[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180039 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO...SWRN MO...NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180039Z - 180245Z

CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER NERN KS INTO FAR SERN NEB BY 04Z. THE AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK IN THE 01Z OUTLOOK.

00Z SOUNDING FROM TOP INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH 700 DEWPTS
AROUND 6 DEG C. 30 KT 700MB SPEED MAX WILL AID IN MODEST WAA/THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SUPPORT ONGOING STORMS OVER NWRN MO AND CENTRAL IA.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C ALONG WITH MUCAPES AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SVR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WEST
OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER FAR SERN NEB/NERN KS AS
PROFILER DATA FROM HILLSBORO KS INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS
ALREADY INCREASED TO AROUND 40 KTS. ORIENTATION OF THIS SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET ABOVE A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS
WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO FAR
NERN KS AND SERN NEB.

..CROSBIE.. 09/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

39789345 40779381 41159520 40939626 40389660 39799687
39169670 38499597 38209475 38539340 39169314 

WWWW