[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212104 
TXZ000-OKZ000-212300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212104Z - 212300Z

ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/CNTRL TX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS...A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CU FIELD INVOF DRYLINE...FROM
NEAR THE RED RIVER AROUND CLAY/MONTAGUE COUNTIES...SWD TO JUST WEST
OF MINERAL WELLS...ACROSS I-20 EAST OF ABILENE INTO CALLAHAN COUNTY
AND SWD TO SAN ANGELO. IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN CU
FIELD...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CINH
CONTINUES TO ERODE...WITH 100 MB MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500
J/KG. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE INVOF I-20 EAST OF
ABILENE...WHERE WEAKEST CINH EXISTS WITH SUFFICIENT MASS
CONVERGENCE...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BOTH NORTH/SOUTH
ALONG THE DRYLINE. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL...WITH 25-30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. RELATIVELY LONGER SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
MODE MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN TX WHERE RELATIVELY BETTER SHEAR EXISTS
PER 18Z DFW RAOB.

LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD. GIVEN NON-DESCRIPT
BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR...TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSELY TIED TO DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH SWD
EXTENT INTO CNTRL TX.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

33919803 33889735 33169663 32329676 31629794 30699973
31270085 32889853 33669808 

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