290054 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-290200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753... VALID 290054Z - 290200Z WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 4Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE AND ACTIVITY MOVES SE FROM WW. MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LINGER TO ITS E AND SE. PER COORD/W TOPEKA...NERN KS COUNTIES W OF LAWRENCE HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM WW BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL/SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT LIES JUST BEHIND SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS AREA FROM MKC-EMP -- WITH MOST NEW NERN KS/NWRN MO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO SHIFT QUICKLY BEHIND BOUNDARY. FARTHER NE...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE MULTICELL COMPLEX -- NOW EVIDENT FROM DECATUR COUNTY IA SWWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-35 TO NRN FRINGES OF KC METRO AREA -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW AREA WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ABOVE SFC FOR ABOUT 50-60 NM BEFORE REACHING RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS N-CENTRAL MO. EXPECT WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 3Z AS THIS OCCURS...AND AS INFLOW LAYER BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM SFC BECAUSE OF DIABATIC COOLING. INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOWS FROM N-CENTRAL MO AND NERN KS COMPLEXES SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD INVOF MO/KS BORDER S OF MKC...ASSOCIATED LIFT CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS. PRIND SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR ADDITIONAL WW BECAUSE OF COOLING SFC LAYER AND WEAK DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39219702 39099645 39149576 39339522 39549486 40079429 40469413 40709391 40599344 40329311 40009303 39779337 39419360 39069358 38819354 38379362 38029394 37829438 37829482 38089549 38689637 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 01:59:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 20:59:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508290317.j7T3HJUA013024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290316 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752... VALID 290316Z - 290515Z AS OF 3Z...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OCCASIONALLY HAVE BEEN INDICATED WITHIN OUTER BAND...NOW SHIFTING NWD ACROSS WRN FL PANHANDLE...MOB BAY REGION...AND SERN MS. SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS...SOME ROTATING...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NWWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN OUTER BAND AND INNER CORE REGION...AN AREA NOW EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE WRN FL PANHANDLE WNWWD ACROSS MS SOUND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO POSE SECOND ROUND OF TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS COASTAL MS/AL THROUGH 5Z. NEXT...INNER BAND -- EVIDENT AT 3Z FROM ST BERNARD PARISH ACROSS SRN CHANDELEUR ISLANDS THEN ESEWD OVER GULF...ALSO WILL PIVOT NWD. PROMINENT SUPERCELL OVER ST BERNARD PARISH SHOULD MOVE WWD ACROSS NRN PLAQUEMINES/JEFFERSON/ST BERNARD PARISHES BEFORE WEAKENING. ANY OTHER INNER-BAND SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WNWWD ACROSS AREAS FROM MSY-BIX AS HURRICANE CONTINUES ITS LANDWARD TRACK. DURING AND AFTER INNER BAND PASSAGE...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS EYEWALL CORE APCHS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR VALUES WILL DECREASE BECAUSE OF MORE HOMOGENEOUS SPEED/DIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH HEIGHT. TORNADOES STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION JUST OUTSIDE EYEWALL BUT NOT AS MUCH SO AS WITH BANDS FARTHER N THROUGH NE OF CENTER. SOME OF THE FAR SWRN PARISHES OF WW -- I.E. TERREBONNE/ASSUMPTION/LAFOURCHE -- MAY BE REMOVED FROM TORNADO WW DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES ALONG AND E OF NHC FORECAST TRACK BYPASS THEM TO THE E. ALTHOUGH EYEWALLS THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE TORNADOES AS THEY ARE DEFINED...VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND GUSTS OF TORNADIC STRENGTH ARE LIKELY. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC FOR LATEST INTENSITY/TRACK INFORMATION...AS WELL AS WATCHES/WARNINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29508636 28959081 31439079 31958636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 05:09:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 00:09:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508290627.j7T6RaPR014939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290626 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752... VALID 290626Z - 290700Z OUTER BANDS OF KATRINA CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WW AREA. WITH WATCH SET TO EXPIRE AT 29/07Z...NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED -- LIKELY COVERING BASICALLY THE SAME COUNTIES/PARISHES. THE EYE OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE SERN LA COAST...WITH CENTER OF THE EYE NOW ABOUT 45 NM S OF THE SRN-MOST TIP OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH. DISCRETE CELLS PERSIST N AND NE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA -- PARTICULARLY OFF THE COAST OF SE LA / SRN MS / SRN AL. THIS COINCIDES WITH LATEST LIGHTNING LOOP...WHICH SHOWS LONG BAND OF LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THE ERN GULF NWD AND THEN NWWD INTO SERN LA. SEVERAL VELOCITY COUPLETS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION -- MOVING ENEWD ACROSS/INVOF CHANDELEUR SOUND...AND EXPECT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD/TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..GOSS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31149052 32088834 32028624 29858473 29448491 28928770 28899069 29009097 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 10:16:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 05:16:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508291134.j7TBYbGj006590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291133 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 754... VALID 291133Z - 291330Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW...AS EYE OF KATRINA CONTINUES MOVING NWD ACROSS PLAQUEMINES PARISH. MOB VWP SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE 1000 M2/S2 SFC-1 KM HELICITY ATTM...IN NERN QUADRANT OF KATRINA. GREATEST COVERAGE OF DISCRETE CELLS ATTM EXISTS ACROSS SRN AL / THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AROUND FRINGES OF THE DENSER CLOUD SHIELD...AS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES. ..GOSS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30549065 31788886 32168685 30388592 29758634 29218889 29799019 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 11:24:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 06:24:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508291242.j7TCg1cR031597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291241 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-291415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SWRN GA/CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO POTENTIAL VALID 291241Z - 291415Z TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITHIN FAR OUTER BANDS OF KATRINA. