[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012119 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS/SW AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012119Z - 012315Z

CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF
EXISTING WW 122.

RECENT VIS IMAGERY FEATURES DEEPENING CU FIELD IN SE MS /SE OF I-59/
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SW AL N/NW OF MOBILE. ALTHOUGH SRN
EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SWD INTO SE MS
THIS AFTERNOON...ARRIVAL OF GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS MAY SUPPORT INITIATION ACROSS FAR SE MS/SW AL. 18Z
BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH NEGLIGIBLE
SFC BASED CINH REMAINING OWING TO SUFFICIENT HEATING /LOWER 70S/
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD EXIST GIVEN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 04/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

31978876 32098699 31398696 30548767 30488906 30888936 

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