[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252116 
TXZ000-OKZ000-252215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX...INCLUDING DFW METRO AREA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202...

VALID 252116Z - 252215Z

SEVERE STORMS IN DFW METRO AREA DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /IN EXCESS OF 2" DIAMETER/ AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

TWO DOMINANT RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS ACROSS TARRANT AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES IN THE FT. WORTH AREA WILL PROCEED EWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DFW METRO AREA AT 25-30KT DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE LOCALLY BACKED IN ADVANCE OF THESE
STORMS...PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR LOW-MID LEVEL
ROTATION. FT. WORTH VAD WIND PROFILE AND CURRENT STORM MOTION YIELDS
HIGH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. MODIFICATION OF
OBSERVED 19Z FWD SOUNDING YIELDS MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH
MINIMAL CIN. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH THESE
SUPERCELLS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...BUT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS STORMS TRAVERSE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL
CIN.

..BANACOS.. 04/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

30479695 30599831 31039856 32079832 33589751 33759698
33749572 32319615 

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