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DISCRETE CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE ATTM...E OF TORNADO WATCH 754. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...AREA IS FAR ENOUGH E OF MAIN OVERCAST ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA THAT BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT/DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE/MOVE NNWWD ACROSS THIS AREA. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...LATEST TLH VWP AND MORNING RAOB BOTH SHOW 30 TO 35 KT SFC-1KM SHEAR -- SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32218606 31418443 29878362 29308508 29758630 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 13:19:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 08:19:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508291437.j7TEbTvB010864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291436 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291436 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-291600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MS / CENTRAL AND SRN AL / FL PANHANDLE / SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 754... VALID 291436Z - 291600Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL REPLACE THE EXISTING WATCH 754. VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES EXIST OVER A LARGE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD FARTHER N AND E INTO AL AND GA AS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES NWD. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THETA-E AXIS OVER SRN GA EXTENDING WWD INTO AL WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 80S. CELLS WITHIN THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30308919 33598884 33578701 33328559 32958465 31928370 30008345 29638528 30188587 30288667 30178838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 16:47:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 11:47:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508291805.j7TI55Jw030773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291804 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS / SRN AL / FL PANHANDLE / SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 755... VALID 291804Z - 291930Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 755...WITH HIGHEST THREAT OVER SERN AL...SWRN GA...AND PERHAPS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR ECHO TOPS INDICATE STORMS STRENGTHENING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW...WHERE INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S. SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL TORNADOES...WITH SMALL BUT STRONG COUPLETS NOW SEEN ON LOCAL RADARS. TORNADO THREAT WILL SHIFT NWD WITH TIME. ..JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29878389 30128982 33648983 33398381 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 18:58:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 13:58:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508292016.j7TKGBm5032364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292015 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL / NWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO THREAT VALID 292015Z - 292045Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR NRN AL AND NWRN GA. POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE AREA WITH PERIODIC MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CONVERGENT BANDS. ..JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34298827 34918811 34918419 33648382 33668420 33688530 33708661 33728811 33748820 34078825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 19:06:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 14:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508292024.j7TKOJN8006721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292023 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL / NWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO THREAT VALID 292023Z - 292100Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR NRN AL AND NWRN GA. POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE AREA WITH PERIODIC MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CONVERGENT BANDS. ..JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34298827 34918811 34918419 33648382 33668420 33688530 33708661 33728811 33748820 34078825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 21:26:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 16:26:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508292244.j7TMi4rZ024763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292242 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN MS...CENTRAL/NWRN AL...SRN PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 292242Z - 300145Z NERN INNER-CORE REGION OF HURRICANE KATRINA WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL RATES 2-4 INCHES/HOUR. THIS WILL COMPOUND HAZARD BEGUN BY OUTER BAND RAINS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW PASSING ACROSS NRN PART OF DISCUSSION AREA. STRONG CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 100-120 NM E THROUGH NW OF CENTER OF KATRINA...REMAINING PRIMARY FACTOR IN CONCENTRATING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION AS PRECIP PLUME MOVES OVHD FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCALE WITHIN THIS SWATH. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TYPICALLY RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...I.E. PW 2.25-2.75 THAT IS ESTIMATED BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. VERY EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES DO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS REGIME...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF ACTIVITY TO TC CORE AND LACK OF CG LIGHTNING DETECTED. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32758730 33378783 33588839 34028959 33809027 34729047 35379001 35548904 35348769 34708681 33618646 32818665 32638718 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 21:56:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 16:56:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508292313.j7TNDv2H005993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292312 GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF GA...AL...