[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291917 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-292115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX THRU SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291917Z - 292115Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH.

DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER...MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM/DEEPEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR TEXARKANA. 
SOME DEEPENING OF LOW IS OCCURRING...BUT PRIMARY UPSTREAM SOUTHERN
BRANCH IMPULSE IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND MAY TEND TO DELAY/SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING OF
INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW...
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS INCREASING IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND BY 21-22Z AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE.  IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 04/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

34049425 34219390 34289268 34399214 34099156 33539197
33129264 32759335 32719390 33189453 

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