From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 00:51:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 19:51:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010050.j310o6hR019648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010049 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-010145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL/SERN TX INTO WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010049Z - 010145Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY TONIGHT ACROSS SABINE RIVER INTO CNTRL LA. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. AS OF 0035Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG ERN EDGE OF WW 115 OVER PANOLA/SHELBY COUNTIES IN FAR E-CNTRL TX...AS WELL AS OVER ALLEN AND EVANGELINE PARISHES IN SWRN LA. COMPARISON OF 31/18Z AND 01/00Z LCH SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /LARGELY VIA LOW-LEVEL WAA/ HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST PROFILE AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF CAP. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT SHOULD EXPEDITE NWD RETURN OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH LA. WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOSER TO 01/06Z AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NWD AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... 31279429 32059412 33029398 33029298 32999214 30299231 30059425 30729432 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 01:09:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 20:09:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010108.j3118hQh032297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010107 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 115... VALID 010107Z - 010300Z LINE OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS OF WW 115. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 115 AND WRN LA AROUND 06Z. BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EWD AROUND 20 KTS INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS...MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 115. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR WILL REMAIN NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE FOR SOME TIME. TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...TOWARDS 06Z...AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARDS ERN EDGE OF WW 115 AND INTO WRN LA WHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND HIGHER DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S MOVES NWD. SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS FAR NERN TX...WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL STILL EXIST...GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THAT THIS AREA WILL NOT BE CLEARED FROM WW 115 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30779708 31809662 33139603 33749565 33689370 30759483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 02:27:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 21:27:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010226.j312QH5v020125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010225 LAZ000-TXZ000-010330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX / SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010225Z - 010330Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BECOME NECESSARY. STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SERN TX AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO SWRN LA GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ..JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... 29259495 29619728 30689659 30629220 29529226 29749372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 03:02:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 22:02:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010301.j3131ARV011799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010259 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116... VALID 010259Z - 010400Z GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 116 THROUGH 04Z-05Z...WHILE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER ERN PART OF WW. AS OF 0240Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE HP SUPERCELL OVER WEST FELICIANA/POINT COUPEE PARISHES MOVING 245/30KTS. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE LOCATED VERY NEAR WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS SRN LA. INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. CURRENT VWPS FROM LCH AND LIX INDICATE FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 45-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...IT APPEARS PRIMARY FACTORS LIMITING TORNADO THREAT IS WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /PER LATEST BTR/LFT OBSERVATIONS/ AND RAIN-COOLED NEAR SURFACE AIR N OF WARM FRONT. OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA /I.E. E OF A MCB TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN LINE/ STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A LARGE COMPLEX WITH BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG WRN EDGE OF SYSTEM. PERSISTENT INFLUX OF 1.7-1.9 INCH PW AIR MASS ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SUSTAIN THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31849194 31768840 30158839 30229198 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 03:29:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 22:29:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010328.j313SK6F030681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010327 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-010430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN TX INTO WRN/CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 117... VALID 010327Z - 010430Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENTIRE WW AREA. 03Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER E-CNTRL TX /NEAR GGG/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS LA TO VICINITY OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE EWD ACROSS ERN/SERN TX. STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER NWRN LA HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL AND ARE LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. INCREASING SLY LLJ AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THIS ELEVATED SEVERE STORM/LARGE HAIL THREAT N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR GGG SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 117 WITHIN THE HOUR. MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THUS FAR...SURFACE LOW HAS SHOWN LITTLE TENDENCY TO DEEPEN WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS WW AREA. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 33029402 33009168 30689229 30739485 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 04:55:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 23:55:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010454.j314srdL020603@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010454 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010453 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-010600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LA EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...117... VALID 010453Z - 010600Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 116/117. AS OF 0435Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED BOW ECHO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED S OF SHV WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION OF AROUND 40 KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW...AND THAT EXTRAPOLATION WILL TAKE IT N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. 3-HR PRESSURE TENANCIES INDICATE CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY STRONGER FALLS FROM THIS LOW EWD INTO CNTRL MS /JAN/...LIKELY INDICATING IT/S EVENTUAL TRACK OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD WITH SURFACE WIND INCREASING FROM THE SE AT POE THIS PAST HOUR. FARTHER E...PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SERN LA INTO SRN MS WILL LIKELY IMPEDE NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT MAIN UPPER SYSTEM STILL IS DIGGING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF TX/OK...SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS STILL NOT IN PHASE WITH SURFACE WARM SECTOR AND AS A RESULT...SURFACE LOW HAS SHOWN LITTLE OR NO DEEPENING. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONES. FT. POLK VWP HAS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE PAST HOUR AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 33059391 32938832 30578838 30789486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 06:28:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 01:28:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010627.j316RWVL014005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010625 LAZ000-TXZ000-010800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR UPPER TX COAST / SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 118... VALID 010625Z - 010800Z CAPPING EVIDENT OVER SRN HALF OF WW WITH STORMS STRUGGLING TO FORM. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW STORMS INTENSIFYING FROM TYLER COUNTY TX NEWD TO SABINE COUNTY TX WHERE FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STRONG. GIVEN VEERING 850 FLOW AND RESULTING THETA-E / INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTING EWD...LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO NERN PORTIONS OF WW THROUGH EXPIRATION TIME...ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY COUNTY TX INTO COASTAL SW LA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK. ..JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29979506 30749455 30689180 29589223 29729338 29849487  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 07:31:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 02:31:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010730.j317U34X016191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010729 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010729Z - 010930Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE ACROSS SRN AL / THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH ONGOING THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WHICH HAS PUSHED S OF THE CENTRAL / ERN GULF COAST SHOULD LIFT NWD WITH TIME AS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SRN LA SHIFTS NEWD. STRONG / ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACR0SS THE GULF COAST REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY MARGINAL HAIL. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD WITH TIME...STORMS MAY BECOME LESS ELEVATED...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS SWRN AL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWD RETREAT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED / EVOLVING SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... 31928844 30908548 30258583 30208855 29668923 28928898 29149061 30509010 30878862 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 10:16:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 05:16:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011015.j31AFtXE012345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011014 MSZ000-LAZ000-011215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS / ERN LA / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...120... VALID 011014Z - 011215Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW. LINE OF CONVECTION -- DELINEATING THE EFFECTIVE REAR EDGE OF ONGOING SEVERE THREAT -- EXTENDS FROM KEMPER COUNTRY MS SWWD INTO POINTE COUPEE PARISH LA. GREATEST THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...EXISTS OVER EXTREME SERN PORTIONS OF WW IN SERN MS...AND EWD INTO AL / WW 120. THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM W TO E WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30659120 32868894 32838848 30528849 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 13:47:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 08:47:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011346.j31DkDlJ020421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011344 FLZ000-GAZ000-011545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL INTO SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011344Z - 011545Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL / THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR NEW WW IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP SHOWS MESOLOW DEVELOPING OVER S CENTRAL AL ATTM. STORMS WHICH WERE EARLIER OVER SRN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A BOW-SHAPED ECHO S OF THIS MESOLOW / ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE ATTM AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST IN THE NERN GULF...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS SURFACE WIND INCREASES FROM THE S AHEAD OF MESOLOW. AS BOUNDARY LAYER RETREATS AND LIMITED HEATING COMMENCES THROUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST...DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW BOWING LINE OF STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED. THUS...GIVEN FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30888516 31098450 31328399 31498281 30858176 29548214 29158284 29198312 29508337 29698342 29758361 29898362 30128401 30058437 29578502 29708533 29918538 30238589 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 17:18:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 12:18:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011717.j31HHEU3030019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011716 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MS/FAR NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011716Z - 011945Z LARGE HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MS/FAR NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN. ALTHOUGH WW NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...WITH BUILDING CB/S DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR ATOP LOWER CLOUD DECK ACROSS FAR NRN MS. GIVEN EWD PROGRESSION OF DYNAMIC ASCENT...SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/NE ACROSS FAR NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN ALONG/NORTH OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONDITIONAL HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING AS MUCH AS 500-750 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE AMIDST SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34028877 34098928 34688949 35628872 36648663 36538556 35298560 35218554 34588725 34078848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 17:22:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 12:22:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011721.j31HLIrj001302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011720 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011720 ALZ000-MSZ000-011915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011720Z - 011915Z SURFACE BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MS/WRN AL AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN AL THEN SWWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL/WRN MS. SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN MS THROUGH AL. THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHIFTED OFFSHORE S OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...BUT RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF UPPER SPEED MAX/VORTICITY CENTER WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH AL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER... STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. OTHER MORE PERSISTENT DISCRETE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ..DIAL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 32049004 33998845 34878660 33988602 32048722 31148879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 19:18:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 14:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011917.j31JHPi4010525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011916 GAZ000-FLZ000-012115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121... VALID 011916Z - 012115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE EWD INTO NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM SRN GA SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE. STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THE LINE EXTEND FROM JUST SE OF TALLAHASSEE SWWD TO NEAR APALACHICOLA...MOVING EAST AT 35 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SWD INTO NRN FL...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST N OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NE ACROSS SRN GA/EXTREME NRN FL. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH NRN FL. ..DIAL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29828491 30108408 30658316 31318250 31478158 30488149 29768162 29548229 29398330 29178432 29048511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:03:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:03:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012102.j31L24gf005901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012100 TNZ000-ALZ000-012230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CNTRL MS THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN AL INTO S CNTRL TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122... VALID 012100Z - 012230Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST AS SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH NRN AL NEAR HUNTSVILLE AND FARTHER SW INTO EXTREME ERN MS NEAR MERIDIAN. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30 KT. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NRN AL ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET HAS PROMOTED INCREASING SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AL. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW IS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM AIR THAT HAS BEEN PARTIALLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS. SO DESPITE PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF THE MCS...MLCAPE OF ONLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60. DESPITE THIS LIMITING FACTOR...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITHIN THE LINE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..DIAL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 33818755 35118683 35118578 34238603 33098654 32348674 32228753 32258836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:18:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:18:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012117.j31LHXEE018801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012115 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012115Z - 012315Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF EXISTING WW 122. RECENT VIS IMAGERY FEATURES DEEPENING CU FIELD IN SE MS /SE OF I-59/ ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SW AL N/NW OF MOBILE. ALTHOUGH SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SWD INTO SE MS THIS AFTERNOON...ARRIVAL OF GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY SUPPORT INITIATION ACROSS FAR SE MS/SW AL. 18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH NEGLIGIBLE SFC BASED CINH REMAINING OWING TO SUFFICIENT HEATING /LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31978876 32098699 31398696 30548767 30488906 30888936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:21:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:21:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012120.j31LKJsu020850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012119 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012119Z - 012315Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF EXISTING WW 122. RECENT VIS IMAGERY FEATURES DEEPENING CU FIELD IN SE MS /SE OF I-59/ ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SW AL N/NW OF MOBILE. ALTHOUGH SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SWD INTO SE MS THIS AFTERNOON...ARRIVAL OF GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY SUPPORT INITIATION ACROSS FAR SE MS/SW AL. 18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH NEGLIGIBLE SFC BASED CINH REMAINING OWING TO SUFFICIENT HEATING /LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31978876 32098699 31398696 30548767 30488906 30888936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:30:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:30:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012129.j31LT2uj027669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012115 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012115Z - 012315Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF EXISTING WW 122. RECENT VIS IMAGERY FEATURES DEEPENING CU FIELD IN SE MS /SE OF I-59/ ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SW AL N/NW OF MOBILE. ALTHOUGH SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SWD INTO SE MS THIS AFTERNOON...ARRIVAL OF GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY SUPPORT INITIATION ACROSS FAR SE MS/SW AL. 18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH NEGLIGIBLE SFC BASED CINH REMAINING OWING TO SUFFICIENT HEATING /LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31978876 32098699 31398696 30548767 30488906 30888936  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:38:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:38:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012137.j31LbPKE002038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012119 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012119Z - 012315Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF EXISTING WW 122. RECENT VIS IMAGERY FEATURES DEEPENING CU FIELD IN SE MS /SE OF I-59/ ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SW AL N/NW OF MOBILE. ALTHOUGH SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SWD INTO SE MS THIS AFTERNOON...ARRIVAL OF GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY SUPPORT INITIATION ACROSS FAR SE MS/SW AL. 18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH NEGLIGIBLE SFC BASED CINH REMAINING OWING TO SUFFICIENT HEATING /LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31978876 32098699 31398696 30548767 30488906 30888936  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 22:57:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 17:57:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012256.j31Mu2kM025377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012255 NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN SWD ACROSS NWRN GA/NERN AL INTO S-CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012255Z - 020000Z A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR OF SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM ROUGHLY TYS SSWWD THROUGH RMG...ANB...MGM TO MOB. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 22Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER MIDDLE TN WITH REGION OF 4-5 MB/3-HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN TN INTO ERN KY...LIKELY DEPICTING EVENTUAL TRACK OF CYCLONE. LINE OF TSTMS IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM NERN AL SWWD TO W OF MOB...GENERALLY MOVING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ EXISTS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE FROM S-CNTRL AL INTO ERN TN. FARTHER E...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXISTENCE OF BILLOW CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF GA INTO SERN AL AND THE FL PNHDL IS LARGELY STABILIZED OUTFLOW FROM MCS IN PROGRESS OVER NRN FL. VWPS ACROSS NARROW WARM SECTOR ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. THUS...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD E OF WW 122 THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NARROW SPATIAL EXTENT OF EXISTING INSTABILITY AXIS...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 33978614 35508539 36058451 35908362 35208395 33438554 31218650 31058717 31248793 32718669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 23:25:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 18:25:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012324.j31NOESH010915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012323 FLZ000-GAZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121... VALID 012323Z - 020030Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS AREA AND TORNADO WATCH 121 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT MCS OVER SRN GA/NRN FL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION OFFSHORE OVER THE NERN GULF. WHILE AIR MASS S OF MCS REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WSWLY AND RESULTED IN: 1) WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG SYSTEM COLD POOL AND 2) AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 00Z ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO ALLOW WW 121 TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. STRONGER OFFSHORE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30898519 31628144 29548143 28878525 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 23:33:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 18:33:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012333.j31NX0EK016306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012255 NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN SWD ACROSS NWRN GA/NERN AL INTO S-CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012255Z - 020000Z A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR OF SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM ROUGHLY TYS SSWWD THROUGH RMG...ANB...MGM TO MOB. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 22Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER MIDDLE TN WITH REGION OF 4-5 MB/3-HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN TN INTO ERN KY...LIKELY DEPICTING EVENTUAL TRACK OF CYCLONE. LINE OF TSTMS IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM NERN AL SWWD TO W OF MOB...GENERALLY MOVING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ EXISTS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE FROM S-CNTRL AL INTO ERN TN. FARTHER E...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXISTENCE OF BILLOW CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF GA INTO SERN AL AND THE FL PNHDL IS LARGELY STABILIZED OUTFLOW FROM MCS IN PROGRESS OVER NRN FL. VWPS ACROSS NARROW WARM SECTOR ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. THUS...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD E OF WW 122 THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NARROW SPATIAL EXTENT OF EXISTING INSTABILITY AXIS...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 33978614 35508539 36058451 35908362 35208395 33438554 31218650 31058717 31248793 32718669  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 23:48:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 18:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012347.j31Nl9Lq024382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012323 FLZ000-GAZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121... VALID 012323Z - 020030Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS AREA AND TORNADO WATCH 121 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT MCS OVER SRN GA/NRN FL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION OFFSHORE OVER THE NERN GULF. WHILE AIR MASS S OF MCS REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WSWLY AND RESULTED IN: 1) WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG SYSTEM COLD POOL AND 2) AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 00Z ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO ALLOW WW 121 TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. STRONGER OFFSHORE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30898519 31628144 29548143 28878525  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 09:48:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 04:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504020947.j329l7Je023424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020945 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-021145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS / S CENTRAL VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020945Z - 021145Z WEAK DESTABILIZATION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS / S CENTRAL VA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT -- EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW OVER CENTRAL WV -- IS NOW MOVING E OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST. SLY FLOW THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR IS ALLOWING MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO ADVECT NWD S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT -- WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE VA / NC BORDER. THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINS A NEGATIVE IN TERMS OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE UVV ALONG FRONT / AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH / LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE A NARROW / EWD-MOVING LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS WRN VA INTO WRN NC. WITH STRONG SSWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...LINE MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG / SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING NNEWD ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SRN SC. WITH TIME...THESE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A N-S LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL VA SWD INTO ERN SC...INCLUDING A FEW / EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 04/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 37567994 37757841 37437698 35487696 33047930 31968091 33138162 36538058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 13:31:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 08:31:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504021330.j32DUUPG021242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021329 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-021500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SERN VA / NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021329Z - 021500Z THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG / SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO EXIST...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY MIDDAY. WITH RELATIVELY MOIST /60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN VA AND ADJACENT NERN NC...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MINIMALLY UNSTABLE. LIMITED DESTABILIZATION MAY CONTINUE AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD EWD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID / UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO NNEWD ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD -- AS REVEALED BY MORNING RAOBS AND AREA VWPS -- SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BROKEN / FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THIS LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY MIDDAY / EARLY AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVE ENDING ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 04/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38777687 38957524 38587496 36117581 36167746 36437844 37327844 38007814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 16:25:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 11:25:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504021624.j32GOfvu002327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021624 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021623 NCZ000-021830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OUTER BANKS OF NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021623Z - 021830Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...MAINLY ALONG AND S OF CAPE HATTERAS. THREAT AREA APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN SIZE TO WARRANT A WW. LATE THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC FROM NEAR AND S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NWD TO JUST E OF CEDAR ISLAND. STRONG LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS MOVES SLOWLY EWD. THE BEST THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ALONG AND S OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FARTHER NWD TOWARD THE NRN OUTER BANKS. ..DIAL.. 04/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX... 34727687 35667575 35097523 34507617 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 20:19:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 15:19:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504022018.j32KITg8030976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022017 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-022215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022017Z - 022215Z LOW TOPPED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CNTRL/ERN VA NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH VA WITH AN AXIS OF PARTIAL CLEARING FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN VA. WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN VA SSEWD THROUGH SERN VA. ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOWER 60S AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 300 TO 500 J/KG EXTENDS ACROSS ERN VA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE INSTABILITY RESIDES IN A SHALLOW LAYER BETWEEN 0-5 KM...BUT COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THIS LAYER. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORT MAX/JET STREAK SPREAD NEWD. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 04/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... 36527701 36707761 37327793 38577858 38757762 37587642 36847630 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 3 07:05:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Apr 2005 02:05:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504030704.j3374BFJ007472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030703 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-031100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CST SUN APR 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/WRN PA/WV/FAR WRN MD/SWRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 030703Z - 031100Z LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH HEAVIEST SNOW RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. LATEST WV LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN MD WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL NY/NRN NJ. AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD ACROSS ERN PA/SCNTRL NY OVERNIGHT...COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE WRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 45-50 KT MID LEVEL JET. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH HAS SET UP FROM CLE/BKW. IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV/WRN MD AND SWRN PA. SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM YNG/PHD/JST/ELZ AS OF 07Z...WITH WET BULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILES...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN PA/ERN OH AND INTO PORTIONS OF WV. THE DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER WILL FAVOR OCNLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 04/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 41558194 40298173 37888104 37668032 38417921 40247837 41657774 42727780 43307787 43397841 43277917 42668172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 03:38:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2005 22:38:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504070337.j373b09s021275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070336 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-070430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136... VALID 070336Z - 070430Z WW 136 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT TRAINING STORMS LOCATED FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL/FAR SWRN GA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY RANGING FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO TRAIN NEWD ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM OVER THE NRN GULF...OFF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST...TO FAR SERN AL /HOUSTON COUNTY/ AND THEN NNEWD INTO WRN GA. 00Z RUC SHOWED A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH THIS CONFLUENCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 60 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET NWRN GULF WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND THE FL PANHANDLE. ..PETERS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31668624 31628470 29858497 29868643 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 04:53:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2005 23:53:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504070452.j374qDQv003942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070450 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/MUCH OF AL/WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135... VALID 070450Z - 070545Z DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO SERN MS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL AL. HAIL WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL/ERN AL AND WRN GA...IF CURRENT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL/WRN AL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM WALKER COUNTY AL TO CHOCTAW COUNTY AL MOVING TO THE ENE AT 35-40 KT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENE ACROSS SERN AR/MS ATTM ALONG WITH UPWARD MOTION WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER AL. 03Z RUC SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT TO ALONG THE AL/GA LINE BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY ATTM AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT IS MARGINAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... 34148809 34738490 32288462 30558774 30799007 31049005 31828898 32788827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 08:55:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 03:55:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504070854.j378sZtM014102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070853 FLZ000-071100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE / N FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070853Z - 071100Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOIST /MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ERN GULF...WHICH CONTINUES ADVECTING NWD AHEAD OF PERSISTENT NNE-SSW CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN GA INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN GA AND INTO N FL ABOVE A SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS INDICATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. LATEST AREA VWPS SHOW FAVORABLY-STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES -- WITH FLOW STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY ETA / RUC PFCS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL / ERN FL PANHANDLE COAST...AND MAY EXPAND ENEWD INTO PARTS OF N FL LATER THIS MORNING. ..GOSS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 30508484 30588385 30468321 30288295 29708340 30118402 30098433 29608505 29668530 29848537 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 12:55:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 07:55:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504071253.j37Crp4d006848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071252 FLZ000-071445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE / NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 071252Z - 071445Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE E CENTRAL AND NERN GULF OF MEXICO NNEWD ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO E CENTRAL AND SERN GA. ALONG WITH ONGOING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL COASTAL BEND AND EVENTUALLY INTO N FL. MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS REVEALED BY AREA VWPS AND AREA 12Z RAOBS. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...PERSISTENT TRAINING OF STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO GA. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT EWD ACCELERATION OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...INCLUDING PERSISTENT / LARGE SUPERCELL JUST SW OF AAF /APALACHICOLA FL/. INLAND AIRMASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERN GULF CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS N FL. NONETHELESS...WITH STORMS LIKELY MOVING ONSHORE OVER COASTAL NWRN FL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD EXIST. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONGOING THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT BY SOMEWHAT MORE RAPID EWD MOTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE EXHIBITED RECENTLY. ..GOSS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30188405 30318359 30408281 30108234 29478212 28688262 29128279 29198309 29708348 29978374 29668497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 16:06:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 11:06:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504071605.j37G5DJa008318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071603 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-071800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN GA...E-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL/NERN AL...MIDDLE/SERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071603Z - 071800Z TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. SMALL/BRIEF TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AMIDST CLOUD BREAKS...DIABATIC HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CINH ACROSS THIS REGION. MODIFIED FFC RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARCELS SHOULD BE SFC BASED ATTM. MLCAPES SHOULD RISE INTO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...AS SFC TEMPS RISE THROUGH MID 60S/LOWER 70S F WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE WITH DISTANCE FROM DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS...REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WRN TN. THIS SHEAR PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN CURRENT VWP DATA. FCST HODOGRAPHS FROM RUC ALSO EXPAND WITH SEWD EXTENT OVER REGION...WITH 0-1 KM SRH LESS THAN 50 J/KG IN MID TN BUT EXCEEDING 200 J/KG AROUND ATL...IN 17-19Z TIME FRAME. THEREFORE... PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE GREATER OVER GA AND ADJACENT AL BORDER PORTION OF AREA THAN N-CENTRAL AL OR MIDDLE TN. NEGATIVE SFC THETAE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT -- NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME WRN AL -- SHOULD REDUCE SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM W-E ACROSS NRN AL THIS AFTERNOON. ..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33068600 34068680 34558698 35938767 36348622 36068556 34918428 33918394 33008437 32468496 32488576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 16:48:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 11:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504071647.j37GlDZv016261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071646 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0518 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SC...CENTRAL/ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071646Z - 071845Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CAROLINAS...ALONG AND E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRE-EXISTING/NONSEVERE CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...ISOLATED HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING AND SBCINH DIMINISHING RAPIDLY E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM GSO...30 W SOP...30 SW FLO...NBC...AS OF 1630Z. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR REINTENSIFICATION AND BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT WITHIN LINE...AS WELL AS FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWS TO ITS E WHERE DEEPENING TCU AND SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ATTM IN VIS/REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 35-40 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVIATE RIGHTWARD -- MOVING NE TO ENE -- MAY ROTATE AMIDST 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG...BASED ON PRE-STORM VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS. AS HEATING CONTINUES...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 DEG F RANGE. ASSOCIATED DEEPER MIXING OF SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL AUGMENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33478014 34758043 35498008 36298004 36587874 36467712 35257718 34297768 33487837 32957908 32388049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 17:02:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 12:02:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504071701.j37H1cMI029821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071700 FLZ000-GAZ000-071900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN FL...SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137... VALID 071700Z - 071900Z OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED ACROSS MOST OF GA COAST...WHILE TSTMS OVER LAND HAVE WEAKENED ALONG/BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS GA AND NRN FL. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER FL...AS WELL AS SEVERE TSTMS MOVING INLAND W COAST...AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE...WHICH IS MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS REGIME GIVEN 75-150 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND 35-45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT IN PRE-STORM VWP. BOW ECHO -- EVIDENT AT 17Z ABOUT 90 NM ENE TPA OVER OPEN GULF WATERS -- MAY MOVE ONSHORE PORTIONS CITRUS/HERNANDO/LEVY COUNTIES IN 19-20Z TIME FRAME WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE RISK...THEN INLAND TOWARD OCF BY ABOUT 21Z. ..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 27388311 30308310 31688106 28798105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 20:21:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 15:21:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504072019.j37KJpJ5032057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072018 FLZ000-GAZ000-072145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137... VALID 072018Z - 072145Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND -- MOVING EWD ACROSS ST JOHNS/PUTNAM/MARION/CITRUS COUNTIES ATTM WITH A FEW EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAT WOULD COVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL S OF WW 137. NRN FL CONVECTIVE BAND GENERALLY IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS NRN FL IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION IN INFLOW LAYER...AND STRONG HEATING NOW NEAR DIURNAL PEAK. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE...WHICH WILL HOLD STEADY IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. SOME SFC VEERING HAS DIMINISHED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH 0-6 KM VALUES NOW IN 30-35 KT RANGE...HOWEVER HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BOWS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...GIVEN ROUGHLY 30 DEG OR MORE RIGHTWARD DEVIANCE IN MOTION. 0-1 KM SRH UP TO 150-200 J/KG RANGE REMAIN POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER FL W COAST -- FROM TBW AREA SWD -- AND OVER INLAND SRN/CENTRAL FL MAY BE INCREASING. VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY PROFILES ARE SIMILARLY FAVORABLE OVER THOSE AREAS. DISCRETE DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER KISSIMMEE VALLEY N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND INVOF SEA BREEZE INTERSECTION WITH HORIZONTAL ROLLS SW OF THAT LAKE. COMPLEX OF TSTMS AROUND 100 WSW SRQ -- AS OF 20Z -- ALSO MAY AFFECT W COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 28358067 27948049 27108025 26388082 25968133 25998180 26798229 26998271 27388311 30308310 31688106 28798105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 21:54:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 16:54:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504072153.j37Lr8p9023650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072152 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-072215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072152Z - 072215Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF GA. MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EAST OF CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN MS/WRN TN...HAS ALLOWED STRONG SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S/ ACROSS MUCH OF WRN GA WITHIN MOIST AXIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THIS AXIS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM SERN AL INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN GA SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADING EWD ATOP THIS REGION SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. THUS...MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER NWWD ACROSS NWRN GA/NERN AL...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS SINCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. ..PETERS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 34168474 34388394 33808295 32258242 30918244 30738357 30698485 31278515 33508515 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 23:22:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 18:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504072321.j37NL8aZ026513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072320 FLZ000-080015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138... VALID 072320Z - 080015Z DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THROUGH 00-01Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF PIE TO DAB. AT 2305Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LEWP EXTENDING FROM WRN POLK COUNTY SWWD TO OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WEST OF FMY OR 65 SSW SRQ. A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED BOW STRUCTURES WERE LOCATED WITHIN THIS LINE...1) MOVING ENEWD INTO WRN POLK COUNTY AT 45 KT AND 2) OVER SARASOTA/ MANATEE COUNTIES MOVING ENE AT 40 KT. TAMPA VAD WIND DATA INDICATED 50 KT WSWLY WINDS JUST ABOVE 1 KM IN THE POST-BOW ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT SPEED OF THESE BOW STRUCTURES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS NEAR 1 KM INDICATE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THESE STORMS MOVE ENEWD THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..PETERS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27738278 28118240 28578203 29228190 29678080 27077965 25858096 25728193 26348248 27128283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 01:08:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 20:08:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504080107.j38175X0006710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080106 FLZ000-080200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138... VALID 080106Z - 080200Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 138...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 NW FMY TO 25 N MLB. AT 0045Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED BOW SEGMENTS INCLUDING AT LEAST TWO BOWS ALONG THE FL COAST AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS LEWP WITH INDIVIDUAL BOW SEGMENTS TRACKING EWD AT 40-45 KT FROM SRN BREVARD TO GLADES COUNTIES AND EWD TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG STORM CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER LEE COUNTY WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WHILE A SECOND STRONG STORM /75 MILES WEST OF COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY/ WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE COAST AROUND 02Z. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27398183 27938126 28688032 27077965 25858096 25728193 26348248 26558262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 02:04:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 21:04:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504080203.j3823I7I012157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080202 FLZ000-080230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138... VALID 080202Z - 080230Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON REPLACING WW 138 OVER SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ST LUCIE COUNTY SWWD TO LEE COUNTY AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MOVES ESEWD. AIR MASS EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 27598033 26967990 25368005 24708050 24438147 24608193 25448171 26428225 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 03:49:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 22:49:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504080347.j383lmjd017330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080347 FLZ000-080445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139... VALID 080347Z - 080445Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN FL THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ISOLATED WATER SPOUTS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER KEYS THROUGH 05-06Z. KEY WEST RADAR SHOWED TWO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...1) 30 WNW EYW AND 2) 30 WSW EYW WITH BOTH INDICATING A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT NEAR 20 KT. THE SRN SUPERCELL HAS REMAINED THE STRONGEST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...WHILE THE NRN STORM HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...BUT MAY POSE A WATER SPOUT THREAT TO THE LOWER KEYS BY 05-06Z. AT 0330Z...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM MARTIN TO COLLIER COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF AT 100 NW EYW WITH EMBEDDED BOW STRUCTURES CONTINUED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA. INDIVIDUAL BOWS ARE TRACKING AT SPEEDS FROM 30-40 KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN FL AND THE KEYS...WHILE INSTABILITY WAS MARGINAL ACROSS THE REST OF SRN FL. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER WW 139 AND THIS INSTABILITY DISTRIBUTION SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE OVER SWRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 26848110 27788011 26047882 25187994 24448100 24108174 25898298 26118235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 08:28:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 03:28:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504080827.j388RQH6020400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080826 FLZ000-080930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139... VALID 080826Z - 080930Z ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND WW 139 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. AS OF 0810Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TRAILING PORTION OF QUASI-LINEAR MCS ORIENTED WSW-ENE ACROSS FAR SRN FL PENINSULA FROM NEAR MIA TO APPROXIMATELY 60 WSW MIA. THOUGH A FEW BOWING STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM COLD POOL HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS BY 10-15 MILES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MAJORITY OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE COLD POOL...EFFECTIVELY REDUCING DAMAGING WIND THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MCS SHIFTS SWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF S FL AND THE KEYS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND WW 139 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. ..MEAD.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 25898292 27778008 26037891 24208175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 21:53:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 16:53:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504082151.j38Lpqqq001645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082150 CAZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082150Z - 082245Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. DEEP WSWLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN ORE/NRN CA COAST WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 500 MB WILL CONTINUE MAINTAIN SSELY BARRIER FLOW AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. 20Z RUC SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOWED MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/KG...BUT MODIFIED FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE VALLEY RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 600-700 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WHILE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR... 39462239 40502273 40842247 40862183 40022139 39282100 38502046 38072050 37772106 37932153 38272177 38732203 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 22:25:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 17:25:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504082224.j38MOOQ5026793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082223 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-090000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SERN CO INTO ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082223Z - 090000Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NNEWD INTO CENTRAL/SERN WY AND ERN CO...IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...HIGH BASED AND MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN DRY 10 HOUR FUELS AND THE EXPECTED STRONG WIND GUSTS. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES NEWD. A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN FURTHER HIGH BASED STORMS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUPPORTING STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE RELATED STORMS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET OVER ERN UT/SRN WY INTO CO WILL ENHANCE THE WIND SPEEDS GIVEN A STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW... 42910805 43580770 43720669 43210531 41940445 40000343 38880296 37680272 37450335 37590405 38340419 39370462 41050568 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 19:16:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 14:16:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504161914.j3GJEpgp005297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161913 NMZ000-162145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN...NRN...AND CNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161913Z - 162145Z TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN/NRN AND CNTRL NM THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIMITING OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION...HAIL WILL BE QUITE LIKELY. LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL N-S FRONTAL ZONE...AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN AND SCNTRL NM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. PRESENTLY...WIND DIRECTION IN THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER VEERS FROM SELY TO SWLY AND OVERALL VECTOR SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN POORLY ORGANIZED AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SHEAR...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING...MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY GIVEN HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND DRY SUB CLOUD ENVIRONMENT. ..CARBIN.. 04/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 33290801 33890840 35570864 36060825 36660719 36890598 36750467 35650467 35030460 34590471 33750477 33150504 32640630 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 23:05:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 18:05:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504162303.j3GN3hM6015512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162302 COZ000-NMZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162302Z - 170100Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO. TWO MAIN AREAS FOR A MARGINAL SVR THREAT WILL BE...1) JUST NORTH OF THE RATON RIDGE REGION OF FAR SERN CO...AND 2) JUST NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE/SOUTH DENVER METRO AREA. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A WW AND/OR AN OUTLOOK AMENDMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SFC AND RADAR ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...JUST SOUTH OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HALF HOUR ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LOW OVER WRN ELBERT CO. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT EAST OF THIS STORM...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 750 J/KG. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...AROUND 30 KTS PER RECENT PUEBLO VWP...GIVEN LACK OF WLY FLOW GREATER THAN 20 KTS IN THE 6-8 KM LAYER. THUS...ONLY A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS OR ANY OTHER STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS LOW CENTER. FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LOCATED ON AND JUST NORTH SIDE OF THE RATON RIDGE WILL CONTINUED TO FAVOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SVR THREAT FOR THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 04/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 39160297 39740394 39720449 39040480 38340462 37650450 37210437 36960416 36910346 36960324 37130286 37870276 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 23:10:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 18:10:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504162308.j3GN8MT8017397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162307 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162307Z - 170100Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS..IN A MESOBETA SCALE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO. 23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MESOLOW OVER PALO ALTO COUNTY...AT INTERSECTION OF FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SUX AREA INTO NERN NEB AND IS MOVING SEWD APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SHARPLY DEFINED SEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN KOSSUTH COUNTY TO JASPER COUNTY...THEN EWD ALONG I-80 TO CEDAR COUNTY. EXPECT NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW SEGMENT N OF DSM TO DRIFT NEWD. LARGEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WOULD BE WITH ANY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED STORM THAT CAN FORM NEAR MESOLOW OR NEARBY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THEN DEVIATE RIGHTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED IN BOUNDARY LAYER. LINE OF CU/TCU IS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ALONG COLD FRONT AND MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO TSTMS...BUT WITH WEAKER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM SWLY SFC FLOW IN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR. OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES ARE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE ERN EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY IS JUXTAPOSED WITH RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW. SLA PROFILER AND CMX VWP EACH APPEAR TO BE SAMPLING THIS ZONE WELL AS OF 22Z...WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN 150-250 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 40-50 KT. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS SWD FROM SFC LOW ACROSS IA. MLCAPES ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG IN AREA OF CLEARING BETWEEN SFC LOW AND SWRN IA ELEVATED SHOWERS...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS. MARGINAL MIDLEVEL FLOWS SUGGEST POOR PRECIP VENTILATION ALOFT AND TRANSITION TO MESSY HP OR BOW STRUCTURE AS A STORM MATURES. ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43369469 43519435 43529392 43259340 42649319 42049329 41869400 41969452 42089550 42429655 42929552 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 18:42:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 13:42:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504171840.j3HIerId007809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171839 NEZ000-SDZ000-172115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL SD...NCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171839Z - 172115Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME FROM NWRN/NCENTRAL SD SWD INTO NCENTRAL NEB. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF LATER TRENDS INDICATE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THREAT. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO FAR WRN SD/NWRN NEB PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ESEWD FROM A SFC LOW OVER SERN MT TO PIERRE TO YANKTON SD. WARM/MOIST AREA BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS ALREADY LED TO OVER 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OBSERVED IN THE AREA. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH 20-25 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW PER REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL SUPPORT 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...IF STORMS DEVELOP. MODIFIED 15Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES /MID 80S/ BEFORE CINH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR WARM FRONT. THE STRENGTH OF THE CURRENT CINH IS ALSO EVIDENT GIVEN LACK OF CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES/DEWPTS...ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY INITIATE IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ISOLATED STORM INITIATION WILL BE WHERE THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION ENHANCES CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION OF THE DRYLINE...THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL SD...TO THE NE OF THE RAP AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42369917 44019943 45610115 45390224 44670261 43490267 42430253 42270098 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 19:28:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 14:28:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504171926.j3HJQaAg030636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171925 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...WRN KS...OK/TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171925Z - 172200Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO AND NERN NM...EWD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE OK AND TX PNHDLS. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR RETURNS AND ANALYSIS DATA ACROSS SERN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LONG-LOOP WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE IS PARTLY COMPOSED OF A RESIDUAL MCV FROM COMPLEX OF STORMS OCCURRING OVER NM/CO YESTERDAY. POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTENING AMONG THE BANDS OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT WERE AIDING IN GRADUAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. TSTM CELLS NOW APPEAR TO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY CO...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. DIURNAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH BACKGROUND ASCENT FROM THE MCV WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW OF 15-20KT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS MARGINAL. SLIGHTLY STRONGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES EXIST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...OVER PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL. BACKGROUND CIRCULATION COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY INCREASES MODESTLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTION SPREADING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/CO WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM UNION COUNTY NM TO BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES IN CO...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37930434 37130450 35990357 35750211 35410073 36539982 37329956 37829954 38349964 39209986 39840075 39910143 39990226 39840323 39290337 38470353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 19:53:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 14:53:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504171951.j3HJpTWf010051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171950 NMZ000-172215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171950Z - 172215Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL AND ERN NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN INITIATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NM WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CB DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SINCE 19Z/1PM MDT. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL AND SCNTRL NM COUPLED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WERE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKLY CAPPED AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. WHILE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS ON SATURDAY...STRONGER WLY FLOW OF 25-30KT WAS SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL AND SCNTRL NM...IN THE BASE OF MCV CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER CO. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED CELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO GUSTY OUTFLOWS. GIVEN DEEP LAYER WLY STEERING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN/SERN PLAINS OF NM THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 36180651 36570569 36710507 36710468 36500424 35970386 35720318 35020314 32950316 32340410 32580507 32660588 32960701 32970749 33430805 33910818 34660800 34950791 35340779 35870711 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 21:43:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 16:43:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504172141.j3HLfouY028749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172140 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-172345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...FAR SWRN/SCENTRAL MN...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172140Z - 172345Z ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR FSD EWD ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW /LESS THAN 20 KTS OBSERVED FROM 4-6 KM ON REGIONAL PROFILERS/...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-7.5 DEG C/KM AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS. DIURNAL DECOUPLING SHOULD AID IN A DIMINISHING ISOLATED SVR THREAT BEYOND 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43709348 43809504 43909644 43629685 43389709 42849685 42739617 43109428 43229357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 23:31:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 18:31:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504172331.j3HNV8pL012655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172328 TXZ000-NMZ000-180130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NM...FAR W TX AND TRANS-PECOS AREA...WRN PORTIONS TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159... VALID 172328Z - 180130Z CONTINUE WW. ISOLATED...APPARENTLY HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL HAS TURNED SHARPLY RIGHTWARD AND IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN EDDY COUNTY ATTM WITH DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS LIKELY. OTHER ACTIVITY -- IN BROKEN BAND FROM NERN SOCORRO TO SRN QUAY COUNTIES...MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS WW 158 INTO WW 159. 