[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230329 
MSZ000-LAZ000-230500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...ERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196...

VALID 230329Z - 230500Z

ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 N OF LFT TO 30 S OF LUL. NORTH OF
THIS LINE...LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT FOR ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF
OF WW 196 THROUGH ITS VALID TIME /07Z/.

03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN PARTS OF WW 193.
RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS SERN LA AND FAR SRN MS. DESPITE MODEST NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INCREASING SBCINH
COMBINED AND DEEP CONVERGENCE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL SVR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF WW 196 VALID TIME. THIS AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
CLEARED IN THE NEXT WW STATUS MESSAGE AT 0330Z.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW OVER FAR SERN LA SOUTH
OF WW 196 APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND SFC STREAMLINE/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

32298967 31359194 30599189 29779146 30868896 

WWWW