[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301459
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301458 
LAZ000-TXZ000-301700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301458Z - 301700Z

THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL.

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS GENERALLY ADVANCED OFF TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
AND FRONTAL INVERSION CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/
EASTERN TEXAS. HOWEVER...AIR MASS ABOVE INVERSION LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY MOIST...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF MAIN
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS.  GIVEN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FORCING
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ALTHOUGH
CAPE FOR PARCELS IN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER MAY BE A BIT LARGER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE...HAIL SIZES LIKELY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 04/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

29249897 29909777 30569595 30889437 30569376 30179365
29279466 28199624 27619822 27999889 

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