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME WRN SC...EXTREME SWRN NC...PORTIONS SRN-MIDDLE AND SERN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 755...756... VALID 292312Z - 300015Z WW 755 AND 756 WILL BE REPLACED AND CONSOLIDATED SHORTLY...BECAUSE OF CONTINUATION OF TORNADO THREAT OVER MUCH OF REGION AND SLOW NNEWD SHIFT/EXPANSION OF THREAT TOWARD GA/TN AND GA/NC BORDERS. SEVERAL TORNADOES ALREADY GAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN GA SUPERCELLS THAT ARE MOVING NWD TOWARD NC/TN STATE LINES. NUMEROUS SMALL/TIGHTLY DEFINED MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN AVAILABLE SRM DATA FROM DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN AL/SWRN GA BANDS AS WELL. LACK OF REPORTS FROM THAT AREA SO FAR MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEAN LACK OF ACTUAL TORNADOES YET...BECAUSE OF COMMUNICATIONS SITUATION. ALTHOUGH NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK BECAUSE OF GRADUAL LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND WEAKNESS OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY BECAUSE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE. SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD BECAUSE OF LARGE AREA COVERED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR...HOWEVER GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN INVOF 4 MAIN CONVERGENCE BANDS -- TWO NOW EXTENDING N-S ACROSS MUCH OF WRN GA AND TWO OTHERS OVER CENTRAL/SERN AL MOVING NWD. VWP DERIVED HODOGRAPHS SHOW 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 700 J/KG IN CENTRAL AL...GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH EWD EXTENT TO 100-200 J/KG IN CENTRAL GA. NRN PORTION OF THIS REGIME WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS SERN TN AND SWRN NC WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM SW BECAUSE OF WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE NEAR AND SE OF CENTER OF KATRINA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 29888390 29708416 29698524 30078598 31038694 32128762 32838859 33588794 34788768 34998710 35348570 35498443 35458353 34758298 33688314 31568338 30388362 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 01:49:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 20:49:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508300306.j7U36kpf015846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300305 GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-300500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN AL...FL PANHANDLE EXCEPT FAR W...EXTREME NWRN FL PENINSULA...MUCH OF GA EXCEPT COASTAL REGION...EXTREME NWRN SC...SERN AND EXTREME SRN-MIDDLE TN...EXTREME SWRN NC. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 757... VALID 300305Z - 300500Z NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS AND OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING NOCTURNALLY WITH GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING OF SFC AIR MASS. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING CONVERGENCE BAND. AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY IS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN GULF COAST. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND VWP INDICATE LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-800 J/KG...DEPENDING GREATLY ON DEGREE OF RIGHTWARD STORM DEVIANCE THAT IS INPUT. ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF ROTATING AND PRODUCING TORNADOES. SHEAR PROFILES DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM GA/SC BORDER. SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED CONFLUENCE/PRECIP BAND OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF TS KATRINA CIRCULATION -- EXTENDING AS OF 230Z FROM MORGAN COUNTY AL SSEWD TOWARD COOSA COUNTY...THEN SSWWD ACROSS PNS. W OF THIS BAND...RISING ISALLOBARIC TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED VEERING SFC FLOW RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...BENEATH LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING. ..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 34918773 35168695 35438565 35538493 35468424 35348368 34808305 34248276 33508261 32618224 32128231 31918269 31488301 30088309 29668382 29618476 29658527 29748542 30168583 30508641 30648706 31348648 32488626 32838638 33028671 34488758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 03:42:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 22:42:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508300500.j7U50bDw001756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300459 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300459 TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-300800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN AND S-CENTRAL KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN...EXTREME NRN AL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 300459Z - 300800Z PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TS KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NWD AND NNEWD FROM NRN PORTIONS MS/AL AND TN INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY. STEADY 1-2 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCAL 3-4 INCH/HOUR RATES IN HEAVIEST EMBEDDED BANDS AND CORES. VERY EFFICIENT WARM-CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN NRN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION. BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN SMALL BECAUSE OF WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER MASS CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED AMIDST VERY MOIST AIR MASS NE-NW OF CENTER. PW 2-2.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN COMMON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF MID/WRN TN...AND REGIME SHOULD SHIFT NWD INTO KY THROUGH 9Z. ..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34998668 35318719 35728783 36038850 36208894 36628904 37038840 37548679 37188538 35888507 34988559 34818576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 07:23:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 02:23:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508300841.j7U8f62h016970@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300839 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-301045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN/SERN AL/MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE/ALL BUT SERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 757... VALID 300839Z - 301045Z TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES SE AND E OF THE CENTER OF T.S. KATRINA. THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 757...WITH NEW WW TO BE ISSUED PRIOR TO THE 30/10Z EXPIRATION OF THIS WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED/CELLULAR CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...PARTICULARLY WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR THE GA/AL BORDER WSWWD ACROSS SERN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION REMAINS LIMITED -- BOTH ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND LACK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN AL/WRN GA...