[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200356 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN
NEB...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166...

VALID 200356Z - 200530Z

CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF MCS OVER W-CENTRAL NEB.  3Z SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS POLAR FRONT MOVING SWD ABOUT 10-15 KT THROUGH A
MML...MHE...ANW LINE.  SEPARATE WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ROUGHLY 40 SW SUX...TO NEAR BBW AND 10 S OGA. 
AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS REMAINS SUITABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH
8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MUCAPE
2000-2500 J/KG.  30-50 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS INDICATED FOR MCS
DEPENDING ON MOTION USED.

APEX OF BOW ECHO PRODUCED SUBSEVERE 39 KT GUST AT STATION TIF IN
THOMAS COUNTY AT 310Z. HOWEVER...STRONGER GUSTS NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS...AND CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGE -- MAY PENETRATE
SHALLOW/DIABATICALLY COOLED LAYER NEAR SFC...ESPECIALLY SERN
CHERRY...SRN BROWN AND BLAINE COUNTIES.  BASE VELOCITY IMAGERY HAS
INDICATED REAR-INFLOW JET CONTAINING SWATH OF 50-65 KT WINDS BELOW 5
KFT AGL.  WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL DECREASES FATHER N...WHERE POLAR
FRONT HAS INFUSED CONSIDERABLE STATIC STABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER. 
SOME SWD BACKBUILDING HAS OCCURRED INTO NWRN LINCOLN COUNTY. 
ADDITIONAL PROPAGATION IN SRN PORTION OF MCS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SLY
INFLOW.

CLUSTER OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN AND NEAR ERN EDGE OF
WW MAY CONTINUE HAIL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER GREATER HAZARD MAY BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.  PROPAGATIONAL/
TRANSLATIONAL COMPONENTS OFFSET CONSIDERABLY RESULTING IN SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING/MERGING OF TSTMS WITHIN
CLUSTER.  ISOLATED HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ACROSS SRN SD
NEAR POLAR FRONT...AND FROM NERN NEB ACROSS IA...HOWEVER ORGANIZED
AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL WW ATM.

..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

40599834 40620133 41260134 41520087 41850055 42150056
42300073 42320110 42490100 42850005 43079975 43339963
43739939 43989883 43979814 43729722 43229668 42899658
42189651 41909707 41739767 41699835 

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