[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020945 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-021145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS / S CENTRAL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020945Z - 021145Z

WEAK DESTABILIZATION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CAROLINAS / S CENTRAL VA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL.  

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT -- EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW
OVER CENTRAL WV -- IS NOW MOVING E OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST.  SLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR IS ALLOWING MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TO ADVECT NWD S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT -- WHICH IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR THE VA / NC BORDER.  THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINS A
NEGATIVE IN TERMS OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE
UVV ALONG FRONT / AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH / LOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FORCE A NARROW / EWD-MOVING LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
WRN VA INTO WRN NC.  WITH STRONG SSWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...LINE MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW STRONG / SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING NNEWD ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SRN
SC.  WITH TIME...THESE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE INTO A N-S LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL VA
SWD INTO ERN SC...INCLUDING A FEW / EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS.

..GOSS.. 04/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

37567994 37757841 37437698 35487696 33047930 31968091
33138162 36538058 

WWWW