[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172107 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-172300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...FAR NWRN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE/ERN
OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172107Z - 172300Z

ISOLATED SVR T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN KS AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
SCENTRAL KS. OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH
THAT NEITHER A WW OR A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE WARRANTED.

DEEP CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINS WEAK TO NIL AT BEST
AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS CINH SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS FROM 30-40 DEG F ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS.
ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR  ALONG AND NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. COUPLED WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE THIS MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET.

..CROSBIE.. 09/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

37130001 36250102 35930091 36040041 36639961 37129904
37349827 37099723 37549704 37999759 38409828 38509885
38419920 37599968 

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