1.75 INCH HAIL REPORTED WITHIN PAST HOUR BOTH FROM EDDY COUNTY SUPERCELL AND FROM TSTMS OVER DE BACA COUNTY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM ERN UNION COUNTY NM SSWWD TO NEAR ROW THEN SSEWD TOWARD DAVIS MOUNTAINS. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AHEAD OF DRYLINE -- INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...OUTFLOW-DOMINANT/FORWARD-PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTERS AND BOWS. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ESTIMATED IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 50S F. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD AUGMENT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS TO REACH SFC. PRESSURE FALLS AND RELATED SELY FLOW ACROSS SERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OVER THAT AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGEST BENEATH 35-45 KT MIDLEVEL JET MAX ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WW. RUC HODOGRAPH YIELDS 0-3 KM SRH 250-300 J/KG OVER SERN NM...DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT AS SFC FLOW BECOMES RELATIVELY VEERED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30890267 30890554 34960556 34980256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 02:09:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 21:09:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504180219.j3I2JZ7W023199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180218 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW KS...EXTREME NWRN OK...ERN OK PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE...PART OF EXTREME E-CENTRAL NM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159... VALID 180218Z - 180345Z THAT PORTION OF WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINES...AS OUTLINED BELOW...SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL TSTMS HAVE PASSED. ACTIVITY MAY BE E OF REMAINING PORTIONS WW BEFORE SCHEDULED 4Z EXPIRATION...AT WHICH TIME REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY BE CANCELED. LINE OF NONSEVERE TSTMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN KS...N OF BOW ECHO THAT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS BEAVER COUNTY OK. FARTHER SW...ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS FROM SRN ROBERTS COUNTY TX SWWD TO NEAR CVS...HAS PRODUCED UP TO 2.75 INCH HAIL AROUND AMA. BOW ECHO IN ERN OK PANHANDLE OR A FEW CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN LINE MAY BRIEFLY FLARE TO SEVERE LEVELS...HOWEVER OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...ROOTED NEAR BASE OF 30-35 KT LLJ...SHOULD MAINTAIN GEN TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF SW KS SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND ERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...PRIND ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NECESSARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MEANWHILE...WW CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED TSTM LINES WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED BOTH BY CONVECTION AND BY ONSET OF SFC RADIATIONAL COOLING. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 34730150 34680452 38770333 38770019 38689959 38369926 37919915 37459908 37069923 36669946 36189969 35590010 35030049 34560086 34230131 33900191 33820258 34720262 34710217 34720155 38770018 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 02:30:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 21:30:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504180241.j3I2fJSs001944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180240 TXZ000-NMZ000-180415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NM...FAR W TX/TRANS-PECOS REGION...SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159... VALID 180240Z - 180415Z ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINING IN WW ATTM IS INVOF TX/NM BORDER WNW INK...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ALONG/E OF DRYLINE...OVER ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. PROBABLE HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL THAT HAD MOVED SSEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN EDDY COUNTY MERGED WITH INCREASING/PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION TO ITS S...THEN RE-EMERGED AND IS MOVING SSEWD TOWARD LOVING COUNTY TX. ANOTHER APPARENT HP SUPERCELL HAS EVOLVED OVER S-CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY...S CNM...AND WILL TURN RIGHTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NERN CULBERSON AND NRN REEVES COUNTIES TX. DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MODIFIED VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST STORM-RELATIVE LOW LEVEL FLOWS AS HIGH AS 40-50 KT...GIVEN 25-35 KT SLY LLJ. INCREASING SBCIN WILL RESULT FROM DIABATIC SFC COOLING OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS...RESULTING IN ONGOING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG BECOMING MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. PRIND BULK OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 4Z...BUT MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IF NECESSARY. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30900262 30880553 34930556 34960260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 17:00:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 12:00:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504181710.j3IHAwMr012019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181708 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-181915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/NERN KS INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181708Z - 181915Z SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 1650Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT DEVELOPING NWD INTO ERN NEB...AHEAD OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY SW OF GRI. STRONG INSOLATION WITHIN THIS REGION COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WILL CONCURRENTLY WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF VORTICITY CENTER GENERALLY N OF I-80 EXHIBIT STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WINDS...HOWEVER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS LARGELY MERIDIONAL AND RELATIVELY WEAK. FARTHER S OVER SERN NEB INTO NERN KS...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BASE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KT SPEED MAXIMUM WILL RESULT IN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 19 OR 20Z. ..MEAD.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 40379762 41349787 41949777 42259715 42049615 41219577 40579560 39939554 39669590 39369660 39799760 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 19:00:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 14:00:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504181911.j3IJB6EM012066@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181909 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-182115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX SOUTH PLAINS/SWRN TX AND SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181909Z - 182115Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY 21Z ALONG TWO SEPARATE DRYLINES...ONE OVER ERN NM...AND THE OTHER EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO THE WRN TX SOUTH PLAINS/SWRN TX. ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANNON AFB 88-D SHOWS A DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE OVER ERN NM/FAR WRN TX. THE WRN MOST /PRIMARY/ DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM EXTREME SERN CO...TO JUST EAST OF CLAYTON SWWD TO GUADALUPE COUNTY...THEN SWD TO THE ERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS TO JUST WEST OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS. A SECONDARY DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER FAR SERN CO SWWD TO CVS TO HOB TO THE DAVIS MTNS. DRIER LOW LEVELS HAS LEAD TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE WRN DRYLINE. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SECONDARY /ERN MOST/ DRYLINE WAS MORE UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OBSERVED. RECENT TRENDS IN THE TCU AND WSM PROFILERS SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL /4-5 KM/ 30-35 KT SPEED MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF BOTH DRYLINES...AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE OVER WRN NM COMBINED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TWO DRYLINES...AND WEAKENING CINH SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ONE OR BOTH DRYLINES BETWEEN 20-21Z. RECENT SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS POTENTIAL WITH CU DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH DRYLINES OVER ERN NM AND TOWERING CU OVER DAVIS MTNS. AHEAD OF WRN MOST DRYLINE ACROSS ECENTRAL/SERN NM...HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND MORE LIMITED MLCAPE/HIGHER DCAPE SUGGESTS THAT MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE SVR HAIL THREAT VERY MINIMAL. FARTHER EAST...AHEAD OF THE ERN MOST DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS SWD ITO THE WRN TX SOUTH PLAINS/SWRN TX....GREATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 30590413 32580454 34030427 35430331 36370256 37110200 37680090 37310036 34180089 30440243 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 21:10:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 16:10:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182121.j3ILL3IP003757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182120 MNZ000-NDZ000-182315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182120Z - 182315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY 00Z ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SEWD MOVING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SW-NE OVER THE AREA. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH DUE TO MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. RECENT SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CU HAS FORMED ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF JMS TO WEST OF INL. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S HAS LEAD TO MINIMAL CINH REMAINING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. ELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 750 MB WITH TEMP/DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 35-40 DEG BENEATH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG FAVORING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO MODEST SWLY FLOW AROUND 30 KTS IN THE MID LEVELS BENEATH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL LIMIT SVR HAIL THREAT. DESPITE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL MITIGATE LARGER SCALE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BEYOND DIURNAL COOLING/02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 48989576 48049874 47809946 47339943 47109891 47559537 47799441 48859468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 22:45:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 17:45:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182256.j3IMuBL7004210@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182255 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES/TX SOUTH PLAINS...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 182255Z - 190100Z GIVEN PLACEMENT OF ERN DRYLINE ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF WW 160 TX/NM BORDER...AND POTENTIAL INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS ERN DRYLINE MERGES WITH WRN DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS ECENTRAL NM...ALL AREAS OF WW 160 WILL REMAIN VALID ATTM. CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY WHILE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 160 THROUGH 01Z. SVR HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH LEFT SPLITTING STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE OTHER STRONG STORMS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS OVER FAR SWRN KS. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THEREFORE...THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 160 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. FURTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NRN MX MAY PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN TX/FAR SERN NM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION PRIOR TO 01Z WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN FAR SERN NM SWD TO JUST EAST OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY AN ISOLATED/LIMITED AREA FOR POTENTIAL SVR TSTM INITIATION IS APPARENT AND THUS ANOTHER WW SOUTH OF WW 160 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 37750166 33890313 33000419 31270381 31390270 33810250 33910107 37849944 38150137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 22:46:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 17:46:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182257.j3IMvALV004660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182256 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD...WRN NEB...NERN CO...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182256Z - 190130Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 3Z IN 40-50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 50 SSE GLD...SNY...AIA...PHP. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TO BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ANY GIVEN TSTM MAY INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET...WHEN SFC BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE NEAR AFOREMENTIONED AXIS...AND QUASISTATIONARY NOW THAT HEATING/MIXING HAS PEAKED. DRYLINE MAY RETREAT SLOWLY WWD OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...THEREFORE THREAT ZONE IS DRAWN ON BOTH SIDES OF PRESENT ANALYSIS POSITION. GROWING CB/DEEP TCU EVIDENT AS OF 2230Z ON VIS IMAGERY IN SEVERAL LOCALES ALONG THIS DRYLINE...PARTICULARLY AROUND GLD...SNY...WRN SHERIDAN COUNTY NEB...AND PINE RIDGE RESERVATION S OF SD BADLANDS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR...WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS AND HAIL TO SFC. PROFILER/VWP HODOGRAPHS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS BUT STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES AND SHORT-LIVED MIDLEVEL ROTATION. LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT..AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY IN MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42280296 43190238 43830166 43700103 43250099 42250147 41760160 40930120 39140083 38460152 39250224 41260333 42120306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 22:47:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 17:47:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182257.j3IMvRpv004781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182255 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES/TX SOUTH PLAINS...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 182255Z - 190100Z GIVEN PLACEMENT OF ERN DRYLINE ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF WW 160 TX/NM BORDER...AND POTENTIAL INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS ERN DRYLINE MERGES WITH WRN DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS ECENTRAL NM...ALL AREAS OF WW 160 WILL REMAIN VALID ATTM. CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY WHILE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 160 THROUGH 01Z. SVR HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH LEFT SPLITTING STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE OTHER STRONG STORMS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS OVER FAR SWRN KS. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THEREFORE...THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 160 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. FURTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NRN MX MAY PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN TX/FAR SERN NM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION PRIOR TO 01Z WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN FAR SERN NM SWD TO JUST EAST OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY AN ISOLATED/LIMITED AREA FOR POTENTIAL SVR TSTM INITIATION IS APPARENT AND THUS ANOTHER WW SOUTH OF WW 160 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 37750166 33890313 33000419 31270381 31390270 33810250 33910107 37849944 38150137  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 22:48:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 17:48:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182258.j3IMwmMG005987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182256 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD...WRN NEB...NERN CO...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182256Z - 190130Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 3Z IN 40-50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 50 SSE GLD...SNY...AIA...PHP. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TO BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ANY GIVEN TSTM MAY INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET...WHEN SFC BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE NEAR AFOREMENTIONED AXIS...AND QUASISTATIONARY NOW THAT HEATING/MIXING HAS PEAKED. DRYLINE MAY RETREAT SLOWLY WWD OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...THEREFORE THREAT ZONE IS DRAWN ON BOTH SIDES OF PRESENT ANALYSIS POSITION. GROWING CB/DEEP TCU EVIDENT AS OF 2230Z ON VIS IMAGERY IN SEVERAL LOCALES ALONG THIS DRYLINE...PARTICULARLY AROUND GLD...SNY...WRN SHERIDAN COUNTY NEB...AND PINE RIDGE RESERVATION S OF SD BADLANDS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR...WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS AND HAIL TO SFC. PROFILER/VWP HODOGRAPHS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS BUT STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES AND SHORT-LIVED MIDLEVEL ROTATION. LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT..AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY IN MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42280296 43190238 43830166 43700103 43250099 42250147 41760160 40930120 39140083 38460152 39250224 41260333 42120306  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 23:17:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 18:17:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182327.j3INRMjZ023019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182326 MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... VALID 182326Z - 190130Z WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/E OF PRIMARY ARC OF CONVECTION...WHICH CONSISTS AT 23Z OF NUMEROUS STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS OVER WRN PORTION WW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PIVOT NEWD AND NWD WHILE ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING/DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG SRN END OF COMPLEX...WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD IN TRAIN ECHO FASHION. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS WILL CAUSE REPEATED OCCURRENCES OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES IN SOME LOCALES FROM FILLMORE/SALINE COUNTIES NEWD TO DODGE COUNTY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS CLAY/WEBSTER COUNTIES...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN/NRN NUCKOLLS COUNTY OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE EACH FAVOR SUPERCELLS NEAR SRN END OF MCS...THEREFORE DAMAGING HAIL POTENTIAL IS GREATEST OVER SRN HALF OF WW. THIS AREA IS SE OF CENTER OF MID/UPPER CIRCULATION WHERE GEOMETRY OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS RESULTS IN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCED BULK SHEARS. THIS AREA IS SAMPLED WELL BY FBY PROFILER...WITH 150-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT NWD PAST OMA-OLU LINE INTO NERN NEB. MCS AND PRECEDING CONVECTION NOW NEAR MO RIVER SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS REMAINDER ERN NEB INTO IA NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHER DEEP TCU EVIDENT FROM OTOE COUNTY SWD INTO NERN KS MAY ALSO FORM DISCRETE STMS...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...OVER EXTREME SERN NEB AND SWRN IA. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 40029758 43519773 43509528 40029528 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 23:34:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 18:34:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182344.j3INia4B000902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182343 OKZ000-TXZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN OK...NWRN TX AND THE ERN TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182343Z - 190045Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS/SERN TX PANHANDLE /INSIDE WW 160/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND MAY EFFECT PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN OK/NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NWRN TX THROUGH BEFORE 00-02Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SE OF LBB IN THE NEXT HOUR. THUS ANOTHER SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE ANVILS OF A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SVR STORMS OVER HALE/SWISHER COUNTIES. CURRENT/FCST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SVR THREAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 160 BY 0030Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OUTSIDE OF WW 160 INDICATE MINIMAL SBCINH /LESS THAN 50 J/KG/ AT LEAST TO THE LATITUDE OF GREER COUNTY OK SWD TO KNOX COUNTY TX. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z...BEFORE A GRADUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN INHIBITION ENSUES. CONVECTION OVER THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS /NORTH OF LUBBOCK/ NOW BEING SUPPORTED BY SMALL STRATIFORM PRECIP REGION MAY BECOME MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED IN THE NEXT HOUR LOCALLY ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INCREASING CINH IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ALONG WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT MUCH EAST OF WW 160. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34369927 35209925 35250009 35000055 34450075 33820121 33460134 33090141 32950096 33119997 33689920 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 01:19:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 20:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504190129.j3J1TSjh027249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190127 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-190230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... VALID 190127Z - 190230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...LIKELY IN THE SHAPE OF SLOW MOVING MCS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT. WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY...SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG INCREASING LLJ TONIGHT. THUS...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR REPLACING CURRENT WW /161/. SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BACKBUILDING INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN KS WITH SLOW EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MO RIVER. ..EVANS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 41909658 41819381 39129620 39139890 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 02:00:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 21:00:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504190210.j3J2AdKw016842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190209 TXZ000-OKZ000-190345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE/NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 190209Z - 190345Z SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION OF WW 160 AS MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESE AT AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS NW TX THROUGH CHILDRESS/COTTLE COUNTIES. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL NATURE OF DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THREAT...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR NW/NCNTRL TX. OTHERWISE WW 160 SET TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL EXIST BOTH WITH PROPAGATING MCS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...AS WELL AS TRAILING SEGMENTS ON SW PERIPHERY OF MCS N/NE OF LBB AMIDST INFLUX OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING IN ROUGHLY WEST-ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS FLOYD/MOTLEY/COTTLE/CHILDRESS AS SLY LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON MESOSCALE COLD POOL...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND FURTHER WEST-EAST TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... 33870157 34220150 34680017 34599950 34239933 33689956 33720131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 04:13:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 23:13:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504190423.j3J4Ngnm023791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190423 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190422 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB...SWRN IA...EXTREME NWRN MO...N-CENTRAL/NERN KS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... VALID 190422Z - 190545Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MCS...AND N OF TAIL END OF MCS OVER SERN NEB. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM N OF OMA METRO INTO PORTIONS W-CENTRAL IA...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND MINOR WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. SRN PORTION OF MCS HAS BECOME PRIMARY CONCERN WITH SEVERE TSTMS INVOF KS/NEB BORDER FROM SSE BIE TO NNW CNK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INTENSE LOW LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...GIVEN 50 KT SLY LLJ EVIDENT IN PRE-STORM PROXIMITY DATA FROM FBY PROFILER. EXPECT LLJ TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO SSW...FAVORING BACKBUILDING/TAIL-END CONVECTION. ASSOCIATED WAA AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG PER RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND POTENTIAL FOR MERGING/TRAINING ECHOES IN SUCH ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN HAZARD TOO...WITH LOCALIZED RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ATOP COLD POOL FROM MCS...IN EVEN LOFTIER/ELEVATED WAA REGIME WHERE PARCELS MAY BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO AN LFC. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING INVOF I-80 BETWEEN LNK-YORK...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN. THEREFORE...AREAS BEHIND MCS OVER SERN NEB SHOULD BE CLEARED FROM WW CAUTIOUSLY...IF AT ALL. ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38919606 38919847 41759654 41759401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 06:36:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 01:36:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504190646.j3J6kT2L025193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190645 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN KS/SERN NEB/SWRN IA/NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... VALID 190645Z - 190715Z WW 162 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER IR IMAGERY AND OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES PER REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/NNE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NERN KS/NEB BORDER REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NRN IA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MID MO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS NE TOWARD SRN MN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z TODAY...BUT DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...A NEW WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. ..PETERS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41809656 42169540 42179379 41329353 40279429 39649553 39739795 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 15:39:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 10:39:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504191550.j3JFoErl022426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191548 IAZ000-MOZ000-191645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191548Z - 191645Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1530Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER LUCAS AND MARSHALL COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL/CNTRL IA. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS N-CNTRL IA/S-CNTRL MN. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH INFLOW SOURCE REGION BEING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS ERN IA SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE BASED LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITHIN DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. CHANNEL OF 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF VORTICITY LOBE /PER CURRENT DMX VWP AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40979367 42379322 43139249 43149126 42039073 41169125 40619195 40599298 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 18:54:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 13:54:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504191905.j3JJ56fU021223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191904 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NEB PNHDL/NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191904Z - 192030Z SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS NERN CO/SRN NEB PNHDL INTO SERN WY IS DESTABILIZING AS LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING MORE CELLULAR/CUMULUS IN NATURE. FARTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING INTO TSTMS FROM ABOUT 50 W OF FCL TO JUST NW OF LAR. THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WRAPPING WWD/SWWD AROUND SURFACE LOW /CURRENTLY E OF GLD/ IS MIXING OUT WITH GROWING BOUNDARY-LAYER...AIR MASS IS NONETHELESS DESTABILIZING AS A RESULT OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS...AS WELL AS SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KTS ATOP SURFACE NELY-ELY WINDS...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...WELL-MIXED AND RELATIVELY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ..MEAD.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39530415 39870515 41290564 41820518 41880421 41790346 41360271 40720221 39640286 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 20:47:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 15:47:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504192057.j3JKvNmp008599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192055 TXZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192055Z - 192230Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOCALIZED ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ORIGINATED IN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SWRN TX...WITH LEADING EDGE APPROACHING DRYLINE AND RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE E. SHOULD THIS CONVECTION BECOME ROOTED WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E OF DRYLINE...PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ..MEAD.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29790258 30780292 31470236 31810166 31950085 31469992 30619982 29650014 29250080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 21:57:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 16:57:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504192208.j3JM8Bra007258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192207 TXZ000-OKZ000-192330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W3-CENTRAL/NW TX...EXTREME SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192207Z - 192330Z SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20/00Z WITHIN CORRIDOR LOCATED ALONG AND ABOUT 50 NM E OF SFC DRYLINE...FROM CDS/HOLLIS AREAS SWD TOWARD SJT. DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUPERCELLS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS LOST ALMOST ALL SBCINH ACROSS THIS REGION...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS CLUMPS OF TCU NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY. DEEPEST CONVECTIVE TOWERS ATTM -- AND MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR FIRST CONVECTIVE INITIATION -- IS OVER PORTIONS KNOX/HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES TX. AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY BUOYANT...WITH MOIST SECTOR SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. AS MIXING WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...DEW POINTS MAY RISE INTO LOWER 60S F AS OBSERVED AOA 50 NM E OF SFC DRYLINE. EXPECT LITTLE MOTION BOTH OF DRYLINE AND OF TSTMS THEMSELVES...THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT IS NARROW IN ZONAL EXTENT. MODIFIED RUC HODOGRAPHS YIELD 0-1 KM AGL SRH 150-175 J/KG...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESSES ARE EVIDENT IN FLOW PROFILES IN 2-4 KM LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32380067 34120042 34950026 34909991 34439929 34059912 33579900 32709913 31979947 31639993 31480024 31490057 31700073 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 22:40:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 17:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504192250.j3JMoXMP005936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192249 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0549 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN KS...NWRN OK AND ERN OK PANHANDLE...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...EXTREME E-CENTRAL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192249Z - 200045Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INVOF DRYLINE...FROM NRN EDGE WW 164 NWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL KS...THEN WWD ACROSS NWRN KS TOWARD SERN EDGE OF WW 163. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CYCLONE OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN CO E PUB. WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY CO INTO W-CENTRAL KS VICINITY SCOTT/LANE COUNTIES...INTERSECTING DRYLINE THERE. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM JUST W CDS NWD ACROSS ERN PANHANDLES AND WRN KS TO ROUGHLY 30 W HLC...THEN CURVING NWWD DIFFUSELY INTO SWRN NEB. WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IS ACTING AS PSEUDO DRYLINE AS WELL...WITH 20 DEG ISODROSOTHERMAL DROP ACROSS IT FROM N TO S. HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM TCU NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT AND W OF DRYLINE...WITH WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE. FARTHER S...DRYLINE IS COINCIDENT WITH CONFLUENCE AXIS IN STREAMLINE ANALYSIS...INDICATING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL EWD MIXING/MOVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR. ACCORDINGLY...FLOW BACKED BETWEEN 21-22Z AT CDS AND HHF STATIONS IN SERN AND NERN TX PANHANDLE...RESPECTIVELY. ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC SFC HEATING...IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING OF CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS INVOF DRYLINE...FROM BEAVER COUNTY OK SWD ALMOST TO I-40. PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT AND MAXIMIZED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN A BELT CLOSE TO I-40...GRADUALLY DECREASING NWD. MLCAPES ARE ESTIMATED 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN 30-50 NM E OF DRYLINE. RELATIVE MIN IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED ALONG DRYLINE SEGMENT OVER KS...HOWEVER ANY TSTMS WHICH DO FORM IN THAT CORRIDOR ALSO MAY ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE. ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 35410045 38270049 38790181 38750293 39460231 39770127 39419980 37539909 34989918 34869964 34830010 34860030 34980046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 23:29:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 18:29:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504192339.j3JNdX8P010168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192338 WIZ000-200115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE/ECNTRL WI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 192338Z - 200115Z THREAT MAY EXIST FOR ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SE/ECNTRL WI WITH DEVELOPING/EWD PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTERS. ON FRINGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/SWLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...TSTM CLUSTERS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL WI INVOF I-90/51 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE ISOLD STRONG WIND GUST THREAT ACROSS SE/ECNTRL WI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WITH 30-35 SFC T-TD SPREADS. ..GUYER.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX... 44448879 44608766 43458792 42718799 42618941 42998972 43988940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:12:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:12:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200022.j3K0MT1k006772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200021 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NEB...NERN CO...SERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163... VALID 200021Z - 200215Z CONTINUE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL CRITICAL BOUNDARIES...BEGINNING WITH POLAR FRONT FROM S-CENTRAL SD SWWD ACROSS WRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB...TO NEAR SNY...THEN WSWWD ACROSS EXTREME N-CENTRAL CO. THIS FRONT SEPARATES SFC-BASED PARCELS TO ITS S FROM COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS N...AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD...AIDED BY EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST N OF IT OVER NEB AND S OF CYS. DENSE CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- NOW EVIDENT ALONG THAT FRONT BETWEEN CHERRY COUNTY AND SNY...PRODUCED 2.5 INCH HAIL JUST BEFORE 00Z. DAMAGING HAIL/GUST POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM INTERACTIONS AND AMBIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SECOND FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS AS WARM FRONT FROM SFC LOW E OF PUB...NEWD TO NEAR OGA...THEN ENEWD TOWARD OLU. THIS DEMARCATES SOMEWHAT WARMER/MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND HIGHER LCL AIR TO ITS S. PRONOUNCED ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BETWEEN FRONTS HAS INITIATED/SUPPORTED SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN DEN-LIC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOWS PRODUCED BY THAT ACTIVITY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE AIR MASS BEGINS STABILIZING FROM CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC COOLING. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONTS REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BASED ON COMBINATION OF 00Z LBF RAOB...AND 00Z DEN RAOB MODIFIED TO REMOVE SPURIOUS DEW POINT NEAR 800 MB. VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTS IN 300-400 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM AGL LAYER. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FROM SCATTERED TSTMS N OF NRN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL...ACROSS SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE...SUPPORTED BY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 42860212 42879917 39130268 39090554 39680505 40120489 40580493 40810507 41000524 41200546 41500567 41730567 42140548 42610497 42850439 43000398 43030371 42940252 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:29:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:29:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200039.j3K0dVMb018193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200038 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 200038Z - 200245Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL IA REMAINDER OF EVENING. THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT -- WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW. HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 FROM CNTRL NEB INTO WCNTRL IA EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AIRMASS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 00Z OAX RAOB FEATURING 2500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP 7.8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE...IN PRESENCE OF NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ SUGGESTS THREAT OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/SLOW EWD STORM MOTIONS...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS EVENING...AS TSTMS ULTIMATELY CONGEAL WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42799311 42469270 42219242 41309263 41059536 40969746 41019925 42349928 42709623 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:30:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:30:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200041.j3K0fBJ2019158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200040 OKZ000-TXZ000-200145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... VALID 200040Z - 200145Z DRYLINE REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY NEAR CDS...25 W SJT...20 SW 6R6 LINE AND CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR SUSTAINED CB DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL/WIND. TCU AND OCCASIONAL/BRIEF GLACIATIONS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT PAST 1-2 HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN AREA OF WEAKLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STONEWALL/KING/KNOX/FOARD COUNTIES. HOWEVER... PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED NOW THAT SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND RELATED LIFT HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH. WITHOUT DEEP/SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31790091 34830047 34849853 31799903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:31:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:31:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200041.j3K0fhWC020032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200038 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 200038Z - 200245Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL IA REMAINDER OF EVENING. THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT -- WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW. HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 FROM CNTRL NEB INTO WCNTRL IA EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AIRMASS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 00Z OAX RAOB FEATURING 2500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP 7.8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE...IN PRESENCE OF NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ SUGGESTS THREAT OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/SLOW EWD STORM MOTIONS...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS EVENING...AS TSTMS ULTIMATELY CONGEAL WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42799311 42469270 42219242 41309263 41059536 40969746 41019925 42349928 42709623  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:33:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:33:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200043.j3K0hUdI020988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200040 OKZ000-TXZ000-200145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... VALID 200040Z - 200145Z DRYLINE REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY NEAR CDS...25 W SJT...20 SW 6R6 LINE AND CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR SUSTAINED CB DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL/WIND. TCU AND OCCASIONAL/BRIEF GLACIATIONS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT PAST 1-2 HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN AREA OF WEAKLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STONEWALL/KING/KNOX/FOARD COUNTIES. HOWEVER... PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED NOW THAT SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND RELATED LIFT HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH. WITHOUT DEEP/SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31790091 34830047 34849853 31799903  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:41:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:41:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200051.j3K0pniE026859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200050 TXZ000-200145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165... VALID 200050Z - 200145Z INITIAL SUPERCELL THAT HAD FORMED IN MEX MOUNTAINS SW DRT WAS KILLED BY OUTFLOW FROM SEPARATE LEFT-MOVER TO ITS SE. ISOLATED TSTMS THAT EVOLVED FROM THAT PROCESS ARE CROSSING RIO GRANDE INTO SRN MAVERICK COUNTY...BUT MOVING INTO DIABATICALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SBCAPE IS DECREASING. OTHER CONVECTION THAT HAD FORMED IN SFC MOIST AXIS -- OVER HIGH TERRAIN W OF RIO GRANDE -- APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL. IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...AND WITHOUT DEEP/SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27329865 27300027 30150137 30169967 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 03:47:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 22:47:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200357.j3K3vLkk029738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200356 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166... VALID 200356Z - 200530Z CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF MCS OVER W-CENTRAL NEB. 3Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS POLAR FRONT MOVING SWD ABOUT 10-15 KT THROUGH A MML...MHE...ANW LINE. SEPARATE WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ROUGHLY 40 SW SUX...TO NEAR BBW AND 10 S OGA. AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS REMAINS SUITABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. 30-50 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS INDICATED FOR MCS DEPENDING ON MOTION USED. APEX OF BOW ECHO PRODUCED SUBSEVERE 39 KT GUST AT STATION TIF IN THOMAS COUNTY AT 310Z. HOWEVER...STRONGER GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...AND CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGE -- MAY PENETRATE SHALLOW/DIABATICALLY COOLED LAYER NEAR SFC...ESPECIALLY SERN CHERRY...SRN BROWN AND BLAINE COUNTIES. BASE VELOCITY IMAGERY HAS INDICATED REAR-INFLOW JET CONTAINING SWATH OF 50-65 KT WINDS BELOW 5 KFT AGL. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL DECREASES FATHER N...WHERE POLAR FRONT HAS INFUSED CONSIDERABLE STATIC STABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME SWD BACKBUILDING HAS OCCURRED INTO NWRN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL PROPAGATION IN SRN PORTION OF MCS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SLY INFLOW. CLUSTER OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN AND NEAR ERN EDGE OF WW MAY CONTINUE HAIL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER GREATER HAZARD MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. PROPAGATIONAL/ TRANSLATIONAL COMPONENTS OFFSET CONSIDERABLY RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING/MERGING OF TSTMS WITHIN CLUSTER. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ACROSS SRN SD NEAR POLAR FRONT...AND FROM NERN NEB ACROSS IA...HOWEVER ORGANIZED AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL WW ATM. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40599834 40620133 41260134 41520087 41850055 42150056 42300073 42320110 42490100 42850005 43079975 43339963 43739939 43989883 43979814 43729722 43229668 42899658 42189651 41909707 41739767 41699835 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 06:04:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 01:04:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200615.j3K6FCul020996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200614 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NE...W CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 200614Z - 200815Z AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AS SEVERAL MCS FEATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW BOW ECHO SIGNATURES. WRN BOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS BOUNDARY LEFT BY ERN FEATURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS PIERCE...MADISON AND BOONE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO A HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION AS 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS NWD/NEWD THRU WRN KS INTO S CENTRAL NE...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NE. ANALYSIS OF BOTH THE RUC AND NAM-KF SOUNDINGS SHOW 3-6KM LAYER LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN .95 AND 1.15 INDICATING SMALL HAIL AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41179594 41199664 41249739 41259814 41579837 41899850 42239845 42479828 42649800 42719708 42559626 42059560 41649551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 06:08:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 01:08:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200619.j3K6IwIa023092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200618 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200618 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NE...W CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 200618Z - 200815Z AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AS SEVERAL MCS FEATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW BOW ECHO SIGNATURES. WRN BOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS BOUNDARY LEFT BY ERN FEATURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS PIERCE...MADISON AND BOONE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO A HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION AS 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS NWD/NEWD THRU WRN KS INTO S CENTRAL NE...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NE. ANALYSIS OF BOTH THE RUC AND NAM-KF SOUNDINGS SHOW 3-6KM LAYER LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN .95 AND 1.15 INDICATING SMALL HAIL AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41179594 41199664 41249739 41259814 41579837 41899850 42239845 42479828 42649800 42719708 42559626 42059560 41649551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 17:11:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 12:11:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504201722.j3KHM3bi001601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201721 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...NRN/CNTRL IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201721Z - 201915Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF NERN IL INTO NWRN OH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED... LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY STRONGLY IMPLIES WHAT LITTLE INHIBITION WAS HOLDING BACK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION IS ALL BUT GONE...PER RECENT RAPID CU FIELD EXPANSION. DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH MODEST DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG SWD-MOVING MODIFIED LAKE BREEZE/COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DARROW.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40968849 41108578 41398320 40818256 40218382 39668903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 18:42:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 13:42:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504201853.j3KIrBhA006728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201852 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201852Z - 202045Z THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL INCREASING ACROSS ERN MO INTO WCNTRL IL. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW. ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SEWD AT AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS ECNTRL MO...ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF QUINCY IL TO NEAR COLUMBIA MO. AHEAD OF THIS MCS...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TEMPS CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH BASED UPON RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. IN SPITE OF RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20 KTS OR LESS/...ORGANIZATION OF MCS AND MODEST SWLY INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PROPAGATION THROUGH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40479135 40639036 39998957 38189001 37169141 37559310 38649320 39579240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 18:56:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 13:56:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504201906.j3KJ6TKT017457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201905 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201905Z - 202030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN OH AND NWRN PA... LEADING EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISPLACED INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF PA...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN OH INTO NWRN PA. IN THE LAST HOUR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER LAKE ERIE AND WILL SOON MOVE ONSHORE INTO THIS ZONE OF INSTABILITY WHERE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..DARROW.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41498226 42158018 41527949 40598043 40188209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 20:10:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 15:10:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202020.j3KKKi3W014211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202019 PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND TO NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167...168... VALID 202019Z - 202145Z ...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 167/168... A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED FROM CNTRL PORTIONS OF IND...EWD INTO NERN OH JUST AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 167...WHILE A FASTER SEWD MOVEMENT IS OBSERVED INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 168. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL ENABLE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF EACH WATCH. DIURNAL COOLING LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD SUPPRESS SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF CURRENT WATCHES. ..DARROW.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 40838739 40978426 41348216 41738065 41528021 40848165 40398465 40348714 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 20:18:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 15:18:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202029.j3KKTCPt021087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202028 OKZ000-TXZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202028Z - 202230Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21Z-23Z ACROSS NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...WITH CONDITIONAL/PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OVER WEST TX AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH CORRESPONDING ACCAS OVERSPREADING DEVELOPING/DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD. 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CINH HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY INVOF A CHILDRESS-ABILINE CORRIDOR...AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER EXTENT NWD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR GAGE OK. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THIS REGION...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 2500-3500 J/KG 100 MB MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS...MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR -- 25-30 KTS BASED ON 18Z AMA RAOB AND 88D VADS -- SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO DRYLINE/OCCUR EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34189875 32809860 32450082 33660143 34750123 36610010 36869892 34579879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 20:21:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 15:21:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202032.j3KKW60R023285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202019 PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND TO NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167...168... VALID 202019Z - 202145Z ...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 167/168... A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED FROM CNTRL PORTIONS OF IND...EWD INTO NERN OH JUST AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 167...WHILE A FASTER SEWD MOVEMENT IS OBSERVED INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 168. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL ENABLE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF EACH WATCH. DIURNAL COOLING LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD SUPPRESS SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF CURRENT WATCHES. ..DARROW.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 40838739 40978426 41348216 41738065 41528021 40848165 40398465 40348714  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 20:30:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 15:30:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202040.j3KKedrg029882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202028 OKZ000-TXZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202028Z - 202230Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21Z-23Z ACROSS NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...WITH CONDITIONAL/PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OVER WEST TX AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH CORRESPONDING ACCAS OVERSPREADING DEVELOPING/DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD. 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CINH HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY INVOF A CHILDRESS-ABILINE CORRIDOR...AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER EXTENT NWD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR GAGE OK. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THIS REGION...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 2500-3500 J/KG 100 MB MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS...MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR -- 25-30 KTS BASED ON 18Z AMA RAOB AND 88D VADS -- SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO DRYLINE/OCCUR EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34189875 32809860 32450082 33660143 34750123 36610010 36869892 34579879  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 21:58:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 16:58:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202208.j3KM8jQ5027146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202207 ILZ000-MOZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202207Z - 210000Z ESTABLISHED MCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD ACROSS SE MO AND FAR SRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SHORT TERM. WW NOT EXPECTED GIVEN LIMITED TEMPORAL/MARGINAL NATURE. MCS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL CURRENTLY ALONG/JUST SE OF I-44 IN SE MO...WITH APEX MOVING SEWD AROUND 30-35 KTS. COLD POOL AMIDST SWLY LOW LEVEL FEED /PER CONWAY AND BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILERS/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OF 1000-1500 J/KG DOWNSTREAM OF MCS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SE PROPAGATION AND SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER MCS EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MO BOOTHEEL/EXTREME SRN IL OWING TO LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND SFC RIDGING. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 39029016 38388867 37078950 36969104 37169254 37899265 38099107 38469049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 22:28:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 17:28:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202238.j3KMcfsA012656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202237 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND AND NRN/CNTRL OH INTO WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167...168... VALID 202237Z - 210000Z ISOLD SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS MUCH OF WW 167/WW 168 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING ESE ACROSS NRN IND/NRN AND CNTRL OH/WRN PA. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...INDICATIONS ARE THAT WWS 167/168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATIONS. AIRMASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IND INTO CNTRL OH ACROSS WW 167...WITH ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 750-1000 J/KG AMIDST ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA IN WW 168...ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OWING TO LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...WITH TSTMS ALREADY EXHIBITING THIS TREND. OVERALL EXPECTED DIMINISHING INSTABILITY/INTENSITY TREND SUGGESTS WWS 167/168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40868776 40958586 41068343 41328217 41657911 40687894 39958283 39828769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 23:13:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 18:13:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202324.j3KNO7XK005035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202323 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...EXTREME SERN WY AND NEB PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202323Z - 210100Z TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND AND MOVE NEWD THROUGH NERN CO...EXTREME SERN WY AND THE NEB PNHDL THIS EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS THE STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. ATTM...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE APPARENT MARGINALITY OF INSTABILITY. BUT...IF STORMS INDEED BECOME STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER LOW WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED VCNTY KDEN SINCE 2300Z. LATEST ETA AND WRF SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE NEB PNHDL THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE STORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL...DESPITE WEAK MODELED AND OBSERVED INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39320473 40000476 41070514 42250409 42870327 42750251 41620212 40360223 39530283 39500325 39250429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 23:47:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 18:47:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202358.j3KNw73t024463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202357 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL...NWRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN/SCNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169... VALID 202357Z - 210130Z SVR TSTM WATCH 169 CONTINUES THROUGH 04Z WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. LOW-AMPLITUDE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE PROVIDED SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO AID IN TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPROCK OF THE TX PNHDL NWD INTO SWRN KS. VWP/PROFILERS EXHIBIT SOMEWHAT WEAK 0-6KM PROFILES /LESS THAN 25 KTS/...BUT HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG AIDING IN ANVIL LEVEL VENTING. MOREOVER...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RECENT BACKING OF THE NEAR GROUND FLOW HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST SUPERCELL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT 25W OF KCDS...WITH THE RIGHT MOVING MEMBER REGENERATING OVER NEARLY THE SAME AREA AND LEFT-MOVING MEMBERS MOVING NWD INTO THE NERN TX PNHDL. DOWNSTREAM...ANVILS HAVE PROBABLY ALTERED THE CINH BY COOLING THE TOP OF THE CAPPING LAYER SUFFICIENTLY FOR RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO SWRN OK. FARTHER N...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE LEFT-RIGHT MOVING MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER SWRN KS. PRIND THAT THE DRYLINE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO OSCILLATE BACK WWD...AIDED BY ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STORMS OVER SWRN OK WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO WCNTRL OK. BUT...THE INFLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE...AT LEAST FOR STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE WW. FARTHER N...AXIS OF MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXTENDS NWD INTO SCNTRL KS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS MAY HAVE A LONGER LIFE FROM NWRN OK INTO SCNTRL/SWRN KS THIS EVENING. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE 1/ LOCAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOISTENED/COOLED /IE LOWER LCLS/ AND 2/ BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. ..RACY.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33450133 37960016 37919791 33539920 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 23:54:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 18:54:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210004.j3L04MYv027340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210003 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE IA INTO NW/WCNTRL IL AND FAR NE MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210003Z - 210130Z THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SE IA INTO PORTIONS OF NW/WCNTRL IL AND PERHAPS FAR NE MO. WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED TEMPORAL/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT. TSTMS /CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SE IA/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW IL AND PERHAPS FAR NE MO OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INVOF REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON NRN PERIPHERY OF BUBBLE HIGH/COLD POOL CENTERED ACROSS NE/ECNTRL MO. IN SPITE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /20-30 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR/...AREA REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITHIN THIS RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED AIRMASS OF SE IA AND WCNTRL/NW IL...WITH AVAILABLE MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG PER AUGMENTED 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN... 41829049 41028916 39988943 39819031 40249170 41029177 41439144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 00:16:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 19:16:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210026.j3L0Qc5j006237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210025 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN CO...SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210025Z - 210200Z A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF EXTREME NERN CO...SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS. VSBL IMAGERY AND COORDINATION WITH WFO GLD SUGGESTS THAT THE CU FIELD VCNTY KGLD HAS BECOME CONGESTED /IE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED/ VCNTY WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER TSTMS WILL INITIATE IN THIS AREA OR EVOLVE/DEVELOP EWD FROM UPSTREAM CO ACTIVITY. TO FURTHER ADD UNCERTAINTY...LATEST SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS TAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL ROCKIES LOW NEWD INTO NEB...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ ACROSS NCNTRL KS LATER THIS EVENING. IF STORMS INDEED FORM OR DEVELOP EWD...VERTICAL SHEAR AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS OVER NWRN KS AND THE PROGRESS OF THE UPSTREAM CO ACTIVITY. IF IT APPEARS THAT A ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EVOLVING...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 39810371 40550244 40590101 40619986 39669949 38780066 38640318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 01:35:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 20:35:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210146.j3L1k7rT013119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210145 OKZ000-TXZ000-210315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210145Z - 210315Z THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY THAT THE TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS WRN OK MAY REMAIN INTACT AND POSE A LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS CNTRL OK/NWRN TX BY 03Z. IF STORMS DO NOT WEAKEN SOON...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A SMALL PART OF CNTRL OK/NWRN TX. TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED/EVOLVED OFF THE DRYLINE EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN OK. SINCE 0100Z... TSTMS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEGINNING TO BE REPORTED. INFLOW TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN INGESTING PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NERN TX/ERN OK. 00Z OUN SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED INCREASING CINH VALUES THAT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TSTMS. ALSO...STORMS WILL BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE AXIS OF THE LLJ IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT DEVELOPS FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO SWRN KS. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT STORMS ARE FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AND IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE SEVERE THREATS TO DIMINISH. WILL MONITOR PROGRESS OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CURRENT WW. IF THEY SHOW NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING...ANOTHER SMALL WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK/NWRN TX. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 33619878 36789799 36349710 35369690 34529730 34009782 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 02:20:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 21:20:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210231.j3L2V1hO002032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210229 KSZ000-NEZ000-210330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN KS AND EXTREME SCNTRL/SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210229Z - 210330Z WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. LEFT MOVING MEMBERS OF A SCNTRL KS SUPERCELL SPLIT ARE RAPIDLY TRANSLATING NWD INTO NCNTRL KS THIS EVENING. OTHER CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM VCNTY KCNK AND KTOP. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ALONG/NORTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS NERN KS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALONG NOSE OF H85 JET. 00Z TOP SOUNDING WAS QUITE UNSTABLE AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 40209911 40409758 40259591 39079534 38809618 38829790 39259926 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 02:41:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 21:41:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210252.j3L2qCUh013659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210251 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCNTRL KS...WRN OK AND FAR NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169... VALID 210251Z - 210415Z VALID PORTIONS OF WS #169 WILL EXPIRE AT 04Z. ADDITIONAL WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM. PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD LLJ IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL NWD INTO CNTRL KS. TSTM CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVED OVER SWRN KS...WRN OK AND NWRN TX APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND AWAY FROM THE LLJ CORE. TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...PARTICULARLY FROM SWRN-SCNTRL OK/NWRN TX AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER NEAR/S OF KICT. THESE TSTM CLUSTERS ARE STILL ORGANIZED AND IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE THEY DIMINISH. