[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230215 
GAZ000-FLZ000-230315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN GA...FAR NRN FLA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193...

VALID 230215Z - 230315Z

THREAT FOR SVR THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 193 VALID TIME /03Z/ WILL BE
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF FAR SERN GA. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF NERN FLA
BEYOND 03Z. HOWEVER...THIS AREA SOUTH OF WW/S 193 AND 195 MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A NEW WATCH BY 03Z IF CONVECTION REORGANIZES OR
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING TREND.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM JAX SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS OUTRUN
MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 195/FAR SRN
PORTIONS OF WW 193. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR THROUGH 03Z SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO CAMDEN COUNTY GA WHERE A STRONG STORMS REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE GUST FRONT. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE
CONVECTIVE LINES REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PER THE 00Z JAX
SOUNDING WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPES
AROUND 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ON
WSWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW PER RECENT RISES IN DEWPTS OVER NCENTRAL
FLA/SCENTRAL GA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/SFC TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED AND A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN FL MAY BE NEEDED BY 03Z.

..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

31738082 31478223 30618216 30598306 30218345 29778293
29658156 29908135 30718151 

WWWW