[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171633 
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-171830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN THROUGH ERN VA...SRN MD AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171633Z - 171830Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD AND EWD WITH
TIME INTO PARTS OF CNTRL...NRN AND ERN VA...SRN MD AND ERN NC. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS BY 18Z.

THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CONTINUE NEWD
THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS OF ERN TN/WRN NC. IVAN HAS TAKEN ON
EXTRA TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT LIFTING NEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND VA. WHAT APPEARS TO A ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT ON
LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD THROUGH W
CNTRL NC AND SW VA. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH
THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NC AND VA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO INTENSIFY IN THE WARM
SECTOR FROM ERN NC INTO CNTRL AND ERN VA WHERE CAP IS VERY WEAK.
STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES ENEWD THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. AN E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS N CNTRL VA-MD WILL LIKELY LIFT
NWD...ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION AS FAR N AS NRN VA AND SRN MD THIS
AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 09/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

34757724 36337741 37407775 37597946 38667826 38847690
37967594 35387621 

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