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS ACROSS SCNTRL KS...CNTRL OK SWD INTO NWRN TX. OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTRL KS VCNTY A BAROCLINIC ZONE. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33480012 34610006 35589975 36409987 37130051 38020017 37979793 33439920 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 04:38:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 23:38:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210448.j3L4msZt008923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210447 COZ000-210545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170... VALID 210447Z - 210545Z VALID PORTIONS OF WS #170 CONTINUES IN EXTREME NERN CO WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL. SEVERE RISKS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WS #172 ACROSS SWRN NEB/NWRN KS BY 06Z. THUS WS #170 COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD ACROSS ERN CO WITH STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS PHILLIPS...YUMA AND SERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE WW BY 06Z. THE REMAINDER OF NERN CO IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING... LESSENING THE SEVERE RISKS. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... 39610386 40080326 40910259 40910220 39710225 39450354 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 04:41:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 23:41:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210452.j3L4qc4j010903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210450 KSZ000-210615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171... VALID 210450Z - 210615Z TSTMS HAVE FINALLY SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND NUMBER ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN KS WITHIN WS #171. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. SCNTRL KS/OK MCS/S HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH...WITH THE LLJ BEGINNING TO INCREASE NOW ACROSS ALL OF OK AND SCNTRL KS. NOSE OF THE LLJ WAS BLOWING PERPENDICULAR TO A E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS A RESULT...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE IN THE ENHANCED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. 00Z TOP SOUNDING EXHIBITED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE H85-H7 LAYER...THOUGH THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS WEAK. STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...BUT ANY SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAK KINEMATIC PROFILES. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS AND TRAIN ESEWD INTO NERN KS. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39829937 39879549 38979546 38919935 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 05:39:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 00:39:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210549.j3L5nfLx006569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210548 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CENTRAL NEB...EXTREME NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...172... VALID 210548Z - 210645Z WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY REPLACING WW 170 AND WW 172 SEVERAL STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIGNED FROM SWRN GARDEN CNTY NEB SWD THRU CHASE COUNTY TO THE YUMA COUNTY CO/CHEYENNE COUNTY KS LINE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING ENHANCING UVVS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KT EXTENDS FROM WRN OK NWD INTO SWRN NEB UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET WITH STRONG MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS RAPIDLY AND NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW IS OVER EAST CENTRAL CO WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD AS THE TROUGH MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA. ALREADY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU... 39039991 38930108 39110188 40200217 41290211 42600226 42990153 42969911 41869875 40529881 39529895 39189927 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 08:24:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 03:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210835.j3L8ZC9A017556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210834 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-211030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NEB INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173...174... VALID 210834Z - 211030Z TWO MODES OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS WRN NEB...AND LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVES NWD THRU SERN NEB. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT MERGER OF THESE TWO MODES WILL OCCUR OVER SRN CUSTER COUNTY NEB AS BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN LINCOLN COUNTY...AND LEFT MOVER HEADS INTO CUSTER COUNTY. ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN NEB IS ALONG WARM FRONT IN THE LOW LEVELS BEING PUSHED NWD/NEWD BY MID LEVEL WARMING/CAPPING INVERSION. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE AS BOWING LINE SEGMENT MERGES OVER CHERRY WITH THE WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION IT WILL TURN EWD/ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. RUC PFC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL PRESENT WITH VALUES 7.5 TO 8C/KM INDICATING THE CONTINUED HAIL THREAT. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 41739984 41879839 41729642 41259472 40379363 39669408 39659492 40099714 40029926 40150016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 16:03:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 11:03:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211613.j3LGDudk004136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211613 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211613Z - 211815Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ASCENT REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX IS TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING...PER ONGOING BAND OF GRADUALLY EXPANDING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM KEARNEY COUNTY TO CHERRY COUNTY IN NEB. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS NRN KS WILL AID NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT INTO EXTREME SERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE WEAK INHIBITION IS ALREADY NOTED BY LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA. IT APPEARS NEAR SFC BASED STORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN MOVE EWD ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT. SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED ACROSS NERN KS BY 21Z BEFORE SPREADING INTO NWRN MO. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THIS REGION FAVORING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39989827 40969809 41199636 39249457 39139627 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 17:06:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 12:06:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211716.j3LHGhGk020138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211715 MOZ000-211915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211715Z - 211915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... BUOYANCY IS INCREASING ALONG AND JUST SW OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NEAR STL...NWWD ACROSS CNTRL MO TO NORTH OF MCI. SBCAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A GRADUAL THICKENING OF CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WIND SHIFT. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS NOT THAT STRONG...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF IT CAN DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39479304 38489032 37569087 38669351 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 18:04:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 13:04:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211814.j3LIErxC029704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211813 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SRN AL AND ERN MS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 211813Z - 212015Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING/INCREASING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN AL...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO ERN MS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO FEATURE WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND/OR MCV MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND SWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN AL. AMBIENT/DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE -- OWING TO AMPLE INSOLATION AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SFC TEMPS. IN SPITE OF THE INSTABILITY...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD. ALTHOUGH EPISODIC PULSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LIMITED ORGANIZATION/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... 33508562 32168487 31568543 31538709 31618949 33378945 33848852 33808629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 18:13:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 13:13:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211823.j3LINtRY004205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211823 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...NWRN AR...NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211823Z - 211930Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL MO...NWRN AR...NERN OK... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWERS-ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SWRN MO/NWRN AR. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT VEERING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ON 18Z SGF SOUNDING DOES SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO ADDRESS THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 35719490 38599449 38399224 36229236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 18:37:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 13:37:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211847.j3LIlD0r021174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211846 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV AND CNTRL/SRN VA INTO NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211846Z - 212045Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WV AND CNTRL/SRN VA INTO NRN NC. WW NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. STORM CLUSTER ONGOING ACROSS ERN KY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE ACROSS NRN KY. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EWD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SRN WV INTO CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING VA...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OWING TO PLENTIFUL INSOLATION. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH REMAINING. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...REGION DOES REMAIN SOUTH OF RELATIVELY STRONGER BELT OF MID LEVEL FLOW /REF LWX 88D VAD AND REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/...AS 20-25 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 37717741 37037690 36207747 35968008 35938099 36618246 37638255 38328209 37937794 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 18:39:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 13:39:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211849.j3LInoQP022861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211849 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211848 KSZ000-NEZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 175... VALID 211848Z - 212015Z ...MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS... A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN NEB...INTO PORTIONS OF NERN KS. LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT WRN PORTIONS OF WW AND WILL SOON AID MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN KS...NE OF MHK...WHILE INTENSIFYING RADAR ECHOES ARE NOTED INTO SCNTRL NEB...AS FAR SOUTH AS THAYER COUNTY. WITH TIME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE ENHANCING THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39239683 40569803 41989986 42259908 39509523 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 19:56:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 14:56:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212006.j3LK6S3v013763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212005 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 175...177... VALID 212005Z - 212130Z ...TORNADO WATCH 175 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED EARLY TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NERN KS/NWRN MO... BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY...AND EQUALLY IMPORTANT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IS OCCURRING ACROSS NERN KS INTO NWRN MO ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS WELL DEFINED AND CURRENTLY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD INTO THIS REGION AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS INTO THE MO VALLEY. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS INCREASING SHEAR VENTS MATURING UPDRAFTS. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REPLACED EARLY. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 38099537 39419638 41609788 41469618 38939272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 20:19:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 15:19:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212029.j3LKTMQY029144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212028 ILZ000-MOZ000-212200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176...177... VALID 212028Z - 212200Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT TOWARD THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA... WELL DEFINED MVC FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS SERN IA...WITH A TRAILING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NRN PORTIONS OF WW176. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS ELEVATED AND WELL NORTH OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHICH APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE INDEED FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER COOPER COUNTY MO AND WILL SOON SPREAD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW176. WITH TIME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38369269 39999223 40149092 39239086 38048945 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 20:55:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 15:55:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212105.j3LL5Q4a020917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212104 TXZ000-OKZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212104Z - 212300Z ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/CNTRL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS...A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CU FIELD INVOF DRYLINE...FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER AROUND CLAY/MONTAGUE COUNTIES...SWD TO JUST WEST OF MINERAL WELLS...ACROSS I-20 EAST OF ABILENE INTO CALLAHAN COUNTY AND SWD TO SAN ANGELO. IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN CU FIELD...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CINH CONTINUES TO ERODE...WITH 100 MB MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE INVOF I-20 EAST OF ABILENE...WHERE WEAKEST CINH EXISTS WITH SUFFICIENT MASS CONVERGENCE...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BOTH NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL...WITH 25-30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. RELATIVELY LONGER SUSTAINED SUPERCELL MODE MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN TX WHERE RELATIVELY BETTER SHEAR EXISTS PER 18Z DFW RAOB. LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD. GIVEN NON-DESCRIPT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSELY TIED TO DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL TX. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 33919803 33889735 33169663 32329676 31629794 30699973 31270085 32889853 33669808 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 21:41:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 16:41:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212151.j3LLpvYJ018826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212151 MOZ000-KSZ000-212245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KS AND EXTREME NWRN MO INCLUDING AREAS BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND ST. JOSEPH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178... VALID 212151Z - 212245Z A POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELL WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS ATCHISON COUNTY KS AND INTO AREAS BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND ST. JOSEPH MO THROUGH 00Z. SRN SUPERCELL WITHIN AN ARC OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WAS MOVING ACROSS ATCHISON COUNTY KS AT 2145Z...HAVING MADE A DEVIANT RIGHT TURN SINCE 21Z. NEARBY LTH PROFILER SHOWED AROUND 142 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH FOR THIS SUPERCELLS MOTION. GIVEN THAT THE WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NRN SUBURBS OF KANSAS CITY ESEWD INTO CNTRL MO...THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE INGESTING PARCELS IN A RESERVOIR OF ENHANCED HELICITY. LCLS ARE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT WITH EXPANDING ANVILS DOWNSTREAM... BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL AND THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS SUCH...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INCREASING IN AREAS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND KANSAS CITY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SWRN BUCHANAN COUNTY MO WITHIN THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE SUPERCELL. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... 39689560 39809492 39669417 39349410 39129437 39279538 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:04:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:04:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212214.j3LMEqS7000779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212214 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212214Z - 220015Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN AR...A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATURE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTS CU FIELD MAY BE CHANGING CHARACTER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER PAST HALF HOUR. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 18Z OUN RAOB MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT ERK OK CONDITIONS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH REMAINS...WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE HWY 75/INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE CORRIDOR FROM BVO TO TUL TO MLC. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /HASKELL PROFILER/ SUGGESTS SUPERCELL MODE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY HAZARDS LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH WIND THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING THROUGH THE EVENING FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR. SWLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW/WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR SUGGESTS TORNADO THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 35189692 36209651 36919597 36729457 36439359 35229301 34249288 33939428 34009577 34139747 35039695 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:12:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:12:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212223.j3LMN2Js005675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212222 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...EXTREME NERN AR...FAR S IL...WRN KY AND NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212222Z - 212315Z A WW WBIS SHORTLY AS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS SERN MO/NCNTRL AR WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING VCNTY WARM FRONT/OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED NW-SE ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN KY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAK SIDE...LESS THAN 25 KTS...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. MOREOVER...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20F MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. AS SUCH...A WW WBIS SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37599110 37758887 37798787 37208780 36128902 36078956 35989073 35979159 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:13:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:13:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212223.j3LMNZIc006239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212214 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212214Z - 220015Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN AR...A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATURE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTS CU FIELD MAY BE CHANGING CHARACTER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER PAST HALF HOUR. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 18Z OUN RAOB MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT ERK OK CONDITIONS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH REMAINS...WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE HWY 75/INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE CORRIDOR FROM BVO TO TUL TO MLC. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /HASKELL PROFILER/ SUGGESTS SUPERCELL MODE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY HAZARDS LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH WIND THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING THROUGH THE EVENING FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR. SWLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW/WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR SUGGESTS TORNADO THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 35189692 36209651 36919597 36729457 36439359 35229301 34249288 33939428 34009577 34139747 35039695  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:19:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:19:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212229.j3LMTl7K009228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212222 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...EXTREME NERN AR...FAR S IL...WRN KY AND NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212222Z - 212315Z A WW WBIS SHORTLY AS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS SERN MO/NCNTRL AR WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING VCNTY WARM FRONT/OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED NW-SE ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN KY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAK SIDE...LESS THAN 25 KTS...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. MOREOVER...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20F MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. AS SUCH...A WW WBIS SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37599110 37758887 37798787 37208780 36128902 36078956 35989073 35979159  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:43:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:43:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212253.j3LMrNsr022706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212252 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...EXTREME SWRN IA...NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 176...178... VALID 212252Z - 212345Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH 176 EXPIRES AT 00Z AND TORNADO WATCH 178 EXPIRES AT 04Z. CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE SEVERE THREATS WILL NECESSITATE A REORGANIZATION OF WATCHES BY 00Z. STRONGEST TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KANSAS CITY AREA EWD ACROSS NRN MO TO NEAR KSTL AND WCNTRL IL. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA. TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION OF ENHANCED SRH. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS WCNTRL-NCNTRL MO WHERE THE NRN EDGE OF HOTTEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXISTS. BUT...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT FARTHER EAST. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR MORE MCS/S SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED LATER THIS EVENING AND TRACK ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND INTO THE LOWER OH/MID-MS VLY. WHEN CELLS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT THAN TORNADOES...ALONG WITH RISKS OF HAIL. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38188955 38089123 38669338 38349458 39419597 41179688 41369550 40459447 39789271 39469075 39028965 38478944 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 23:42:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 18:42:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212352.j3LNqKin019452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212351 MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-220115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...EXTREME SWRN IA...NERN KS AND NWRN/WCNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178... VALID 212351Z - 220115Z SUPERCELL THAT TRACKED ACROSS FAR NRN SUBURBS OF KANSAS CITY EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS IT MOVES THROUGH RAY COUNTY MO. OTHER STORMS HAVE FORMED DOWNSTREAM VCNTY THE WARM FRONT TO NEAR KCOU...SO THE SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS RAIN-COOLED INFLOW FARTHER EAST. TSTMS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM OLATHE SWD IN WT 178 ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE MO BORDER. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW WEDGE OF AIR THAT HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED BY OUTFLOWS. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A TORNADO THREAT AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY...BUT MORE LIKELY DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THREATS. ELSEWHERE...DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS ADVECTING ENEWD INTO THE MO RVR VLY FROM NERN KS INTO SERN NEB...WITH A FEW TSTMS INITIATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS...AFTER INITIATION...APPEAR TO MOVE NEWD ATOP COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SWRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39059589 40259628 41369683 41379525 40629499 40139415 38749329 38389311 38309535 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 00:38:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 19:38:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220049.j3M0n8O9012876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220047 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181... VALID 220047Z - 220215Z SGF 00Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL MO REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EARLIER TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE-WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION CONTINUE ALONG THE MO/KS LINE...WITH A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER CRAWFORD COUNTY KS. RUC FORECASTS THE SWLY LLJ TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL MO. GIVEN INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO EXPAND EWD THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WIND/HAIL WILL REMAIN THREATS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...TSA...ICT... 36339564 37419484 37959467 38159286 38159147 36689146 36589353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 00:50:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 19:50:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220100.j3M10Uc9017860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220059 TXZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... VALID 220059Z - 220230Z WW 179 CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL/NORTH TX. TSTMS REMAIN PERIODICALLY SEVERE ALONG A NEAR ABILENE-SAN ANGELO AXIS INVOF DRYLINE /IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT OVERTAKING NORTH TX/. CONTINUAL THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACROSS CNTRL TX...GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND A GRADUAL SEWD PROPAGATION OFF THE DRYLINE...AMIDST WEAK SELY INFLOW AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS SEEN IN 00Z DRT RAOB. FURTHER NORTH...TSTMS CURRENTLY WANING INVOF MINERAL WELLS. THIS IS LIKELY ARTIFACT OF CINH/850 WARM LAYER SEEN IN 00Z DFW RAOB..SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TX MAY BE DOUBTFUL. ..GUYER.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30420137 31070114 33329828 33529684 32509743 31439866 30639939 30210050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 00:54:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 19:54:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220104.j3M14dkR019344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220103 ILZ000-MOZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL MO AND SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183... VALID 220103Z - 220230Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A FRONT FROM SRN IL WWD TO NEAR FARMINGTON THEN NWWD TO NEAR SEDALIA. A DEVELOPING COLD POOL WAS GAINING STRENGTH OVER WCNTRL MO EAST OF KANSAS CITY. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WS 183. NORTH/EAST OF THE FRONT... TSTMS HAVE MAINLY BEEN PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE SITUATION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE DEVELOPING COLD POOL HAS AIDED IN TSTMS BECOMING MORE LINEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR A BOW ECHO MAY BE EVOLVING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL MO. NRN PART OF THIS BAND OF TSTMS MAY CLIP THE WRN SIDES OF WS 183 BETWEEN 02-04Z. THUS...WIND DAMAGE MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38499211 39189286 39589289 39649082 39259032 39168932 38638872 38058812 37888939 38039133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 01:09:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 20:09:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220119.j3M1JrFC025763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220119 ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...FAR W KY...EXTREME NWRN TN...EXTREME NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180... VALID 220119Z - 220245Z THOUGH TSTMS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THUS FAR THIS EVENING... THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 03Z...THUS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE WS 180. BLOOMFIELD PROFILER DEPICTS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS. COMPENSATING FOR THE WEAK SHEAR...STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS...THOUGH UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NWD INTO SRN IL WWD TO FARMINGTON MO THEN NWWD TO SEDALIA. WARM SECTOR WAS CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND SEEMS PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP. UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BOW ECHO MAY BE EVOLVING EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY TRACK/DEVELOP ESEWD INTO CNTRL MO AND THEN EVENTUALLY SERN MO LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE SWLY LLJ BEGINS TO ACCELERATE. GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPSTREAM LINEAR BAND OF STORMS BEGINS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE TOWARD THE REGION. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX... 36009121 37599085 37618940 37848821 36668869 35958927 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 02:14:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 21:14:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220224.j3M2OqQC021973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220223 ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-220400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NWRN/CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220223Z - 220400Z BROAD WSWLY H85-H7 FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED UNSTABLE PARCELS EWD TO OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED N-S ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF AL. AS A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED. THOUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK...PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS MIDDLE TN...ESPECIALLY AS THE N-S ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS LOCATED ALONG THE MS RVR MOVES EWD. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD WIND DAMAGE. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM...UNLESS AN UPSWING IN TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER OCCURS. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 32418785 35368817 36528852 36528682 36258608 34758617 32828661 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 02:41:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 21:41:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220251.j3M2pbEK001340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220250 MOZ000-IAZ000-220345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0950 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/WCNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178... VALID 220250Z - 220345Z VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 178 ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NWRN MO IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 04Z AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. PRIMARY LINEAR BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FROM NCNTRL TO SWRN MO LATE THIS EVENING...OR JUST EAST OF THE VALID PORTIONS OF WT 178. OTHER TSTMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN MO...BUT EARLIER TSTMS HAVE PROBABLY EXHAUSTED SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. MOREOVER...THE LLJ IS AIMED MORE INTO THE TSTMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... 38409439 41219474 38869301 38399370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 03:06:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 22:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220316.j3M3GoJs013078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220316 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182... VALID 220316Z - 220515Z ...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO NRN/CNTRL AR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE FROM NOWATA/HASKELL/ADA WITH A BROKEN LINE OF CELLULAR STORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS LINE. STORM NOW ENTERING ADAIR COUNTY REMAINS DANGEROUS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS AND ANOTHER CELL NOW OVER HUGHES COUNTY IS ALSO RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. VAD WIND DATA FROM FORT SMITH AR SUGGESTS A FAVORABLY VEERING PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVEN TORNADOES WITH NEARLY 30 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR. WIND FIELDS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN MO ARE EVEN STRONGER. ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS MO OVERNIGHT...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ERN OK/OZARKS. ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS EXCEPT THE OPERATIONAL ETA /NAM/ FORECAST A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SE OK/AR TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ARE MAINLY NW/SE...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT STORMS NOW OVER SW MO MAY TURN MORE SE WITH TIME AFFECTING NRN AND CNTRL SECTIONS OF AR. ..TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 34669226 34719648 36509569 36509125 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 03:16:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 22:16:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220326.j3M3QPmi016725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220325 MOZ000-ILZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220325Z - 220430Z THIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION CONCERNS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 180...TORNADO WATCH 181 AND SEVERE TSTM WATCH 183. TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A LINE FROM NERN MO TO THE OZARKS LATE THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE IS A NARROW WEDGE OF TRUE WARM SECTOR OVER SCNTRL MO FROM THE KUNO AREA NWD TO KVIH. EAST OF THIS LINE...ANOTHER COOL SURGE HAS MOVED WWD INTO SERN MO OWING TO TSTMS MOVING EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. BUT...EVEN THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. WATCHES 180...181 AND 183 ALL EXPIRE AT 0600Z. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...ANOTHER WW WILL BE POSSIBLE...LIKELY SEVERE TSTM...OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. PRIND THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS FOR WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN MO SWWD INTO AR. EWD EXTENT IS IN QUESTION...BUT PERHAPS AS FAR AS SRN IL...FAR WRN KY AND WRN TN. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 36729358 39729180 39098974 37308980 36619051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 03:27:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 22:27:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220337.j3M3bOZH021194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220336 TXZ000-220500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... VALID 220336Z - 220500Z ...WW 179 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED RAPIDLY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING. EVEN STORMS OVER SUTTON COUNTY HAVE BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT...AND WITH NO ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR STORMS...THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31099937 30280062 30400182 31410070 31409887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 08:00:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 03:00:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220810.j3M8AgP8031459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220809 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...SE MO...SRN IL...FAR WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184... VALID 220809Z - 220915Z A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO THE FAR ERN PART OF WW 184. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 184 MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CNTRL MO...SRN MO AND CNTRL AR WITH STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F ARE PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES STILL ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR COULD KEEP CONVECTION ACROSS AR NEAR SEVERE LIMITS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS ECNTRL AND SOUTHEAST AR WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION. ..BROYLES.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV... 33869352 34079400 34659369 35889201 37718972 38628894 38638798 38258740 37258800 36158924 34039217 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 10:27:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 05:27:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221037.j3MAbgGE001672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221036 TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN KY...MIDDLE TN...NE MS...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221036Z - 221200Z SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL ACROSS WRN KY...WRN TN AND NRN MS. AS THE LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. NO WW IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. TWO LINE SEGMENTS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING ALONG THE NRN END OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NEWD FROM NRN MS INTO WRN TN. THE INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TAKING PLACE DUE TO THE EXPANDING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN AR AND WRN TN. ALTHOUGH THE LINES ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR SRN KY...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL AND NE MS. A FORWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 35 KT COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE AND WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 33908827 34408913 35068923 36148847 37058706 36758591 35918527 34808586 33878719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 14:06:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 09:06:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221416.j3MEGAIE006379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221415 ALZ000-MSZ000-221545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221415Z - 221545Z ...WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROGRESSED STEADILY SEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF AL/MS...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SPEED MAX. DEEP WLY COMPONENT OBSERVED AT JAN AND BMX SUGGEST TRUE WARM SECTOR AND BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WILL OCCUR INITIALLY INTO THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AS IT SAGS SWD ACROSS WRN MS. ALTHOUGH INITIAL STORM MODE SUGGESTS MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...IT APPEARS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STRUCTURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... 32969086 33778868 33758647 32868657 32119030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 15:47:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 10:47:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221557.j3MFvTgI016873@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221556 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-221730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221556Z - 221730Z ...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IL INTO WRN IND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WW IS ANTICIPATED SHORTLY... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL...INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY. PARTIAL CLEARING IS NOW OBSERVED INTO SWRN IND WHERE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE SHORTLY. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF KY. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION IS THE STRONG EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WW WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THIS REGION AS SCENARIO UNFOLDS. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37368815 38788881 39878953 40168780 39008637 37348681 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 15:57:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 10:57:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221607.j3MG7H5b024056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221606 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...WRN/CENTRAL LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221606Z - 221800Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX...WRN/CENTRAL LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. AT 1550Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT RED RIVER PARISH LA WSWWD TO ANDERSON COUNTY TX. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2500 J/KG. AXIS OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS CIN CONTINUES TO DECREASE. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS PRIMARILY PARALLEL TO FRONT...SUGGESTING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE/LONG-LIVED CORES CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO BE AIDED BY STRONG 500-300MB DIVERGENCE BETWEEN SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS MO. AS COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 17Z. ..BANACOS.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 32069433 32259340 32349187 32649008 31278973 30929193 30839302 30459408 30099539 30069634 30349690 30799700 31229685 31529620 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 16:09:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 11:09:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221619.j3MGJfdo000958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221618 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-221815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN GA...ERN TN...WRN NC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 221618Z - 221815Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO WRN NC... LEADING EDGE OF OVERNIGHT MCS APPEARS TO BE REGENERATING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN GA INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS YET TO OVERSPREAD THIS ACTIVITY AND FORWARD PROPAGATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAST AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EMBEDDED ALONG THIS LEADING EDGE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC... 33918531 34958429 35998379 35818307 34408330 32848501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 17:32:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 12:32:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221742.j3MHgPid031407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221741 ALZ000-MSZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MS AND CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 185... VALID 221741Z - 221845Z A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING SEWD AT 25 MPH THROUGH ERN AL FROM NW OF LGC TO SW OF ANB. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE SEWD. OTHER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BHM TO NORTHEAST OF MEI. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN MOIST AXIS. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THESE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE AND DEVELOP SEWD. ..IMY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... 32388936 33028787 33708708 33738646 33418623 33488537 32828519 31898905 32218942 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 19:16:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 14:16:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221926.j3MJQ7x6008193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221925 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...CENTRAL LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... VALID 221925Z - 222100Z WW 186 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AIR MASS HAS REMAINED WEAKLY CAPPED THROUGH 19Z ACROSS THE WW AREA...WITH INITIAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL LA DISSIPATING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDING ENE-WSW THROUGH THE WATCH AREA...WITH A MORE ROBUST WIND SHIFT JUST SOUTH OF SHV AND GGG APPROACHING THE WATCH REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. SFC-6KM SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 40KT WHICH SUPPORTS THE PROSPECT OF LONG-LIVED STORMS. COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL CONTINUES PENDING INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. ..BANACOS.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29969450 31499498 33088974 31558921 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 19:18:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 14:18:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221928.j3MJSEKY009919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221927 SCZ000-GAZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GA TO NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187...189... VALID 221927Z - 222100Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW187 AND MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL SC... WELL ORGANIZED MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER NRN GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT...INTO A REGION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 9 C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THIS APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL DESPITE THE MODERATE FORWARD SPEED TO OVERALL COMPLEX. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 32628500 32968350 34618230 34138151 32538197 32058404 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 19:40:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 14:40:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221950.j3MJoPi3025903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221949 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221949 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-222115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NERN MS...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221949Z - 222115Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL/MS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS REFLECTED NICELY IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY IN THE FORM OF AN ARCED BAND OF THICKENING CU ACROSS WRN TN INTO NERN AR ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FORCING OVERSPREADS HIGHER MOISTURE FIELD IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...DESPITE THE STRONGLY VEERED AND SOMEWHAT WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED MORE DISCRETE STORMS COULD EMERGE AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT BUT MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AS IT SURGES SEWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST STORMS. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 33918928 35028849 36098857 36548743 36368564 34658594 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 20:09:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 15:09:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222019.j3MKJIBo014074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222017 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IN / SWRN OH / ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222017Z - 222145Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING E OF WW 188 / ACROSS PARTS OF SERN IN / SWRN OH / ERN KY. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 188 / ACROSS SRN IN...AND DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS SWRN OH / ERN KY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE BENEATH THIN MIDDLE / HIGH OVERCAST. LATEST ILN /WILMINGTON OH/ AND JKL /JACKSON KY/ VWPS SUPPORT MODEL PFC FORECASTS OF MODERATE SWLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS. THUS...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 40648530 40708408 40438339 39688282 37828278 36628381 36648475 38558514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:01:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:01:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222211.j3MMBn0H019456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222211 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IL...CNTRL/ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN IND...SWRN/SCNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...192... VALID 222211Z - 222345Z 21Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998MB MESOLOW VCNTY KIND WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE KDAY AREA THEN SEWD TO THE MID-OH VLY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE LAND-BETWEEN- THE-LAKES. THE MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KCAK TO NEAR KIND THEN WWD INTO CNTRL IL. A LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE N-S COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO SCNTRL IND AND NWRN KY. THE LINE CONSISTS OF A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. VWP FROM KEVV CLEARLY SHOWED A REAR INFLOW JET WITH AN...OTHERWISE...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN. THUS...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LINES MOVE EWD THROUGH SRN IND AND INTO CNTRL KY. MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLD SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS CNTRL/SERN IND AND CNTRL KY. THESE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NOSE OF A THETA-E RIDGE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GROW AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD SWRN/WCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY. FLOW PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT APPROACH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL IND INTO WCNTRL/SWRN OH MAY TEND TO EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 36878730 38258676 40098790 39968273 38398343 37668273 37098286 36668431 36728599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:08:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:08:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222219.j3MMJ10B022646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222217 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...EXTREME WRN NC AND NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222217Z - 222315Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 191. TSTMS CONTINUE TO GROW OUT OF THE CU FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA AND THERE IS NO REASON THAT STORMS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO MATURE. GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP INTO A LINE WITHIN THE UNDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX... 35118559 35908543 36498433 36558237 35828262 34708404 34458429 34298531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:13:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:13:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222223.j3MMNfqw025052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222222 TXZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222222Z - 230015Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SWD BETWEEN AUS AND SAT WITH CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WEAK CELLS EXIST PRESENTLY ACROSS ERN CALDWELL AND SRN BASTROP COUNTY AT 2210Z. LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS IS LACK OF DEEP-LAYER/LARGE SCALE ASCENT. UPSTREAM 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-7C/KM ARE ALSO MARGINAL. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 90F AND CIN VALUES BASED ON RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ARE NEAR 0. IT APPEARS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED. NWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29790117 30089897 30549565 30419469 29489460 28959555 28519721 28429830 28469948 28570032 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:18:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:18:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222228.j3MMSQrR027216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222211 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IL...CNTRL/ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN IND...SWRN/SCNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...192... VALID 222211Z - 222345Z 21Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998MB MESOLOW VCNTY KIND WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE KDAY AREA THEN SEWD TO THE MID-OH VLY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE LAND-BETWEEN- THE-LAKES. THE MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KCAK TO NEAR KIND THEN WWD INTO CNTRL IL. A LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE N-S COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO SCNTRL IND AND NWRN KY. THE LINE CONSISTS OF A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. VWP FROM KEVV CLEARLY SHOWED A REAR INFLOW JET WITH AN...OTHERWISE...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN. THUS...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LINES MOVE EWD THROUGH SRN IND AND INTO CNTRL KY. MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLD SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS CNTRL/SERN IND AND CNTRL KY. THESE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NOSE OF A THETA-E RIDGE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GROW AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD SWRN/WCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY. FLOW PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT APPROACH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL IND INTO WCNTRL/SWRN OH MAY TEND TO EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 36878730 38258676 40098790 39968273 38398343 37668273 37098286 36668431 36728599  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:22:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222232.j3MMWcR2029330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222217 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...EXTREME WRN NC AND NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222217Z - 222315Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 191. TSTMS CONTINUE TO GROW OUT OF THE CU FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA AND THERE IS NO REASON THAT STORMS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO MATURE. GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP INTO A LINE WITHIN THE UNDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX... 35118559 35908543 36498433 36558237 35828262 34708404 34458429 34298531  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:52:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:52:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222302.j3MN28eB009674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222301 ORZ000-WAZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NWRN ORE AND SWRN WA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 222301Z - 230030Z A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS NCNTRL/NWRN ORE AND SWRN WA THROUGH EVENING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE ORE/WA PACIFIC COAST. SUB MINUS 20C H5 TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND GIVEN HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AIR MASS HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...BAND OF 25-30 KT MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM HAS BOOSTED 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES INTO THE 40-45 KT RANGE. MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT COMPARATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL LIFE CYCLES OF THE UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS...THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY AUGMENT THE PRODUCTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD NWWD TOWARD SWRN WA THIS EVENING...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PDT...PQR... 43832296 45962279 46292124 45442028 44132138 43632247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 23:31:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 18:31:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222341.j3MNfO2o026636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222340 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL AND NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 191...194... VALID 222340Z - 230115Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ADVECTING EWD QUICKLY THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL. TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MIX OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. NASHVILLE VWP SHOWS A WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE AND THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY 90 DEGREES TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...THUS THE TENDENCY FOR CELLS TO REMAIN DISCRETE. CELL SPLITS AND MERGERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RISK FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...THEN BECOME N-S LINE SEGMENTS. THESE LINE SEGMENTS MAY BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN GA AND ERN TN. AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE MORE STABLE FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE HIGHEST SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THUS...STORMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE NC BORDER BY 03Z. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 191 ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS EWD THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN... 34688693 36418650 36508395 34638439 34598677 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 23:55:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 18:55:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230005.j3N05rps003479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230005 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...SWRN/SCNTRL OH AND CNTRL/ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...192... VALID 230005Z - 230130Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO SWRN OH AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SEWD INTO SRN IND. DRYLINE WAS ARCING FROM THE CVG VCNTY SWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND A WARM FRONT BOWING NEWD THROUGH THE MID-OH VLY BEFORE CURVING SWD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. TSTMS THAT EVOLVED OVER CNTRL/SRN IND HAVE MAINTAINED A BLEND OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. SMALLER CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SWRN/SCNTRL OH...ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF THE THETA-E AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH AS STORM NUMBER INCREASES...EVOLUTION INTO MORE LINEAR MODES MAY OCCUR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. BUT...ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OH RVR VLY INTO SCNTRL OH WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED...ALBEIT WEAK. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY 02-03Z AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SCIOTO RVR VLY AND INTO THE KY COALFIELDS WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 36888553 38368502 40058603 39958276 38878296 38288347 37688280 36988327 36898421 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 00:49:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 19:49:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230100.j3N104oY024829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230059 VAZ000-TNZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN AND SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230059Z - 230130Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR NERN TN AND SWRN VA. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD/DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD THE BRISTOL AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX... 35988315 36708304 36958262 36838197 36278205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 01:19:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 20:19:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230129.j3N1TCmf004197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230128 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-230330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0828 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN MS...CENTRAL/SRN AL...WRN FLA PANHANDLE AND WCENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190... VALID 230128Z - 230330Z THE THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEYOND WW 190 EXPIRATION TIME /02Z/ ACROSS MUCH OF SERN MS...CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO WCENTRAL GA AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THUS A REPLACEMENT WW WBIS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW 190 AND INCLUDING AREAS OUTSIDE OF WW 190 /WCENTRAL GA...FAR SRN MS...AND THE FAR WRN FLA PANHANDLE/. ..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32958775 32478912 31568952 30698894 30258819 30348700 31078619 31888611 31988498 32878524 33848553 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 02:06:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 21:06:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230216.j3N2Gedl022038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230215 GAZ000-FLZ000-230315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN GA...FAR NRN FLA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193... VALID 230215Z - 230315Z THREAT FOR SVR THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 193 VALID TIME /03Z/ WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF FAR SERN GA. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF NERN FLA BEYOND 03Z. HOWEVER...THIS AREA SOUTH OF WW/S 193 AND 195 MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A NEW WATCH BY 03Z IF CONVECTION REORGANIZES OR SHOWS A STRENGTHENING TREND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM JAX SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS OUTRUN MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 195/FAR SRN PORTIONS OF WW 193. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR THROUGH 03Z SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CAMDEN COUNTY GA WHERE A STRONG STORMS REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR THE GUST FRONT. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE CONVECTIVE LINES REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PER THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ON WSWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW PER RECENT RISES IN DEWPTS OVER NCENTRAL FLA/SCENTRAL GA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/SFC TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN FL MAY BE NEEDED BY 03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... 31738082 31478223 30618216 30598306 30218345 29778293 29658156 29908135 30718151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 02:15:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 21:15:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230225.j3N2PoJj025355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230225 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-230400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SCNTRL OH EWD TO THE MID-OH VLY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... VALID 230225Z - 230400Z N-S ORIENTED LINE OF TSTMS IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE SCIOTO VLY OF SCNTRL OH AND THE COALFIELDS OF KY AT MID-EVENING. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KY PORTION OF THE LINE. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS WV IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER SERN OH...VCNTY ATHENS/WELLSTON/ GALLIPOLIS/POMEROY MAY BE SIGNS OF THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION REGIME. PRIND THAT THE SRN LINE OF TSTMS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MID-OH VLY...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/WRN LOWLANDS OF WV OVERNIGHT. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BUT IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS ARE GENERALLY DECREASING GIVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY. ATTM...ANY ADDITIONAL WW ARE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE OH VLY REGION. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN... 36838389 39508342 39688269 39978087 39418051 38188125 37508212 36888353 36758409 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 02:34:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 21:34:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230244.j3N2iWGZ032516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230243 GAZ000-230345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194... VALID 230243Z - 230345Z THIS DISCUSSION CONCERNS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 194. THE MAJORITY OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 194 HAS BEEN CLEARED WITH SPC WWAS. ONLY A FEW COUNTIES REMAIN IN NWRN GA. TSTM LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS NWRN GA TOWARD THE KATL METRO AREA AND INTO WS 198. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS HAIL. AS SOON AS THESE STORMS CLEAR THE REMAINING COUNTIES...THIS WW WILL BE CANCELLED OR LET GO UNTIL 04Z EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC... 34098521 34258402 34048410 33848466 33718516 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 02:52:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 21:52:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230302.j3N32NiU007005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230301 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195... VALID 230301Z - 230430Z CLUSTER OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR SERN AL...INTO SWRN/SCENTRAL GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EWD INTO SCENTRAL GA NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOWS CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LEWP OVER FAR SERN AL. GREATEST SVR THREAT SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO FAR SWRN/SCENTRAL GA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW-ESE FROM 30 W ABY TO MGR AS 40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THIS BOUNDARY. AREAS OVER FAR SERN GA...WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND DEEP INTO THE STRATIFORM PRECIP REGION BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINES WEAKENING OVER THE SERN CORNER OF WW 195 SHOULD SEE LITTLE SVR THREAT THROUGH 05Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31948468 31608560 31238621 30838521 30678350 30568215 30958204 31258279 31788330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 03:09:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 22:09:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230319.j3N3JKcb013469@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230318 VAZ000-TNZ000-230415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN AND EXTREME SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197... VALID 230318Z - 230415Z LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING LINE OF TSTMS HAS JUST PASSED THE TRI-CITIES REGION OF NERN TN AND ADJACENT SWRN VA WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED FROM THE KTYS VCNTY SWD TOWARD KCHA...APPARENTLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF WS 197 THROUGH THE EVENING. IF TSTM TRENDS REMAIN DOWN ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF WS 197...IT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN THE 05Z EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX... 36148287 36208302 36688307 36878243 36898203 36508211 36368201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 03:19:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 22:19:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230329.j3N3TwQu017441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230329 MSZ000-LAZ000-230500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...ERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196... VALID 230329Z - 230500Z ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 N OF LFT TO 30 S OF LUL. NORTH OF THIS LINE...LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT FOR ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF WW 196 THROUGH ITS VALID TIME /07Z/. 