[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082150 
CAZ000-082245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082150Z - 082245Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ISOLATED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE.  

DEEP WSWLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN ORE/NRN CA COAST WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 500 MB
WILL CONTINUE MAINTAIN SSELY BARRIER FLOW AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS
IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.  20Z RUC SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOWED
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/KG...BUT MODIFIED FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE VALLEY
RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 600-700 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED
STRONG STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...WHILE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY SUPPORT
ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.

..PETERS.. 04/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...

39462239 40502273 40842247 40862183 40022139 39282100
38502046 38072050 37772106 37932153 38272177 38732203 

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