[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222222 
TXZ000-230015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222222Z - 230015Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
S-CENTRAL TX WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SWD BETWEEN AUS AND SAT
WITH CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WEAK CELLS EXIST PRESENTLY
ACROSS ERN CALDWELL AND SRN BASTROP COUNTY AT 2210Z.

LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS IS LACK OF DEEP-LAYER/LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. UPSTREAM 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-7C/KM ARE ALSO MARGINAL. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 90F AND CIN VALUES BASED ON RUC
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ARE NEAR 0. IT APPEARS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED. NWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR
OF 40-50KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..BANACOS.. 04/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

29790117 30089897 30549565 30419469 29489460 28959555
28519721 28429830 28469948 28570032 

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