03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN PARTS OF WW 193. RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN LA AND FAR SRN MS. DESPITE MODEST NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INCREASING SBCINH COMBINED AND DEEP CONVERGENCE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL SVR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 196 VALID TIME. THIS AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT WW STATUS MESSAGE AT 0330Z. FURTHER SOUTH...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW OVER FAR SERN LA SOUTH OF WW 196 APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC STREAMLINE/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 32298967 31359194 30599189 29779146 30868896 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 03:49:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 22:49:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230359.j3N3xBv8028440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230358 FLZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230358Z - 230430Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF NRN FL. A COUPLE OF LEWPS/BOWS WILL BE MOVING SEWD INTO NRN FL AT 45 KTS. REAR INFLOW JET OBSERVED ON AREA VWPS SUGGEST THAT THESE FEATURES MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS. AS A RESULT...A WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY FOR NRN FL. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 30458592 30718532 30608304 30348227 29638256 29668487 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 04:04:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 23:04:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230414.j3N4Enra001266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230414 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-230545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL...EXTREME WRN FL PNHDL...WCNTRL GA AND EXTREME SERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198... VALID 230414Z - 230545Z SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO CNTRL AL/MS WITH DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINING UNSTABLE. PRIMARY LINE OF STRONG- SEVERE TSTMS HAS MOVED INTO SWRN GA AND CNTRL FL PNHDL LATE THIS EVENING. BUT...GIVEN APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...WAKE DEPRESSION CONVERGENCE AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE MAIN PART OF WS 198. PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN MOST OF THE WW. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY FARTHER SE...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31548908 34058426 32828431 30508825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 04:11:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 23:11:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230421.j3N4LBpY003232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230420 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230420 MSZ000-LAZ000-230515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196... VALID 230420Z - 230515Z ISOLD TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN LA LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE MS RVR AND H5 WARMING WAS BEGINNING ACROSS WRN LA. THIS HAS PROBABLY AIDED IN SUPPRESSING ANY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAILSTONE WITH THE REMAINING STORMS...BUT IF A CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER CONTINUES... WS 196 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 30329167 30838941 30469000 29769150 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 07:19:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 02:19:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230729.j3N7TH0b003033@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230728 FLZ000-230900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230728Z - 230900Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND ONTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LINE SHOULD HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. AS A RESULT...WW 199 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH NO ADDITIONAL WW EXPECTED. A BOWED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS AND A FORWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 35 KT WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ONTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE LINE NEAR A COLD FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AREAS FARTHER EAST. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE A HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29598388 29888569 30048627 30728606 30598431 30198265 29708158 29408118 28918108 28518183 29198303 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 16:26:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 11:26:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504231636.j3NGahoW032285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231636 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231635 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...SRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231635Z - 231830Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH HAS AIDED DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM NRN NC INTO EXTREME SRN PA. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOW RELATIVELY STEEP WITH 7.5-8C/KM VALUES OBSERVED. THIS SUPPORTS THE RECENT BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DEEPENING. WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE...POSSIBLY BECOMING ORGANIZED IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST FORCING. WW WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR THIS AREA BY 17-18Z. ..DARROW.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37257908 38937840 40067871 39657685 37207696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 18:44:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 13:44:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504231854.j3NIsAGn006965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231853 IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...SERN WA...AND WRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231853Z - 232030Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN ORE...WRN ID...AND SERN WA. THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS SHORT-LIVED...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID-UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NNEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION HAS BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH REGION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS NERN ORE/WRN ID. LARGE-SCALE UVV SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO SERN WA. DESPITE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-22C AT 500MB/ WILL YIELD MAX MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM. A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR LARGE HAIL...ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY... INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNDRAFTS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MARGINAL CAPE AND RESULTING ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW. ..BANACOS.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 46481711 45881637 45071577 44531562 43701571 43481658 43511774 43801884 44461942 45251969 46301911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 19:07:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 14:07:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504231917.j3NJHu93019250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231917 NCZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200... VALID 231917Z - 232045Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES... WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO AID TSTM ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT APPEARS AN ELONGATED N-S SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH... 36087867 37837791 39657814 40657814 39867676 36007589 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 20:17:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 15:17:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504232027.j3NKRAfU019928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232026 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC...NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200... VALID 232026Z - 232200Z ...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EAST OF WW OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME... LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW200. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE EMERGED NEAR COASTAL WATERS FROM NC INTO SERN VA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE COAST...THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE EAST OF CURRENT WW. AT THIS TIME WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX... 34847786 36667689 40777604 39347486 35367621 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 21:46:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 16:46:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504232156.j3NLu643026806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232155 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AZ...AND SWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232155Z - 240000Z COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG A SSE-NNW AXIS FROM S-CENTRAL AZ TO SWRN UT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD...WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STRONG LOW-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR 30.5N 121W AT 2130Z WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA CA COAST. COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING SSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE 18Z RUC INDICATES THAT 500MB FLOW INCREASES TO 50-60KT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL AZ THROUGH 03Z WITH APPROACH OF UPPER WAVE. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED SUBSTANTIALLY...REACHING THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F IN VALLEY AND BASIN LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CONVECTION INCREASES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /40-45F/. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED STORMS IN STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD LIMIT NUMBER OF SEVERE...HAIL PRODUCING STORMS. ..BANACOS.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 37201405 37911314 37661206 33971005 32210906 31441000 31401114 32711270 34401385 35121399 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 23:07:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 18:07:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504232317.j3NNHOk5029396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232316 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-240015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...MD...DE...SRN NJ...ERN VA...NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200... VALID 232316Z - 240015Z VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 200 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. A STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT UP TO 40KT OFF THE VA CAPES AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. DESPITE STRONG FORCING ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION... WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ISOLATED/LIMITED. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50KT...AND SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE AT IT MOVES EAST OVER PORTIONS OF SERN PA/SRN NJ...AND ACROSS DELAWARE BAY...OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 36077701 36087723 39417642 40507685 40187551 39687508 38557501 36977507 36077598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 18:02:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 13:02:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504251812.j3PICnsa015644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251811 OKZ000-TXZ000-251915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251811Z - 251915Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED FROM WRN OK SWD TO NEAR SPS AND THEN SWWD TO JUST EAST OF SJT. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD...WHILE ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION...RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 C AT 500 MB/ ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FURTHER ENHANCE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A THREAT. ..PETERS.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36969647 35029585 33999580 33939773 34059843 35719872 36919914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 18:25:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 13:25:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504251835.j3PIZmJ2002338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251834 TXZ000-OKZ000-252000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING DFW METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251834Z - 252000Z CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX IS BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THREAT OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL /IN EXCESS OF 2" DIAMETER/ AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SFC PATTERN AT 1830Z FEATURES A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER FAR SWRN OK WITH A CONFLUENCE AXIS/DEVELOPING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM SPS TO BWD. MEANWHILE...A MESOSCALE COLD POOL EXISTS EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONTINUATION OF WEAK ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD. AXIS OF ONGOING...STRONG SFC HEATING BETWEEN THE FORMING DRYLINE AND WRN PERIPHERY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE DESTABILIZATION NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL NMM WRF AT 4KM RESOLUTION INDICATES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BEGINNING NEAR 21Z. STRONG ZONAL UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20 M/S...SUGGESTS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE SUPPORTED. ADDITIONALLY...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR NUMEROUS TORNADOES... HOWEVER...VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES DESPITE THE LESS THAN OPTIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. ..BANACOS.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 33959834 33729639 32869616 31779630 30539738 30739914 31049915 32729845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 21:07:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 16:07:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504252117.j3PLHgeI023287@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252116 TXZ000-OKZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0416 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX...INCLUDING DFW METRO AREA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202... VALID 252116Z - 252215Z SEVERE STORMS IN DFW METRO AREA DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /IN EXCESS OF 2" DIAMETER/ AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. TWO DOMINANT RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS ACROSS TARRANT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES IN THE FT. WORTH AREA WILL PROCEED EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DFW METRO AREA AT 25-30KT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE LOCALLY BACKED IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS...PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION. FT. WORTH VAD WIND PROFILE AND CURRENT STORM MOTION YIELDS HIGH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. MODIFICATION OF OBSERVED 19Z FWD SOUNDING YIELDS MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH THESE SUPERCELLS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS STORMS TRAVERSE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL CIN. ..BANACOS.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 30479695 30599831 31039856 32079832 33589751 33759698 33749572 32319615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 22:32:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 17:32:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504252242.j3PMg5AX004090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252241 OKZ000-TXZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201... VALID 252241Z - 260015Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY OK...IN SRN PORTION OF WW 202. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THIS REGION OF ENHANCED FORCING AND EXPECT STRENGTHENING STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS JEFFERSON... STEPHENS... AND CARTER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER N TX...IN TORNADO WATCH 202. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO APEX OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL ENSURE SUPERCELL EVOLUTION. SITUATION APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE...HAIL FROM THESE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34139593 34079859 36919757 36919489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 22:34:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 17:34:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504252244.j3PMikMZ004852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252244 COR OKZ000-TXZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201... VALID 252244Z - 260015Z CORRECTED FOR WATCH NUMBER IN FIRST SENTENCE... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY OK...IN SRN PORTION OF WW 201. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THIS REGION OF ENHANCED FORCING AND EXPECT STRENGTHENING STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS JEFFERSON... STEPHENS... AND CARTER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER N TX...IN TORNADO WATCH 202. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO APEX OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL ENSURE SUPERCELL EVOLUTION. SITUATION APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE...HAIL FROM THESE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34139593 34079859 36919757 36919489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 23:04:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 18:04:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504252314.j3PNENDI019057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252313 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...SERN OK...AND SWRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202... VALID 252313Z - 260015Z TORNADO WATCH 202 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR AREAS OF NERN TX...SERN OK...AND SWRN AR AS ONGOING ACTIVITY TRACKS GENERALLY EWD. THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA REVEALS A 998MB SFC LOW IN S-CENTRAL OK...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD TO JUST WEST OF THE DFW METRO AREA BEFORE ARCING SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN AXIS OF STRONG PRESSURE FALLS REMAINS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN N-CENTRAL TX /FALLS OF 3-4MB IN 2HRS/. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS RELATIVELY NARROW...EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN NNWWD TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE DFW METRO AREA. INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES TO THE EAST ACROSS NERN TX. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW 202 AREA...FROM FANNIN COUNTY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO HILL COUNTY SOUTH OF DALLAS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...AWAY FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY DRYLINE AT 25-30KT. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION...THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND GREATER CIN TO THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCED NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS...AND DECREASING TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS TRACK INTO NERN TX LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER PERSISTING SEVERE WEATHER INTO NERN TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 32389724 33829636 34509545 34469427 34189346 33009406 31899446 31379518 30529681 30559880 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 01:37:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 20:37:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504260146.j3Q1ku5k019161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260146 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0846 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN TX...SWRN AR/FAR NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202... VALID 260146Z - 260215Z WW 202 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z GIVEN ISOLATED THREAT ATTM. ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING IF A GREATER COVERAGE OF SVR IS ANTICIPATED. LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN ACROSS NRN TX AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TX. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER NCENTRAL TX AND MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DFW METRO AREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AS THEY MOVED WELL EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORM OVER GRAYSON COUNTY NORTH OF DFW APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER NW TX. AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD...EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS INTO NERN TX/SWRN AR AND FAR NWRN LA OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AREA WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD... 34069319 33789611 33509681 33029670 32219529 32669314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 01:40:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 20:40:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504260150.j3Q1oM7i020562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260149 ARZ000-OKZ000-260315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0849 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203... VALID 260149Z - 260315Z A FEW VIGOROUS TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS NERN-CNTRL OK AT THIS HOUR...AS WELL AS NEAR DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR HUGHES COUNTY...AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER. ALREADY WEAKLY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL FURTHER STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH LIFT CONTINUING ALONG THE MESOSCALE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH...A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION REMAINS LARGE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... 33969463 33979688 36339652 36379460 34999444 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 03:40:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 22:40:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504260350.j3Q3oHuT010158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260349 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0689 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260349Z - 260515Z CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS PRODUCING HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX...SERN OK AND SWRN AR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AN NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THESE AREAS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS OK LATE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST FROM SWRN OK AND NWRN TX. RETREATING DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WAS RECENTLY ANALYZED OVER SCNTRL OK NEAR CARTER COUNTY AND LATEST SFC/MESONET OBS THIS AREA INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE. RADAR ECHOES ALSO APPEAR TO BE BACKBUILDING SWWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THIS REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING. FURTHERMORE...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER WISE AND TARRANT COUNTIES IN NRN TX. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NERN TX AND SERN OK WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG AND DEEPENING ASCENT THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE OVER THE REGION. RESULTING TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THEREFORE...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 33819674 34669423 32319341 31349449 32099807 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 06:16:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 01:16:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504260626.j3Q6Q4qB006997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260624 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-260830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...NRN LA AND SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260624Z - 260830Z A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SW AR AND FAR NE TX WILL MOVE ESEWD WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT WATCH. INTENSE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH END OF AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS EAST TX AS SHOW ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FROM SERN AR SWWD INTO NE TX AS SHOW ON VAD WIND PROFILERS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER NE TX WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SHEAR PRESENT. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT-LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS SRN AR AND FAR NRN LA. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD GRADUALLY EWD OVERNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND LLJ SPREAD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ..BROYLES.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33339095 32899138 32319324 32369436 32669488 33059479 33869320 34039189 33759113 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 11:28:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 06:28:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261138.j3QBc02Z014671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261137 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0691 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS AND CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261137Z - 261300Z CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN SWRN LA AND SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED FOR SRN LA AND SRN AND CNTRL MS. SFC ANALYSIS AT 11Z SHOWS SSWLY FLOW TRANSPORTING UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD INTO SWRN LA. THIS IS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND A COASTAL FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NWD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED...AS TEMPS WARM...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO BECOME SFC-BASED. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR AND RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS ONCE STORMS BECOME SFC-BASED. ..BROYLES.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29429200 29689312 29829352 31299302 32169200 32149015 31648842 29448901 29319039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 14:39:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 09:39:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261449.j3QEnnhA010334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261449 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-261645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0692 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0949 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL INTO WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261449Z - 261645Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW. SHORT WAVE...PROGRESSING THROUGH BASE OF LARGER-SCALE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA/ CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS LINE CONTINUES EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...WITH RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. COOL MID-LEVEL AIR MASS IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...WITH FURTHER COOLING LIKELY AS BOUNDARY LAYER POSSESSING MID 50S+ DEW POINTS BEGINS TO WARM. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALREADY PRESENT IN BROAD CORRIDOR FROM MOBILE TO MONTGOMERY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG BY 18-20Z. AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD INTENSIFY...WITH WEAK CAP ALSO ALLOWING MORE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ALABAMA...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 31648847 32438838 33088714 34188639 34828530 34418403 32988426 31168514 30808635 30708770 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 15:57:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 10:57:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261607.j3QG79Ri003954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261605 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS AND ERN/SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205... VALID 261605Z - 261800Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH/EAST OF THE JACKSON/MERIDIAN AREAS. INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WW AREA APPEAR LIMITED...AND LIKELY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES NORTH/NORTHWEST OF GULFPORT MS/MOBILE AL TIL AROUND 19-19Z. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31078988 31458944 31548864 30978829 30358846 30148897 30188968 30358976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 17:10:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 12:10:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261720.j3QHKJS4030349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261719 FLZ000-GAZ000-261915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261719Z - 261915Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVERSPREADS REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS. SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS HAVE BECOME EVIDENT ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COASTAL AREAS...AND INLAND THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN INTERACTING BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY WEAKEN SOME AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS THIS AFTERNOON...ONGOING DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COMPENSATE FOR THIS...SUPPORTING RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 30238520 30738505 31048380 31298299 31398245 31358193 30808149 30228151 29968199 29748276 29798370 29838462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 18:45:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 13:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261855.j3QItC1G009147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261854 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-262000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS INTO CNTRL/SRN AL/SW GA/WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205... VALID 261854Z - 262000Z TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW 205 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 21Z. CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA. HOWEVER...SOUTHWARD ADVANCE TOWARD SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER...WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. BAND OF FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SOUTH OF BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE PONCHARTRAIN INTO AREAS NORTH OF BOUNDARY...ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. CAPE IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF OUTFLOW...AND MOIST LAYER ABOVE OUTFLOW...IS ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...AND WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL THREAT IN FAVORABLE COOL/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THIS POINT...HAIL HAS ONLY BEEN MARGINALLY IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS...BUT ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUTFLOW COULD STILL INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE MOBILE AREA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30779063 31118927 31668791 32468684 32808618 32718541 32188462 31278464 29718578 29368699 29088905 29749094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 20:08:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 15:08:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504262018.j3QKIqkj010597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262017 FLZ000-GAZ000-262115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL INTO CNTRL FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206... VALID 262017Z - 262115Z CONTINUE WW. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW AREA IN THE NEAR TERM AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH PHASING SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH AXIS IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TILT NOW...AND IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION. CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING COLD POOLS MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO SQUALL LINE APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 27/00Z. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY SPREAD OUT OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31028404 30978311 31048164 31008096 27607965 27648272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 22:21:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 17:21:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504262231.j3QMVk4H012262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262231 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-270000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 207... VALID 262231Z - 270000Z A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 207 FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY NEWD TO SWRN GA WHERE GREATER SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION HAVE OCCURRED. A BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WAS LOCATED NEAR A WEAK SFC LOW...TROUGH AXIS...AND WARM FRONT FROM WALTON COUNTY TO JACKSON COUNTY IN THE FL PNHDL. STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW ACROSS THIS ACTIVITY WAS RESULTING IN STRONGLY SHEARED UPDRAFTS AND FAST MOVING STORMS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA INDICATE WARM AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...PERHAPS LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH. HOWEVER...FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FARTHER EAST AND WITH TIME SUGGEST A GRADUAL EROSION OF THIS LAYER. GIVEN CONTINUATION OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE TOWARD A REGION WITH GREATER INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 29898450 29748703 30458650 31238566 31318446 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 22:38:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 17:38:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504262248.j3QMm9vK022709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262247 FLZ000-GAZ000-262345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN FL / SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206... VALID 262247Z - 262345Z STORMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE WITHIN STRONG CONVERGENT ZONE OVER THE ERN GULF...BUT ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD AND ONSHORE DUE TO LESSENING INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS LACKING AS UPPER TROUGH HAS BOTTOMED OUT...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAKENING AS WINDS VEERS. THUS...IT APPEARS THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DECREASING. THE GREATEST THREAT MAY BE OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 206..ADJACENT TO WW 207 WHERE STRONGER STORMS EXIST. EVEN THESE MAY WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY GET INTO WW 206. NONETHELESS...GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...STRONGER CORES MAY HAVE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL...BUT THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. ..JEWELL.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 27608277 31048408 31028091 27597964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 27 00:19:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 19:19:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504270029.j3R0TTKA016991@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270028 FLZ000-270130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206... VALID 270028Z - 270130Z LARGE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT UP TO 30KT ACROSS SCNTRL FL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 206 OVER THE REMAINING HALF HOUR VALID TIME. GIVEN THIS LIMITED THREAT IN SPACE AND TIME...ANOTHER WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME AND WATCH 206 WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z/8PM EDT. ..CARBIN.. 04/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... 27418272 27728280 28668140 29208023 27617966 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 19:36:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 14:36:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504281947.j3SJlLFO014494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281945 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0702 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME ERN OK...SRN MO...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281945Z - 282145Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW LIKELY WILL BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...BENEATH STRONG ZONAL SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. FIRST OF AT LEAST A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME IS NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM ALREADY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO LEAD SYSTEM...40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS ARKANSAS...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80F ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING...AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS EAST OF OKLAHOMA SURFACE LOW...ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...BOTH BOUNDARIES COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CAP WEAKENS AND FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM IMPULSE. SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 29/00Z...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR...MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...PRIMARY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ ..KERR.. 04/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37079394 37389291 37309011 36688997 35639083 34669192 34079256 34339345 34599475 35419453 35759450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 00:30:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 19:30:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504290040.j3T0ekBw014129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290039 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-290215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / ERN OK / NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208... VALID 290039Z - 290215Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS YET TO OCCUR ACROSS WW AREA. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LINE OF CUMULUS INVOF FRONT / LOW OVER ERN OK HAS NOT YET EVOLVED INTO TCU / CBS AS WAS ANTICIPATED. THOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN OK / NWRN AR...SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IS A NEGATIVE ACROSS THIS REGION. A LIMITED THREAT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS NRN AR...N OF BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING AR FROM W-E. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR UPDRAFT INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONFIRM BOUNDARY-LAYER INDICATIONS THAT GREATEST MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD EVOLVE E OF THIS REGION ACROSS TN NEAR NOSE OF SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THEREFORE...WITH WEAKER FORCING ANTICIPATED FURTHER W ACROSS AR...ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP MAY REMAIN ISOLATED. THIS COMBINED WITH OVERALL STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE / CAPE CONFIRMED BY EVENING LZK /LITTLE ROCK AR/ RAOB WOULD SUGGEST A ONLY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- WHICH SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME ACROSS WW AREA. ..GOSS.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36759426 37129162 36989110 35509157 34689264 34829551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 02:42:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 21:42:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504290252.j3T2qUx5023354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290251 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR / SERN MO / PARTS OF TN AND KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290251Z - 290415Z THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED. LONE SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING ATTM IN STONE COUNTY AR -- IN ERN PORTIONS OF WW 208 WHICH EXPIRES AT 29/03Z. THIS STORM IS THE LEFT-MOVING MEMBER OF A PRIOR SUPERCELL SPLIT...AND THIS SUPERCELL PAIR HAS BEEN THE ONLY CONVECTION OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED THREAT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THUS...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AT BEST ANTICIPATED...NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 36279264 37119014 37258779 36728643 36188606 35688887 35249230 35669277 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 09:26:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 04:26:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504290936.j3T9au4f004381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290936 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-291130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290936Z - 291130Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST OK ACROSS NORTHERN AR THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM WEST OF FSM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. NAM/RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE IN SPREADING CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED FOR TRENDS IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..HART.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36489443 36539361 36649225 36629122 35939125 35349228 35149371 35159498 35669555 36119544 36439495 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 14:24:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 09:24:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504291434.j3TEYoKG010466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291434 TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-291630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR...NW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... VALID 291434Z - 291630Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...WW 209 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW TO BETTER REFLECT THREAT AREA. SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION IS BECOMING SHEARED AS IT PROGRESSES INTO CONFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES. PRIMARY SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM....ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU... AND...IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MID-LEVEL WARMING MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID DAY...FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING ABOVE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 35459369 35559266 35509198 35539123 35659027 34569020 34409216 34459273 34789378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 17:16:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 12:16:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504291726.j3THQnw4022124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291725 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-291800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR INTO WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... VALID 291725Z - 291800Z SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE/NORTH OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO MAINTAIN RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. NEW WW IS CURRENTLY PLANNED BY THE 18Z EXPIRATION OF WW 209. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 35039419 35559336 35899247 36069142 36309020 36318929 35718905 35169006 34759118 34599173 34619306 34659365 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 19:07:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 14:07:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504291917.j3TJHmh8012656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291917 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-292115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX THRU SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291917Z - 292115Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER...MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DEEPEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR TEXARKANA. SOME DEEPENING OF LOW IS OCCURRING...BUT PRIMARY UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MAY TEND TO DELAY/SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING OF INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW... WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND BY 21-22Z AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 34049425 34219390 34289268 34399214 34099156 33539197 33129264 32759335 32719390 33189453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 19:19:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 14:19:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504291929.j3TJTjMb022299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291928 COR ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-292115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX THRU SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291928Z - 292115Z CORRECTED MD GRAPHIC TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER...MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DEEPEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR TEXARKANA. SOME DEEPENING OF LOW IS OCCURRING...BUT PRIMARY UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MAY TEND TO DELAY/SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING OF INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW... WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND BY 21-22Z AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 34049425 34219390 34289268 34399214 34099156 33539197 33129264 32759335 32719390 33189453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 20:31:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 15:31:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504292041.j3TKfaps014895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292040 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-292245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... VALID 292040Z - 292245Z CONTINUE WW. LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK INTO AREAS NORTH OF MEMPHIS. LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/WARM SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...AND AS THESE PARCELS ARE LIFTED ABOVE SHALLOW INVERSION LAYER...INCREASE IN CAPE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL SIZES WITH MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM MISSOURI/ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY TO FINALLY DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD 00Z. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK... 35089337 35759222 36069110 36348940 36848744 36648689 36248676 35908688 35628794 35338952 35009056 34729261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 21:01:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 16:01:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504292112.j3TLCLIK005740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292110 TXZ000-292315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INTO SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 292110Z - 292315Z WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VIS SATELLITE TRENDS ACROSS ERN INTO SCNTRL TX...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/WIND WOULD EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN INITIATION. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ALONG COLD FRONT IN ERN TX...WITH THE RELATIVELY MORE AGGRESSIVE CU FIELD OCCURRING NEAR THERMAL LOW/DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION IN SCNTRL TX NEAR TPL/AUS. GIVEN STRONG ELEVATED WARM LAYER /EVIDENT IN 12Z RAOBS/ ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL JET...ISOLD TSTM INITIATION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...AS SEEN IN 18Z RUC POINT SOUNDINGS...FRONTAL FORCING COMBINED WITH WELL MIXED AIRMASS /ON PERIPHERY OF 90F SFC TEMPS IN SCNTRL TX/ MAY PROMOTE A FEW ISOLD STORMS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT ISOLD SEVERE THREAT. ..GUYER.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29919672 29459820 29739839 30779742 31559609 32409534 31859464 30929524 30199614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 22:55:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 17:55:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504292305.j3TN5r35009320@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292304 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-300000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... VALID 292304Z - 300000Z GIVEN SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION OF WW 210 AND ONGOING SEVERE ACROSS WRN TN...A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR FAR NE AR INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN. MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE ALONG EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ECNTRL/NE AR INTO MIDDLE TN...WITH STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR/LONG HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT PER REGIONAL VADS/RUC SOUNDINGS. WITH INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING...A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON. ..GUYER.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK... 34759117 35469118 36479023 36618776 36568610 35098594 34968778 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 23:20:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 18:20:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504292330.j3TNUO6a021974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292329 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX / SRN AR / NRN LA / NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211... VALID 292329Z - 300100Z CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW...BUT STORMS REMAIN SUB-SEVERE ATTM. HOWEVER...SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW. DESPITE DEWP0INTS IN THE UPPER 60S...PERSISTENT SW-NE CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX / NWRN LA NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR HAS HINDERED BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WEAK AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED -- PRESUMABLY DUE TO THIS LACK OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS WARM SECTOR. AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO MS / NERN LA WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING / DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED...SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE. ..GOSS.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 32849439 34259360 35048831 33188813 31049449 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 01:44:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 20:44:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300154.j3U1sWU3028954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300153 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-300330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA / NRN MS / NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211... VALID 300153Z - 300330Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INVOF THE MS RIVER. WITH SEVERE THREAT FORECAST TO PERSIST...WW 211 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NERN LA...NRN MS AND EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN AL. SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY ACROSS MS / AL INTO THE TN VALLEY ATTM...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. STORM OVER NERN PANOLA COUNTRY MS HAS SHOWN SOME ROTATION RECENTLY...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME WITHIN BAND EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO NRN LA. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...FAVORABLY-SHEARED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AT LEAST AS FAR E AS WRN PORTIONS OF NRN AL...SO EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO EXTEND E OF CURRENT WW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY REPLACE WW 211 WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH COVERING MUCH OF NRN MS AND NRN AL. ..GOSS.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...SHV... 34638996 35168558 33308529 31619246 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 02:13:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 21:13:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300223.j3U2NwLd010651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300223 NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212... VALID 300223Z - 300400Z CONTINUE WW. EMBEDDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS MIDDLE/WRN TN WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME PER NASHVILLE VAD WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE FEED OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM THE SW INTO THE WATCH AREA. A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE PRECIPITATION AREA ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. STRONGER STORMS ARE RACING ENEWD AT 50-60KT IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...STRONG SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 60KT AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. SWD MOTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY DIABATIC EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION DOWNDRAFTS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. EFFECTIVE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS NRN MS AND S-CENTRAL TN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH UPGLIDE ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE. ..BANACOS.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...MEG... 34668997 35418998 35598945 36138870 36598381 35318380 35008721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 03:45:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 22:45:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300356.j3U3uANc020627@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300355 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX / SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300355Z - 300600Z WEAK / SHALLOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT. CONTINUED EROSION OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF LFK WSWWD TO NEAR DRT. SHALLOW CONVECTION -- PRESUMABLY BENEATH CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON EVENING RAOBS INVOF 800 MB -- NOW EXTENDS AS FAR SW AS THE SAT VICINITY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION -- IN THE 8 C/KM RANGE...WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SHOULD CAP BE BREACHED. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS WOULD SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS FORM. COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SERN NM / W TX AND FORCING INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF CAP FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 30220063 30179995 29839852 29959748 30149682 30609615 31319465 31489348 31059140 29639221 29749390 28849558 28099698 27859873 28400031 29750141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 05:59:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 00:59:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300609.j3U69nO5016771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300608 NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-300715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212... VALID 300608Z - 300715Z MUCH OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS MIDDLE AND ERN TN REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW OF UP TO 60KT AT 500MB...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC WAVE OVER NERN MS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY BE WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN...FROM MARSHALL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ENEWD ACROSS BEDFORD...COFFEE...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS TRACKING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN NRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STORM STRUCTURE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35348381 35068454 35028839 35308835 35788730 36668654 36598381 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 06:29:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 01:29:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300640.j3U6e7lq029538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300639 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-300815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LA...MS...AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 213... VALID 300639Z - 300815Z CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN/CNTRL MS...WRN AL...AND NERN LA EARLY TODAY. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM SFC LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN AL SWWD TO THE MS RIVER NEAR HEZ. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WERE MOVING GENERALLY EWD INTO AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY FROM THE MS DELTA TO WRN AL. STRONG DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CONTINUED LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TRACKING EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE MORE ENHANCED NEAR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL AND MESOCYCLONE IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MS EWD TO THE AL BORDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHERE SFC FLOW IS BACKED AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATES 0-1KM SRH APPROACHING 250 M2/S2. HOWEVER...STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN TROPICAL AIR MASS FROM EXTREME NERN LA ACROSS SCNTRL MS REGION WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...SHV... 31429013 31569342 34978894 34938562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 07:11:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 02:11:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300722.j3U7M6pB015274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300721 TXZ000-300945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW/SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300721Z - 300945Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SCNTRL TX. WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...AND ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM VAL VERDE AND CROCKETT COUNTIES NEWD TO MENARD AND CONCHO COUNTIES IN TX. THIS CONVECTION HAS LIKELY INITIATED ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FORCING WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM SRN NM AND FAR W TX. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY WAS LIKELY BEING LIFTED NWWD INTO THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RESULTANT INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FUEL A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SMALL MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS CONVECTION AND DRIFT ESEWD NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST HAZARD FROM THIS CONVECTION AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... 30039850 29200099 29640139 30510143 31129999 31379945 31309883 30969844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 11:31:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 06:31:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301142.j3UBgDHo028721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301141 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...GA....AL....SRN MS...SERN LA...WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215... VALID 301141Z - 301315Z EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT UP TO 50KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA...SERN AL AND PARTS OF THE FL PNHDL THIS MORNING. FARTHER SW...FROM SRN AL ACROSS SERN LA...EWD MOTION OF THE LINE WILL BE SLOWER. LATEST MOTION ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 215 WOULD SUGGEST THAT A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF GA...SERN AL...AND PERHAPS SC...IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS COLD POOLS HAVE MERGED AND FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS QUITE STRONG. A POSSIBLE MESOLOW HAS EVOLVED OVER CNTRL AL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NRN AND SRN SQUALL LINE SEGMENTS. NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION...SOME MOVING AT OVER 50KT...WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE LINES AND ARE LIKELY PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OF 30-50KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE WRN FL PNHDL NEWD ACROSS GA AND SC THIS MORNING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATED THAT THE PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STEADILY DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE LINE. THUS...EXPECT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A COUPLE TORNADOES TO PERSIST EWD AS STRONG LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING CONTINUE TO ACT ON VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 34508481 33888408 33668146 33308108 31788242 28308749 28478950 29719064 31958796 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 13:10:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 08:10:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301320.j3UDKP8H020803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301319 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301319 NCZ000-SCZ000-301345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC AND NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301319Z - 301345Z RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL IS INCREASING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34168251 35168186 35808123 36418047 36497904 36337796 36247705 35287769 34257829 33307953 32808060 33168158 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 14:49:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 09:49:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301459.j3UExk9u013819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301459 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301458 LAZ000-TXZ000-301700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301458Z - 301700Z THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS GENERALLY ADVANCED OFF TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... AND FRONTAL INVERSION CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/ EASTERN TEXAS. HOWEVER...AIR MASS ABOVE INVERSION LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF MAIN SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CAPE FOR PARCELS IN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER MAY BE A BIT LARGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE...HAIL SIZES LIKELY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29249897 29909777 30569595 30889437 30569376 30179365 29279466 28199624 27619822 27999889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 15:15:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 10:15:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301526.j3UFQ8Vq029698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301525 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301525 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-301730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/EASTERN CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... VALID 301525Z - 301730Z SURFACE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES DEEPEN AND DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT APPROACHES TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ...AS MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES IS TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE...AND COLD POOL STRENGTHENS/SURGES DOWN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAINS. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33458142 34338085 35418019 35957987 36467869 36437751 36227687 35657697 34807764 34257862 33637949 32978016 32798058 32798166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 15:52:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 10:52:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301603.j3UG38tP019454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301602 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301602 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA/SE MS/SR AL/WRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215... VALID 301602Z - 301700Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17Z. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA/SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...AND IS ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. HOWEVER... LARGE CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/WESTERN FLORIDA...AND OFF CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE IT IS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL/FRONT... AND WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CONVECTION LIKELY WILL LIMIT HAIL THREAT. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30389065 30718979 31258834 31428714 31258620 30208575 29578644 29028778 28368930 28339053 28569197 29559258 30219177 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 16:38:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 11:38:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301649.j3UGn5EC016543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301648 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-301715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216... VALID 301648Z - 301715Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WEATHER WW 216 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW...WHICH WILL INCLUDE GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS... SHORTLY. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE EASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AT 45 TO 50 KTS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH THIS LINE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SAVANNAH/BRUNSWICK AREAS BY AROUND 18Z. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31708266 32348221 32668128 31918100 31308124 30858144 30488176 29868302 30188406 30788373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 17:08:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 12:08:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301718.j3UHIYu5002734@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301717 VAZ000-NCZ000-301915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA/ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301717Z - 301915Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER. 45 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE FORCING...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MOIST DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS HEATING TOWARD 80F...AND CAPE IS INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG. THUS...THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN COLD POOL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS INTO THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREAS BY 20-21Z. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 37817769 38067676 37347591 36307587 35417612 35237732 35577787 36327828 36587833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 19:12:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 14:12:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301922.j3UJMS7N013398@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301921 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-302015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC...COASTAL SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... VALID 301921Z - 302015Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT SCHEDULED 20Z EXPIRATION. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT...AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN CAPPING...HAVE APPARENTLY INHIBITED MORE VIGOROUS/EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT TO SUGGEST FURTHER STRENGTHENING IN NEAR TERM...OTHER THAN PRESENCE OF POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF GUST FRONT...WHICH CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN. THUS... SEVERE THREAT HAS NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISHED...BUT IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO CONTINUE WW. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... 36257728 37207703 37707686 37557658 37147635 36417637 35437601 35067628 34807696 34227808 33367910 32778012 33138006 34057894 35727771 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 19:15:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 14:15:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301925.j3UJPhd9015701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301925 NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218... VALID 301925Z - 302100Z SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NE HALF OF WW 218 OVER MUCH SRN/ERN GA...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING ACROSS THE NRN FL PORTION OF WW 218. CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS QUICKLY THROUGH COASTAL GA. AIRMASS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THESE TSTMS...WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT DIMINISHING ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER SOUTH...FROM THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA...MAIN SEVERE THREAT PRIMARILY REMAINS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WHERE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. GIVEN APPROACHING DYNAMIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN TX/WRN LA...ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS BULK OF NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...MEG... 34668997 35418998 35598945 36138870 36598381 35318380 35008721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 00:51:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 19:51:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010050.j310o6hR019648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010049 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-010145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL/SERN TX INTO WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010049Z - 010145Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY TONIGHT ACROSS SABINE RIVER INTO CNTRL LA. