[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060412 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 802...

VALID 060412Z - 060615Z

CENTER OF LARGE T.S. FRANCES HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE EXTREME NERN
GULF TO THE NW OF TPA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF FL WITH SOME SLACKENING IN THE
SURFACE ISOBAR GRADIENT ACROSS SRN GA. THIS WEAKER GRADIENT IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN SOMEWHAT LOWER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SRN GA WHERE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS ACROSS
THE REGION RANGING FROM 25-35KT EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE EAST COAST.
WITHIN ABOUT 1KM OF THE SURFACE...A BELT OF ELY WINDS OF AT LEAST
60KT IS INDICATED BY VWP DATA FROM JAX...CHS...AND VAX. THIS VERY
STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS RESULTING IN EXTREME
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH FL AND INTO SRN GA.

GIVEN THIS AXIS OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS...ANY CELLULAR ELEMENTS/STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE FEEDER
BANDS ROTATING AROUND FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO
SPIN-UP BRIEF TORNADOES. THIS SITUATION CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST
PRONOUNCED WITH CELLS COMING ASHORE OVER SERN GA WHERE SOME CG LTG
IS BEING DETECTED. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH LESS
ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE PER LTG STRIKE DATA ...WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NERN FL. GIVEN LARGE AND VERY STRONG FLOW AROUND
FRANCES...TROPICAL CYCLONE SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AN
OCCASIONAL THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 09/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

28928085 29368508 31988513 31478083 

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