[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212214 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212214Z - 220015Z

CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO
WRN AR...A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATURE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTS CU FIELD MAY BE CHANGING
CHARACTER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER PAST HALF HOUR. RUC
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 18Z OUN RAOB MODIFIED FOR
AMBIENT ERK OK CONDITIONS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH REMAINS...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE HWY 75/INDIAN NATION
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR FROM BVO TO TUL TO MLC. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /HASKELL PROFILER/ SUGGESTS
SUPERCELL MODE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY HAZARDS LIKELY TO BE VERY
LARGE HAIL...WITH WIND THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING THROUGH THE EVENING
FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR. SWLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW/WEAK 0-1 KM
SHEAR SUGGESTS TORNADO THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

35189692 36209651 36919597 36729457 36439359 35229301
34249288 33939428 34009577 34139747 35039695 

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