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. AS OF 0035Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG ERN EDGE OF WW 115 OVER PANOLA/SHELBY COUNTIES IN FAR E-CNTRL TX...AS WELL AS OVER ALLEN AND EVANGELINE PARISHES IN SWRN LA. COMPARISON OF 31/18Z AND 01/00Z LCH SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /LARGELY VIA LOW-LEVEL WAA/ HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST PROFILE AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF CAP. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT SHOULD EXPEDITE NWD RETURN OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH LA. WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOSER TO 01/06Z AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NWD AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... 31279429 32059412 33029398 33029298 32999214 30299231 30059425 30729432 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 01:09:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 20:09:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010108.j3118hQh032297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010107 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 115... VALID 010107Z - 010300Z LINE OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS OF WW 115. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 115 AND WRN LA AROUND 06Z. BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EWD AROUND 20 KTS INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS...MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 115. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR WILL REMAIN NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE FOR SOME TIME. TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...TOWARDS 06Z...AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARDS ERN EDGE OF WW 115 AND INTO WRN LA WHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND HIGHER DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S MOVES NWD. SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS FAR NERN TX...WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL STILL EXIST...GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THAT THIS AREA WILL NOT BE CLEARED FROM WW 115 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30779708 31809662 33139603 33749565 33689370 30759483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 02:27:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 21:27:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010226.j312QH5v020125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010225 LAZ000-TXZ000-010330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX / SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010225Z - 010330Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BECOME NECESSARY. STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SERN TX AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO SWRN LA GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ..JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... 29259495 29619728 30689659 30629220 29529226 29749372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 03:02:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 22:02:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010301.j3131ARV011799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010259 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116... VALID 010259Z - 010400Z GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 116 THROUGH 04Z-05Z...WHILE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER ERN PART OF WW. AS OF 0240Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE HP SUPERCELL OVER WEST FELICIANA/POINT COUPEE PARISHES MOVING 245/30KTS. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE LOCATED VERY NEAR WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS SRN LA. INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. CURRENT VWPS FROM LCH AND LIX INDICATE FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 45-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...IT APPEARS PRIMARY FACTORS LIMITING TORNADO THREAT IS WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /PER LATEST BTR/LFT OBSERVATIONS/ AND RAIN-COOLED NEAR SURFACE AIR N OF WARM FRONT. OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA /I.E. E OF A MCB TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN LINE/ STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A LARGE COMPLEX WITH BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG WRN EDGE OF SYSTEM. PERSISTENT INFLUX OF 1.7-1.9 INCH PW AIR MASS ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SUSTAIN THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31849194 31768840 30158839 30229198 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 03:29:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 22:29:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010328.j313SK6F030681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010327 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-010430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN TX INTO WRN/CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 117... VALID 010327Z - 010430Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENTIRE WW AREA. 03Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER E-CNTRL TX /NEAR GGG/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS LA TO VICINITY OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE EWD ACROSS ERN/SERN TX. STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER NWRN LA HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL AND ARE LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. INCREASING SLY LLJ AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THIS ELEVATED SEVERE STORM/LARGE HAIL THREAT N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR GGG SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 117 WITHIN THE HOUR. MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THUS FAR...SURFACE LOW HAS SHOWN LITTLE TENDENCY TO DEEPEN WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS WW AREA. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 33029402 33009168 30689229 30739485 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 04:55:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 23:55:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010454.j314srdL020603@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010454 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010453 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-010600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LA EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...117... VALID 010453Z - 010600Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 116/117. AS OF 0435Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED BOW ECHO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED S OF SHV WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION OF AROUND 40 KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW...AND THAT EXTRAPOLATION WILL TAKE IT N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. 3-HR PRESSURE TENANCIES INDICATE CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY STRONGER FALLS FROM THIS LOW EWD INTO CNTRL MS /JAN/...LIKELY INDICATING IT/S EVENTUAL TRACK OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD WITH SURFACE WIND INCREASING FROM THE SE AT POE THIS PAST HOUR. FARTHER E...PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SERN LA INTO SRN MS WILL LIKELY IMPEDE NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT MAIN UPPER SYSTEM STILL IS DIGGING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF TX/OK...SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS STILL NOT IN PHASE WITH SURFACE WARM SECTOR AND AS A RESULT...SURFACE LOW HAS SHOWN LITTLE OR NO DEEPENING. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONES. FT. POLK VWP HAS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE PAST HOUR AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 33059391 32938832 30578838 30789486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 06:28:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 01:28:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010627.j316RWVL014005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010625 LAZ000-TXZ000-010800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR UPPER TX COAST / SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 118... VALID 010625Z - 010800Z CAPPING EVIDENT OVER SRN HALF OF WW WITH STORMS STRUGGLING TO FORM. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW STORMS INTENSIFYING FROM TYLER COUNTY TX NEWD TO SABINE COUNTY TX WHERE FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STRONG. GIVEN VEERING 850 FLOW AND RESULTING THETA-E / INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTING EWD...LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO NERN PORTIONS OF WW THROUGH EXPIRATION TIME...ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY COUNTY TX INTO COASTAL SW LA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK. ..JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29979506 30749455 30689180 29589223 29729338 29849487  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 07:31:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 02:31:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504010730.j317U34X016191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010729 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010729Z - 010930Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE ACROSS SRN AL / THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH ONGOING THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WHICH HAS PUSHED S OF THE CENTRAL / ERN GULF COAST SHOULD LIFT NWD WITH TIME AS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SRN LA SHIFTS NEWD. STRONG / ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACR0SS THE GULF COAST REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY MARGINAL HAIL. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD WITH TIME...STORMS MAY BECOME LESS ELEVATED...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS SWRN AL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWD RETREAT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED / EVOLVING SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... 31928844 30908548 30258583 30208855 29668923 28928898 29149061 30509010 30878862 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 10:16:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 05:16:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011015.j31AFtXE012345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011014 MSZ000-LAZ000-011215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS / ERN LA / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...120... VALID 011014Z - 011215Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW. LINE OF CONVECTION -- DELINEATING THE EFFECTIVE REAR EDGE OF ONGOING SEVERE THREAT -- EXTENDS FROM KEMPER COUNTRY MS SWWD INTO POINTE COUPEE PARISH LA. GREATEST THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...EXISTS OVER EXTREME SERN PORTIONS OF WW IN SERN MS...AND EWD INTO AL / WW 120. THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM W TO E WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30659120 32868894 32838848 30528849 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 13:47:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 08:47:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011346.j31DkDlJ020421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011344 FLZ000-GAZ000-011545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL INTO SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011344Z - 011545Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL / THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR NEW WW IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP SHOWS MESOLOW DEVELOPING OVER S CENTRAL AL ATTM. STORMS WHICH WERE EARLIER OVER SRN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A BOW-SHAPED ECHO S OF THIS MESOLOW / ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE ATTM AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST IN THE NERN GULF...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS SURFACE WIND INCREASES FROM THE S AHEAD OF MESOLOW. AS BOUNDARY LAYER RETREATS AND LIMITED HEATING COMMENCES THROUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST...DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW BOWING LINE OF STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED. THUS...GIVEN FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30888516 31098450 31328399 31498281 30858176 29548214 29158284 29198312 29508337 29698342 29758361 29898362 30128401 30058437 29578502 29708533 29918538 30238589 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 17:18:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 12:18:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011717.j31HHEU3030019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011716 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MS/FAR NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011716Z - 011945Z LARGE HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MS/FAR NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN. ALTHOUGH WW NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...WITH BUILDING CB/S DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR ATOP LOWER CLOUD DECK ACROSS FAR NRN MS. GIVEN EWD PROGRESSION OF DYNAMIC ASCENT...SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/NE ACROSS FAR NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN ALONG/NORTH OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONDITIONAL HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING AS MUCH AS 500-750 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE AMIDST SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34028877 34098928 34688949 35628872 36648663 36538556 35298560 35218554 34588725 34078848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 17:22:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 12:22:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011721.j31HLIrj001302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011720 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011720 ALZ000-MSZ000-011915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011720Z - 011915Z SURFACE BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MS/WRN AL AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN AL THEN SWWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL/WRN MS. SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN MS THROUGH AL. THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHIFTED OFFSHORE S OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...BUT RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF UPPER SPEED MAX/VORTICITY CENTER WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH AL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER... STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. OTHER MORE PERSISTENT DISCRETE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ..DIAL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 32049004 33998845 34878660 33988602 32048722 31148879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 19:18:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 14:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504011917.j31JHPi4010525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011916 GAZ000-FLZ000-012115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121... VALID 011916Z - 012115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE EWD INTO NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM SRN GA SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE. STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THE LINE EXTEND FROM JUST SE OF TALLAHASSEE SWWD TO NEAR APALACHICOLA...MOVING EAST AT 35 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SWD INTO NRN FL...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST N OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NE ACROSS SRN GA/EXTREME NRN FL. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH NRN FL. ..DIAL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29828491 30108408 30658316 31318250 31478158 30488149 29768162 29548229 29398330 29178432 29048511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:03:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:03:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012102.j31L24gf005901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012100 TNZ000-ALZ000-012230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CNTRL MS THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN AL INTO S CNTRL TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122... VALID 012100Z - 012230Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST AS SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH NRN AL NEAR HUNTSVILLE AND FARTHER SW INTO EXTREME ERN MS NEAR MERIDIAN. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30 KT. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NRN AL ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET HAS PROMOTED INCREASING SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AL. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW IS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM AIR THAT HAS BEEN PARTIALLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS. SO DESPITE PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF THE MCS...MLCAPE OF ONLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60. DESPITE THIS LIMITING FACTOR...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITHIN THE LINE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..DIAL.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 33818755 35118683 35118578 34238603 33098654 32348674 32228753 32258836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:18:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:18:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012117.j31LHXEE018801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012115 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012115Z - 012315Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF EXISTING WW 122. RECENT VIS IMAGERY FEATURES DEEPENING CU FIELD IN SE MS /SE OF I-59/ ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SW AL N/NW OF MOBILE. ALTHOUGH SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SWD INTO SE MS THIS AFTERNOON...ARRIVAL OF GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY SUPPORT INITIATION ACROSS FAR SE MS/SW AL. 18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH NEGLIGIBLE SFC BASED CINH REMAINING OWING TO SUFFICIENT HEATING /LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31978876 32098699 31398696 30548767 30488906 30888936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:21:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:21:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012120.j31LKJsu020850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012119 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012119Z - 012315Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF EXISTING WW 122. RECENT VIS IMAGERY FEATURES DEEPENING CU FIELD IN SE MS /SE OF I-59/ ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SW AL N/NW OF MOBILE. ALTHOUGH SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SWD INTO SE MS THIS AFTERNOON...ARRIVAL OF GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY SUPPORT INITIATION ACROSS FAR SE MS/SW AL. 18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH NEGLIGIBLE SFC BASED CINH REMAINING OWING TO SUFFICIENT HEATING /LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31978876 32098699 31398696 30548767 30488906 30888936 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:30:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:30:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012129.j31LT2uj027669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012115 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012115Z - 012315Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF EXISTING WW 122. RECENT VIS IMAGERY FEATURES DEEPENING CU FIELD IN SE MS /SE OF I-59/ ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SW AL N/NW OF MOBILE. ALTHOUGH SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SWD INTO SE MS THIS AFTERNOON...ARRIVAL OF GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY SUPPORT INITIATION ACROSS FAR SE MS/SW AL. 18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH NEGLIGIBLE SFC BASED CINH REMAINING OWING TO SUFFICIENT HEATING /LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31978876 32098699 31398696 30548767 30488906 30888936  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 21:38:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 16:38:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012137.j31LbPKE002038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012119 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS/SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012119Z - 012315Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF EXISTING WW 122. RECENT VIS IMAGERY FEATURES DEEPENING CU FIELD IN SE MS /SE OF I-59/ ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SW AL N/NW OF MOBILE. ALTHOUGH SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SWD INTO SE MS THIS AFTERNOON...ARRIVAL OF GLANCING DYNAMIC ASCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY SUPPORT INITIATION ACROSS FAR SE MS/SW AL. 18Z BASED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH NEGLIGIBLE SFC BASED CINH REMAINING OWING TO SUFFICIENT HEATING /LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31978876 32098699 31398696 30548767 30488906 30888936  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 22:57:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 17:57:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012256.j31Mu2kM025377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012255 NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN SWD ACROSS NWRN GA/NERN AL INTO S-CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012255Z - 020000Z A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR OF SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM ROUGHLY TYS SSWWD THROUGH RMG...ANB...MGM TO MOB. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 22Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER MIDDLE TN WITH REGION OF 4-5 MB/3-HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN TN INTO ERN KY...LIKELY DEPICTING EVENTUAL TRACK OF CYCLONE. LINE OF TSTMS IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM NERN AL SWWD TO W OF MOB...GENERALLY MOVING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ EXISTS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE FROM S-CNTRL AL INTO ERN TN. FARTHER E...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXISTENCE OF BILLOW CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF GA INTO SERN AL AND THE FL PNHDL IS LARGELY STABILIZED OUTFLOW FROM MCS IN PROGRESS OVER NRN FL. VWPS ACROSS NARROW WARM SECTOR ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. THUS...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD E OF WW 122 THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NARROW SPATIAL EXTENT OF EXISTING INSTABILITY AXIS...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 33978614 35508539 36058451 35908362 35208395 33438554 31218650 31058717 31248793 32718669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 23:25:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 18:25:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012324.j31NOESH010915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012323 FLZ000-GAZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121... VALID 012323Z - 020030Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS AREA AND TORNADO WATCH 121 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT MCS OVER SRN GA/NRN FL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION OFFSHORE OVER THE NERN GULF. WHILE AIR MASS S OF MCS REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WSWLY AND RESULTED IN: 1) WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG SYSTEM COLD POOL AND 2) AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 00Z ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO ALLOW WW 121 TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. STRONGER OFFSHORE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30898519 31628144 29548143 28878525 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 23:33:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 18:33:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012333.j31NX0EK016306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012255 NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN SWD ACROSS NWRN GA/NERN AL INTO S-CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012255Z - 020000Z A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR OF SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM ROUGHLY TYS SSWWD THROUGH RMG...ANB...MGM TO MOB. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 22Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER MIDDLE TN WITH REGION OF 4-5 MB/3-HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN TN INTO ERN KY...LIKELY DEPICTING EVENTUAL TRACK OF CYCLONE. LINE OF TSTMS IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM NERN AL SWWD TO W OF MOB...GENERALLY MOVING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ EXISTS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE FROM S-CNTRL AL INTO ERN TN. FARTHER E...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXISTENCE OF BILLOW CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF GA INTO SERN AL AND THE FL PNHDL IS LARGELY STABILIZED OUTFLOW FROM MCS IN PROGRESS OVER NRN FL. VWPS ACROSS NARROW WARM SECTOR ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. THUS...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD E OF WW 122 THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NARROW SPATIAL EXTENT OF EXISTING INSTABILITY AXIS...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 33978614 35508539 36058451 35908362 35208395 33438554 31218650 31058717 31248793 32718669  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 23:48:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 18:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504012347.j31Nl9Lq024382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012323 FLZ000-GAZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121... VALID 012323Z - 020030Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS AREA AND TORNADO WATCH 121 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT MCS OVER SRN GA/NRN FL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION OFFSHORE OVER THE NERN GULF. WHILE AIR MASS S OF MCS REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WSWLY AND RESULTED IN: 1) WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG SYSTEM COLD POOL AND 2) AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 00Z ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO ALLOW WW 121 TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. STRONGER OFFSHORE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 04/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30898519 31628144 29548143 28878525  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 09:48:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 04:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504020947.j329l7Je023424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020945 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-021145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS / S CENTRAL VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020945Z - 021145Z WEAK DESTABILIZATION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS / S CENTRAL VA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT -- EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW OVER CENTRAL WV -- IS NOW MOVING E OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST. SLY FLOW THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR IS ALLOWING MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO ADVECT NWD S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT -- WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE VA / NC BORDER. THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINS A NEGATIVE IN TERMS OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE UVV ALONG FRONT / AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH / LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE A NARROW / EWD-MOVING LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS WRN VA INTO WRN NC. WITH STRONG SSWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...LINE MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG / SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING NNEWD ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SRN SC. WITH TIME...THESE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A N-S LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL VA SWD INTO ERN SC...INCLUDING A FEW / EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 04/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 37567994 37757841 37437698 35487696 33047930 31968091 33138162 36538058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 13:31:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 08:31:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504021330.j32DUUPG021242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021329 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-021500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SERN VA / NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021329Z - 021500Z THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG / SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO EXIST...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY MIDDAY. WITH RELATIVELY MOIST /60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN VA AND ADJACENT NERN NC...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MINIMALLY UNSTABLE. LIMITED DESTABILIZATION MAY CONTINUE AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD EWD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID / UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO NNEWD ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD -- AS REVEALED BY MORNING RAOBS AND AREA VWPS -- SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BROKEN / FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THIS LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY MIDDAY / EARLY AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVE ENDING ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 04/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38777687 38957524 38587496 36117581 36167746 36437844 37327844 38007814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 16:25:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 11:25:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504021624.j32GOfvu002327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021624 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021623 NCZ000-021830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OUTER BANKS OF NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021623Z - 021830Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...MAINLY ALONG AND S OF CAPE HATTERAS. THREAT AREA APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN SIZE TO WARRANT A WW. LATE THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC FROM NEAR AND S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NWD TO JUST E OF CEDAR ISLAND. STRONG LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS MOVES SLOWLY EWD. THE BEST THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ALONG AND S OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FARTHER NWD TOWARD THE NRN OUTER BANKS. ..DIAL.. 04/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX... 34727687 35667575 35097523 34507617 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 20:19:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 15:19:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504022018.j32KITg8030976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022017 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-022215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022017Z - 022215Z LOW TOPPED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CNTRL/ERN VA NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH VA WITH AN AXIS OF PARTIAL CLEARING FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN VA. WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN VA SSEWD THROUGH SERN VA. ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOWER 60S AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 300 TO 500 J/KG EXTENDS ACROSS ERN VA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE INSTABILITY RESIDES IN A SHALLOW LAYER BETWEEN 0-5 KM...BUT COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THIS LAYER. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORT MAX/JET STREAK SPREAD NEWD. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 04/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... 36527701 36707761 37327793 38577858 38757762 37587642 36847630 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 3 07:05:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Apr 2005 02:05:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504030704.j3374BFJ007472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030703 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-031100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CST SUN APR 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/WRN PA/WV/FAR WRN MD/SWRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 030703Z - 031100Z LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH HEAVIEST SNOW RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. LATEST WV LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN MD WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL NY/NRN NJ. AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD ACROSS ERN PA/SCNTRL NY OVERNIGHT...COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE WRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH 45-50 KT MID LEVEL JET. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH HAS SET UP FROM CLE/BKW. IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV/WRN MD AND SWRN PA. SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM YNG/PHD/JST/ELZ AS OF 07Z...WITH WET BULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILES...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN PA/ERN OH AND INTO PORTIONS OF WV. THE DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER WILL FAVOR OCNLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 04/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 41558194 40298173 37888104 37668032 38417921 40247837 41657774 42727780 43307787 43397841 43277917 42668172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 03:38:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2005 22:38:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504070337.j373b09s021275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070336 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-070430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136... VALID 070336Z - 070430Z WW 136 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT TRAINING STORMS LOCATED FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL/FAR SWRN GA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY RANGING FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO TRAIN NEWD ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM OVER THE NRN GULF...OFF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST...TO FAR SERN AL /HOUSTON COUNTY/ AND THEN NNEWD INTO WRN GA. 00Z RUC SHOWED A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH THIS CONFLUENCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 60 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET NWRN GULF WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND THE FL PANHANDLE. ..PETERS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31668624 31628470 29858497 29868643 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 04:53:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2005 23:53:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504070452.j374qDQv003942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070450 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/MUCH OF AL/WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135... VALID 070450Z - 070545Z DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO SERN MS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL AL. HAIL WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL/ERN AL AND WRN GA...IF CURRENT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL/WRN AL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM WALKER COUNTY AL TO CHOCTAW COUNTY AL MOVING TO THE ENE AT 35-40 KT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENE ACROSS SERN AR/MS ATTM ALONG WITH UPWARD MOTION WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER AL. 03Z RUC SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT TO ALONG THE AL/GA LINE BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY ATTM AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT IS MARGINAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... 34148809 34738490 32288462 30558774 30799007 31049005 31828898 32788827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 08:55:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 03:55:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504070854.j378sZtM014102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070853 FLZ000-071100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE / N FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070853Z - 071100Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOIST /MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ERN GULF...WHICH CONTINUES ADVECTING NWD AHEAD OF PERSISTENT NNE-SSW CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN GA INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN GA AND INTO N FL ABOVE A SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS INDICATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. LATEST AREA VWPS SHOW FAVORABLY-STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES -- WITH FLOW STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY ETA / RUC PFCS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL / ERN FL PANHANDLE COAST...AND MAY EXPAND ENEWD INTO PARTS OF N FL LATER THIS MORNING. ..GOSS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 30508484 30588385 30468321 30288295 29708340 30118402 30098433 29608505 29668530 29848537 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 12:55:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 07:55:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504071253.j37Crp4d006848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071252 FLZ000-071445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE / NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 071252Z - 071445Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE E CENTRAL AND NERN GULF OF MEXICO NNEWD ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO E CENTRAL AND SERN GA. ALONG WITH ONGOING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL COASTAL BEND AND EVENTUALLY INTO N FL. MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS REVEALED BY AREA VWPS AND AREA 12Z RAOBS. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...PERSISTENT TRAINING OF STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO GA. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT EWD ACCELERATION OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...INCLUDING PERSISTENT / LARGE SUPERCELL JUST SW OF AAF /APALACHICOLA FL/. INLAND AIRMASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERN GULF CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS N FL. NONETHELESS...WITH STORMS LIKELY MOVING ONSHORE OVER COASTAL NWRN FL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD EXIST. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONGOING THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT BY SOMEWHAT MORE RAPID EWD MOTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE EXHIBITED RECENTLY. ..GOSS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30188405 30318359 30408281 30108234 29478212 28688262 29128279 29198309 29708348 29978374 29668497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 16:06:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 11:06:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504071605.j37G5DJa008318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071603 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-071800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN GA...E-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL/NERN AL...MIDDLE/SERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071603Z - 071800Z TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. SMALL/BRIEF TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AMIDST CLOUD BREAKS...DIABATIC HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CINH ACROSS THIS REGION. MODIFIED FFC RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARCELS SHOULD BE SFC BASED ATTM. MLCAPES SHOULD RISE INTO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...AS SFC TEMPS RISE THROUGH MID 60S/LOWER 70S F WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE WITH DISTANCE FROM DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS...REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WRN TN. THIS SHEAR PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN CURRENT VWP DATA. FCST HODOGRAPHS FROM RUC ALSO EXPAND WITH SEWD EXTENT OVER REGION...WITH 0-1 KM SRH LESS THAN 50 J/KG IN MID TN BUT EXCEEDING 200 J/KG AROUND ATL...IN 17-19Z TIME FRAME. THEREFORE... PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE GREATER OVER GA AND ADJACENT AL BORDER PORTION OF AREA THAN N-CENTRAL AL OR MIDDLE TN. NEGATIVE SFC THETAE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT -- NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME WRN AL -- SHOULD REDUCE SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM W-E ACROSS NRN AL THIS AFTERNOON. ..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33068600 34068680 34558698 35938767 36348622 36068556 34918428 33918394 33008437 32468496 32488576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 16:48:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 11:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504071647.j37GlDZv016261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071646 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0518 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SC...CENTRAL/ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071646Z - 071845Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CAROLINAS...ALONG AND E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRE-EXISTING/NONSEVERE CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...ISOLATED HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING AND SBCINH DIMINISHING RAPIDLY E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM GSO...30 W SOP...30 SW FLO...NBC...AS OF 1630Z. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR REINTENSIFICATION AND BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT WITHIN LINE...AS WELL AS FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWS TO ITS E WHERE DEEPENING TCU AND SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ATTM IN VIS/REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 35-40 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVIATE RIGHTWARD -- MOVING NE TO ENE -- MAY ROTATE AMIDST 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG...BASED ON PRE-STORM VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS. AS HEATING CONTINUES...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 DEG F RANGE. ASSOCIATED DEEPER MIXING OF SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL AUGMENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33478014 34758043 35498008 36298004 36587874 36467712 35257718 34297768 33487837 32957908 32388049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 17:02:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 12:02:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504071701.j37H1cMI029821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071700 FLZ000-GAZ000-071900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN FL...SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137... VALID 071700Z - 071900Z OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED ACROSS MOST OF GA COAST...WHILE TSTMS OVER LAND HAVE WEAKENED ALONG/BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS GA AND NRN FL. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER FL...AS WELL AS SEVERE TSTMS MOVING INLAND W COAST...AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE...WHICH IS MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS REGIME GIVEN 75-150 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND 35-45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT IN PRE-STORM VWP. BOW ECHO -- EVIDENT AT 17Z ABOUT 90 NM ENE TPA OVER OPEN GULF WATERS -- MAY MOVE ONSHORE PORTIONS CITRUS/HERNANDO/LEVY COUNTIES IN 19-20Z TIME FRAME WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE RISK...THEN INLAND TOWARD OCF BY ABOUT 21Z. ..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 27388311 30308310 31688106 28798105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 20:21:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 15:21:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504072019.j37KJpJ5032057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072018 FLZ000-GAZ000-072145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137... VALID 072018Z - 072145Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND -- MOVING EWD ACROSS ST JOHNS/PUTNAM/MARION/CITRUS COUNTIES ATTM WITH A FEW EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAT WOULD COVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL S OF WW 137. NRN FL CONVECTIVE BAND GENERALLY IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS NRN FL IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION IN INFLOW LAYER...AND STRONG HEATING NOW NEAR DIURNAL PEAK. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE...WHICH WILL HOLD STEADY IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. SOME SFC VEERING HAS DIMINISHED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH 0-6 KM VALUES NOW IN 30-35 KT RANGE...HOWEVER HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BOWS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...GIVEN ROUGHLY 30 DEG OR MORE RIGHTWARD DEVIANCE IN MOTION. 0-1 KM SRH UP TO 150-200 J/KG RANGE REMAIN POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER FL W COAST -- FROM TBW AREA SWD -- AND OVER INLAND SRN/CENTRAL FL MAY BE INCREASING. VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY PROFILES ARE SIMILARLY FAVORABLE OVER THOSE AREAS. DISCRETE DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER KISSIMMEE VALLEY N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND INVOF SEA BREEZE INTERSECTION WITH HORIZONTAL ROLLS SW OF THAT LAKE. COMPLEX OF TSTMS AROUND 100 WSW SRQ -- AS OF 20Z -- ALSO MAY AFFECT W COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 28358067 27948049 27108025 26388082 25968133 25998180 26798229 26998271 27388311 30308310 31688106 28798105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 21:54:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 16:54:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504072153.j37Lr8p9023650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072152 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-072215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072152Z - 072215Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF GA. MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EAST OF CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN MS/WRN TN...HAS ALLOWED STRONG SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S/ ACROSS MUCH OF WRN GA WITHIN MOIST AXIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THIS AXIS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM SERN AL INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN GA SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADING EWD ATOP THIS REGION SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. THUS...MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER NWWD ACROSS NWRN GA/NERN AL...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS SINCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. ..PETERS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 34168474 34388394 33808295 32258242 30918244 30738357 30698485 31278515 33508515 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 23:22:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 18:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504072321.j37NL8aZ026513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072320 FLZ000-080015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138... VALID 072320Z - 080015Z DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THROUGH 00-01Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF PIE TO DAB. AT 2305Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LEWP EXTENDING FROM WRN POLK COUNTY SWWD TO OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WEST OF FMY OR 65 SSW SRQ. A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED BOW STRUCTURES WERE LOCATED WITHIN THIS LINE...1) MOVING ENEWD INTO WRN POLK COUNTY AT 45 KT AND 2) OVER SARASOTA/ MANATEE COUNTIES MOVING ENE AT 40 KT. TAMPA VAD WIND DATA INDICATED 50 KT WSWLY WINDS JUST ABOVE 1 KM IN THE POST-BOW ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT SPEED OF THESE BOW STRUCTURES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS NEAR 1 KM INDICATE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THESE STORMS MOVE ENEWD THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..PETERS.. 04/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27738278 28118240 28578203 29228190 29678080 27077965 25858096 25728193 26348248 27128283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 01:08:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 20:08:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504080107.j38175X0006710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080106 FLZ000-080200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138... VALID 080106Z - 080200Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 138...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 NW FMY TO 25 N MLB. AT 0045Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED BOW SEGMENTS INCLUDING AT LEAST TWO BOWS ALONG THE FL COAST AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS LEWP WITH INDIVIDUAL BOW SEGMENTS TRACKING EWD AT 40-45 KT FROM SRN BREVARD TO GLADES COUNTIES AND EWD TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG STORM CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER LEE COUNTY WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WHILE A SECOND STRONG STORM /75 MILES WEST OF COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY/ WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE COAST AROUND 02Z. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27398183 27938126 28688032 27077965 25858096 25728193 26348248 26558262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 02:04:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 21:04:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504080203.j3823I7I012157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080202 FLZ000-080230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138... VALID 080202Z - 080230Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON REPLACING WW 138 OVER SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ST LUCIE COUNTY SWWD TO LEE COUNTY AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MOVES ESEWD. AIR MASS EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 27598033 26967990 25368005 24708050 24438147 24608193 25448171 26428225 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 03:49:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 22:49:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504080347.j383lmjd017330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080347 FLZ000-080445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139... VALID 080347Z - 080445Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN FL THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ISOLATED WATER SPOUTS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER KEYS THROUGH 05-06Z. KEY WEST RADAR SHOWED TWO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...1) 30 WNW EYW AND 2) 30 WSW EYW WITH BOTH INDICATING A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT NEAR 20 KT. THE SRN SUPERCELL HAS REMAINED THE STRONGEST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...WHILE THE NRN STORM HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...BUT MAY POSE A WATER SPOUT THREAT TO THE LOWER KEYS BY 05-06Z. AT 0330Z...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM MARTIN TO COLLIER COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF AT 100 NW EYW WITH EMBEDDED BOW STRUCTURES CONTINUED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA. INDIVIDUAL BOWS ARE TRACKING AT SPEEDS FROM 30-40 KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN FL AND THE KEYS...WHILE INSTABILITY WAS MARGINAL ACROSS THE REST OF SRN FL. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER WW 139 AND THIS INSTABILITY DISTRIBUTION SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE OVER SWRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 26848110 27788011 26047882 25187994 24448100 24108174 25898298 26118235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 08:28:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 03:28:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504080827.j388RQH6020400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080826 FLZ000-080930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139... VALID 080826Z - 080930Z ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND WW 139 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. AS OF 0810Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TRAILING PORTION OF QUASI-LINEAR MCS ORIENTED WSW-ENE ACROSS FAR SRN FL PENINSULA FROM NEAR MIA TO APPROXIMATELY 60 WSW MIA. THOUGH A FEW BOWING STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM COLD POOL HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS BY 10-15 MILES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MAJORITY OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE COLD POOL...EFFECTIVELY REDUCING DAMAGING WIND THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MCS SHIFTS SWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF S FL AND THE KEYS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND WW 139 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. ..MEAD.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 25898292 27778008 26037891 24208175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 21:53:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 16:53:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504082151.j38Lpqqq001645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082150 CAZ000-082245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082150Z - 082245Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. DEEP WSWLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN ORE/NRN CA COAST WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 500 MB WILL CONTINUE MAINTAIN SSELY BARRIER FLOW AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. 20Z RUC SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOWED MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/KG...BUT MODIFIED FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE VALLEY RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 600-700 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WHILE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR... 39462239 40502273 40842247 40862183 40022139 39282100 38502046 38072050 37772106 37932153 38272177 38732203 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 22:25:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 17:25:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504082224.j38MOOQ5026793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082223 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-090000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SERN CO INTO ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082223Z - 090000Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NNEWD INTO CENTRAL/SERN WY AND ERN CO...IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...HIGH BASED AND MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN DRY 10 HOUR FUELS AND THE EXPECTED STRONG WIND GUSTS. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES NEWD. A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN FURTHER HIGH BASED STORMS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUPPORTING STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE RELATED STORMS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET OVER ERN UT/SRN WY INTO CO WILL ENHANCE THE WIND SPEEDS GIVEN A STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT. ..PETERS.. 04/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW... 42910805 43580770 43720669 43210531 41940445 40000343 38880296 37680272 37450335 37590405 38340419 39370462 41050568 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 19:16:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 14:16:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504161914.j3GJEpgp005297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161913 NMZ000-162145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN...NRN...AND CNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161913Z - 162145Z TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN/NRN AND CNTRL NM THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIMITING OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION...HAIL WILL BE QUITE LIKELY. LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL N-S FRONTAL ZONE...AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN AND SCNTRL NM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. PRESENTLY...WIND DIRECTION IN THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER VEERS FROM SELY TO SWLY AND OVERALL VECTOR SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN POORLY ORGANIZED AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SHEAR...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING...MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY GIVEN HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND DRY SUB CLOUD ENVIRONMENT. ..CARBIN.. 04/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 33290801 33890840 35570864 36060825 36660719 36890598 36750467 35650467 35030460 34590471 33750477 33150504 32640630 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 23:05:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 18:05:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504162303.j3GN3hM6015512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162302 COZ000-NMZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162302Z - 170100Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO. TWO MAIN AREAS FOR A MARGINAL SVR THREAT WILL BE...1) JUST NORTH OF THE RATON RIDGE REGION OF FAR SERN CO...AND 2) JUST NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE/SOUTH DENVER METRO AREA. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A WW AND/OR AN OUTLOOK AMENDMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SFC AND RADAR ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...JUST SOUTH OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HALF HOUR ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LOW OVER WRN ELBERT CO. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT EAST OF THIS STORM...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 750 J/KG. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...AROUND 30 KTS PER RECENT PUEBLO VWP...GIVEN LACK OF WLY FLOW GREATER THAN 20 KTS IN THE 6-8 KM LAYER. THUS...ONLY A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS OR ANY OTHER STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS LOW CENTER. FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LOCATED ON AND JUST NORTH SIDE OF THE RATON RIDGE WILL CONTINUED TO FAVOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A SIMILAR MARGINAL SVR THREAT FOR THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 04/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 39160297 39740394 39720449 39040480 38340462 37650450 37210437 36960416 36910346 36960324 37130286 37870276 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 23:10:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 18:10:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504162308.j3GN8MT8017397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162307 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162307Z - 170100Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS..IN A MESOBETA SCALE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO. 23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MESOLOW OVER PALO ALTO COUNTY...AT INTERSECTION OF FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SUX AREA INTO NERN NEB AND IS MOVING SEWD APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SHARPLY DEFINED SEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN KOSSUTH COUNTY TO JASPER COUNTY...THEN EWD ALONG I-80 TO CEDAR COUNTY. EXPECT NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW SEGMENT N OF DSM TO DRIFT NEWD. LARGEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WOULD BE WITH ANY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED STORM THAT CAN FORM NEAR MESOLOW OR NEARBY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THEN DEVIATE RIGHTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED IN BOUNDARY LAYER. LINE OF CU/TCU IS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ALONG COLD FRONT AND MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO TSTMS...BUT WITH WEAKER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM SWLY SFC FLOW IN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR. OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES ARE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE ERN EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY IS JUXTAPOSED WITH RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW. SLA PROFILER AND CMX VWP EACH APPEAR TO BE SAMPLING THIS ZONE WELL AS OF 22Z...WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN 150-250 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 40-50 KT. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS SWD FROM SFC LOW ACROSS IA. MLCAPES ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG IN AREA OF CLEARING BETWEEN SFC LOW AND SWRN IA ELEVATED SHOWERS...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS. MARGINAL MIDLEVEL FLOWS SUGGEST POOR PRECIP VENTILATION ALOFT AND TRANSITION TO MESSY HP OR BOW STRUCTURE AS A STORM MATURES. ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43369469 43519435 43529392 43259340 42649319 42049329 41869400 41969452 42089550 42429655 42929552 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 18:42:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 13:42:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504171840.j3HIerId007809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171839 NEZ000-SDZ000-172115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL SD...NCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171839Z - 172115Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME FROM NWRN/NCENTRAL SD SWD INTO NCENTRAL NEB. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF LATER TRENDS INDICATE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THREAT. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO FAR WRN SD/NWRN NEB PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ESEWD FROM A SFC LOW OVER SERN MT TO PIERRE TO YANKTON SD. WARM/MOIST AREA BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS ALREADY LED TO OVER 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OBSERVED IN THE AREA. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH 20-25 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW PER REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL SUPPORT 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...IF STORMS DEVELOP. MODIFIED 15Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES /MID 80S/ BEFORE CINH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR WARM FRONT. THE STRENGTH OF THE CURRENT CINH IS ALSO EVIDENT GIVEN LACK OF CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES/DEWPTS...ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY INITIATE IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ISOLATED STORM INITIATION WILL BE WHERE THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION ENHANCES CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION OF THE DRYLINE...THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL SD...TO THE NE OF THE RAP AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42369917 44019943 45610115 45390224 44670261 43490267 42430253 42270098 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 19:28:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 14:28:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504171926.j3HJQaAg030636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171925 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...WRN KS...OK/TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171925Z - 172200Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO AND NERN NM...EWD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE OK AND TX PNHDLS. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR RETURNS AND ANALYSIS DATA ACROSS SERN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LONG-LOOP WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE IS PARTLY COMPOSED OF A RESIDUAL MCV FROM COMPLEX OF STORMS OCCURRING OVER NM/CO YESTERDAY. POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTENING AMONG THE BANDS OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT WERE AIDING IN GRADUAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. TSTM CELLS NOW APPEAR TO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY CO...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. DIURNAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH BACKGROUND ASCENT FROM THE MCV WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW OF 15-20KT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS MARGINAL. SLIGHTLY STRONGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES EXIST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...OVER PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL. BACKGROUND CIRCULATION COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY INCREASES MODESTLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTION SPREADING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/CO WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM UNION COUNTY NM TO BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES IN CO...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37930434 37130450 35990357 35750211 35410073 36539982 37329956 37829954 38349964 39209986 39840075 39910143 39990226 39840323 39290337 38470353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 19:53:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 14:53:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504171951.j3HJpTWf010051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171950 NMZ000-172215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171950Z - 172215Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL AND ERN NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN INITIATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NM WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CB DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SINCE 19Z/1PM MDT. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL AND SCNTRL NM COUPLED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WERE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKLY CAPPED AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. WHILE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS ON SATURDAY...STRONGER WLY FLOW OF 25-30KT WAS SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL AND SCNTRL NM...IN THE BASE OF MCV CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER CO. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED CELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO GUSTY OUTFLOWS. GIVEN DEEP LAYER WLY STEERING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN/SERN PLAINS OF NM THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 36180651 36570569 36710507 36710468 36500424 35970386 35720318 35020314 32950316 32340410 32580507 32660588 32960701 32970749 33430805 33910818 34660800 34950791 35340779 35870711 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 21:43:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 16:43:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504172141.j3HLfouY028749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172140 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-172345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...FAR SWRN/SCENTRAL MN...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172140Z - 172345Z ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR FSD EWD ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW /LESS THAN 20 KTS OBSERVED FROM 4-6 KM ON REGIONAL PROFILERS/...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-7.5 DEG C/KM AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS. DIURNAL DECOUPLING SHOULD AID IN A DIMINISHING ISOLATED SVR THREAT BEYOND 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43709348 43809504 43909644 43629685 43389709 42849685 42739617 43109428 43229357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 23:31:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 18:31:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504172331.j3HNV8pL012655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172328 TXZ000-NMZ000-180130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NM...FAR W TX AND TRANS-PECOS AREA...WRN PORTIONS TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159... VALID 172328Z - 180130Z CONTINUE WW. ISOLATED...APPARENTLY HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL HAS TURNED SHARPLY RIGHTWARD AND IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN EDDY COUNTY ATTM WITH DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS LIKELY. OTHER ACTIVITY -- IN BROKEN BAND FROM NERN SOCORRO TO SRN QUAY COUNTIES...MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS WW 158 INTO WW 159. 1.75 INCH HAIL REPORTED WITHIN PAST HOUR BOTH FROM EDDY COUNTY SUPERCELL AND FROM TSTMS OVER DE BACA COUNTY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM ERN UNION COUNTY NM SSWWD TO NEAR ROW THEN SSEWD TOWARD DAVIS MOUNTAINS. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AHEAD OF DRYLINE -- INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...OUTFLOW-DOMINANT/FORWARD-PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTERS AND BOWS. