[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010625 
LAZ000-TXZ000-010800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR UPPER TX COAST / SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 118...

VALID 010625Z - 010800Z

CAPPING EVIDENT OVER SRN HALF OF WW WITH STORMS STRUGGLING TO FORM. 
LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW STORMS INTENSIFYING FROM TYLER COUNTY TX
NEWD TO SABINE COUNTY TX WHERE FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STRONG.

GIVEN VEERING 850 FLOW AND RESULTING THETA-E / INSTABILITY AXIS
SHIFTING EWD...LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO
NERN PORTIONS OF WW THROUGH EXPIRATION TIME...ALONG AND N OF A LINE
FROM LIBERTY COUNTY TX INTO COASTAL SW LA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK.

..JEWELL.. 04/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

29979506 30749455 30689180 29589223 29729338 29849487