[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220809 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...AR...SE MO...SRN IL...FAR WRN KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184...

VALID 220809Z - 220915Z

A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO THE FAR ERN PART OF WW 184. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANOTHER WW
ISSUANCE. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 184 MAY NEED TO BE
CANCELLED.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CNTRL MO...SRN MO AND
CNTRL AR WITH STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F ARE PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL AR
WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES STILL ABOVE 1500 J/KG.
THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR COULD KEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS AR NEAR SEVERE LIMITS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WITH THE BEST THREAT
ACROSS ECNTRL AND SOUTHEAST AR WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
HOWEVER...AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION.

..BROYLES.. 04/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...

33869352 34079400 34659369 35889201 37718972 38628894
38638798 38258740 37258800 36158924 34039217 

WWWW