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ESTIMATED IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 50S F. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD AUGMENT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS TO REACH SFC. PRESSURE FALLS AND RELATED SELY FLOW ACROSS SERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OVER THAT AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGEST BENEATH 35-45 KT MIDLEVEL JET MAX ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WW. RUC HODOGRAPH YIELDS 0-3 KM SRH 250-300 J/KG OVER SERN NM...DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT AS SFC FLOW BECOMES RELATIVELY VEERED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30890267 30890554 34960556 34980256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 02:09:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 21:09:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504180219.j3I2JZ7W023199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180218 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW KS...EXTREME NWRN OK...ERN OK PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE...PART OF EXTREME E-CENTRAL NM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159... VALID 180218Z - 180345Z THAT PORTION OF WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINES...AS OUTLINED BELOW...SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL TSTMS HAVE PASSED. ACTIVITY MAY BE E OF REMAINING PORTIONS WW BEFORE SCHEDULED 4Z EXPIRATION...AT WHICH TIME REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY BE CANCELED. LINE OF NONSEVERE TSTMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN KS...N OF BOW ECHO THAT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS BEAVER COUNTY OK. FARTHER SW...ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS FROM SRN ROBERTS COUNTY TX SWWD TO NEAR CVS...HAS PRODUCED UP TO 2.75 INCH HAIL AROUND AMA. BOW ECHO IN ERN OK PANHANDLE OR A FEW CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN LINE MAY BRIEFLY FLARE TO SEVERE LEVELS...HOWEVER OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...ROOTED NEAR BASE OF 30-35 KT LLJ...SHOULD MAINTAIN GEN TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF SW KS SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND ERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...PRIND ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NECESSARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MEANWHILE...WW CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED TSTM LINES WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED BOTH BY CONVECTION AND BY ONSET OF SFC RADIATIONAL COOLING. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 34730150 34680452 38770333 38770019 38689959 38369926 37919915 37459908 37069923 36669946 36189969 35590010 35030049 34560086 34230131 33900191 33820258 34720262 34710217 34720155 38770018 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 02:30:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 21:30:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504180241.j3I2fJSs001944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180240 TXZ000-NMZ000-180415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NM...FAR W TX/TRANS-PECOS REGION...SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159... VALID 180240Z - 180415Z ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINING IN WW ATTM IS INVOF TX/NM BORDER WNW INK...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ALONG/E OF DRYLINE...OVER ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. PROBABLE HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL THAT HAD MOVED SSEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN EDDY COUNTY MERGED WITH INCREASING/PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION TO ITS S...THEN RE-EMERGED AND IS MOVING SSEWD TOWARD LOVING COUNTY TX. ANOTHER APPARENT HP SUPERCELL HAS EVOLVED OVER S-CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY...S CNM...AND WILL TURN RIGHTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NERN CULBERSON AND NRN REEVES COUNTIES TX. DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MODIFIED VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST STORM-RELATIVE LOW LEVEL FLOWS AS HIGH AS 40-50 KT...GIVEN 25-35 KT SLY LLJ. INCREASING SBCIN WILL RESULT FROM DIABATIC SFC COOLING OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS...RESULTING IN ONGOING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG BECOMING MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. PRIND BULK OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 4Z...BUT MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IF NECESSARY. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30900262 30880553 34930556 34960260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 17:00:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 12:00:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504181710.j3IHAwMr012019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181708 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-181915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/NERN KS INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181708Z - 181915Z SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 1650Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT DEVELOPING NWD INTO ERN NEB...AHEAD OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY SW OF GRI. STRONG INSOLATION WITHIN THIS REGION COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WILL CONCURRENTLY WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF VORTICITY CENTER GENERALLY N OF I-80 EXHIBIT STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WINDS...HOWEVER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS LARGELY MERIDIONAL AND RELATIVELY WEAK. FARTHER S OVER SERN NEB INTO NERN KS...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BASE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KT SPEED MAXIMUM WILL RESULT IN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 19 OR 20Z. ..MEAD.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 40379762 41349787 41949777 42259715 42049615 41219577 40579560 39939554 39669590 39369660 39799760 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 19:00:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 14:00:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504181911.j3IJB6EM012066@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181909 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-182115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX SOUTH PLAINS/SWRN TX AND SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181909Z - 182115Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY 21Z ALONG TWO SEPARATE DRYLINES...ONE OVER ERN NM...AND THE OTHER EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO THE WRN TX SOUTH PLAINS/SWRN TX. ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANNON AFB 88-D SHOWS A DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE OVER ERN NM/FAR WRN TX. THE WRN MOST /PRIMARY/ DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM EXTREME SERN CO...TO JUST EAST OF CLAYTON SWWD TO GUADALUPE COUNTY...THEN SWD TO THE ERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS TO JUST WEST OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS. A SECONDARY DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER FAR SERN CO SWWD TO CVS TO HOB TO THE DAVIS MTNS. DRIER LOW LEVELS HAS LEAD TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE WRN DRYLINE. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SECONDARY /ERN MOST/ DRYLINE WAS MORE UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OBSERVED. RECENT TRENDS IN THE TCU AND WSM PROFILERS SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL /4-5 KM/ 30-35 KT SPEED MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF BOTH DRYLINES...AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE OVER WRN NM COMBINED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TWO DRYLINES...AND WEAKENING CINH SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ONE OR BOTH DRYLINES BETWEEN 20-21Z. RECENT SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS POTENTIAL WITH CU DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH DRYLINES OVER ERN NM AND TOWERING CU OVER DAVIS MTNS. AHEAD OF WRN MOST DRYLINE ACROSS ECENTRAL/SERN NM...HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND MORE LIMITED MLCAPE/HIGHER DCAPE SUGGESTS THAT MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE SVR HAIL THREAT VERY MINIMAL. FARTHER EAST...AHEAD OF THE ERN MOST DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS SWD ITO THE WRN TX SOUTH PLAINS/SWRN TX....GREATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 30590413 32580454 34030427 35430331 36370256 37110200 37680090 37310036 34180089 30440243 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 21:10:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 16:10:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182121.j3ILL3IP003757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182120 MNZ000-NDZ000-182315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182120Z - 182315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY 00Z ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SEWD MOVING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SW-NE OVER THE AREA. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH DUE TO MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. RECENT SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CU HAS FORMED ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF JMS TO WEST OF INL. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S HAS LEAD TO MINIMAL CINH REMAINING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. ELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 750 MB WITH TEMP/DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 35-40 DEG BENEATH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG FAVORING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO MODEST SWLY FLOW AROUND 30 KTS IN THE MID LEVELS BENEATH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL LIMIT SVR HAIL THREAT. DESPITE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL MITIGATE LARGER SCALE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BEYOND DIURNAL COOLING/02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 48989576 48049874 47809946 47339943 47109891 47559537 47799441 48859468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 22:45:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 17:45:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182256.j3IMuBL7004210@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182255 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES/TX SOUTH PLAINS...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 182255Z - 190100Z GIVEN PLACEMENT OF ERN DRYLINE ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF WW 160 TX/NM BORDER...AND POTENTIAL INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS ERN DRYLINE MERGES WITH WRN DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS ECENTRAL NM...ALL AREAS OF WW 160 WILL REMAIN VALID ATTM. CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY WHILE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 160 THROUGH 01Z. SVR HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH LEFT SPLITTING STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE OTHER STRONG STORMS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS OVER FAR SWRN KS. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THEREFORE...THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 160 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. FURTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NRN MX MAY PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN TX/FAR SERN NM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION PRIOR TO 01Z WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN FAR SERN NM SWD TO JUST EAST OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY AN ISOLATED/LIMITED AREA FOR POTENTIAL SVR TSTM INITIATION IS APPARENT AND THUS ANOTHER WW SOUTH OF WW 160 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 37750166 33890313 33000419 31270381 31390270 33810250 33910107 37849944 38150137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 22:46:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 17:46:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182257.j3IMvALV004660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182256 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD...WRN NEB...NERN CO...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182256Z - 190130Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 3Z IN 40-50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 50 SSE GLD...SNY...AIA...PHP. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TO BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ANY GIVEN TSTM MAY INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET...WHEN SFC BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE NEAR AFOREMENTIONED AXIS...AND QUASISTATIONARY NOW THAT HEATING/MIXING HAS PEAKED. DRYLINE MAY RETREAT SLOWLY WWD OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...THEREFORE THREAT ZONE IS DRAWN ON BOTH SIDES OF PRESENT ANALYSIS POSITION. GROWING CB/DEEP TCU EVIDENT AS OF 2230Z ON VIS IMAGERY IN SEVERAL LOCALES ALONG THIS DRYLINE...PARTICULARLY AROUND GLD...SNY...WRN SHERIDAN COUNTY NEB...AND PINE RIDGE RESERVATION S OF SD BADLANDS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR...WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS AND HAIL TO SFC. PROFILER/VWP HODOGRAPHS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS BUT STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES AND SHORT-LIVED MIDLEVEL ROTATION. LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT..AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY IN MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42280296 43190238 43830166 43700103 43250099 42250147 41760160 40930120 39140083 38460152 39250224 41260333 42120306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 22:47:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 17:47:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182257.j3IMvRpv004781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182255 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES/TX SOUTH PLAINS...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 182255Z - 190100Z GIVEN PLACEMENT OF ERN DRYLINE ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF WW 160 TX/NM BORDER...AND POTENTIAL INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS ERN DRYLINE MERGES WITH WRN DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS ECENTRAL NM...ALL AREAS OF WW 160 WILL REMAIN VALID ATTM. CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY WHILE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 160 THROUGH 01Z. SVR HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH LEFT SPLITTING STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE OTHER STRONG STORMS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS OVER FAR SWRN KS. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THEREFORE...THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 160 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. FURTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NRN MX MAY PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN TX/FAR SERN NM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION PRIOR TO 01Z WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN FAR SERN NM SWD TO JUST EAST OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY AN ISOLATED/LIMITED AREA FOR POTENTIAL SVR TSTM INITIATION IS APPARENT AND THUS ANOTHER WW SOUTH OF WW 160 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 37750166 33890313 33000419 31270381 31390270 33810250 33910107 37849944 38150137  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 22:48:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 17:48:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182258.j3IMwmMG005987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182256 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD...WRN NEB...NERN CO...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182256Z - 190130Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 3Z IN 40-50 NM WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 50 SSE GLD...SNY...AIA...PHP. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TO BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ANY GIVEN TSTM MAY INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET...WHEN SFC BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE NEAR AFOREMENTIONED AXIS...AND QUASISTATIONARY NOW THAT HEATING/MIXING HAS PEAKED. DRYLINE MAY RETREAT SLOWLY WWD OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...THEREFORE THREAT ZONE IS DRAWN ON BOTH SIDES OF PRESENT ANALYSIS POSITION. GROWING CB/DEEP TCU EVIDENT AS OF 2230Z ON VIS IMAGERY IN SEVERAL LOCALES ALONG THIS DRYLINE...PARTICULARLY AROUND GLD...SNY...WRN SHERIDAN COUNTY NEB...AND PINE RIDGE RESERVATION S OF SD BADLANDS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR...WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS AND HAIL TO SFC. PROFILER/VWP HODOGRAPHS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS BUT STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES AND SHORT-LIVED MIDLEVEL ROTATION. LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT..AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY IN MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42280296 43190238 43830166 43700103 43250099 42250147 41760160 40930120 39140083 38460152 39250224 41260333 42120306  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 23:17:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 18:17:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182327.j3INRMjZ023019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182326 MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... VALID 182326Z - 190130Z WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/E OF PRIMARY ARC OF CONVECTION...WHICH CONSISTS AT 23Z OF NUMEROUS STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS OVER WRN PORTION WW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PIVOT NEWD AND NWD WHILE ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING/DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG SRN END OF COMPLEX...WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD IN TRAIN ECHO FASHION. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS WILL CAUSE REPEATED OCCURRENCES OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES IN SOME LOCALES FROM FILLMORE/SALINE COUNTIES NEWD TO DODGE COUNTY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS CLAY/WEBSTER COUNTIES...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN/NRN NUCKOLLS COUNTY OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE EACH FAVOR SUPERCELLS NEAR SRN END OF MCS...THEREFORE DAMAGING HAIL POTENTIAL IS GREATEST OVER SRN HALF OF WW. THIS AREA IS SE OF CENTER OF MID/UPPER CIRCULATION WHERE GEOMETRY OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS RESULTS IN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCED BULK SHEARS. THIS AREA IS SAMPLED WELL BY FBY PROFILER...WITH 150-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT NWD PAST OMA-OLU LINE INTO NERN NEB. MCS AND PRECEDING CONVECTION NOW NEAR MO RIVER SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS REMAINDER ERN NEB INTO IA NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHER DEEP TCU EVIDENT FROM OTOE COUNTY SWD INTO NERN KS MAY ALSO FORM DISCRETE STMS...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...OVER EXTREME SERN NEB AND SWRN IA. ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 40029758 43519773 43509528 40029528 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 23:34:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 18:34:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504182344.j3INia4B000902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182343 OKZ000-TXZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN OK...NWRN TX AND THE ERN TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182343Z - 190045Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS/SERN TX PANHANDLE /INSIDE WW 160/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND MAY EFFECT PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN OK/NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NWRN TX THROUGH BEFORE 00-02Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SE OF LBB IN THE NEXT HOUR. THUS ANOTHER SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE ANVILS OF A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SVR STORMS OVER HALE/SWISHER COUNTIES. CURRENT/FCST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SVR THREAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 160 BY 0030Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OUTSIDE OF WW 160 INDICATE MINIMAL SBCINH /LESS THAN 50 J/KG/ AT LEAST TO THE LATITUDE OF GREER COUNTY OK SWD TO KNOX COUNTY TX. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z...BEFORE A GRADUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN INHIBITION ENSUES. CONVECTION OVER THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS /NORTH OF LUBBOCK/ NOW BEING SUPPORTED BY SMALL STRATIFORM PRECIP REGION MAY BECOME MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED IN THE NEXT HOUR LOCALLY ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INCREASING CINH IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ALONG WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT MUCH EAST OF WW 160. ..CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34369927 35209925 35250009 35000055 34450075 33820121 33460134 33090141 32950096 33119997 33689920 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 01:19:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 20:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504190129.j3J1TSjh027249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190127 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-190230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... VALID 190127Z - 190230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...LIKELY IN THE SHAPE OF SLOW MOVING MCS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT. WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY...SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG INCREASING LLJ TONIGHT. THUS...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR REPLACING CURRENT WW /161/. SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BACKBUILDING INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN KS WITH SLOW EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MO RIVER. ..EVANS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 41909658 41819381 39129620 39139890 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 02:00:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 21:00:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504190210.j3J2AdKw016842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190209 TXZ000-OKZ000-190345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE/NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 190209Z - 190345Z SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION OF WW 160 AS MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESE AT AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS NW TX THROUGH CHILDRESS/COTTLE COUNTIES. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL NATURE OF DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THREAT...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR NW/NCNTRL TX. OTHERWISE WW 160 SET TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL EXIST BOTH WITH PROPAGATING MCS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...AS WELL AS TRAILING SEGMENTS ON SW PERIPHERY OF MCS N/NE OF LBB AMIDST INFLUX OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING IN ROUGHLY WEST-ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS FLOYD/MOTLEY/COTTLE/CHILDRESS AS SLY LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON MESOSCALE COLD POOL...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND FURTHER WEST-EAST TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... 33870157 34220150 34680017 34599950 34239933 33689956 33720131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 04:13:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 23:13:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504190423.j3J4Ngnm023791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190423 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190422 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB...SWRN IA...EXTREME NWRN MO...N-CENTRAL/NERN KS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... VALID 190422Z - 190545Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MCS...AND N OF TAIL END OF MCS OVER SERN NEB. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM N OF OMA METRO INTO PORTIONS W-CENTRAL IA...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND MINOR WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. SRN PORTION OF MCS HAS BECOME PRIMARY CONCERN WITH SEVERE TSTMS INVOF KS/NEB BORDER FROM SSE BIE TO NNW CNK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INTENSE LOW LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...GIVEN 50 KT SLY LLJ EVIDENT IN PRE-STORM PROXIMITY DATA FROM FBY PROFILER. EXPECT LLJ TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO SSW...FAVORING BACKBUILDING/TAIL-END CONVECTION. ASSOCIATED WAA AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG PER RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND POTENTIAL FOR MERGING/TRAINING ECHOES IN SUCH ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN HAZARD TOO...WITH LOCALIZED RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ATOP COLD POOL FROM MCS...IN EVEN LOFTIER/ELEVATED WAA REGIME WHERE PARCELS MAY BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO AN LFC. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING INVOF I-80 BETWEEN LNK-YORK...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN. THEREFORE...AREAS BEHIND MCS OVER SERN NEB SHOULD BE CLEARED FROM WW CAUTIOUSLY...IF AT ALL. ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38919606 38919847 41759654 41759401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 06:36:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 01:36:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504190646.j3J6kT2L025193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190645 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN KS/SERN NEB/SWRN IA/NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... VALID 190645Z - 190715Z WW 162 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER IR IMAGERY AND OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES PER REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/NNE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NERN KS/NEB BORDER REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NRN IA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MID MO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS NE TOWARD SRN MN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z TODAY...BUT DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...A NEW WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. ..PETERS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41809656 42169540 42179379 41329353 40279429 39649553 39739795 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 15:39:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 10:39:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504191550.j3JFoErl022426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191548 IAZ000-MOZ000-191645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191548Z - 191645Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1530Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER LUCAS AND MARSHALL COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL/CNTRL IA. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS N-CNTRL IA/S-CNTRL MN. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH INFLOW SOURCE REGION BEING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS ERN IA SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE BASED LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITHIN DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. CHANNEL OF 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF VORTICITY LOBE /PER CURRENT DMX VWP AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40979367 42379322 43139249 43149126 42039073 41169125 40619195 40599298 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 18:54:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 13:54:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504191905.j3JJ56fU021223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191904 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NEB PNHDL/NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191904Z - 192030Z SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS NERN CO/SRN NEB PNHDL INTO SERN WY IS DESTABILIZING AS LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING MORE CELLULAR/CUMULUS IN NATURE. FARTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING INTO TSTMS FROM ABOUT 50 W OF FCL TO JUST NW OF LAR. THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WRAPPING WWD/SWWD AROUND SURFACE LOW /CURRENTLY E OF GLD/ IS MIXING OUT WITH GROWING BOUNDARY-LAYER...AIR MASS IS NONETHELESS DESTABILIZING AS A RESULT OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS...AS WELL AS SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KTS ATOP SURFACE NELY-ELY WINDS...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...WELL-MIXED AND RELATIVELY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ..MEAD.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39530415 39870515 41290564 41820518 41880421 41790346 41360271 40720221 39640286 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 20:47:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 15:47:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504192057.j3JKvNmp008599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192055 TXZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192055Z - 192230Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOCALIZED ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ORIGINATED IN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SWRN TX...WITH LEADING EDGE APPROACHING DRYLINE AND RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE E. SHOULD THIS CONVECTION BECOME ROOTED WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E OF DRYLINE...PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ..MEAD.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29790258 30780292 31470236 31810166 31950085 31469992 30619982 29650014 29250080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 21:57:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 16:57:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504192208.j3JM8Bra007258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192207 TXZ000-OKZ000-192330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W3-CENTRAL/NW TX...EXTREME SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192207Z - 192330Z SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20/00Z WITHIN CORRIDOR LOCATED ALONG AND ABOUT 50 NM E OF SFC DRYLINE...FROM CDS/HOLLIS AREAS SWD TOWARD SJT. DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUPERCELLS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIR MASS HAS LOST ALMOST ALL SBCINH ACROSS THIS REGION...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS CLUMPS OF TCU NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY. DEEPEST CONVECTIVE TOWERS ATTM -- AND MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR FIRST CONVECTIVE INITIATION -- IS OVER PORTIONS KNOX/HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES TX. AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY BUOYANT...WITH MOIST SECTOR SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. AS MIXING WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...DEW POINTS MAY RISE INTO LOWER 60S F AS OBSERVED AOA 50 NM E OF SFC DRYLINE. EXPECT LITTLE MOTION BOTH OF DRYLINE AND OF TSTMS THEMSELVES...THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT IS NARROW IN ZONAL EXTENT. MODIFIED RUC HODOGRAPHS YIELD 0-1 KM AGL SRH 150-175 J/KG...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESSES ARE EVIDENT IN FLOW PROFILES IN 2-4 KM LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32380067 34120042 34950026 34909991 34439929 34059912 33579900 32709913 31979947 31639993 31480024 31490057 31700073 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 22:40:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 17:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504192250.j3JMoXMP005936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192249 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0549 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN KS...NWRN OK AND ERN OK PANHANDLE...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...EXTREME E-CENTRAL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192249Z - 200045Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INVOF DRYLINE...FROM NRN EDGE WW 164 NWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL KS...THEN WWD ACROSS NWRN KS TOWARD SERN EDGE OF WW 163. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CYCLONE OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN CO E PUB. WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY CO INTO W-CENTRAL KS VICINITY SCOTT/LANE COUNTIES...INTERSECTING DRYLINE THERE. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM JUST W CDS NWD ACROSS ERN PANHANDLES AND WRN KS TO ROUGHLY 30 W HLC...THEN CURVING NWWD DIFFUSELY INTO SWRN NEB. WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IS ACTING AS PSEUDO DRYLINE AS WELL...WITH 20 DEG ISODROSOTHERMAL DROP ACROSS IT FROM N TO S. HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM TCU NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT AND W OF DRYLINE...WITH WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE. FARTHER S...DRYLINE IS COINCIDENT WITH CONFLUENCE AXIS IN STREAMLINE ANALYSIS...INDICATING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL EWD MIXING/MOVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR. ACCORDINGLY...FLOW BACKED BETWEEN 21-22Z AT CDS AND HHF STATIONS IN SERN AND NERN TX PANHANDLE...RESPECTIVELY. ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC SFC HEATING...IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING OF CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS INVOF DRYLINE...FROM BEAVER COUNTY OK SWD ALMOST TO I-40. PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT AND MAXIMIZED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN A BELT CLOSE TO I-40...GRADUALLY DECREASING NWD. MLCAPES ARE ESTIMATED 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN 30-50 NM E OF DRYLINE. RELATIVE MIN IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED ALONG DRYLINE SEGMENT OVER KS...HOWEVER ANY TSTMS WHICH DO FORM IN THAT CORRIDOR ALSO MAY ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE. ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 35410045 38270049 38790181 38750293 39460231 39770127 39419980 37539909 34989918 34869964 34830010 34860030 34980046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 23:29:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 18:29:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504192339.j3JNdX8P010168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192338 WIZ000-200115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE/ECNTRL WI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 192338Z - 200115Z THREAT MAY EXIST FOR ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SE/ECNTRL WI WITH DEVELOPING/EWD PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTERS. ON FRINGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/SWLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...TSTM CLUSTERS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL WI INVOF I-90/51 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE ISOLD STRONG WIND GUST THREAT ACROSS SE/ECNTRL WI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WITH 30-35 SFC T-TD SPREADS. ..GUYER.. 04/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX... 44448879 44608766 43458792 42718799 42618941 42998972 43988940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:12:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:12:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200022.j3K0MT1k006772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200021 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NEB...NERN CO...SERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163... VALID 200021Z - 200215Z CONTINUE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL CRITICAL BOUNDARIES...BEGINNING WITH POLAR FRONT FROM S-CENTRAL SD SWWD ACROSS WRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB...TO NEAR SNY...THEN WSWWD ACROSS EXTREME N-CENTRAL CO. THIS FRONT SEPARATES SFC-BASED PARCELS TO ITS S FROM COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS N...AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD...AIDED BY EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST N OF IT OVER NEB AND S OF CYS. DENSE CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- NOW EVIDENT ALONG THAT FRONT BETWEEN CHERRY COUNTY AND SNY...PRODUCED 2.5 INCH HAIL JUST BEFORE 00Z. DAMAGING HAIL/GUST POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM INTERACTIONS AND AMBIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SECOND FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS AS WARM FRONT FROM SFC LOW E OF PUB...NEWD TO NEAR OGA...THEN ENEWD TOWARD OLU. THIS DEMARCATES SOMEWHAT WARMER/MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND HIGHER LCL AIR TO ITS S. PRONOUNCED ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BETWEEN FRONTS HAS INITIATED/SUPPORTED SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN DEN-LIC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOWS PRODUCED BY THAT ACTIVITY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE AIR MASS BEGINS STABILIZING FROM CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC COOLING. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONTS REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BASED ON COMBINATION OF 00Z LBF RAOB...AND 00Z DEN RAOB MODIFIED TO REMOVE SPURIOUS DEW POINT NEAR 800 MB. VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTS IN 300-400 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM AGL LAYER. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FROM SCATTERED TSTMS N OF NRN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL...ACROSS SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE...SUPPORTED BY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 42860212 42879917 39130268 39090554 39680505 40120489 40580493 40810507 41000524 41200546 41500567 41730567 42140548 42610497 42850439 43000398 43030371 42940252 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:29:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:29:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200039.j3K0dVMb018193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200038 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 200038Z - 200245Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL IA REMAINDER OF EVENING. THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT -- WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW. HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 FROM CNTRL NEB INTO WCNTRL IA EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AIRMASS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 00Z OAX RAOB FEATURING 2500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP 7.8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE...IN PRESENCE OF NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ SUGGESTS THREAT OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/SLOW EWD STORM MOTIONS...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS EVENING...AS TSTMS ULTIMATELY CONGEAL WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42799311 42469270 42219242 41309263 41059536 40969746 41019925 42349928 42709623 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:30:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:30:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200041.j3K0fBJ2019158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200040 OKZ000-TXZ000-200145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... VALID 200040Z - 200145Z DRYLINE REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY NEAR CDS...25 W SJT...20 SW 6R6 LINE AND CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR SUSTAINED CB DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL/WIND. TCU AND OCCASIONAL/BRIEF GLACIATIONS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT PAST 1-2 HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN AREA OF WEAKLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STONEWALL/KING/KNOX/FOARD COUNTIES. HOWEVER... PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED NOW THAT SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND RELATED LIFT HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH. WITHOUT DEEP/SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31790091 34830047 34849853 31799903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:31:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:31:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200041.j3K0fhWC020032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200038 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 200038Z - 200245Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL IA REMAINDER OF EVENING. THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT -- WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW. HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 FROM CNTRL NEB INTO WCNTRL IA EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AIRMASS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 00Z OAX RAOB FEATURING 2500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP 7.8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE...IN PRESENCE OF NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ SUGGESTS THREAT OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/SLOW EWD STORM MOTIONS...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS EVENING...AS TSTMS ULTIMATELY CONGEAL WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42799311 42469270 42219242 41309263 41059536 40969746 41019925 42349928 42709623  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:33:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:33:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200043.j3K0hUdI020988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200040 OKZ000-TXZ000-200145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... VALID 200040Z - 200145Z DRYLINE REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY NEAR CDS...25 W SJT...20 SW 6R6 LINE AND CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR SUSTAINED CB DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL/WIND. TCU AND OCCASIONAL/BRIEF GLACIATIONS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT PAST 1-2 HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN AREA OF WEAKLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STONEWALL/KING/KNOX/FOARD COUNTIES. HOWEVER... PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED NOW THAT SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND RELATED LIFT HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH. WITHOUT DEEP/SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31790091 34830047 34849853 31799903  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:41:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:41:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200051.j3K0pniE026859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200050 TXZ000-200145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OF S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165... VALID 200050Z - 200145Z INITIAL SUPERCELL THAT HAD FORMED IN MEX MOUNTAINS SW DRT WAS KILLED BY OUTFLOW FROM SEPARATE LEFT-MOVER TO ITS SE. ISOLATED TSTMS THAT EVOLVED FROM THAT PROCESS ARE CROSSING RIO GRANDE INTO SRN MAVERICK COUNTY...BUT MOVING INTO DIABATICALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SBCAPE IS DECREASING. OTHER CONVECTION THAT HAD FORMED IN SFC MOIST AXIS -- OVER HIGH TERRAIN W OF RIO GRANDE -- APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL. IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...AND WITHOUT DEEP/SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...WW WILL BE CANCELED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27329865 27300027 30150137 30169967 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 03:47:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 22:47:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200357.j3K3vLkk029738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200356 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166... VALID 200356Z - 200530Z CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF MCS OVER W-CENTRAL NEB. 3Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS POLAR FRONT MOVING SWD ABOUT 10-15 KT THROUGH A MML...MHE...ANW LINE. SEPARATE WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ROUGHLY 40 SW SUX...TO NEAR BBW AND 10 S OGA. AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS REMAINS SUITABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. 30-50 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS INDICATED FOR MCS DEPENDING ON MOTION USED. APEX OF BOW ECHO PRODUCED SUBSEVERE 39 KT GUST AT STATION TIF IN THOMAS COUNTY AT 310Z. HOWEVER...STRONGER GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...AND CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGE -- MAY PENETRATE SHALLOW/DIABATICALLY COOLED LAYER NEAR SFC...ESPECIALLY SERN CHERRY...SRN BROWN AND BLAINE COUNTIES. BASE VELOCITY IMAGERY HAS INDICATED REAR-INFLOW JET CONTAINING SWATH OF 50-65 KT WINDS BELOW 5 KFT AGL. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL DECREASES FATHER N...WHERE POLAR FRONT HAS INFUSED CONSIDERABLE STATIC STABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME SWD BACKBUILDING HAS OCCURRED INTO NWRN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL PROPAGATION IN SRN PORTION OF MCS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SLY INFLOW. CLUSTER OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN AND NEAR ERN EDGE OF WW MAY CONTINUE HAIL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER GREATER HAZARD MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. PROPAGATIONAL/ TRANSLATIONAL COMPONENTS OFFSET CONSIDERABLY RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING/MERGING OF TSTMS WITHIN CLUSTER. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ACROSS SRN SD NEAR POLAR FRONT...AND FROM NERN NEB ACROSS IA...HOWEVER ORGANIZED AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL WW ATM. ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40599834 40620133 41260134 41520087 41850055 42150056 42300073 42320110 42490100 42850005 43079975 43339963 43739939 43989883 43979814 43729722 43229668 42899658 42189651 41909707 41739767 41699835 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 06:04:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 01:04:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200615.j3K6FCul020996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200614 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NE...W CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 200614Z - 200815Z AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AS SEVERAL MCS FEATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW BOW ECHO SIGNATURES. WRN BOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS BOUNDARY LEFT BY ERN FEATURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS PIERCE...MADISON AND BOONE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO A HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION AS 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS NWD/NEWD THRU WRN KS INTO S CENTRAL NE...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NE. ANALYSIS OF BOTH THE RUC AND NAM-KF SOUNDINGS SHOW 3-6KM LAYER LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN .95 AND 1.15 INDICATING SMALL HAIL AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41179594 41199664 41249739 41259814 41579837 41899850 42239845 42479828 42649800 42719708 42559626 42059560 41649551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 06:08:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 01:08:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504200619.j3K6IwIa023092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200618 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200618 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NE...W CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 200618Z - 200815Z AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AS SEVERAL MCS FEATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW BOW ECHO SIGNATURES. WRN BOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS BOUNDARY LEFT BY ERN FEATURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS PIERCE...MADISON AND BOONE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO A HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION AS 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS NWD/NEWD THRU WRN KS INTO S CENTRAL NE...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NE. ANALYSIS OF BOTH THE RUC AND NAM-KF SOUNDINGS SHOW 3-6KM LAYER LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN .95 AND 1.15 INDICATING SMALL HAIL AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41179594 41199664 41249739 41259814 41579837 41899850 42239845 42479828 42649800 42719708 42559626 42059560 41649551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 17:11:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 12:11:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504201722.j3KHM3bi001601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201721 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...NRN/CNTRL IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201721Z - 201915Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF NERN IL INTO NWRN OH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED... LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY STRONGLY IMPLIES WHAT LITTLE INHIBITION WAS HOLDING BACK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION IS ALL BUT GONE...PER RECENT RAPID CU FIELD EXPANSION. DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH MODEST DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG SWD-MOVING MODIFIED LAKE BREEZE/COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DARROW.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40968849 41108578 41398320 40818256 40218382 39668903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 18:42:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 13:42:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504201853.j3KIrBhA006728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201852 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201852Z - 202045Z THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL INCREASING ACROSS ERN MO INTO WCNTRL IL. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW. ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SEWD AT AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS ECNTRL MO...ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF QUINCY IL TO NEAR COLUMBIA MO. AHEAD OF THIS MCS...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TEMPS CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH BASED UPON RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. IN SPITE OF RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20 KTS OR LESS/...ORGANIZATION OF MCS AND MODEST SWLY INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PROPAGATION THROUGH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40479135 40639036 39998957 38189001 37169141 37559310 38649320 39579240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 18:56:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 13:56:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504201906.j3KJ6TKT017457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201905 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201905Z - 202030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN OH AND NWRN PA... LEADING EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISPLACED INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF PA...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN OH INTO NWRN PA. IN THE LAST HOUR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER LAKE ERIE AND WILL SOON MOVE ONSHORE INTO THIS ZONE OF INSTABILITY WHERE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..DARROW.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41498226 42158018 41527949 40598043 40188209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 20:10:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 15:10:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202020.j3KKKi3W014211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202019 PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND TO NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167...168... VALID 202019Z - 202145Z ...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 167/168... A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED FROM CNTRL PORTIONS OF IND...EWD INTO NERN OH JUST AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 167...WHILE A FASTER SEWD MOVEMENT IS OBSERVED INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 168. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL ENABLE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF EACH WATCH. DIURNAL COOLING LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD SUPPRESS SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF CURRENT WATCHES. ..DARROW.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 40838739 40978426 41348216 41738065 41528021 40848165 40398465 40348714 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 20:18:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 15:18:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202029.j3KKTCPt021087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202028 OKZ000-TXZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202028Z - 202230Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21Z-23Z ACROSS NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...WITH CONDITIONAL/PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OVER WEST TX AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH CORRESPONDING ACCAS OVERSPREADING DEVELOPING/DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD. 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CINH HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY INVOF A CHILDRESS-ABILINE CORRIDOR...AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER EXTENT NWD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR GAGE OK. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THIS REGION...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 2500-3500 J/KG 100 MB MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS...MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR -- 25-30 KTS BASED ON 18Z AMA RAOB AND 88D VADS -- SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO DRYLINE/OCCUR EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34189875 32809860 32450082 33660143 34750123 36610010 36869892 34579879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 20:21:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 15:21:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202032.j3KKW60R023285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202019 PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND TO NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167...168... VALID 202019Z - 202145Z ...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 167/168... A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED FROM CNTRL PORTIONS OF IND...EWD INTO NERN OH JUST AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 167...WHILE A FASTER SEWD MOVEMENT IS OBSERVED INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 168. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL ENABLE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF EACH WATCH. DIURNAL COOLING LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD SUPPRESS SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF CURRENT WATCHES. ..DARROW.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 40838739 40978426 41348216 41738065 41528021 40848165 40398465 40348714  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 20:30:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 15:30:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202040.j3KKedrg029882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202028 OKZ000-TXZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202028Z - 202230Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21Z-23Z ACROSS NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...WITH CONDITIONAL/PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OVER WEST TX AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH CORRESPONDING ACCAS OVERSPREADING DEVELOPING/DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD. 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CINH HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY INVOF A CHILDRESS-ABILINE CORRIDOR...AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER EXTENT NWD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR GAGE OK. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE IN THIS REGION...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 2500-3500 J/KG 100 MB MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS...MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR -- 25-30 KTS BASED ON 18Z AMA RAOB AND 88D VADS -- SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO DRYLINE/OCCUR EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34189875 32809860 32450082 33660143 34750123 36610010 36869892 34579879  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 21:58:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 16:58:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202208.j3KM8jQ5027146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202207 ILZ000-MOZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202207Z - 210000Z ESTABLISHED MCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD ACROSS SE MO AND FAR SRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SHORT TERM. WW NOT EXPECTED GIVEN LIMITED TEMPORAL/MARGINAL NATURE. MCS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL CURRENTLY ALONG/JUST SE OF I-44 IN SE MO...WITH APEX MOVING SEWD AROUND 30-35 KTS. COLD POOL AMIDST SWLY LOW LEVEL FEED /PER CONWAY AND BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILERS/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OF 1000-1500 J/KG DOWNSTREAM OF MCS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SE PROPAGATION AND SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER MCS EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MO BOOTHEEL/EXTREME SRN IL OWING TO LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND SFC RIDGING. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 39029016 38388867 37078950 36969104 37169254 37899265 38099107 38469049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 22:28:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 17:28:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202238.j3KMcfsA012656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202237 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND AND NRN/CNTRL OH INTO WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167...168... VALID 202237Z - 210000Z ISOLD SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS MUCH OF WW 167/WW 168 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING ESE ACROSS NRN IND/NRN AND CNTRL OH/WRN PA. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...INDICATIONS ARE THAT WWS 167/168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATIONS. AIRMASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IND INTO CNTRL OH ACROSS WW 167...WITH ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 750-1000 J/KG AMIDST ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA IN WW 168...ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OWING TO LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...WITH TSTMS ALREADY EXHIBITING THIS TREND. OVERALL EXPECTED DIMINISHING INSTABILITY/INTENSITY TREND SUGGESTS WWS 167/168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. ..GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40868776 40958586 41068343 41328217 41657911 40687894 39958283 39828769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 23:13:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 18:13:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202324.j3KNO7XK005035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202323 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...EXTREME SERN WY AND NEB PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202323Z - 210100Z TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND AND MOVE NEWD THROUGH NERN CO...EXTREME SERN WY AND THE NEB PNHDL THIS EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS THE STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. ATTM...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE APPARENT MARGINALITY OF INSTABILITY. BUT...IF STORMS INDEED BECOME STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER LOW WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED VCNTY KDEN SINCE 2300Z. LATEST ETA AND WRF SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE NEB PNHDL THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE STORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL...DESPITE WEAK MODELED AND OBSERVED INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39320473 40000476 41070514 42250409 42870327 42750251 41620212 40360223 39530283 39500325 39250429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 23:47:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 18:47:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504202358.j3KNw73t024463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202357 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL...NWRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN/SCNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169... VALID 202357Z - 210130Z SVR TSTM WATCH 169 CONTINUES THROUGH 04Z WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. LOW-AMPLITUDE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE PROVIDED SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO AID IN TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPROCK OF THE TX PNHDL NWD INTO SWRN KS. VWP/PROFILERS EXHIBIT SOMEWHAT WEAK 0-6KM PROFILES /LESS THAN 25 KTS/...BUT HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG AIDING IN ANVIL LEVEL VENTING. MOREOVER...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RECENT BACKING OF THE NEAR GROUND FLOW HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST SUPERCELL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT 25W OF KCDS...WITH THE RIGHT MOVING MEMBER REGENERATING OVER NEARLY THE SAME AREA AND LEFT-MOVING MEMBERS MOVING NWD INTO THE NERN TX PNHDL. DOWNSTREAM...ANVILS HAVE PROBABLY ALTERED THE CINH BY COOLING THE TOP OF THE CAPPING LAYER SUFFICIENTLY FOR RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO SWRN OK. FARTHER N...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE LEFT-RIGHT MOVING MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER SWRN KS. PRIND THAT THE DRYLINE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO OSCILLATE BACK WWD...AIDED BY ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STORMS OVER SWRN OK WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO WCNTRL OK. BUT...THE INFLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE...AT LEAST FOR STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE WW. FARTHER N...AXIS OF MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXTENDS NWD INTO SCNTRL KS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS MAY HAVE A LONGER LIFE FROM NWRN OK INTO SCNTRL/SWRN KS THIS EVENING. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE 1/ LOCAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOISTENED/COOLED /IE LOWER LCLS/ AND 2/ BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. ..RACY.. 04/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33450133 37960016 37919791 33539920 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 23:54:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 18:54:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210004.j3L04MYv027340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210003 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE IA INTO NW/WCNTRL IL AND FAR NE MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210003Z - 210130Z THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SE IA INTO PORTIONS OF NW/WCNTRL IL AND PERHAPS FAR NE MO. WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED TEMPORAL/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT. TSTMS /CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SE IA/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW IL AND PERHAPS FAR NE MO OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INVOF REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON NRN PERIPHERY OF BUBBLE HIGH/COLD POOL CENTERED ACROSS NE/ECNTRL MO. IN SPITE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /20-30 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR/...AREA REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITHIN THIS RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED AIRMASS OF SE IA AND WCNTRL/NW IL...WITH AVAILABLE MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG PER AUGMENTED 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN... 41829049 41028916 39988943 39819031 40249170 41029177 41439144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 00:16:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 19:16:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210026.j3L0Qc5j006237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210025 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN CO...SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210025Z - 210200Z A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF EXTREME NERN CO...SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS. VSBL IMAGERY AND COORDINATION WITH WFO GLD SUGGESTS THAT THE CU FIELD VCNTY KGLD HAS BECOME CONGESTED /IE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED/ VCNTY WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER TSTMS WILL INITIATE IN THIS AREA OR EVOLVE/DEVELOP EWD FROM UPSTREAM CO ACTIVITY. TO FURTHER ADD UNCERTAINTY...LATEST SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS TAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL ROCKIES LOW NEWD INTO NEB...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ ACROSS NCNTRL KS LATER THIS EVENING. IF STORMS INDEED FORM OR DEVELOP EWD...VERTICAL SHEAR AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS OVER NWRN KS AND THE PROGRESS OF THE UPSTREAM CO ACTIVITY. IF IT APPEARS THAT A ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EVOLVING...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 39810371 40550244 40590101 40619986 39669949 38780066 38640318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 01:35:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 20:35:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210146.j3L1k7rT013119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210145 OKZ000-TXZ000-210315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210145Z - 210315Z THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY THAT THE TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS WRN OK MAY REMAIN INTACT AND POSE A LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS CNTRL OK/NWRN TX BY 03Z. IF STORMS DO NOT WEAKEN SOON...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A SMALL PART OF CNTRL OK/NWRN TX. TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED/EVOLVED OFF THE DRYLINE EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN OK. SINCE 0100Z... TSTMS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEGINNING TO BE REPORTED. INFLOW TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN INGESTING PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NERN TX/ERN OK. 00Z OUN SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED INCREASING CINH VALUES THAT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TSTMS. ALSO...STORMS WILL BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE AXIS OF THE LLJ IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT DEVELOPS FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO SWRN KS. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT STORMS ARE FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AND IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE SEVERE THREATS TO DIMINISH. WILL MONITOR PROGRESS OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CURRENT WW. IF THEY SHOW NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING...ANOTHER SMALL WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK/NWRN TX. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 33619878 36789799 36349710 35369690 34529730 34009782 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 02:20:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 21:20:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210231.j3L2V1hO002032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210229 KSZ000-NEZ000-210330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN KS AND EXTREME SCNTRL/SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210229Z - 210330Z WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. LEFT MOVING MEMBERS OF A SCNTRL KS SUPERCELL SPLIT ARE RAPIDLY TRANSLATING NWD INTO NCNTRL KS THIS EVENING. OTHER CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM VCNTY KCNK AND KTOP. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ALONG/NORTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS NERN KS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALONG NOSE OF H85 JET. 00Z TOP SOUNDING WAS QUITE UNSTABLE AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 40209911 40409758 40259591 39079534 38809618 38829790 39259926 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 02:41:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 21:41:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210252.j3L2qCUh013659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210251 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCNTRL KS...WRN OK AND FAR NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169... VALID 210251Z - 210415Z VALID PORTIONS OF WS #169 WILL EXPIRE AT 04Z. ADDITIONAL WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM. PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD LLJ IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL NWD INTO CNTRL KS. TSTM CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVED OVER SWRN KS...WRN OK AND NWRN TX APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND AWAY FROM THE LLJ CORE. TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...PARTICULARLY FROM SWRN-SCNTRL OK/NWRN TX AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER NEAR/S OF KICT. THESE TSTM CLUSTERS ARE STILL ORGANIZED AND IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE THEY DIMINISH. