[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011928 
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-012130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ORE NEWD INTO NRN ID AND WRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 011928Z - 012130Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MTNS OF FAR NERN
ORE...NRN ID INTO WRN MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL MT BY MID
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN
20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN ORE...NRN ID AND WRN MT WHERE LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW/CONVERGENCE WAS BEING MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND REGION OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. A NARROW
ZONE OF LOWER 50S DEWPTS STILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID IN MLCAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. 40-50 KT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE
MTNS/HIGHER TERRAIN. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT...DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE 40-50 DEG
F. COMBINED WITH LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WILL AID
IN AN INCREASING TREND TOWARDS DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT
OVER THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 09/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

44741718 45331770 46491658 47511576 48591465 49111277
48810987 47850929 47020945 46251019 45151281 44821531 

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