[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080347 
FLZ000-080445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139...

VALID 080347Z - 080445Z

DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN FL THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED WATER SPOUTS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOWER KEYS THROUGH 05-06Z.

KEY WEST RADAR SHOWED TWO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...1) 30 WNW EYW AND 2)
30 WSW EYW WITH BOTH INDICATING A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT NEAR 20 KT. 
THE SRN SUPERCELL HAS REMAINED THE STRONGEST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...WHILE THE NRN STORM HAS SHOWN
A WEAKENING TREND...BUT MAY POSE A WATER SPOUT THREAT TO THE LOWER
KEYS BY 05-06Z.

AT 0330Z...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM MARTIN TO COLLIER
COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF AT 100 NW EYW WITH EMBEDDED BOW
STRUCTURES CONTINUED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA. 
INDIVIDUAL BOWS ARE TRACKING AT SPEEDS FROM 30-40 KT.  OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SHOWED THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN FL
AND THE KEYS...WHILE INSTABILITY WAS MARGINAL ACROSS THE REST OF SRN
FL.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER WW 139 AND THIS INSTABILITY
DISTRIBUTION SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OVER SWRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED HAIL.

..PETERS.. 04/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...

26848110 27788011 26047882 25187994 24448100 24108174
25898298 26118235 

WWWW