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS ACROSS SCNTRL KS...CNTRL OK SWD INTO NWRN TX. OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTRL KS VCNTY A BAROCLINIC ZONE. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 33480012 34610006 35589975 36409987 37130051 38020017 37979793 33439920 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 04:38:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 23:38:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210448.j3L4msZt008923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210447 COZ000-210545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170... VALID 210447Z - 210545Z VALID PORTIONS OF WS #170 CONTINUES IN EXTREME NERN CO WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL. SEVERE RISKS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WS #172 ACROSS SWRN NEB/NWRN KS BY 06Z. THUS WS #170 COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD ACROSS ERN CO WITH STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS PHILLIPS...YUMA AND SERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE WW BY 06Z. THE REMAINDER OF NERN CO IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING... LESSENING THE SEVERE RISKS. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... 39610386 40080326 40910259 40910220 39710225 39450354 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 04:41:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 23:41:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210452.j3L4qc4j010903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210450 KSZ000-210615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171... VALID 210450Z - 210615Z TSTMS HAVE FINALLY SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND NUMBER ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN KS WITHIN WS #171. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. SCNTRL KS/OK MCS/S HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH...WITH THE LLJ BEGINNING TO INCREASE NOW ACROSS ALL OF OK AND SCNTRL KS. NOSE OF THE LLJ WAS BLOWING PERPENDICULAR TO A E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS A RESULT...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE IN THE ENHANCED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. 00Z TOP SOUNDING EXHIBITED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE H85-H7 LAYER...THOUGH THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS WEAK. STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...BUT ANY SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAK KINEMATIC PROFILES. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS AND TRAIN ESEWD INTO NERN KS. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39829937 39879549 38979546 38919935 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 05:39:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 00:39:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210549.j3L5nfLx006569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210548 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CENTRAL NEB...EXTREME NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...172... VALID 210548Z - 210645Z WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY REPLACING WW 170 AND WW 172 SEVERAL STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIGNED FROM SWRN GARDEN CNTY NEB SWD THRU CHASE COUNTY TO THE YUMA COUNTY CO/CHEYENNE COUNTY KS LINE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING ENHANCING UVVS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KT EXTENDS FROM WRN OK NWD INTO SWRN NEB UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET WITH STRONG MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS RAPIDLY AND NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW IS OVER EAST CENTRAL CO WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD AS THE TROUGH MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA. ALREADY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU... 39039991 38930108 39110188 40200217 41290211 42600226 42990153 42969911 41869875 40529881 39529895 39189927 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 08:24:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 03:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504210835.j3L8ZC9A017556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210834 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-211030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NEB INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173...174... VALID 210834Z - 211030Z TWO MODES OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS WRN NEB...AND LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVES NWD THRU SERN NEB. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT MERGER OF THESE TWO MODES WILL OCCUR OVER SRN CUSTER COUNTY NEB AS BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN LINCOLN COUNTY...AND LEFT MOVER HEADS INTO CUSTER COUNTY. ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN NEB IS ALONG WARM FRONT IN THE LOW LEVELS BEING PUSHED NWD/NEWD BY MID LEVEL WARMING/CAPPING INVERSION. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE AS BOWING LINE SEGMENT MERGES OVER CHERRY WITH THE WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION IT WILL TURN EWD/ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. RUC PFC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL PRESENT WITH VALUES 7.5 TO 8C/KM INDICATING THE CONTINUED HAIL THREAT. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 41739984 41879839 41729642 41259472 40379363 39669408 39659492 40099714 40029926 40150016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 16:03:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 11:03:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211613.j3LGDudk004136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211613 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211613Z - 211815Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ASCENT REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX IS TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING...PER ONGOING BAND OF GRADUALLY EXPANDING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM KEARNEY COUNTY TO CHERRY COUNTY IN NEB. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS NRN KS WILL AID NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT INTO EXTREME SERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE WEAK INHIBITION IS ALREADY NOTED BY LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA. IT APPEARS NEAR SFC BASED STORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN MOVE EWD ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT. SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED ACROSS NERN KS BY 21Z BEFORE SPREADING INTO NWRN MO. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THIS REGION FAVORING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39989827 40969809 41199636 39249457 39139627 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 17:06:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 12:06:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211716.j3LHGhGk020138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211715 MOZ000-211915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211715Z - 211915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... BUOYANCY IS INCREASING ALONG AND JUST SW OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NEAR STL...NWWD ACROSS CNTRL MO TO NORTH OF MCI. SBCAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A GRADUAL THICKENING OF CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WIND SHIFT. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS NOT THAT STRONG...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF IT CAN DEVELOP AS EXPECTED. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39479304 38489032 37569087 38669351 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 18:04:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 13:04:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211814.j3LIErxC029704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211813 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SRN AL AND ERN MS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 211813Z - 212015Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING/INCREASING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN AL...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO ERN MS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO FEATURE WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND/OR MCV MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND SWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN AL. AMBIENT/DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE -- OWING TO AMPLE INSOLATION AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SFC TEMPS. IN SPITE OF THE INSTABILITY...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD. ALTHOUGH EPISODIC PULSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LIMITED ORGANIZATION/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... 33508562 32168487 31568543 31538709 31618949 33378945 33848852 33808629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 18:13:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 13:13:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211823.j3LINtRY004205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211823 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...NWRN AR...NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211823Z - 211930Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL MO...NWRN AR...NERN OK... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWERS-ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SWRN MO/NWRN AR. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT VEERING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ON 18Z SGF SOUNDING DOES SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO ADDRESS THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 35719490 38599449 38399224 36229236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 18:37:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 13:37:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211847.j3LIlD0r021174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211846 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV AND CNTRL/SRN VA INTO NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211846Z - 212045Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WV AND CNTRL/SRN VA INTO NRN NC. WW NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. STORM CLUSTER ONGOING ACROSS ERN KY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ESE ACROSS NRN KY. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EWD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SRN WV INTO CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING VA...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OWING TO PLENTIFUL INSOLATION. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH REMAINING. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...REGION DOES REMAIN SOUTH OF RELATIVELY STRONGER BELT OF MID LEVEL FLOW /REF LWX 88D VAD AND REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/...AS 20-25 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 37717741 37037690 36207747 35968008 35938099 36618246 37638255 38328209 37937794 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 18:39:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 13:39:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504211849.j3LInoQP022861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211849 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211848 KSZ000-NEZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 175... VALID 211848Z - 212015Z ...MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS... A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN NEB...INTO PORTIONS OF NERN KS. LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT WRN PORTIONS OF WW AND WILL SOON AID MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN KS...NE OF MHK...WHILE INTENSIFYING RADAR ECHOES ARE NOTED INTO SCNTRL NEB...AS FAR SOUTH AS THAYER COUNTY. WITH TIME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE ENHANCING THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39239683 40569803 41989986 42259908 39509523 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 19:56:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 14:56:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212006.j3LK6S3v013763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212005 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 175...177... VALID 212005Z - 212130Z ...TORNADO WATCH 175 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED EARLY TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NERN KS/NWRN MO... BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY...AND EQUALLY IMPORTANT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IS OCCURRING ACROSS NERN KS INTO NWRN MO ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS WELL DEFINED AND CURRENTLY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD INTO THIS REGION AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS INTO THE MO VALLEY. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS INCREASING SHEAR VENTS MATURING UPDRAFTS. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REPLACED EARLY. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 38099537 39419638 41609788 41469618 38939272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 20:19:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 15:19:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212029.j3LKTMQY029144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212028 ILZ000-MOZ000-212200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176...177... VALID 212028Z - 212200Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT TOWARD THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA... WELL DEFINED MVC FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS SERN IA...WITH A TRAILING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NRN PORTIONS OF WW176. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS ELEVATED AND WELL NORTH OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHICH APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE INDEED FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER COOPER COUNTY MO AND WILL SOON SPREAD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW176. WITH TIME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT. ..DARROW.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38369269 39999223 40149092 39239086 38048945 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 20:55:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 15:55:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212105.j3LL5Q4a020917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212104 TXZ000-OKZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212104Z - 212300Z ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/CNTRL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS...A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CU FIELD INVOF DRYLINE...FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER AROUND CLAY/MONTAGUE COUNTIES...SWD TO JUST WEST OF MINERAL WELLS...ACROSS I-20 EAST OF ABILENE INTO CALLAHAN COUNTY AND SWD TO SAN ANGELO. IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN CU FIELD...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CINH CONTINUES TO ERODE...WITH 100 MB MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE INVOF I-20 EAST OF ABILENE...WHERE WEAKEST CINH EXISTS WITH SUFFICIENT MASS CONVERGENCE...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BOTH NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL...WITH 25-30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. RELATIVELY LONGER SUSTAINED SUPERCELL MODE MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN TX WHERE RELATIVELY BETTER SHEAR EXISTS PER 18Z DFW RAOB. LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD. GIVEN NON-DESCRIPT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSELY TIED TO DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL TX. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 33919803 33889735 33169663 32329676 31629794 30699973 31270085 32889853 33669808 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 21:41:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 16:41:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212151.j3LLpvYJ018826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212151 MOZ000-KSZ000-212245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KS AND EXTREME NWRN MO INCLUDING AREAS BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND ST. JOSEPH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178... VALID 212151Z - 212245Z A POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELL WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS ATCHISON COUNTY KS AND INTO AREAS BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND ST. JOSEPH MO THROUGH 00Z. SRN SUPERCELL WITHIN AN ARC OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WAS MOVING ACROSS ATCHISON COUNTY KS AT 2145Z...HAVING MADE A DEVIANT RIGHT TURN SINCE 21Z. NEARBY LTH PROFILER SHOWED AROUND 142 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH FOR THIS SUPERCELLS MOTION. GIVEN THAT THE WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NRN SUBURBS OF KANSAS CITY ESEWD INTO CNTRL MO...THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE INGESTING PARCELS IN A RESERVOIR OF ENHANCED HELICITY. LCLS ARE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT WITH EXPANDING ANVILS DOWNSTREAM... BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL AND THE CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS SUCH...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INCREASING IN AREAS BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND KANSAS CITY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SWRN BUCHANAN COUNTY MO WITHIN THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE SUPERCELL. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... 39689560 39809492 39669417 39349410 39129437 39279538 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:04:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:04:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212214.j3LMEqS7000779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212214 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212214Z - 220015Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN AR...A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATURE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTS CU FIELD MAY BE CHANGING CHARACTER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER PAST HALF HOUR. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 18Z OUN RAOB MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT ERK OK CONDITIONS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH REMAINS...WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE HWY 75/INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE CORRIDOR FROM BVO TO TUL TO MLC. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /HASKELL PROFILER/ SUGGESTS SUPERCELL MODE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY HAZARDS LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH WIND THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING THROUGH THE EVENING FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR. SWLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW/WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR SUGGESTS TORNADO THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 35189692 36209651 36919597 36729457 36439359 35229301 34249288 33939428 34009577 34139747 35039695 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:12:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:12:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212223.j3LMN2Js005675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212222 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...EXTREME NERN AR...FAR S IL...WRN KY AND NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212222Z - 212315Z A WW WBIS SHORTLY AS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS SERN MO/NCNTRL AR WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING VCNTY WARM FRONT/OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED NW-SE ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN KY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAK SIDE...LESS THAN 25 KTS...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. MOREOVER...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20F MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. AS SUCH...A WW WBIS SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37599110 37758887 37798787 37208780 36128902 36078956 35989073 35979159 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:13:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:13:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212223.j3LMNZIc006239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212214 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212214Z - 220015Z CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SCNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN AR...A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATURE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTS CU FIELD MAY BE CHANGING CHARACTER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER PAST HALF HOUR. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 18Z OUN RAOB MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT ERK OK CONDITIONS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH REMAINS...WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE HWY 75/INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE CORRIDOR FROM BVO TO TUL TO MLC. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /HASKELL PROFILER/ SUGGESTS SUPERCELL MODE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY HAZARDS LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH WIND THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING THROUGH THE EVENING FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR. SWLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW/WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR SUGGESTS TORNADO THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL. ..GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 35189692 36209651 36919597 36729457 36439359 35229301 34249288 33939428 34009577 34139747 35039695  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:19:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:19:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212229.j3LMTl7K009228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212222 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...EXTREME NERN AR...FAR S IL...WRN KY AND NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212222Z - 212315Z A WW WBIS SHORTLY AS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS SERN MO/NCNTRL AR WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING VCNTY WARM FRONT/OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED NW-SE ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN KY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAK SIDE...LESS THAN 25 KTS...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. MOREOVER...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20F MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. AS SUCH...A WW WBIS SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 37599110 37758887 37798787 37208780 36128902 36078956 35989073 35979159  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 22:43:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 17:43:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212253.j3LMrNsr022706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212252 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...EXTREME SWRN IA...NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 176...178... VALID 212252Z - 212345Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH 176 EXPIRES AT 00Z AND TORNADO WATCH 178 EXPIRES AT 04Z. CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE SEVERE THREATS WILL NECESSITATE A REORGANIZATION OF WATCHES BY 00Z. STRONGEST TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KANSAS CITY AREA EWD ACROSS NRN MO TO NEAR KSTL AND WCNTRL IL. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA. TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION OF ENHANCED SRH. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS WCNTRL-NCNTRL MO WHERE THE NRN EDGE OF HOTTEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXISTS. BUT...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT FARTHER EAST. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR MORE MCS/S SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED LATER THIS EVENING AND TRACK ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND INTO THE LOWER OH/MID-MS VLY. WHEN CELLS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT THAN TORNADOES...ALONG WITH RISKS OF HAIL. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38188955 38089123 38669338 38349458 39419597 41179688 41369550 40459447 39789271 39469075 39028965 38478944 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 23:42:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 18:42:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504212352.j3LNqKin019452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212351 MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-220115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...EXTREME SWRN IA...NERN KS AND NWRN/WCNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178... VALID 212351Z - 220115Z SUPERCELL THAT TRACKED ACROSS FAR NRN SUBURBS OF KANSAS CITY EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS IT MOVES THROUGH RAY COUNTY MO. OTHER STORMS HAVE FORMED DOWNSTREAM VCNTY THE WARM FRONT TO NEAR KCOU...SO THE SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS RAIN-COOLED INFLOW FARTHER EAST. TSTMS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM OLATHE SWD IN WT 178 ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE MO BORDER. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW WEDGE OF AIR THAT HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED BY OUTFLOWS. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A TORNADO THREAT AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY...BUT MORE LIKELY DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THREATS. ELSEWHERE...DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS ADVECTING ENEWD INTO THE MO RVR VLY FROM NERN KS INTO SERN NEB...WITH A FEW TSTMS INITIATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS...AFTER INITIATION...APPEAR TO MOVE NEWD ATOP COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SWRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE. ..RACY.. 04/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39059589 40259628 41369683 41379525 40629499 40139415 38749329 38389311 38309535 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 00:38:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 19:38:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220049.j3M0n8O9012876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220047 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181... VALID 220047Z - 220215Z SGF 00Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL MO REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EARLIER TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE-WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION CONTINUE ALONG THE MO/KS LINE...WITH A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER CRAWFORD COUNTY KS. RUC FORECASTS THE SWLY LLJ TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL MO. GIVEN INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO EXPAND EWD THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WIND/HAIL WILL REMAIN THREATS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...TSA...ICT... 36339564 37419484 37959467 38159286 38159147 36689146 36589353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 00:50:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 19:50:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220100.j3M10Uc9017860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220059 TXZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... VALID 220059Z - 220230Z WW 179 CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL/NORTH TX. TSTMS REMAIN PERIODICALLY SEVERE ALONG A NEAR ABILENE-SAN ANGELO AXIS INVOF DRYLINE /IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT OVERTAKING NORTH TX/. CONTINUAL THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACROSS CNTRL TX...GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND A GRADUAL SEWD PROPAGATION OFF THE DRYLINE...AMIDST WEAK SELY INFLOW AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS SEEN IN 00Z DRT RAOB. FURTHER NORTH...TSTMS CURRENTLY WANING INVOF MINERAL WELLS. THIS IS LIKELY ARTIFACT OF CINH/850 WARM LAYER SEEN IN 00Z DFW RAOB..SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TX MAY BE DOUBTFUL. ..GUYER.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30420137 31070114 33329828 33529684 32509743 31439866 30639939 30210050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 00:54:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 19:54:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220104.j3M14dkR019344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220103 ILZ000-MOZ000-220230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL MO AND SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183... VALID 220103Z - 220230Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A FRONT FROM SRN IL WWD TO NEAR FARMINGTON THEN NWWD TO NEAR SEDALIA. A DEVELOPING COLD POOL WAS GAINING STRENGTH OVER WCNTRL MO EAST OF KANSAS CITY. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WS 183. NORTH/EAST OF THE FRONT... TSTMS HAVE MAINLY BEEN PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE SITUATION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE DEVELOPING COLD POOL HAS AIDED IN TSTMS BECOMING MORE LINEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR A BOW ECHO MAY BE EVOLVING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL MO. NRN PART OF THIS BAND OF TSTMS MAY CLIP THE WRN SIDES OF WS 183 BETWEEN 02-04Z. THUS...WIND DAMAGE MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38499211 39189286 39589289 39649082 39259032 39168932 38638872 38058812 37888939 38039133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 01:09:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 20:09:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220119.j3M1JrFC025763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220119 ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...FAR W KY...EXTREME NWRN TN...EXTREME NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180... VALID 220119Z - 220245Z THOUGH TSTMS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THUS FAR THIS EVENING... THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 03Z...THUS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE WS 180. BLOOMFIELD PROFILER DEPICTS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS. COMPENSATING FOR THE WEAK SHEAR...STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS...THOUGH UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NWD INTO SRN IL WWD TO FARMINGTON MO THEN NWWD TO SEDALIA. WARM SECTOR WAS CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND SEEMS PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP. UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BOW ECHO MAY BE EVOLVING EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY TRACK/DEVELOP ESEWD INTO CNTRL MO AND THEN EVENTUALLY SERN MO LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE SWLY LLJ BEGINS TO ACCELERATE. GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPSTREAM LINEAR BAND OF STORMS BEGINS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE TOWARD THE REGION. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX... 36009121 37599085 37618940 37848821 36668869 35958927 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 02:14:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 21:14:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220224.j3M2OqQC021973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220223 ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-220400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NWRN/CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220223Z - 220400Z BROAD WSWLY H85-H7 FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED UNSTABLE PARCELS EWD TO OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED N-S ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF AL. AS A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED. THOUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK...PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTMS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS MIDDLE TN...ESPECIALLY AS THE N-S ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS LOCATED ALONG THE MS RVR MOVES EWD. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD WIND DAMAGE. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM...UNLESS AN UPSWING IN TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER OCCURS. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 32418785 35368817 36528852 36528682 36258608 34758617 32828661 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 02:41:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 21:41:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220251.j3M2pbEK001340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220250 MOZ000-IAZ000-220345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0950 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/WCNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178... VALID 220250Z - 220345Z VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 178 ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NWRN MO IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 04Z AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. PRIMARY LINEAR BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FROM NCNTRL TO SWRN MO LATE THIS EVENING...OR JUST EAST OF THE VALID PORTIONS OF WT 178. OTHER TSTMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN MO...BUT EARLIER TSTMS HAVE PROBABLY EXHAUSTED SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. MOREOVER...THE LLJ IS AIMED MORE INTO THE TSTMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... 38409439 41219474 38869301 38399370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 03:06:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 22:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220316.j3M3GoJs013078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220316 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182... VALID 220316Z - 220515Z ...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO NRN/CNTRL AR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE FROM NOWATA/HASKELL/ADA WITH A BROKEN LINE OF CELLULAR STORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS LINE. STORM NOW ENTERING ADAIR COUNTY REMAINS DANGEROUS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS AND ANOTHER CELL NOW OVER HUGHES COUNTY IS ALSO RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. VAD WIND DATA FROM FORT SMITH AR SUGGESTS A FAVORABLY VEERING PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVEN TORNADOES WITH NEARLY 30 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR. WIND FIELDS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN MO ARE EVEN STRONGER. ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS MO OVERNIGHT...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ERN OK/OZARKS. ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS EXCEPT THE OPERATIONAL ETA /NAM/ FORECAST A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SE OK/AR TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ARE MAINLY NW/SE...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT STORMS NOW OVER SW MO MAY TURN MORE SE WITH TIME AFFECTING NRN AND CNTRL SECTIONS OF AR. ..TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 34669226 34719648 36509569 36509125 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 03:16:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 22:16:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220326.j3M3QPmi016725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220325 MOZ000-ILZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220325Z - 220430Z THIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION CONCERNS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 180...TORNADO WATCH 181 AND SEVERE TSTM WATCH 183. TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A LINE FROM NERN MO TO THE OZARKS LATE THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE IS A NARROW WEDGE OF TRUE WARM SECTOR OVER SCNTRL MO FROM THE KUNO AREA NWD TO KVIH. EAST OF THIS LINE...ANOTHER COOL SURGE HAS MOVED WWD INTO SERN MO OWING TO TSTMS MOVING EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. BUT...EVEN THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. WATCHES 180...181 AND 183 ALL EXPIRE AT 0600Z. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...ANOTHER WW WILL BE POSSIBLE...LIKELY SEVERE TSTM...OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. PRIND THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS FOR WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN MO SWWD INTO AR. EWD EXTENT IS IN QUESTION...BUT PERHAPS AS FAR AS SRN IL...FAR WRN KY AND WRN TN. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 36729358 39729180 39098974 37308980 36619051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 03:27:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 22:27:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220337.j3M3bOZH021194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220336 TXZ000-220500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... VALID 220336Z - 220500Z ...WW 179 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED RAPIDLY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING. EVEN STORMS OVER SUTTON COUNTY HAVE BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT...AND WITH NO ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR STORMS...THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31099937 30280062 30400182 31410070 31409887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 08:00:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 03:00:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504220810.j3M8AgP8031459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220809 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...SE MO...SRN IL...FAR WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184... VALID 220809Z - 220915Z A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO THE FAR ERN PART OF WW 184. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 184 MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CNTRL MO...SRN MO AND CNTRL AR WITH STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F ARE PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES STILL ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR COULD KEEP CONVECTION ACROSS AR NEAR SEVERE LIMITS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS ECNTRL AND SOUTHEAST AR WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION. ..BROYLES.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV... 33869352 34079400 34659369 35889201 37718972 38628894 38638798 38258740 37258800 36158924 34039217 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 10:27:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 05:27:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221037.j3MAbgGE001672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221036 TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN KY...MIDDLE TN...NE MS...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221036Z - 221200Z SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL ACROSS WRN KY...WRN TN AND NRN MS. AS THE LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. NO WW IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. TWO LINE SEGMENTS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING ALONG THE NRN END OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NEWD FROM NRN MS INTO WRN TN. THE INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TAKING PLACE DUE TO THE EXPANDING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN AR AND WRN TN. ALTHOUGH THE LINES ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR SRN KY...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL AND NE MS. A FORWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 35 KT COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE AND WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 33908827 34408913 35068923 36148847 37058706 36758591 35918527 34808586 33878719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 14:06:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 09:06:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221416.j3MEGAIE006379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221415 ALZ000-MSZ000-221545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221415Z - 221545Z ...WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROGRESSED STEADILY SEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF AL/MS...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SPEED MAX. DEEP WLY COMPONENT OBSERVED AT JAN AND BMX SUGGEST TRUE WARM SECTOR AND BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WILL OCCUR INITIALLY INTO THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AS IT SAGS SWD ACROSS WRN MS. ALTHOUGH INITIAL STORM MODE SUGGESTS MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...IT APPEARS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STRUCTURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... 32969086 33778868 33758647 32868657 32119030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 15:47:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 10:47:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221557.j3MFvTgI016873@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221556 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-221730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221556Z - 221730Z ...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IL INTO WRN IND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WW IS ANTICIPATED SHORTLY... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL...INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY. PARTIAL CLEARING IS NOW OBSERVED INTO SWRN IND WHERE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE SHORTLY. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF KY. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION IS THE STRONG EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WW WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THIS REGION AS SCENARIO UNFOLDS. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37368815 38788881 39878953 40168780 39008637 37348681 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 15:57:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 10:57:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221607.j3MG7H5b024056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221606 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...WRN/CENTRAL LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221606Z - 221800Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX...WRN/CENTRAL LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. AT 1550Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT RED RIVER PARISH LA WSWWD TO ANDERSON COUNTY TX. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2500 J/KG. AXIS OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS CIN CONTINUES TO DECREASE. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS PRIMARILY PARALLEL TO FRONT...SUGGESTING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE/LONG-LIVED CORES CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO BE AIDED BY STRONG 500-300MB DIVERGENCE BETWEEN SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS MO. AS COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 17Z. ..BANACOS.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 32069433 32259340 32349187 32649008 31278973 30929193 30839302 30459408 30099539 30069634 30349690 30799700 31229685 31529620 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 16:09:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 11:09:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221619.j3MGJfdo000958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221618 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-221815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN GA...ERN TN...WRN NC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 221618Z - 221815Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO WRN NC... LEADING EDGE OF OVERNIGHT MCS APPEARS TO BE REGENERATING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN GA INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS YET TO OVERSPREAD THIS ACTIVITY AND FORWARD PROPAGATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAST AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EMBEDDED ALONG THIS LEADING EDGE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC... 33918531 34958429 35998379 35818307 34408330 32848501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 17:32:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 12:32:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221742.j3MHgPid031407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221741 ALZ000-MSZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MS AND CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 185... VALID 221741Z - 221845Z A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING SEWD AT 25 MPH THROUGH ERN AL FROM NW OF LGC TO SW OF ANB. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE SEWD. OTHER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BHM TO NORTHEAST OF MEI. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN MOIST AXIS. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THESE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE AND DEVELOP SEWD. ..IMY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... 32388936 33028787 33708708 33738646 33418623 33488537 32828519 31898905 32218942 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 19:16:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 14:16:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221926.j3MJQ7x6008193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221925 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...CENTRAL LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... VALID 221925Z - 222100Z WW 186 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AIR MASS HAS REMAINED WEAKLY CAPPED THROUGH 19Z ACROSS THE WW AREA...WITH INITIAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL LA DISSIPATING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDING ENE-WSW THROUGH THE WATCH AREA...WITH A MORE ROBUST WIND SHIFT JUST SOUTH OF SHV AND GGG APPROACHING THE WATCH REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. SFC-6KM SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 40KT WHICH SUPPORTS THE PROSPECT OF LONG-LIVED STORMS. COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL CONTINUES PENDING INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. ..BANACOS.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29969450 31499498 33088974 31558921 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 19:18:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 14:18:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221928.j3MJSEKY009919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221927 SCZ000-GAZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GA TO NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187...189... VALID 221927Z - 222100Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW187 AND MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL SC... WELL ORGANIZED MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER NRN GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT...INTO A REGION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 9 C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THIS APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL DESPITE THE MODERATE FORWARD SPEED TO OVERALL COMPLEX. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 32628500 32968350 34618230 34138151 32538197 32058404 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 19:40:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 14:40:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504221950.j3MJoPi3025903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221949 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221949 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-222115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NERN MS...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221949Z - 222115Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL/MS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS REFLECTED NICELY IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY IN THE FORM OF AN ARCED BAND OF THICKENING CU ACROSS WRN TN INTO NERN AR ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FORCING OVERSPREADS HIGHER MOISTURE FIELD IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...DESPITE THE STRONGLY VEERED AND SOMEWHAT WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED MORE DISCRETE STORMS COULD EMERGE AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT BUT MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AS IT SURGES SEWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST STORMS. ..DARROW.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 33918928 35028849 36098857 36548743 36368564 34658594 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 20:09:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 15:09:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222019.j3MKJIBo014074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222017 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IN / SWRN OH / ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222017Z - 222145Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING E OF WW 188 / ACROSS PARTS OF SERN IN / SWRN OH / ERN KY. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 188 / ACROSS SRN IN...AND DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS SWRN OH / ERN KY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE BENEATH THIN MIDDLE / HIGH OVERCAST. LATEST ILN /WILMINGTON OH/ AND JKL /JACKSON KY/ VWPS SUPPORT MODEL PFC FORECASTS OF MODERATE SWLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS. THUS...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 40648530 40708408 40438339 39688282 37828278 36628381 36648475 38558514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:01:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:01:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222211.j3MMBn0H019456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222211 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IL...CNTRL/ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN IND...SWRN/SCNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...192... VALID 222211Z - 222345Z 21Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998MB MESOLOW VCNTY KIND WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE KDAY AREA THEN SEWD TO THE MID-OH VLY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE LAND-BETWEEN- THE-LAKES. THE MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KCAK TO NEAR KIND THEN WWD INTO CNTRL IL. A LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE N-S COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO SCNTRL IND AND NWRN KY. THE LINE CONSISTS OF A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. VWP FROM KEVV CLEARLY SHOWED A REAR INFLOW JET WITH AN...OTHERWISE...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN. THUS...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LINES MOVE EWD THROUGH SRN IND AND INTO CNTRL KY. MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLD SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS CNTRL/SERN IND AND CNTRL KY. THESE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NOSE OF A THETA-E RIDGE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GROW AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD SWRN/WCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY. FLOW PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT APPROACH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL IND INTO WCNTRL/SWRN OH MAY TEND TO EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 36878730 38258676 40098790 39968273 38398343 37668273 37098286 36668431 36728599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:08:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:08:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222219.j3MMJ10B022646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222217 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...EXTREME WRN NC AND NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222217Z - 222315Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 191. TSTMS CONTINUE TO GROW OUT OF THE CU FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA AND THERE IS NO REASON THAT STORMS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO MATURE. GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP INTO A LINE WITHIN THE UNDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX... 35118559 35908543 36498433 36558237 35828262 34708404 34458429 34298531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:13:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:13:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222223.j3MMNfqw025052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222222 TXZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222222Z - 230015Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SWD BETWEEN AUS AND SAT WITH CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WEAK CELLS EXIST PRESENTLY ACROSS ERN CALDWELL AND SRN BASTROP COUNTY AT 2210Z. LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS IS LACK OF DEEP-LAYER/LARGE SCALE ASCENT. UPSTREAM 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-7C/KM ARE ALSO MARGINAL. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 90F AND CIN VALUES BASED ON RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ARE NEAR 0. IT APPEARS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED. NWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29790117 30089897 30549565 30419469 29489460 28959555 28519721 28429830 28469948 28570032 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:18:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:18:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222228.j3MMSQrR027216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222211 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IL...CNTRL/ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN IND...SWRN/SCNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...192... VALID 222211Z - 222345Z 21Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998MB MESOLOW VCNTY KIND WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE KDAY AREA THEN SEWD TO THE MID-OH VLY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE LAND-BETWEEN- THE-LAKES. THE MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KCAK TO NEAR KIND THEN WWD INTO CNTRL IL. A LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE N-S COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO SCNTRL IND AND NWRN KY. THE LINE CONSISTS OF A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. VWP FROM KEVV CLEARLY SHOWED A REAR INFLOW JET WITH AN...OTHERWISE...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN. THUS...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LINES MOVE EWD THROUGH SRN IND AND INTO CNTRL KY. MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLD SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS CNTRL/SERN IND AND CNTRL KY. THESE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NOSE OF A THETA-E RIDGE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GROW AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD SWRN/WCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY. FLOW PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT APPROACH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL IND INTO WCNTRL/SWRN OH MAY TEND TO EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 36878730 38258676 40098790 39968273 38398343 37668273 37098286 36668431 36728599  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:22:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222232.j3MMWcR2029330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222217 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...EXTREME WRN NC AND NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222217Z - 222315Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 191. TSTMS CONTINUE TO GROW OUT OF THE CU FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA AND THERE IS NO REASON THAT STORMS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO MATURE. GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP INTO A LINE WITHIN THE UNDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX... 35118559 35908543 36498433 36558237 35828262 34708404 34458429 34298531  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 22:52:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 17:52:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222302.j3MN28eB009674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222301 ORZ000-WAZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NWRN ORE AND SWRN WA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 222301Z - 230030Z A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS NCNTRL/NWRN ORE AND SWRN WA THROUGH EVENING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE ORE/WA PACIFIC COAST. SUB MINUS 20C H5 TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND GIVEN HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AIR MASS HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...BAND OF 25-30 KT MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM HAS BOOSTED 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES INTO THE 40-45 KT RANGE. MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT COMPARATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL LIFE CYCLES OF THE UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS...THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY AUGMENT THE PRODUCTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD NWWD TOWARD SWRN WA THIS EVENING...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PDT...PQR... 43832296 45962279 46292124 45442028 44132138 43632247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 23:31:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 18:31:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504222341.j3MNfO2o026636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222340 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL AND NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 191...194... VALID 222340Z - 230115Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ADVECTING EWD QUICKLY THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL. TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MIX OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. NASHVILLE VWP SHOWS A WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE AND THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY 90 DEGREES TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...THUS THE TENDENCY FOR CELLS TO REMAIN DISCRETE. CELL SPLITS AND MERGERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RISK FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...THEN BECOME N-S LINE SEGMENTS. THESE LINE SEGMENTS MAY BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN GA AND ERN TN. AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE MORE STABLE FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE HIGHEST SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THUS...STORMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE NC BORDER BY 03Z. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 191 ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS EWD THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN... 34688693 36418650 36508395 34638439 34598677 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 23:55:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 18:55:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230005.j3N05rps003479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230005 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...SWRN/SCNTRL OH AND CNTRL/ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...192... VALID 230005Z - 230130Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO SWRN OH AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SEWD INTO SRN IND. DRYLINE WAS ARCING FROM THE CVG VCNTY SWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND A WARM FRONT BOWING NEWD THROUGH THE MID-OH VLY BEFORE CURVING SWD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. TSTMS THAT EVOLVED OVER CNTRL/SRN IND HAVE MAINTAINED A BLEND OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. SMALLER CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SWRN/SCNTRL OH...ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF THE THETA-E AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH AS STORM NUMBER INCREASES...EVOLUTION INTO MORE LINEAR MODES MAY OCCUR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. BUT...ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OH RVR VLY INTO SCNTRL OH WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED...ALBEIT WEAK. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY 02-03Z AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SCIOTO RVR VLY AND INTO THE KY COALFIELDS WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 36888553 38368502 40058603 39958276 38878296 38288347 37688280 36988327 36898421 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 00:49:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 19:49:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230100.j3N104oY024829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230059 VAZ000-TNZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN AND SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230059Z - 230130Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR NERN TN AND SWRN VA. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD/DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD THE BRISTOL AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX... 35988315 36708304 36958262 36838197 36278205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 01:19:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 20:19:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230129.j3N1TCmf004197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230128 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-230330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0828 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN MS...CENTRAL/SRN AL...WRN FLA PANHANDLE AND WCENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190... VALID 230128Z - 230330Z THE THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEYOND WW 190 EXPIRATION TIME /02Z/ ACROSS MUCH OF SERN MS...CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO WCENTRAL GA AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT. THUS A REPLACEMENT WW WBIS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW 190 AND INCLUDING AREAS OUTSIDE OF WW 190 /WCENTRAL GA...FAR SRN MS...AND THE FAR WRN FLA PANHANDLE/. ..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32958775 32478912 31568952 30698894 30258819 30348700 31078619 31888611 31988498 32878524 33848553 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 02:06:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 21:06:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230216.j3N2Gedl022038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230215 GAZ000-FLZ000-230315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN GA...FAR NRN FLA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193... VALID 230215Z - 230315Z THREAT FOR SVR THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 193 VALID TIME /03Z/ WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF FAR SERN GA. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF NERN FLA BEYOND 03Z. HOWEVER...THIS AREA SOUTH OF WW/S 193 AND 195 MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A NEW WATCH BY 03Z IF CONVECTION REORGANIZES OR SHOWS A STRENGTHENING TREND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM JAX SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS OUTRUN MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 195/FAR SRN PORTIONS OF WW 193. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR THROUGH 03Z SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CAMDEN COUNTY GA WHERE A STRONG STORMS REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR THE GUST FRONT. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE CONVECTIVE LINES REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PER THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ON WSWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW PER RECENT RISES IN DEWPTS OVER NCENTRAL FLA/SCENTRAL GA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/SFC TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN FL MAY BE NEEDED BY 03Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... 31738082 31478223 30618216 30598306 30218345 29778293 29658156 29908135 30718151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 02:15:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 21:15:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230225.j3N2PoJj025355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230225 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-230400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SCNTRL OH EWD TO THE MID-OH VLY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... VALID 230225Z - 230400Z N-S ORIENTED LINE OF TSTMS IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE SCIOTO VLY OF SCNTRL OH AND THE COALFIELDS OF KY AT MID-EVENING. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KY PORTION OF THE LINE. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS WV IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER SERN OH...VCNTY ATHENS/WELLSTON/ GALLIPOLIS/POMEROY MAY BE SIGNS OF THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION REGIME. PRIND THAT THE SRN LINE OF TSTMS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MID-OH VLY...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/WRN LOWLANDS OF WV OVERNIGHT. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BUT IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS ARE GENERALLY DECREASING GIVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY. ATTM...ANY ADDITIONAL WW ARE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE OH VLY REGION. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN... 36838389 39508342 39688269 39978087 39418051 38188125 37508212 36888353 36758409 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 02:34:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 21:34:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230244.j3N2iWGZ032516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230243 GAZ000-230345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194... VALID 230243Z - 230345Z THIS DISCUSSION CONCERNS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 194. THE MAJORITY OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 194 HAS BEEN CLEARED WITH SPC WWAS. ONLY A FEW COUNTIES REMAIN IN NWRN GA. TSTM LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS NWRN GA TOWARD THE KATL METRO AREA AND INTO WS 198. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS HAIL. AS SOON AS THESE STORMS CLEAR THE REMAINING COUNTIES...THIS WW WILL BE CANCELLED OR LET GO UNTIL 04Z EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC... 34098521 34258402 34048410 33848466 33718516 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 02:52:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 21:52:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230302.j3N32NiU007005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230301 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195... VALID 230301Z - 230430Z CLUSTER OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR SERN AL...INTO SWRN/SCENTRAL GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EWD INTO SCENTRAL GA NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOWS CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LEWP OVER FAR SERN AL. GREATEST SVR THREAT SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO FAR SWRN/SCENTRAL GA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW-ESE FROM 30 W ABY TO MGR AS 40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THIS BOUNDARY. AREAS OVER FAR SERN GA...WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND DEEP INTO THE STRATIFORM PRECIP REGION BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINES WEAKENING OVER THE SERN CORNER OF WW 195 SHOULD SEE LITTLE SVR THREAT THROUGH 05Z. ..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31948468 31608560 31238621 30838521 30678350 30568215 30958204 31258279 31788330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 03:09:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 22:09:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230319.j3N3JKcb013469@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230318 VAZ000-TNZ000-230415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN AND EXTREME SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197... VALID 230318Z - 230415Z LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING LINE OF TSTMS HAS JUST PASSED THE TRI-CITIES REGION OF NERN TN AND ADJACENT SWRN VA WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED FROM THE KTYS VCNTY SWD TOWARD KCHA...APPARENTLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF WS 197 THROUGH THE EVENING. IF TSTM TRENDS REMAIN DOWN ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF WS 197...IT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN THE 05Z EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX... 36148287 36208302 36688307 36878243 36898203 36508211 36368201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 03:19:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 22:19:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230329.j3N3TwQu017441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230329 MSZ000-LAZ000-230500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...ERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196... VALID 230329Z - 230500Z ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 N OF LFT TO 30 S OF LUL. NORTH OF THIS LINE...LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT FOR ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF WW 196 THROUGH ITS VALID TIME /07Z/. 