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADOES WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MOISTEN NWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS REGION -- BOTH NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NWWD FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT NWD -- ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TN AS WELL AS E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO WRN SC/WRN AND CENTRAL NC. WITH CURRENT TORNADO WATCH SET TO EXPIRE AT 30/10Z...NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED -- LIKELY EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF GA NNEWD TOWARD WRN VA. ..GOSS.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE... 36588014 35437992 32298319 30788372 30958514 32418477 35498524 36618332  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 15:25:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 10:25:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508301643.j7UGhcVb011874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301642 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC...ERN WV...WRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 758...759... VALID 301642Z - 301845Z ...TORNADO THREATS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MIDDLE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR... REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE LIFTING INTO SRN KY WITH A NARROW ZONE OF PARTIAL CLEARING SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR HOLDING WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF VA IN ORDER TO OFFSET SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES. WITH TIME THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONFIRMS THIS TREND WITH SIG TOR PARAMETER VALUES SPREADING/INCREASING INTO PORTIONS OF WCNTRL VA. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SIGNIFICANT SELY COMPONENT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MAINTAINING VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TORNADO WATCHES 758/759 WILL BE REPLACED TO REFLECT THIS EVOLUTION. ..DARROW.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 36528332 39218029 38577779 35388101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 19:20:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 14:20:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508302037.j7UKbna7016422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302037 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-302200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SC...WRN NC...SRN WV...WRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 760...761... VALID 302037Z - 302200Z ...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH REGION... BACK EDGE OF ANY MEANINGFUL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE ADVANCING THICKER STRATIFIED LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS AND MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOTED DOWNSTREAM...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF APPALACHIANS. SOMEWHAT DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE NOTED DOWNSTREAM WITHIN BROKEN...BUT BANDED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN NC INTO WRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY PARTIAL HEATING AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS A FEW OF THESE SMALL SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TOWARD NRN VA. THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL WW. ..DARROW.. 08/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 34628181 36888212 38158244 38588116 37988028 37587826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 22:46:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 17:46:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310003.j7V03kFJ001929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310002 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-310100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN WV...WRN VA...WRN/NRN NC...EXTREME ERN KY. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 760...761... VALID 310002Z - 310100Z PRIND WWS 760/761 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE GONE ALTOGETHER BY 01Z...BUT WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OVER THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LESSEN IN COVERAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FROM THIS AREA NWD OVER NRN WV AND WRN PA...AS CENTRAL REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE KATRINA SHIFT NEWD OVER OH TONIGHT. HOWEVER BUOYANCY HAS DECREASED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH GRADUAL LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING. AREAS E OF WW 760 ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SERN VA WILL MAINTAIN MORE FAVORABLE CAPE...BUT ALSO WILL REMAIN IN TRANSITION ZONE TO SMALLER 0-1 KM SRH AMIDST LARGELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 35508021 35638071 35758119 35918126 36398103 36748097 36988110 37098122 36848223 38958182 38988093 38087958 37527861 36887851 35937917 34848010 35328008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 23:08:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 18:08:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310026.j7V0QDDC011194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310025 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-310230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN MD...DC...CENTRAL/NRN VA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762... VALID 310025Z - 310230Z MOST TSTMS SHOW DIMINISHING TREND ATTM AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND OVERALL TENDENCY SHOULD BE OF WEAKENING FOR REMAINDER OF WW DURATION BECAUSE OF GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN BROADLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OBSERVED IN REGIONAL VWP AND FCST BY RUC SOUNDINGS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. LATEST STERLING/LWX VWP YIELDS 0-1 KM SRH APPROXIMATELY 200 J/KG FOR NEWD MOVING CELLS...AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ROTATE AND MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES. THEREFORE WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS DESPITE DECREASING GENERAL TREND IN CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX... 36807883 38137999 39747747 38387631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 23:22:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 18:22:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310040.j7V0eMfo017438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310039 NDZ000-SDZ000-310245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310039Z - 310245Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS...SPREADING EWD THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF ND AND SD. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITING EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN WY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADS EWD AND INTERCEPTS RELATIVE THETA-E/INSTABILITY...AREAL TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG/BEHIND SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR INVOF WEYBURN/ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT ALSO NOTED INVOF MINOT ND...AND NEAR RAPID CITY SD. 00Z OBSERVED BISMARK RAOB IS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-1750 J/KG MUCAPE FOR EXPECTED PRIMARILY ELEVATED NATURE OF PARCELS...GIVEN POST-FRONTAL REGIME/NOCTURNAL COOLING. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE MAIN HAZARD AMIDST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46140257 48540393 48880357 48810046 47589939 44179909 43640105 43880249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 01:03:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 20:03:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310220.j7V2Kpi5030464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310219 PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-310415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN PA...NRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310219Z - 310415Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A FEW SHALLOW/SMALL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGION AND/OR MOVE NEWD FROM WW 762. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO. COUNTERBALANCING FACTORS INCLUDE VERY WEAK BUOYANCY AND LIKELIHOOD OF LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. EXPECT 0-3 AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS TO ENLARGE GRADUALLY AS ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS AREA...IN TUNE WITH CENTER OF REMAINS OF KATRINA FARTHER W OVER OH. IAD RAOB...REGIONAL VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 100-200 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER IN THIS REGIME...EFFECTIVE SHEARS VARYING FROM 40-60 KT. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SBCAPES LESS THAN 700 J/KG...AMIDST WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SFC-BASED BUOYANCY MAY CHANGE LITTLE BECAUSE OF WEAK/SELY SFC MOIST ADVECTION OFFSETTING GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING. STORM TOPS WILL BE LOWERED BECAUSE OF SLIM CAPE PROFILE...ASSOCIATED WEAK PARCEL ACCELERATIONS...AND 300-400 MB STABLE LAYER SAMPLED BY 00Z IAD SOUNDING. ..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39537776 39757801 40247774 40917693 41097558 40637521 39807567 39097651 38997679 39557733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 05:30:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 00:30:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508310648.j7V6mH9I010488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310647 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-310815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA / S CENTRAL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL VALID 310647Z - 310815Z THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO SRN NY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD PA...WHICH DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF PA/SRN NY...AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF KATRINA NOW CENTERED AT LOW-LEVELS OVER OH. LATEST STATE COLLEGE PA /CCX/ VWP SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /40 KT FROM THE SFC TO 1 KM/...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS INDICATED -- WITH TWO SEPARATE SMALL-SCALE LINES NOW CROSSING CENTRAL PA. WITH WIND DAMAGE RECENTLY REPORTED WITH ONE OF THESE LINES -- AS WELL AS WITH THE MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL NOW ENTERING NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...IT APPEARS THAT DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS NEW WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 41757906 42597761 42827622 42477525 42007506 41307525 40027649 39647835 39797923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 10:06:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 05:06:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508311124.j7VBOF6V004671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311122 CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-311245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA/SRN NY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 763... VALID 311122Z - 311245Z SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...ALONG WITH LOCAL SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW...WITH STRONGEST STORMS CONFINED TO NERN PORTIONS OF WW. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS REMAINED LIMITED...VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT...MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OVER NERN PORTIONS OF WW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR SPREADING N OF WW...AND EXTENDING E OF WW ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS/EVOLVING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 42727665 42927468 42657340 41387346 40627549 40587731 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 17:24:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 12:24:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508311841.j7VIfgt8024501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311840 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-312015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311840Z - 312015Z ...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ALONG/AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MLCAPES ARE NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH MAIN SFC LOW HAS LIFTED INTO SRN QUEBEC...IT APPEARS LOW TOPPED...SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL SOON EVOLVE. IF BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES CAN DEVELOP ALONG THESE LINE SEGMENTS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ERN NY INTO VT FOR A SLOW UPWARD EVOLUTION OF DEEPENING CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42747426 44807301 44637144 42087301 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 19:27:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 14:27:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200508312045.j7VKj6Zm016324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312043 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-312245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA AND NW/NCNTRL MO INTO NE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312043Z - 312245Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SCNTRL IA INTO NW/NCNTRL MO AND NE KS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE/DEEPEN ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR DES MOINES IA SWWD TO AROUND ST JOSEPH MO/TOPEKA KS. AMPLE HEATING HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO GRADUALLY ERODE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT/ INVOF OF THE FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH ACTIVITY CLOSELY TIED TO E/SE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO PROMOTE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF EXPECTED HAZARDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. ..GUYER.. 08/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 42019410 42089295 41669193 40119273 39289365 38489494 38169633 38719682 39739560 40479499 WWWW