[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290039 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-290215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / ERN OK / NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208...

VALID 290039Z - 290215Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS YET TO OCCUR ACROSS WW AREA.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LINE OF CUMULUS INVOF FRONT / LOW
OVER ERN OK HAS NOT YET EVOLVED INTO TCU / CBS AS WAS ANTICIPATED. 
THOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN OK /
NWRN AR...SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IS A NEGATIVE ACROSS
THIS REGION.  

A LIMITED THREAT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST
ACROSS NRN AR...N OF BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING AR FROM W-E.  AS
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION /
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR UPDRAFT INITIATION OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.  HOWEVER...MODELS CONFIRM BOUNDARY-LAYER
INDICATIONS THAT GREATEST MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD EVOLVE E OF THIS
REGION ACROSS TN NEAR NOSE OF SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  THEREFORE...WITH
WEAKER FORCING ANTICIPATED FURTHER W ACROSS AR...ANY STORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP MAY REMAIN ISOLATED.  THIS COMBINED WITH OVERALL
STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE / CAPE
CONFIRMED BY EVENING LZK /LITTLE ROCK AR/ RAOB WOULD SUGGEST A ONLY
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- WHICH SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME ACROSS WW
AREA.

..GOSS.. 04/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36759426 37129162 36989110 35509157 34689264 34829551 

WWWW