03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN PARTS OF WW 193. RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN LA AND FAR SRN MS. DESPITE MODEST NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INCREASING SBCINH COMBINED AND DEEP CONVERGENCE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL SVR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 196 VALID TIME. THIS AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT WW STATUS MESSAGE AT 0330Z. FURTHER SOUTH...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW OVER FAR SERN LA SOUTH OF WW 196 APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC STREAMLINE/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 32298967 31359194 30599189 29779146 30868896 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 03:49:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 22:49:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230359.j3N3xBv8028440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230358 FLZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230358Z - 230430Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF NRN FL. A COUPLE OF LEWPS/BOWS WILL BE MOVING SEWD INTO NRN FL AT 45 KTS. REAR INFLOW JET OBSERVED ON AREA VWPS SUGGEST THAT THESE FEATURES MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS. AS A RESULT...A WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY FOR NRN FL. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 30458592 30718532 30608304 30348227 29638256 29668487 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 04:04:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 23:04:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230414.j3N4Enra001266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230414 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-230545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL...EXTREME WRN FL PNHDL...WCNTRL GA AND EXTREME SERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198... VALID 230414Z - 230545Z SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO CNTRL AL/MS WITH DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINING UNSTABLE. PRIMARY LINE OF STRONG- SEVERE TSTMS HAS MOVED INTO SWRN GA AND CNTRL FL PNHDL LATE THIS EVENING. BUT...GIVEN APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...WAKE DEPRESSION CONVERGENCE AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE MAIN PART OF WS 198. PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN MOST OF THE WW. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY FARTHER SE...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31548908 34058426 32828431 30508825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 04:11:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 23:11:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230421.j3N4LBpY003232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230420 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230420 MSZ000-LAZ000-230515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196... VALID 230420Z - 230515Z ISOLD TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN LA LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE MS RVR AND H5 WARMING WAS BEGINNING ACROSS WRN LA. THIS HAS PROBABLY AIDED IN SUPPRESSING ANY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAILSTONE WITH THE REMAINING STORMS...BUT IF A CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER CONTINUES... WS 196 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..RACY.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 30329167 30838941 30469000 29769150 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 07:19:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 02:19:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504230729.j3N7TH0b003033@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230728 FLZ000-230900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230728Z - 230900Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND ONTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LINE SHOULD HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. AS A RESULT...WW 199 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH NO ADDITIONAL WW EXPECTED. A BOWED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS AND A FORWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 35 KT WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ONTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE LINE NEAR A COLD FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AREAS FARTHER EAST. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE A HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29598388 29888569 30048627 30728606 30598431 30198265 29708158 29408118 28918108 28518183 29198303 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 16:26:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 11:26:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504231636.j3NGahoW032285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231636 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231635 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...SRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231635Z - 231830Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH HAS AIDED DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM NRN NC INTO EXTREME SRN PA. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOW RELATIVELY STEEP WITH 7.5-8C/KM VALUES OBSERVED. THIS SUPPORTS THE RECENT BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DEEPENING. WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE...POSSIBLY BECOMING ORGANIZED IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST FORCING. WW WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR THIS AREA BY 17-18Z. ..DARROW.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37257908 38937840 40067871 39657685 37207696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 18:44:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 13:44:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504231854.j3NIsAGn006965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231853 IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...SERN WA...AND WRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231853Z - 232030Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN ORE...WRN ID...AND SERN WA. THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS SHORT-LIVED...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID-UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NNEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION HAS BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH REGION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS NERN ORE/WRN ID. LARGE-SCALE UVV SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO SERN WA. DESPITE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-22C AT 500MB/ WILL YIELD MAX MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM. A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS...WITH THE PROSPECT FOR LARGE HAIL...ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY... INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNDRAFTS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MARGINAL CAPE AND RESULTING ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW. ..BANACOS.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 46481711 45881637 45071577 44531562 43701571 43481658 43511774 43801884 44461942 45251969 46301911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 19:07:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 14:07:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504231917.j3NJHu93019250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231917 NCZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200... VALID 231917Z - 232045Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES... WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO AID TSTM ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT APPEARS AN ELONGATED N-S SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH... 36087867 37837791 39657814 40657814 39867676 36007589 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 20:17:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 15:17:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504232027.j3NKRAfU019928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232026 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC...NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200... VALID 232026Z - 232200Z ...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EAST OF WW OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME... LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW200. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE EMERGED NEAR COASTAL WATERS FROM NC INTO SERN VA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE COAST...THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE EAST OF CURRENT WW. AT THIS TIME WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX... 34847786 36667689 40777604 39347486 35367621 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 21:46:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 16:46:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504232156.j3NLu643026806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232155 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AZ...AND SWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232155Z - 240000Z COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG A SSE-NNW AXIS FROM S-CENTRAL AZ TO SWRN UT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD...WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STRONG LOW-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR 30.5N 121W AT 2130Z WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA CA COAST. COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING SSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE 18Z RUC INDICATES THAT 500MB FLOW INCREASES TO 50-60KT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL AZ THROUGH 03Z WITH APPROACH OF UPPER WAVE. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED SUBSTANTIALLY...REACHING THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F IN VALLEY AND BASIN LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CONVECTION INCREASES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /40-45F/. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED STORMS IN STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD LIMIT NUMBER OF SEVERE...HAIL PRODUCING STORMS. ..BANACOS.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 37201405 37911314 37661206 33971005 32210906 31441000 31401114 32711270 34401385 35121399 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 23:07:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 18:07:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504232317.j3NNHOk5029396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232316 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-240015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...MD...DE...SRN NJ...ERN VA...NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200... VALID 232316Z - 240015Z VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 200 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. A STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT UP TO 40KT OFF THE VA CAPES AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. DESPITE STRONG FORCING ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION... WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ISOLATED/LIMITED. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50KT...AND SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE AT IT MOVES EAST OVER PORTIONS OF SERN PA/SRN NJ...AND ACROSS DELAWARE BAY...OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 04/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 36077701 36087723 39417642 40507685 40187551 39687508 38557501 36977507 36077598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 18:02:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 13:02:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504251812.j3PICnsa015644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251811 OKZ000-TXZ000-251915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251811Z - 251915Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED FROM WRN OK SWD TO NEAR SPS AND THEN SWWD TO JUST EAST OF SJT. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD...WHILE ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION...RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 C AT 500 MB/ ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FURTHER ENHANCE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A THREAT. ..PETERS.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36969647 35029585 33999580 33939773 34059843 35719872 36919914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 18:25:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 13:25:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504251835.j3PIZmJ2002338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251834 TXZ000-OKZ000-252000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING DFW METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251834Z - 252000Z CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX IS BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THREAT OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL /IN EXCESS OF 2" DIAMETER/ AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SFC PATTERN AT 1830Z FEATURES A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER FAR SWRN OK WITH A CONFLUENCE AXIS/DEVELOPING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM SPS TO BWD. MEANWHILE...A MESOSCALE COLD POOL EXISTS EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONTINUATION OF WEAK ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD. AXIS OF ONGOING...STRONG SFC HEATING BETWEEN THE FORMING DRYLINE AND WRN PERIPHERY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE DESTABILIZATION NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL NMM WRF AT 4KM RESOLUTION INDICATES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BEGINNING NEAR 21Z. STRONG ZONAL UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20 M/S...SUGGESTS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE SUPPORTED. ADDITIONALLY...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR NUMEROUS TORNADOES... HOWEVER...VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES DESPITE THE LESS THAN OPTIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. ..BANACOS.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 33959834 33729639 32869616 31779630 30539738 30739914 31049915 32729845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 21:07:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 16:07:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504252117.j3PLHgeI023287@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252116 TXZ000-OKZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0416 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX...INCLUDING DFW METRO AREA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202... VALID 252116Z - 252215Z SEVERE STORMS IN DFW METRO AREA DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /IN EXCESS OF 2" DIAMETER/ AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. TWO DOMINANT RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS ACROSS TARRANT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES IN THE FT. WORTH AREA WILL PROCEED EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DFW METRO AREA AT 25-30KT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE LOCALLY BACKED IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS...PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION. FT. WORTH VAD WIND PROFILE AND CURRENT STORM MOTION YIELDS HIGH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. MODIFICATION OF OBSERVED 19Z FWD SOUNDING YIELDS MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH THESE SUPERCELLS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS STORMS TRAVERSE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL CIN. ..BANACOS.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 30479695 30599831 31039856 32079832 33589751 33759698 33749572 32319615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 22:32:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 17:32:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504252242.j3PMg5AX004090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252241 OKZ000-TXZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201... VALID 252241Z - 260015Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY OK...IN SRN PORTION OF WW 202. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THIS REGION OF ENHANCED FORCING AND EXPECT STRENGTHENING STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS JEFFERSON... STEPHENS... AND CARTER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER N TX...IN TORNADO WATCH 202. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO APEX OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL ENSURE SUPERCELL EVOLUTION. SITUATION APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE...HAIL FROM THESE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34139593 34079859 36919757 36919489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 22:34:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 17:34:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504252244.j3PMikMZ004852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252244 COR OKZ000-TXZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201... VALID 252244Z - 260015Z CORRECTED FOR WATCH NUMBER IN FIRST SENTENCE... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY OK...IN SRN PORTION OF WW 201. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THIS REGION OF ENHANCED FORCING AND EXPECT STRENGTHENING STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS JEFFERSON... STEPHENS... AND CARTER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER N TX...IN TORNADO WATCH 202. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO APEX OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL ENSURE SUPERCELL EVOLUTION. SITUATION APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE...HAIL FROM THESE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34139593 34079859 36919757 36919489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 23:04:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 18:04:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504252314.j3PNENDI019057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252313 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...SERN OK...AND SWRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202... VALID 252313Z - 260015Z TORNADO WATCH 202 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR AREAS OF NERN TX...SERN OK...AND SWRN AR AS ONGOING ACTIVITY TRACKS GENERALLY EWD. THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA REVEALS A 998MB SFC LOW IN S-CENTRAL OK...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD TO JUST WEST OF THE DFW METRO AREA BEFORE ARCING SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN AXIS OF STRONG PRESSURE FALLS REMAINS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN N-CENTRAL TX /FALLS OF 3-4MB IN 2HRS/. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS RELATIVELY NARROW...EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN NNWWD TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE DFW METRO AREA. INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES TO THE EAST ACROSS NERN TX. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW 202 AREA...FROM FANNIN COUNTY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO HILL COUNTY SOUTH OF DALLAS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...AWAY FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY DRYLINE AT 25-30KT. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION...THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND GREATER CIN TO THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCED NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS...AND DECREASING TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS TRACK INTO NERN TX LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER PERSISTING SEVERE WEATHER INTO NERN TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 04/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 32389724 33829636 34509545 34469427 34189346 33009406 31899446 31379518 30529681 30559880 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 01:37:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 20:37:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504260146.j3Q1ku5k019161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260146 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0846 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN TX...SWRN AR/FAR NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202... VALID 260146Z - 260215Z WW 202 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z GIVEN ISOLATED THREAT ATTM. ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING IF A GREATER COVERAGE OF SVR IS ANTICIPATED. LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN ACROSS NRN TX AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TX. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER NCENTRAL TX AND MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DFW METRO AREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AS THEY MOVED WELL EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORM OVER GRAYSON COUNTY NORTH OF DFW APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER NW TX. AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD...EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS INTO NERN TX/SWRN AR AND FAR NWRN LA OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AREA WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD... 34069319 33789611 33509681 33029670 32219529 32669314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 01:40:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 20:40:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504260150.j3Q1oM7i020562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260149 ARZ000-OKZ000-260315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0849 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203... VALID 260149Z - 260315Z A FEW VIGOROUS TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS NERN-CNTRL OK AT THIS HOUR...AS WELL AS NEAR DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR HUGHES COUNTY...AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER. ALREADY WEAKLY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL FURTHER STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH LIFT CONTINUING ALONG THE MESOSCALE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH...A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION REMAINS LARGE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... 33969463 33979688 36339652 36379460 34999444 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 03:40:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 22:40:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504260350.j3Q3oHuT010158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260349 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0689 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260349Z - 260515Z CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS PRODUCING HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX...SERN OK AND SWRN AR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AN NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THESE AREAS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS OK LATE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST FROM SWRN OK AND NWRN TX. RETREATING DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WAS RECENTLY ANALYZED OVER SCNTRL OK NEAR CARTER COUNTY AND LATEST SFC/MESONET OBS THIS AREA INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE. RADAR ECHOES ALSO APPEAR TO BE BACKBUILDING SWWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THIS REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING. FURTHERMORE...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER WISE AND TARRANT COUNTIES IN NRN TX. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NERN TX AND SERN OK WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG AND DEEPENING ASCENT THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE OVER THE REGION. RESULTING TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THEREFORE...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 33819674 34669423 32319341 31349449 32099807 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 06:16:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 01:16:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504260626.j3Q6Q4qB006997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260624 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-260830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...NRN LA AND SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260624Z - 260830Z A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SW AR AND FAR NE TX WILL MOVE ESEWD WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT WATCH. INTENSE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH END OF AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS EAST TX AS SHOW ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FROM SERN AR SWWD INTO NE TX AS SHOW ON VAD WIND PROFILERS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER NE TX WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SHEAR PRESENT. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT-LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS SRN AR AND FAR NRN LA. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD GRADUALLY EWD OVERNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND LLJ SPREAD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ..BROYLES.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33339095 32899138 32319324 32369436 32669488 33059479 33869320 34039189 33759113 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 11:28:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 06:28:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261138.j3QBc02Z014671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261137 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0691 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS AND CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261137Z - 261300Z CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN SWRN LA AND SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED FOR SRN LA AND SRN AND CNTRL MS. SFC ANALYSIS AT 11Z SHOWS SSWLY FLOW TRANSPORTING UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD INTO SWRN LA. THIS IS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND A COASTAL FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NWD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED...AS TEMPS WARM...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO BECOME SFC-BASED. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR AND RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS ONCE STORMS BECOME SFC-BASED. ..BROYLES.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29429200 29689312 29829352 31299302 32169200 32149015 31648842 29448901 29319039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 14:39:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 09:39:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261449.j3QEnnhA010334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261449 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-261645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0692 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0949 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL INTO WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261449Z - 261645Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW. SHORT WAVE...PROGRESSING THROUGH BASE OF LARGER-SCALE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA/ CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS LINE CONTINUES EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...WITH RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. COOL MID-LEVEL AIR MASS IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...WITH FURTHER COOLING LIKELY AS BOUNDARY LAYER POSSESSING MID 50S+ DEW POINTS BEGINS TO WARM. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALREADY PRESENT IN BROAD CORRIDOR FROM MOBILE TO MONTGOMERY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG BY 18-20Z. AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD INTENSIFY...WITH WEAK CAP ALSO ALLOWING MORE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ALABAMA...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 31648847 32438838 33088714 34188639 34828530 34418403 32988426 31168514 30808635 30708770 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 15:57:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 10:57:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261607.j3QG79Ri003954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261605 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS AND ERN/SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205... VALID 261605Z - 261800Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH/EAST OF THE JACKSON/MERIDIAN AREAS. INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WW AREA APPEAR LIMITED...AND LIKELY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES NORTH/NORTHWEST OF GULFPORT MS/MOBILE AL TIL AROUND 19-19Z. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31078988 31458944 31548864 30978829 30358846 30148897 30188968 30358976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 17:10:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 12:10:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261720.j3QHKJS4030349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261719 FLZ000-GAZ000-261915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261719Z - 261915Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVERSPREADS REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS. SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS HAVE BECOME EVIDENT ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COASTAL AREAS...AND INLAND THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN INTERACTING BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY WEAKEN SOME AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS THIS AFTERNOON...ONGOING DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COMPENSATE FOR THIS...SUPPORTING RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 30238520 30738505 31048380 31298299 31398245 31358193 30808149 30228151 29968199 29748276 29798370 29838462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 18:45:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 13:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504261855.j3QItC1G009147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261854 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-262000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MS INTO CNTRL/SRN AL/SW GA/WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205... VALID 261854Z - 262000Z TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW 205 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 21Z. CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA. HOWEVER...SOUTHWARD ADVANCE TOWARD SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER...WITH MID- LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. BAND OF FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SOUTH OF BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE PONCHARTRAIN INTO AREAS NORTH OF BOUNDARY...ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. CAPE IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF OUTFLOW...AND MOIST LAYER ABOVE OUTFLOW...IS ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...AND WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL THREAT IN FAVORABLE COOL/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THIS POINT...HAIL HAS ONLY BEEN MARGINALLY IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS...BUT ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUTFLOW COULD STILL INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE MOBILE AREA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30779063 31118927 31668791 32468684 32808618 32718541 32188462 31278464 29718578 29368699 29088905 29749094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 20:08:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 15:08:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504262018.j3QKIqkj010597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262017 FLZ000-GAZ000-262115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL INTO CNTRL FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206... VALID 262017Z - 262115Z CONTINUE WW. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW AREA IN THE NEAR TERM AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH PHASING SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH AXIS IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TILT NOW...AND IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION. CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING COLD POOLS MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO SQUALL LINE APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 27/00Z. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY SPREAD OUT OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31028404 30978311 31048164 31008096 27607965 27648272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 22:21:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 17:21:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504262231.j3QMVk4H012262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262231 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-270000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 207... VALID 262231Z - 270000Z A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 207 FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY NEWD TO SWRN GA WHERE GREATER SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION HAVE OCCURRED. A BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WAS LOCATED NEAR A WEAK SFC LOW...TROUGH AXIS...AND WARM FRONT FROM WALTON COUNTY TO JACKSON COUNTY IN THE FL PNHDL. STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW ACROSS THIS ACTIVITY WAS RESULTING IN STRONGLY SHEARED UPDRAFTS AND FAST MOVING STORMS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA INDICATE WARM AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...PERHAPS LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH. HOWEVER...FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FARTHER EAST AND WITH TIME SUGGEST A GRADUAL EROSION OF THIS LAYER. GIVEN CONTINUATION OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE TOWARD A REGION WITH GREATER INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 29898450 29748703 30458650 31238566 31318446 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 22:38:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 17:38:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504262248.j3QMm9vK022709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262247 FLZ000-GAZ000-262345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN FL / SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206... VALID 262247Z - 262345Z STORMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE WITHIN STRONG CONVERGENT ZONE OVER THE ERN GULF...BUT ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD AND ONSHORE DUE TO LESSENING INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS LACKING AS UPPER TROUGH HAS BOTTOMED OUT...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAKENING AS WINDS VEERS. THUS...IT APPEARS THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DECREASING. THE GREATEST THREAT MAY BE OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 206..ADJACENT TO WW 207 WHERE STRONGER STORMS EXIST. EVEN THESE MAY WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY GET INTO WW 206. NONETHELESS...GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...STRONGER CORES MAY HAVE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL...BUT THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. ..JEWELL.. 04/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 27608277 31048408 31028091 27597964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 27 00:19:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 19:19:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504270029.j3R0TTKA016991@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270028 FLZ000-270130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206... VALID 270028Z - 270130Z LARGE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT UP TO 30KT ACROSS SCNTRL FL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 206 OVER THE REMAINING HALF HOUR VALID TIME. GIVEN THIS LIMITED THREAT IN SPACE AND TIME...ANOTHER WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME AND WATCH 206 WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z/8PM EDT. ..CARBIN.. 04/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... 27418272 27728280 28668140 29208023 27617966 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 19:36:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 14:36:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504281947.j3SJlLFO014494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281945 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0702 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME ERN OK...SRN MO...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281945Z - 282145Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW LIKELY WILL BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...BENEATH STRONG ZONAL SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. FIRST OF AT LEAST A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME IS NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM ALREADY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO LEAD SYSTEM...40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS ARKANSAS...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80F ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING...AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS EAST OF OKLAHOMA SURFACE LOW...ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...BOTH BOUNDARIES COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CAP WEAKENS AND FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM IMPULSE. SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 29/00Z...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR...MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...PRIMARY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ ..KERR.. 04/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37079394 37389291 37309011 36688997 35639083 34669192 34079256 34339345 34599475 35419453 35759450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 00:30:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 19:30:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504290040.j3T0ekBw014129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290039 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-290215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / ERN OK / NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208... VALID 290039Z - 290215Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS YET TO OCCUR ACROSS WW AREA. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LINE OF CUMULUS INVOF FRONT / LOW OVER ERN OK HAS NOT YET EVOLVED INTO TCU / CBS AS WAS ANTICIPATED. THOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN OK / NWRN AR...SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IS A NEGATIVE ACROSS THIS REGION. A LIMITED THREAT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS NRN AR...N OF BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING AR FROM W-E. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR UPDRAFT INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONFIRM BOUNDARY-LAYER INDICATIONS THAT GREATEST MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD EVOLVE E OF THIS REGION ACROSS TN NEAR NOSE OF SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THEREFORE...WITH WEAKER FORCING ANTICIPATED FURTHER W ACROSS AR...ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP MAY REMAIN ISOLATED. THIS COMBINED WITH OVERALL STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE / CAPE CONFIRMED BY EVENING LZK /LITTLE ROCK AR/ RAOB WOULD SUGGEST A ONLY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- WHICH SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME ACROSS WW AREA. ..GOSS.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36759426 37129162 36989110 35509157 34689264 34829551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 02:42:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 21:42:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504290252.j3T2qUx5023354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290251 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR / SERN MO / PARTS OF TN AND KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290251Z - 290415Z THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED. LONE SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING ATTM IN STONE COUNTY AR -- IN ERN PORTIONS OF WW 208 WHICH EXPIRES AT 29/03Z. THIS STORM IS THE LEFT-MOVING MEMBER OF A PRIOR SUPERCELL SPLIT...AND THIS SUPERCELL PAIR HAS BEEN THE ONLY CONVECTION OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED THREAT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THUS...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AT BEST ANTICIPATED...NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 36279264 37119014 37258779 36728643 36188606 35688887 35249230 35669277 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 09:26:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 04:26:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504290936.j3T9au4f004381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290936 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-291130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290936Z - 291130Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST OK ACROSS NORTHERN AR THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM WEST OF FSM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. NAM/RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE IN SPREADING CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED FOR TRENDS IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..HART.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36489443 36539361 36649225 36629122 35939125 35349228 35149371 35159498 35669555 36119544 36439495 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 14:24:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 09:24:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504291434.j3TEYoKG010466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291434 TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-291630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR...NW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... VALID 291434Z - 291630Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...WW 209 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW TO BETTER REFLECT THREAT AREA. SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION IS BECOMING SHEARED AS IT PROGRESSES INTO CONFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES. PRIMARY SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM....ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU... AND...IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MID-LEVEL WARMING MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID DAY...FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING ABOVE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 35459369 35559266 35509198 35539123 35659027 34569020 34409216 34459273 34789378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 17:16:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 12:16:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504291726.j3THQnw4022124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291725 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-291800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR INTO WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... VALID 291725Z - 291800Z SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE/NORTH OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO MAINTAIN RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. NEW WW IS CURRENTLY PLANNED BY THE 18Z EXPIRATION OF WW 209. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 35039419 35559336 35899247 36069142 36309020 36318929 35718905 35169006 34759118 34599173 34619306 34659365 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 19:07:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 14:07:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504291917.j3TJHmh8012656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291917 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-292115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX THRU SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291917Z - 292115Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER...MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DEEPEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR TEXARKANA. SOME DEEPENING OF LOW IS OCCURRING...BUT PRIMARY UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MAY TEND TO DELAY/SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING OF INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW... WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND BY 21-22Z AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 34049425 34219390 34289268 34399214 34099156 33539197 33129264 32759335 32719390 33189453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 19:19:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 14:19:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504291929.j3TJTjMb022299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291928 COR ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-292115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX THRU SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291928Z - 292115Z CORRECTED MD GRAPHIC TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER...MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DEEPEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR TEXARKANA. SOME DEEPENING OF LOW IS OCCURRING...BUT PRIMARY UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MAY TEND TO DELAY/SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING OF INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW... WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND BY 21-22Z AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 34049425 34219390 34289268 34399214 34099156 33539197 33129264 32759335 32719390 33189453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 20:31:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 15:31:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504292041.j3TKfaps014895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292040 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-292245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... VALID 292040Z - 292245Z CONTINUE WW. LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK INTO AREAS NORTH OF MEMPHIS. LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/WARM SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...AND AS THESE PARCELS ARE LIFTED ABOVE SHALLOW INVERSION LAYER...INCREASE IN CAPE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL SIZES WITH MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM MISSOURI/ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY TO FINALLY DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARD 00Z. ..KERR.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK... 35089337 35759222 36069110 36348940 36848744 36648689 36248676 35908688 35628794 35338952 35009056 34729261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 21:01:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 16:01:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504292112.j3TLCLIK005740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292110 TXZ000-292315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INTO SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 292110Z - 292315Z WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VIS SATELLITE TRENDS ACROSS ERN INTO SCNTRL TX...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/WIND WOULD EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN INITIATION. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ALONG COLD FRONT IN ERN TX...WITH THE RELATIVELY MORE AGGRESSIVE CU FIELD OCCURRING NEAR THERMAL LOW/DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION IN SCNTRL TX NEAR TPL/AUS. GIVEN STRONG ELEVATED WARM LAYER /EVIDENT IN 12Z RAOBS/ ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL JET...ISOLD TSTM INITIATION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...AS SEEN IN 18Z RUC POINT SOUNDINGS...FRONTAL FORCING COMBINED WITH WELL MIXED AIRMASS /ON PERIPHERY OF 90F SFC TEMPS IN SCNTRL TX/ MAY PROMOTE A FEW ISOLD STORMS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT ISOLD SEVERE THREAT. ..GUYER.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29919672 29459820 29739839 30779742 31559609 32409534 31859464 30929524 30199614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 22:55:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 17:55:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504292305.j3TN5r35009320@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292304 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-300000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... VALID 292304Z - 300000Z GIVEN SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION OF WW 210 AND ONGOING SEVERE ACROSS WRN TN...A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR FAR NE AR INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN. MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE ALONG EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ECNTRL/NE AR INTO MIDDLE TN...WITH STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR/LONG HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT PER REGIONAL VADS/RUC SOUNDINGS. WITH INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING...A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON. ..GUYER.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK... 34759117 35469118 36479023 36618776 36568610 35098594 34968778 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 23:20:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 18:20:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504292330.j3TNUO6a021974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292329 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX / SRN AR / NRN LA / NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211... VALID 292329Z - 300100Z CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW...BUT STORMS REMAIN SUB-SEVERE ATTM. HOWEVER...SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW. DESPITE DEWP0INTS IN THE UPPER 60S...PERSISTENT SW-NE CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX / NWRN LA NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR HAS HINDERED BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WEAK AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED -- PRESUMABLY DUE TO THIS LACK OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS WARM SECTOR. AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO MS / NERN LA WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING / DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED...SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE. ..GOSS.. 04/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 32849439 34259360 35048831 33188813 31049449 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 01:44:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 20:44:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300154.j3U1sWU3028954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300153 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-300330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA / NRN MS / NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211... VALID 300153Z - 300330Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INVOF THE MS RIVER. WITH SEVERE THREAT FORECAST TO PERSIST...WW 211 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NERN LA...NRN MS AND EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN AL. SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY ACROSS MS / AL INTO THE TN VALLEY ATTM...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. STORM OVER NERN PANOLA COUNTRY MS HAS SHOWN SOME ROTATION RECENTLY...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME WITHIN BAND EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO NRN LA. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...FAVORABLY-SHEARED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AT LEAST AS FAR E AS WRN PORTIONS OF NRN AL...SO EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO EXTEND E OF CURRENT WW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY REPLACE WW 211 WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH COVERING MUCH OF NRN MS AND NRN AL. ..GOSS.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...SHV... 34638996 35168558 33308529 31619246 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 02:13:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 21:13:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300223.j3U2NwLd010651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300223 NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212... VALID 300223Z - 300400Z CONTINUE WW. EMBEDDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS MIDDLE/WRN TN WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME PER NASHVILLE VAD WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE FEED OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM THE SW INTO THE WATCH AREA. A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE PRECIPITATION AREA ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. STRONGER STORMS ARE RACING ENEWD AT 50-60KT IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...STRONG SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 60KT AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. SWD MOTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY DIABATIC EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION DOWNDRAFTS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. EFFECTIVE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS NRN MS AND S-CENTRAL TN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH UPGLIDE ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE. ..BANACOS.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...MEG... 34668997 35418998 35598945 36138870 36598381 35318380 35008721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 03:45:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 22:45:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300356.j3U3uANc020627@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300355 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX / SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300355Z - 300600Z WEAK / SHALLOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT. CONTINUED EROSION OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF LFK WSWWD TO NEAR DRT. SHALLOW CONVECTION -- PRESUMABLY BENEATH CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON EVENING RAOBS INVOF 800 MB -- NOW EXTENDS AS FAR SW AS THE SAT VICINITY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION -- IN THE 8 C/KM RANGE...WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SHOULD CAP BE BREACHED. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS WOULD SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS FORM. COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SERN NM / W TX AND FORCING INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF CAP FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 30220063 30179995 29839852 29959748 30149682 30609615 31319465 31489348 31059140 29639221 29749390 28849558 28099698 27859873 28400031 29750141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 05:59:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 00:59:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300609.j3U69nO5016771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300608 NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-300715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212... VALID 300608Z - 300715Z MUCH OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS MIDDLE AND ERN TN REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW OF UP TO 60KT AT 500MB...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC WAVE OVER NERN MS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY BE WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN...FROM MARSHALL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ENEWD ACROSS BEDFORD...COFFEE...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS TRACKING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN NRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STORM STRUCTURE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35348381 35068454 35028839 35308835 35788730 36668654 36598381 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 06:29:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 01:29:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300640.j3U6e7lq029538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300639 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-300815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LA...MS...AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 213... VALID 300639Z - 300815Z CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN/CNTRL MS...WRN AL...AND NERN LA EARLY TODAY. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM SFC LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN AL SWWD TO THE MS RIVER NEAR HEZ. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WERE MOVING GENERALLY EWD INTO AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY FROM THE MS DELTA TO WRN AL. STRONG DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CONTINUED LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TRACKING EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE MORE ENHANCED NEAR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL AND MESOCYCLONE IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MS EWD TO THE AL BORDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHERE SFC FLOW IS BACKED AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATES 0-1KM SRH APPROACHING 250 M2/S2. HOWEVER...STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN TROPICAL AIR MASS FROM EXTREME NERN LA ACROSS SCNTRL MS REGION WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...SHV... 31429013 31569342 34978894 34938562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 07:11:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 02:11:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504300722.j3U7M6pB015274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300721 TXZ000-300945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW/SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300721Z - 300945Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SCNTRL TX. WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...AND ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM VAL VERDE AND CROCKETT COUNTIES NEWD TO MENARD AND CONCHO COUNTIES IN TX. THIS CONVECTION HAS LIKELY INITIATED ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FORCING WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM SRN NM AND FAR W TX. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY WAS LIKELY BEING LIFTED NWWD INTO THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RESULTANT INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FUEL A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SMALL MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS CONVECTION AND DRIFT ESEWD NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST HAZARD FROM THIS CONVECTION AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... 30039850 29200099 29640139 30510143 31129999 31379945 31309883 30969844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 11:31:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 06:31:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301142.j3UBgDHo028721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301141 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...GA....AL....SRN MS...SERN LA...WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215... VALID 301141Z - 301315Z EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT UP TO 50KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA...SERN AL AND PARTS OF THE FL PNHDL THIS MORNING. FARTHER SW...FROM SRN AL ACROSS SERN LA...EWD MOTION OF THE LINE WILL BE SLOWER. LATEST MOTION ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 215 WOULD SUGGEST THAT A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF GA...SERN AL...AND PERHAPS SC...IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS COLD POOLS HAVE MERGED AND FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS QUITE STRONG. A POSSIBLE MESOLOW HAS EVOLVED OVER CNTRL AL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NRN AND SRN SQUALL LINE SEGMENTS. NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION...SOME MOVING AT OVER 50KT...WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE LINES AND ARE LIKELY PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OF 30-50KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE WRN FL PNHDL NEWD ACROSS GA AND SC THIS MORNING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATED THAT THE PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STEADILY DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE LINE. THUS...EXPECT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A COUPLE TORNADOES TO PERSIST EWD AS STRONG LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING CONTINUE TO ACT ON VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 34508481 33888408 33668146 33308108 31788242 28308749 28478950 29719064 31958796 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 13:10:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 08:10:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301320.j3UDKP8H020803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301319 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301319 NCZ000-SCZ000-301345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC AND NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301319Z - 301345Z RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL IS INCREASING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34168251 35168186 35808123 36418047 36497904 36337796 36247705 35287769 34257829 33307953 32808060 33168158 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 14:49:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 09:49:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301459.j3UExk9u013819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301459 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301458 LAZ000-TXZ000-301700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301458Z - 301700Z THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS GENERALLY ADVANCED OFF TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... AND FRONTAL INVERSION CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/ EASTERN TEXAS. HOWEVER...AIR MASS ABOVE INVERSION LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF MAIN SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CAPE FOR PARCELS IN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER MAY BE A BIT LARGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE...HAIL SIZES LIKELY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29249897 29909777 30569595 30889437 30569376 30179365 29279466 28199624 27619822 27999889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 15:15:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 10:15:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301526.j3UFQ8Vq029698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301525 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301525 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-301730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/EASTERN CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... VALID 301525Z - 301730Z SURFACE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES DEEPEN AND DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT APPROACHES TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ...AS MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES IS TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE...AND COLD POOL STRENGTHENS/SURGES DOWN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAINS. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33458142 34338085 35418019 35957987 36467869 36437751 36227687 35657697 34807764 34257862 33637949 32978016 32798058 32798166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 15:52:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 10:52:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301603.j3UG38tP019454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301602 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301602 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA/SE MS/SR AL/WRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215... VALID 301602Z - 301700Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17Z. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA/SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...AND IS ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. HOWEVER... LARGE CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/WESTERN FLORIDA...AND OFF CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE IT IS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL/FRONT... AND WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CONVECTION LIKELY WILL LIMIT HAIL THREAT. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30389065 30718979 31258834 31428714 31258620 30208575 29578644 29028778 28368930 28339053 28569197 29559258 30219177 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 16:38:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 11:38:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301649.j3UGn5EC016543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301648 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-301715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216... VALID 301648Z - 301715Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WEATHER WW 216 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW...WHICH WILL INCLUDE GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS... SHORTLY. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE EASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AT 45 TO 50 KTS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH THIS LINE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SAVANNAH/BRUNSWICK AREAS BY AROUND 18Z. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31708266 32348221 32668128 31918100 31308124 30858144 30488176 29868302 30188406 30788373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 17:08:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 12:08:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301718.j3UHIYu5002734@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301717 VAZ000-NCZ000-301915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA/ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301717Z - 301915Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER. 45 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE FORCING...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MOIST DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS HEATING TOWARD 80F...AND CAPE IS INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG. THUS...THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN COLD POOL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS INTO THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREAS BY 20-21Z. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 37817769 38067676 37347591 36307587 35417612 35237732 35577787 36327828 36587833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 19:12:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 14:12:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301922.j3UJMS7N013398@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301921 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-302015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC...COASTAL SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... VALID 301921Z - 302015Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT SCHEDULED 20Z EXPIRATION. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT...AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN CAPPING...HAVE APPARENTLY INHIBITED MORE VIGOROUS/EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT TO SUGGEST FURTHER STRENGTHENING IN NEAR TERM...OTHER THAN PRESENCE OF POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF GUST FRONT...WHICH CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN. THUS... SEVERE THREAT HAS NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISHED...BUT IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO CONTINUE WW. ..KERR.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... 36257728 37207703 37707686 37557658 37147635 36417637 35437601 35067628 34807696 34227808 33367910 32778012 33138006 34057894 35727771 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 19:15:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 14:15:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200504301925.j3UJPhd9015701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301925 NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218... VALID 301925Z - 302100Z SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NE HALF OF WW 218 OVER MUCH SRN/ERN GA...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING ACROSS THE NRN FL PORTION OF WW 218. CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS QUICKLY THROUGH COASTAL GA. AIRMASS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THESE TSTMS...WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT DIMINISHING ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER SOUTH...FROM THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA...MAIN SEVERE THREAT PRIMARILY REMAINS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WHERE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. GIVEN APPROACHING DYNAMIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN TX/WRN LA...ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS BULK OF NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 04/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...MEG... 34668997 35418998 35598945 36138870 36598381 35318380 35008721 WWWW