[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231853 
IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...SERN WA...AND WRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231853Z - 232030Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN ORE...WRN ID...AND SERN WA. THREAT EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS SHORT-LIVED...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.
WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 

WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID-UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NNEWD
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT
REGION HAS BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH REGION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS NERN ORE/WRN ID. LARGE-SCALE UVV SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SERN WA. DESPITE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
AND ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-22C AT 500MB/ WILL YIELD MAX MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM. A FEW ROBUST
UPDRAFTS...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR LARGE HAIL...ARE ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONALLY... INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DOWNDRAFTS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MARGINAL CAPE AND RESULTING ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW.

..BANACOS.. 04/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

46481711 45881637 45071577 44531562 43701571 43481658
43511774 43801884 44461942 45251969 46301911 

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