[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232155 
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-240000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AZ...AND SWRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232155Z - 240000Z

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG A SSE-NNW AXIS FROM S-CENTRAL AZ TO SWRN UT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD...WITH THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. REGION WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. 

STRONG LOW-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR
30.5N 121W AT 2130Z WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CA COAST. COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING SSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE 18Z RUC INDICATES THAT 500MB FLOW INCREASES TO
50-60KT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL AZ THROUGH 03Z WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
WAVE. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED SUBSTANTIALLY...REACHING THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90F IN VALLEY AND BASIN LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ. AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CONVECTION INCREASES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
/40-45F/. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-LIVED STORMS IN STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND GENERALLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD LIMIT NUMBER OF
SEVERE...HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.

..BANACOS.. 04/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

37201405 37911314 37661206 33971005 32210906 31441000
31401114 32711270 34401385 35121399 

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