[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221925 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-222100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...CENTRAL LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186...

VALID 221925Z - 222100Z

WW 186 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

AIR MASS HAS REMAINED WEAKLY CAPPED THROUGH 19Z ACROSS THE WW
AREA...WITH INITIAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL LA DISSIPATING
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT EXTENDING ENE-WSW THROUGH THE WATCH AREA...WITH A MORE
ROBUST WIND SHIFT JUST SOUTH OF SHV AND GGG APPROACHING THE WATCH
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SEWD DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC-6KM SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 40KT WHICH SUPPORTS THE PROSPECT OF
LONG-LIVED STORMS. COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL CONTINUES PENDING INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

..BANACOS.. 04/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

29969450 31499498 33088974 31558921 

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