[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201852 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-202045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201852Z - 202045Z

THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL INCREASING ACROSS ERN MO INTO
WCNTRL IL. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW.

ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SEWD AT AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS
ECNTRL MO...ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF QUINCY IL TO NEAR COLUMBIA MO.
AHEAD OF THIS MCS...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TEMPS CONTRIBUTING TO 
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH BASED UPON RUC
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. IN SPITE OF RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /DEEP
LAYER SHEAR 20 KTS OR LESS/...ORGANIZATION OF MCS AND MODEST SWLY
INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PROPAGATION THROUGH MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 04/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

40479135 40639036 39998957 38189001 37169141 37559310
38649320 39579240 

WWWW